How can SMR values be so far off for so long?

RookieWax · June 20, 2019 9:09AM

I'm sure there are hundreds of similar examples out there with other cards, but when looking up prices for a 1969 Topps Wilt Chamberlain I noticed SMR values are not even close in all grades. For example, current SMR value in a PSA 6 is $90. In reality, that card has been selling in the $400 to $600 range for many months. Even going back 2 years, none have sold for under $200.

Stone193 · June 20, 2019 9:32AM

I think the PSA auction link would be of more value. I'm with you on SMR - I do like it as a reference to cards tho.

LINK

LarkinCollector · June 20, 2019 9:32AM

Price guides can't keep up with market changes across the breadth of the card market, never have, never will. APR/VCP/eBay completed are all better options than any "price guide". I guess PSA could feed recent data from APR into SMR, but that would just duplicate what's already available in APR.

The only thing I find price guides useful for is ballparking rarity/desirability on oddball items that don't come available very often.

DBesse27 · June 20, 2019 9:38AM

@LarkinCollector said:
Price guides can't keep up with market changes across the breadth of the card market, never have, never will. APR/VCP/eBay completed are all better options than any "price guide". I guess PSA could feed recent data from APR into SMR, but that would just duplicate what's already available in APR.

The only thing I find price guides useful for is ballparking rarity/desirability on oddball items that don't come available very often.

This. 100%

mtcards · June 20, 2019 10:44AM

Agree with the above comments. There are too many cards, too many venues, too many sales to accurately print a price guide with any degree of accuracy. Look at Beckett, 99% of their cards can be had for less than the "low book" and those that arent are generally over "high book". There are several insert sets I collect that hasnt had their prices changed in years yet there hasnt been any of the star cards sell for less than 50% higher than book price.

Desert_Ice_Sports · June 20, 2019 10:55AM

PSA keeps printing SMR because it's profitable for them to sell the inside advertising, and distribute the magazine... Savvy collectors and dealers read the articles and ignore the price guide... Unfortunately, novice collectors still think the price guide is accurate.

Last week, I got an eBay message from a collector offering me $200 for a group of PSA graded 1970 topps basketball cards... He said he 'researched' the values and that his offer was for market value... Turns out he used SMR, where the values totaled just over $200 for the group... The problem is, the actual market value of the cards was $900.

HighGradeLegends · June 20, 2019 11:03AM

@LarkinCollector said:
Price guides can't keep up with market changes across the breadth of the card market, never have, never will. APR/VCP/eBay completed are all better options than any "price guide". I guess PSA could feed recent data from APR into SMR, but that would just duplicate what's already available in APR.

The only thing I find price guides useful for is ballparking rarity/desirability on oddball items that don't come available very often.

This.

Ebay is one of many market places and recent sales work well for instant trends for that market. SMR accounts for more markets. So there is variance. In the end, it is simply a guide, not absolute.

ArtVandelay · June 20, 2019 11:05AM

SMR is way off in many areas. One of the most glaring problems is 1972 high number football. They currently have the commons listed at the same price as the regular series commons yet they are generally at least 15x that price.

One question. If PSA finds a problem say with a grading and needs to refund the customer do they base the refund off SMR?

CommemKing · June 20, 2019 11:43AM

PCGS keeps their price guide for coins a lot better than PSA and SMR keeps theirs. PCGS prices are always fluctuating with the market trend.

DBesse27 · June 20, 2019 12:01PM

@Desert_Ice_Sports said:
PSA keeps printing SMR because it's profitable for them to sell the inside advertising, and distribute the magazine... Savvy collectors and dealers read the articles and ignore the price guide... Unfortunately, novice collectors still think the price guide is accurate.

Last week, I got an eBay message from a collector offering me $200 for a group of PSA graded 1970 topps basketball cards... He said he 'researched' the values and that his offer was for market value... Turns out he used SMR, where the values totaled just over $200 for the group... The problem is, the actual market value of the cards was $900.

Like he said. I enjoy the articles.

