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The 20 Most Condition Sensitive Baseball Rookies from the 1980s
ReggieCleveland
Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've compiled a spreadsheet of PSA pop report data for rookie cards from the 1980s. There's some interesting information in there if you're into this type of thing. A few no-brainers (1980 Topps Rickey Henderson) and a few surprises (at least to me). Thought I woud share the the 20 toughest according to PSA 10 percentage of total submissions and see if it would spark an interesting conversation.
A few disclaimers:
All "glossy" or "tiffany" versions get the G suffix. So a 1985TG is a 1985 Topps Tiffany and a 1987FG is 1987 Fleer Glossy. Other than that, I think the set identifications should be pretty self-explanatory.
I filtered the sheet to only show cards that have at least 1,000 total submissions to PSA. Obviously, there are some issues out there that are naturally tougher than others and haven't gotten to 1,000 submissions yet but I felt 1K was a decent sample size.
I have logged info for 299 cards so I feel everything that could be remotely considered hobby relevant is included. The sheet started as a tool for a personal collecting project so there are also 24 cards from 1990 and 2 cards from 1991. It's doubling as a checklist for my project so I'm sure there are a lot of cards included in the list that many would consider not remotely hobby relevant. But all key rookies are included.
Hopefully the Excel copy/paste maintains format. Any thoughts?
[SEE BELOW FOR BETTER FORMATTING, THANKS BOB!]
A few disclaimers:
All "glossy" or "tiffany" versions get the G suffix. So a 1985TG is a 1985 Topps Tiffany and a 1987FG is 1987 Fleer Glossy. Other than that, I think the set identifications should be pretty self-explanatory.
I filtered the sheet to only show cards that have at least 1,000 total submissions to PSA. Obviously, there are some issues out there that are naturally tougher than others and haven't gotten to 1,000 submissions yet but I felt 1K was a decent sample size.
I have logged info for 299 cards so I feel everything that could be remotely considered hobby relevant is included. The sheet started as a tool for a personal collecting project so there are also 24 cards from 1990 and 2 cards from 1991. It's doubling as a checklist for my project so I'm sure there are a lot of cards included in the list that many would consider not remotely hobby relevant. But all key rookies are included.
Hopefully the Excel copy/paste maintains format. Any thoughts?
[SEE BELOW FOR BETTER FORMATTING, THANKS BOB!]
0
Comments
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
Thinking of ripping some more 87 update and rookies sets now.
Second, how'd you do that Bob? I'd love to know.
Jim
Don't waste your time and fees listing on ebay before getting in touch me by PM or at gregmo32@aol.com !
<< <i>The worst part for me was that I didn't bother scrolling down to the next post to see the improved formatting. I stared at it for ten minutes and found it fascinating. I love to try to dissect all of the different factors that account for the percentages. >>
Yeah, sorry about that. I edited my original post so that won't happen to anyone else.
I agree about the factors that go into all of this. There's all sorts of weird, useless pieces of information that I've discovered. For instance, 1986 Fleer Update is Jose Canseco's toughest mainstream issue from 86, even tougher than the 86 Fleer Update Bonds card.
The 1987 Donruss Rookies McGwire makes some sense. It was the #1 card in the set and those sets were wrapped incredibly tight in the cellophane and then tossed into a thin box.
The 1990 Bowman Sosa was surprising to me as well. Not sure what the factors are that go into that one but it certainly seems very difficult.
The 1987 Fleer Update McGwire was odd to me as well, until I started looking at the ones available and saw that they're all off-centered. Even the 10's I've seen have had poor centering (for a 10).
Don't waste your time and fees listing on ebay before getting in touch me by PM or at gregmo32@aol.com !
<< <i>I really, really wish there were a way to see the "historical" population reports. By that I mean, to look at the same cards you have listed there, and see what their numbers looked like in 2013, 2012, 2008, 2004, etc. I think that sort of information would go a long way to proving or disproving the belief some people have that PSA "targets" certain cards for additional scrutiny. >>
Yes, sort of an etymology of a card's pop report. This was what I was referring to when I started the "What would you like to see from PSA?" thread about a week ago.
Great reference to download - thanx!
<< <i>Cool idea. If/when that Fernando pops it could break all kinds of records for 80s baseball. >>
Why is the Fernando such an impossible psa 10?
T222's PSA 1 or better
<< <i>Great chart. Thanks for taking the time to put it together. It surprises me that only 1091 Fernando's have been graded. Just seems like more people would chase it >>
Most of them aren't worth trying due to either centering or PD.
