it's really hard to believe how cheap the following cards are:
olb31
Posts: 3,329 ✭✭✭✭✭
lolich, kaat, tiant, john(heck he has a famous surgery named for him), nettles, oliver, madlock, buckner, parker. these guys were really good and one aaron judge rookie would sell for more than all of these.
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Aaron Judge has played 4 years and is a 2x all-star, SS, ROY. and hit 52 HRs in one season. It's reasonable to believe he has serious long-term HOF potential. The names you listed, while solid players, are not hall of famers.
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All those old guys are more accomplished and much more in the conversation for the Hall of Fame than Aaron Judge will ever be.
I'm pretty sure all of them have actually been eliminated from HOF election at this point. So no they will not be.
The market decides value based on perceived potential among other things. Prospects of perceived future stars will always carry a price tag.
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The long term HoF probability on Judge would be rather low if not for being a Yankee. Should he avoid injury his career should mirror Ryan Howard. Both made their late jump to the big leagues at 25. Both peaks on their 50 home run seas then started seeing decline. Ryan Howard saw a steeper decline in his early 30's while Judge is just a couple years from 30. So basically expect a couple more solid season from Judge before you start seeing him slow down and his HOF chances evaporating in front of those one valuable auto rookie eyes!
Sports cards have always been a popularity contest. I open vintage packs on my youtube channel and someone always makes a comment about the pack is bogus or been resealed. They don't know stars from the past. One guy even called Tom Seaver a common.
I agree completely about the recency bias in the card market. It's just that you were listing Judge's accomplishments like it was impressive or something. Those other guys have all done more to be considered Hall of Famers than Judge, and have yet to get in. The veteran's committee periodically brings names up for discussion, and those other guys still get brought up in the conversation from time to time to some degree. I doubt Judge ever has to worry about adding HOF to his scribble of an autograph..
I'm not saying that I necessarily support the idea that any or all of those veterans are HOF worthy. But they are accomplished players in the game. It's not like they're nobodies. You say they have zero chance of getting in, and I believe the chances for most of those guys getting in at some point are at a minimum more than zero. Whatever their chances, I'm just not sure Judge ever even reaches that level of consideration.
I'm not convinced Judge will even be able to play the requisite 10 years to be included on the ballot, to be honest, let alone compile the numbers to actually get in.
Judge's ceiling is likely a comparable career to Prince Fielder, who had 3 Silver Sluggers and 2 Homerun Derby championships. Not the HOF.
Judge is already 27 and only has 360 games under his belt. If he can’t stay healthy in his mid 20s I don’t see how he stays in the lineup through his mid 30s. That 52 HR season is a major outlier, on pace for around 30 this year full season.
Sports are funny, he could get healthy and play 13 more years and hit 500 but I don’t see it.
Ps. Baseball reference has him at 282 pounds. I get he’s a big guy but that seems like a lot of weight to carry, even at 6’7. Wondering how accurate that is and if it is, if there is any correlation to his injury history. Dude doesn’t look heavy at all but thats a big number.
He's a Yankee, he's popular, he had a 52 HR season. That's why his cards are up in price. People think he could still have potential as well.
I thought his cards where so expensive because he played at Fresno State
Wow I had no idea he was that old. No matter who you are it's extremely rare for someone to debut at 25 and make the HOF. I like the Howard/Fielder comparisons.
Arthur
The card that would most likely be in the HOF registry can be had for less than $25 in PSA 10. I’m a buyer at $25 for all the other PSA 10 rookies mentioned in the OP.
You are correct about judge. To late of a start and to large of a frame for an extended career. Guys who weigh 280 pounds who play 15 to 20 years are very very rare. I have real concerns about trouts longevity for the same reasons. Playing center field and carrying 245 pounds is not a recipe for a long career. Both guys will be plagued with knee and lower body injuries in their 30's.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
No one under 50 knows who they are...
That's definitely why they're expensive in this area!
Aaron Judge should not be mentioned in the same sentence as the HOF, give me a break 🙄
Newsflash: people are fans of and collect players— such as Judge— for reasons other than their HOF prospects. See Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, among others.
So demand and prices for cards are not solely tethered to HOF prospects. Not everyone is trying to invest and make money off baseball cards’ future values LOL.
Guys like me enjoy cards of Judge and Mattingly and Strawberry and Gardner, etc., etc.,— even if guys on chatrooms are hating. So hate on.
As a Fresnan that is an excellent answer!
Don’t see much hate here, just a convo around a guy that was/is super hyped.
Collect whoever you like but lets not rewrite history - he is so collectable because of the 52 HR season. He was hyped on this board like crazy and guys absolutely bought into that hype and made investment type purchases.
We only allowed to talk about a player when he shines bright?
No, of course not— but all the talk above was exclusively about HOF prospects. And there are more drivers for popularity and collectability than that single one. I don’t see anyone in this thread trying to rewrite history.
Curious, when you say guys “made investment type purchases,” how can you divine what type of purchase a particular card purchase is, i.e., investment or otherwise?
Not any newsflash in your post, I think everyone gets that part of the hobby. And thank you for the green light to hate on with anything Yankee related 😂
Supply and demand.
This is exactly right. While they were very good, maybe even great, they weren't good enough for the next generation to grab ahold of them. Even I, at 48, although I know who these players are, I'm certainly not going out of my way to collect them.
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I have no idea why anyone buys a particular card. But prospecting is a real thing for modern and “investing” is where the hobby has gone. I am sure there are guys paying thousands of dollars for rare variants in high grade for no other reason then they love the player but I suspect most of the guys buying these incredibly expensive cards see them as at least some sort of alternative investment.
The guy that give no fooks about the future value of his high grade rare cards would be a serious outlier. I can’t imagine this is a controversial position?
I haven’t focused on the modern baseball market that last 5 years or so but if Judge plays 10 more seasons with around 400 HR and he leads the team to a couple of WS wins, wouldn’t he get into the HOF?
Call me back when he has done it.
Judging by your profile pic,I will assume we where both at the KISS show at the Save Mart Center last year?
Incorrect. They still have a shot with Veterans committee. Much like Lee Smith and Harold Baines this year.
I think Tommy John and Jim Kaat both have a chance. THe only pitcher with more wins than them and not in the HOF is Clemens. I am not counting the two pitchers from the 1880's. Kaat has 16 gold gloves. John has more wins than anyone and was the guinea pig for what is now a common surgery for pitchers. With today's pitchers going less innings and winning less games, there win totals may look bigger over time.
I can’t believe anyone thinks Tommy John should be in the hall of fame. A 3.34 ERA and a 1.28 Whip, and a lot of wins because of pitching for 26 years for the Yankees and Dodgers. Really?
TJ is 20th all time in innings pitched, and his ERA+ is better than several pitchers in the HOF. He was significantly better than Morris or Hunter. He had a better ERA+, and pitched 1000 more innings than either. I’m not saying he should be in, just that it’s not a silly idea.
His WAR is higher than at least 20 pitchers in the HOF.
Jim Kaat should be in. From 1962 to 1976 Kaat was an elite pitcher garnering nearly 250 wins in that period of time. The only time you find pitchers that maintained this level of excellence for that kind of duration is in the hall of fame.
Lolich , Kaat, Madlock belong.
Shifting gears off of the yankees but i think the original topic was cheap cards of really good players. How about Randy Johnson? He was truly great for a long time and his graded RC's are super cheap. So isnt that proof that it is all about popularity?? People hate the yankees, Except the collectors. just my 2 cents