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Price correction on PSA-10 Michael Jordan...
mintonlypls
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Last night on PWCC...a PSA-10 Michael Jordan RC sold for $450,000+...down from $750,000 in the Golden Auction. Is this the beginning of a price correction in the card market? I am watching the Reggie Jackson RC PSA-9 on Mile High to see if it sells for $100,000 like the last PSA-9.
mint_only_pls
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I don’t think it’s an overall correction, just that card. There are just too many to support that price in the short term. Low pop cards will continue to climb for now (in my opinion).
Did anyone truly think 750K was a legitimate price for that card?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
There are a number of other HOF rookies, particularly in football, that I watch that are selling at 50% or so of recent highs. So no, I don't think it's just the Jordan but I do think you have to look at it on a case by case basis. Nothing goes from the lower left to the upper right on a price chart forever or without interruption.
The Doomsday Collection
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1986 Topps Tiffany Bonds PSA 10 sold in Feb for 15,999.99. Most recent sales (3) on March 16 were 8600-9000. Interesting to see where sales are in the next few months. A correction was bound to happen.
Exactly Grote - those 750K sales were BS. I'm not sure this is a correction as much as the dump phase of pump and dump.
Predict all Jordan PSA-10 sales under $500K from here on out.
PWCC sale of a 1986 Jordan Sticker PSA 8 of $25k was a bit of a stretch also. At the time $10K was normal and now $5k is about average.
Speculating a few more were coming for sale. J m o
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
The PSA 7-9 of the key rookies (Henderson, Jeter, Rivera, A-Rod, etc) I have been tracking for a few months have settled down off their recent price spikes. Granted they are sill 2 to 3 times higher than what they were last fall. They peaked at a 4x to 5x high spike.
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
10 years from now I think $450,000 will look like a bargain for a PSA 10 Jordan RC. Still hurts selling my PSA 10 Jordan back in October but not nearly as much as when a couple sold for a little over $700,000.
Robb
We're watching different HOF football rookies then. The last dozen+ auctions I've watched have bested their all-time highs with days to go. Everything I see is still going nuts.
The thing with the 86 Jordan is that a lot of people do see it as a million dollar card. I mean we all know it will get there eventually but these jumps were just way too much and way to soon. Before those 738K "sales", the card was selling at 350K. It skipped the 400, 500 and 600K's. That was just mind boggling and unrealistic but exciting to watch however. Certainly created buzz. But I think from here on out, the card will settle at around $450K and above. That's still one hell of a jump from a card that could be had for just under 30K in the first half of 2019. Think about that for a second....
Apparently we are.
1990 score Emmitt Smith PSA 10 sold for $6,300, now routinely selling around $3,000
1989 score Troy Aikman PSA 10 sold for $1,800, now routinely selling around $780-1,000
1989 score Deion Sanders PSA 10 sold for $1,800, now selling around $900.
Same drop with 1989 score Michael irvin, 1989 topps traded Ttoy Aikman, etc. Others, like 1994 playoff Larry Allen, haven't had a run up in price in this mania.
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
Ah, I'm looking at things like
1971 Bradshaw PSA 8, which hadn't cracked $3k as recently as 4 weeks ago. All three sales since then have.
The last 1986 Jerry Rice PSA 10 jumped from $40k to $125k in a month.
1981 Joe Montana PSA 10 went from $45k to $87k in a month.
There should be a little slow down now that the NFL season is over. (Or at least I hope there will be.)
Some items are trading much less frequently as they are locked up in collections. So big numbers from January / February time frame are difficult as there isn't a good way to confirm if they have persisted or not.
A 1984 Topps John Elway PSA 10 sold for $20,500 in February and $8,562 last night at Memory Lane.
A 1981 Topps Joe Montana PSA 10 sold for $95,000 in January and $75,808 last night at Memory Lane.
A 1975 Topps Drew Pearson PSA 10 sold for $4,499.99 in early February, then $3,000 at Heritage 25 days later.
A 1990 Score Supplemental Emmit Smith PSA 10 (mentioned above having sold at $6,300) sold for $2,124 last night at Memory Lane.
Meanwhile, 1976 Walter Payton PSA 10 continues on it's climb, $79,900 at the beginning of February and $96,752 last night at Memory Lane.
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
If you like Jordan rookies, the best thing to do is get nicely centered ones in grades 1-10.
That way you have more assets that can reach all different classes of collectors in the future.
Can't look at one card and then make a sweeping generalization about the entire card market. And I also concur with those who said the high Jordan PSA 10 sales were not true sales--they were more like PR moves at best. Lots of us saw what was happening with the Jordan card in several grades and knew it was "steroidal" aka unnatural growth.
I watch Mantle, Ruth, and Gehrig and their prices are steadily upward. So zero corrections in that sector of the hobby.
confusious say entire market hinge upon ‘86 jordan and he who sleep w itchy butt wake w smelly finger.
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As others have stated, 80s, 90s, modern baseball rookies I track have come off their all time highs. 30-40% in some cases.
That was expected with higher pop cards.
VINTAGE has not backtracked but still trending upward.
T206, Goudey, and up thru the 60s (and you can throw the 70s in too) continue to realize strong prices.
This support my theory of low pop, high quality, mid and high grades, early years cards equals stronger price support with fewer realized auction pricing.
Vintage is still the blue chips
buying mantle semi-aggressively at 65% of fair market value. maybe.
send pics.
It's all depending on the supply, and if there have been plenty of a certain card on the market in recent months. The Jordans have had many 10s on the market recently, and there are only a finite number of buyers at that price point. A card like the Clemens Tiffany PSA 10 that went for $22K went strong, because it was the first one auctioned in a while. If 5 more came to the market in the next month, those prices wouldn't be sustained, but if we don't see another for a couple of months, I would guess it goes higher.
Keep your powder dry in a market where it is difficult to determine a fair price point on any particular card. That is my strategy for now...
Good advice Monte. I am doing that as well along with selling into a bull market. Have a few items I have sold plus a few more unopened and vintage I might list soon - 70’s racks and a few high end PSA cards of Mantle, Rose.... that I have doubles of as well as thinning some of the collection.
I buy what I like. It all comes down to availability on some of these cards. 1988 Bo Jackson fb PSA 10? Sure it is way down from the 3k spike because a ton became available. On the other hand a 66 Philly Butkus 8 sold for over 5k last week because they just do not become available often
I agree. With rookies going for moon money I have been focusing on second year cards.
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