Thanks,
David (LD_Ferg)
1985 Topps Football (starting in psa 8) - #9 - started 05/21/06
I collect: 80’s Rookies and 86 Fleer Basketball
Showcase link
Collecting Tony Perez PSA and Rookie Baseball PSA
The answer to your question is June through September of 1998.
Don't waste your time and fees listing on ebay before getting in touch me by PM or at gregmo32@aol.com !
<< <i>I thought it would be fun to see them so I put together the linked showcase. I am missing a couple as noted.
Showcase link >>
Yeah, I can't imagine another card from the 1980s was ever as hot as the 1985 Topps McGwire was in the 1998 season (and subsequent seasons as well). It should be noted that if you sort my spreadsheet by PSA 9 % (of all cards with at least 1,000 total submissions), the 1985 Topps McGwire is the toughest card to get in a 9 grade out of all ~300 cards, even tougher than the 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson. While the McGwire certainly has more than its fair share of condition issues, I also think that the percentage is lowered because everyone and their mother were submitting every 85 McGwire they could get their hands on for grading back then.
I would imagine that the relative quality of most submissions is the same across the board with a few exceptions. The 1985 Topps McGwire is almost certainly the biggest exception. This was THE record in baseball and the entire country was McGwire/Sosa crazy back then, not just the die hard card collectors. McGwire's popularity peak certainly surpasses the popularity peak of any other card on the list, even that of HOFers like Ripken, Gwynn, Henderson, etc, who had spectacular careers but never achieved a single popularity peak like what McGwire had in 1998.
Also, Shop at Home.
<< <i>
<< <i>I thought it would be fun to see them so I put together the linked showcase. I am missing a couple as noted.
Showcase link >>
Yeah, I can't imagine another card from the 1980s was ever as hot as the 1985 Topps McGwire was in the 1998 season (and subsequent seasons as well). It should be noted that if you sort my spreadsheet by PSA 9 % (of all cards with at least 1,000 total submissions), the 1985 Topps McGwire is the toughest card to get in a 9 grade out of all ~300 cards, even tougher than the 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson. While the McGwire certainly has more than its fair share of condition issues, I also think that the percentage is lowered because everyone and their mother were submitting every 85 McGwire they could get their hands on for grading back then.
I would imagine that the relative quality of most submissions is the same across the board with a few exceptions. The 1985 Topps McGwire is almost certainly the biggest exception. This was THE record in baseball and the entire country was McGwire/Sosa crazy back then, not just the die hard card collectors. McGwire's popularity peak certainly surpasses the popularity peak of any other card on the list, even that of HOFers like Ripken, Gwynn, Henderson, etc, who had spectacular careers but never achieved a single popularity peak like what McGwire had in 1998.
Also, Shop at Home. >>
Good points you make...and the same point I have made in the past on these boards. When cards still sell for a decent amount in a PSA 8 or 9, the population report is going to be dominated by a high volume of lower grade cards. This makes the % graded a 10 often misleading.
On the other hand, for cards that don't or barely bring back your grading fees in an 8 or a 9, only "gem" looking cards are going to be submitted. In such cases, it is more telling to just look at how many 10s are in the pop report...rather than the % of submitted cards that are graded a 10.
You're all welcome. Hopefully you're reading this from inside your flying jacuzzi that's made out of endangered elephant tusk ivory.
Arthur
Nice list and thanks for sharing. I didn't know the 1985 Fleer Clemens was that tough. Only 160 in PSA 10.
Just realized the list isn't visible. Instead of dealing with the formatting issue, I'm just going to copy from the showcase mcholke created. At the time of this thread's creation, these were the 20 toughest PSA 10s of the 1980s (PSA 10 strike rate, total submissions > 1,000).
(in no particular order)
1981 TOPPS 302 DODGERS FUTURE STAR PERCONTE/SCIOSCIA/VALENZUELA
1980 TOPPS 482 RICKEY HENDERSON
1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE
1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS
1982 TOPPS 21 ORIOLES FUTURE STARS BONNER/RIPKEN/SCHNEIDER
1983 TOPPS 482 TONY GWYNN
1982 TOPPS TRADED 98T CAL RIPKEN JR.
1983 TOPPS 498 WADE BOGGS
1985 FLEER 155 ROGER CLEMENS
1982 FLEER 176 CAL RIPKEN JR.
1987 FLEER UPDATE U-76 MARK McGWIRE
1990 BOWMAN 312 SAMMY SOSA
1984 DONRUSS 248 DON MATTINGLY
1987 DONRUSS ROOKIES 1 MARK McGWIRE
1985 LEAF 99 ROGER CLEMENS
1983 TOPPS 83 RYNE SANDBERG
1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT
1990 SCORE 558 SAMMY SOSA
1985 TOPPS TIFFANY 401 MARK McGWIRE
1985 TOPPS TIFFANY 181 ROGER CLEMENS
Arthur
ETA: The showcase was missing two cards. I went back into my spreadsheet, which I saved a copy from April 2014, and added the missing two -- 1985 Tiffany of Clemens and McGwire.
In the not entirely unlikely event that Mike Scioscia makes the HoF as a manager, then the most condition sensitive rookie card of the '80s will become much more desirable.
They're not listed by difficulty. The toughest is the '80 Henderson.
Arthur
Thanks Arthur!
24 Hendersons in 10, 0 Scioscia.
You're correct, my bad. At the time of the original spreadsheet, the Fernando/Scioscia didn't have over 1,000 total submissions so I think I added it for S&Gs because it was a legitimately popular rookie but didn't factor it into "the toughest" for the sake of conversation. But I should have, since I added it to the list. Mea culpa.
I think I would still label the Henderson as the toughest for the sake of the conversation. A 0.09% strike rate on 14,000+ submissions is pretty ridiculous.
Arthur
In your consideration of which one is the "toughest" is there any thought given to the fact that in a lot of instances, folks aren't going for a 10, they might just be wanting to get a really nice example slabbed? For example, given the level of fake 84 D Mattingly cards out there, or in basketball the 86 Fleer Jordans, people are often quite hesitant to buy raw. Slabbed gives a level of confidence for amateur buyers. In other cases, folks just want to have a slabbed example of a popular card, like the 85 Clemens, any of the big three from 83, the 82 Ripkens, etc. I suspect that the high rate of submissions for some of those cards is simply a by-product of submissions taking place not because folks legitimately think they have a potential 10 on their hands, but because they just want a nice example slabbed. A higher submission rate would drive the 10 rate down. Just a thought and a question about methodology. Of course, how you would ever determine that is beyond me!
kevin
It's a good question, Kevin, and why I only included cards with total submission of 1,000 or more. I felt like that was a good sample size without limiting the available pool to too few cards.
While there are certain cards that get sent in no matter what, I don't think it happens enough with any of the 1980s cards to warrant statistical inaccuracy. Certainly the '80 Henderson and '85 McGwire have seen periods where great numbers have been submitted but even with those cards it's highly unlikely that anyone is sending in a low-grade Hendersons and mid-grade McGwires.
Other than a few outliers, I imagine most everything being sent in for Ripken, Sandberg, Mattingly, Boggs, etc. is being done so because the submitter believes they've got a shot at a 9. Few, if any, are sending in knowing they're going to get 7s.
So while it may happen, I don't think it happens with a frequency that would alter the statistical results.
Arthur
As far as HOF rookie cards from the 1980s, I believe the lowest total population in a PSA 10 is still the 1989 Topps Big Baseball Randy Johnson card (only 17 in PSA 10). Centering is definitely an issue with that card and unopened Series 3 product is certainly not readily available if someone were to try to pull any fresh quantity to submit for grading. I've felt that the lower availability of those series 3 boxes was likely due to the popularity of 1989 Upper Deck. By the time Topps was rolling out their 3rd series, everyone was head first into Upper Deck and nobody was ordering any of the Topps Big series 3 product.
You certainly have a valid point. Some cards (but not many) also have enough value that it's worth subbing hoping for a 9.
That's not going to mean too much. No one cares that the Joe Schlabatnik rookie card is harder to get in a 10 than the Nolan Ryan.
All the cards on the list are highly sought after players.
I certainly would send in a Rickey Henderson rookie even if I thought it was an 7, but you still end up with only 24 PSA 10's out of 20.450 total submissions.
On some of the newer cards you might get a slight difference in the ratio if the % is really close and one player get submitted a whole lot more than the other.
Eliminate all the PSA AUTH through PSA 7 on the Mark McGwire card and his % goes from .0066 to .0085 or from 1 card out of every 150 to 1 out of every 116. Either way you look at it an amazingly tough card to find in a 10.
No need to speculate. In 2014, the lowest total PSA 10 pops for a HOFer rookie card in the 1980s (excluding MiLB cards) was:
1981 OPC Raines (4)
1991 Studio Bagwell (5)
1982 Fleer Lee Smith Error (8)
1985 Leaf Puckett (10)
1987 OPC Bonds (10)
1991 Desert Shield Chipper (14)
1983 OPC Sandberg (16)
Arthur
Fleer 1982 Lee Smith error always a hard one to try and track down
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