LOTSOS · June 20, 2019 12:15PM

@Desert_Ice_Sports said:
PSA keeps printing SMR because it's profitable for them to sell the inside advertising, and distribute the magazine... Savvy collectors and dealers read the articles and ignore the price guide... Unfortunately, novice collectors still think the price guide is accurate.

Last week, I got an eBay message from a collector offering me $200 for a group of PSA graded 1970 topps basketball cards... He said he 'researched' the values and that his offer was for market value... Turns out he used SMR, where the values totaled just over $200 for the group... The problem is, the actual market value of the cards was $900.

Sounds like that crazy Sabres collector guy on here. Remember when he couldn’t understand why you were asking so much for a 70’ OPC Perreault RC in PSA 6? Some people!

Stone193 · June 20, 2019 12:22PM

I guess I'm a publications guy and enjoy receiving them.

I get SMR, SCD and Beckett Baseball.

I enjoy the featured collectors in SMR and SCD has really good articles on players - especially the new HOFers. And Beckett keeps me up to date on what the modern market is doing.

On our forum. I like the fact that people link articles they find from difference news outlets.

olb31 · June 20, 2019 12:33PM

I have complained about this for years. They have an on-line price guide that should be easy to maintain. Each year could be brought to you by a dealer or advertiser (on the internet) and just do away with the print SMR.

1952 Topps Baseball Updated Graded Prices are brought to you by PWCC (please visit us on EBAY for our high end PSA card auctions).

They could use this type of heading and of course some branding on every year, make etc. Just sale the page to an advertiser and that advertiser could assist with the update. If the price guide were maintained properly just think how much more advertising $$ PSA could make, every make, every year, brought to you by an advertiser (for a cost of course).

DBesse27 · June 20, 2019 12:55PM

“If the price guide were maintained properly” ..... then that would be the first time in history that any price guide was maintained properly. Cmon people, give up the antiquated idea of a price guide! Beckett wasn’t accurate in the 80s or 90s, nor Tuff Stuff, and price guides are not accurate now. Never have been, for all the reasons @LarkinCollector outlined.

ArtVandelay · June 20, 2019 1:16PM

It's nearly impossible to keep the prices up-to-date at all times. But, I do think it's not impossible to update glaring errors in the pricing. 1972 High Series football is the perfect example. You can the commons for the 1-263 priced the same as the High Series 264-351. A simple correction could easily rectify this as the high series has always commanded a much higher price for all the cards in the series. 1971 and 1972 Baseball is very similar.

DBesse27 · June 20, 2019 2:02PM

Art, I’m confused, is there some issue with pricing for 72 high series football?

Stone193 · June 20, 2019 4:41PM

Beckett wasn’t accurate in the 80s or 90s, nor Tuff Stuff, and price guides are not accurate now. Never have been, for all the reasons @LarkinCollector outlined.

Agree Dan
E.g.: 2019 Bowman Julio Rodriguez (green shimmer) chrome auto #/99 - Beckett value: $800; actual sales: 2 - $255, 275.

edit: might they go up? Sure.

skrezyna23 · June 20, 2019 6:23PM

SMR pricing should be discontinued. Keep the rest of the stuff people seem to enjoy.

Desert_Ice_Sports · June 20, 2019 7:44PM

Someone at PSA told me they're in the process of integrating the APR into SMR... Although, that was a year ago.

HighGradeLegends · June 20, 2019 7:55PM

@DBesse27 said:
“If the price guide were maintained properly” ..... then that would be the first time in history that any price guide was maintained properly. Cmon people, give up the antiquated idea of a price guide! Beckett wasn’t accurate in the 80s or 90s, nor Tuff Stuff, and price guides are not accurate now. Never have been, for all the reasons @LarkinCollector outlined.

exactly. it is a guide

DBesse27 · June 20, 2019 8:00PM

@HighGradeLegends said:

@DBesse27 said:
“If the price guide were maintained properly” ..... then that would be the first time in history that any price guide was maintained properly. Cmon people, give up the antiquated idea of a price guide! Beckett wasn’t accurate in the 80s or 90s, nor Tuff Stuff, and price guides are not accurate now. Never have been, for all the reasons @LarkinCollector outlined.

exactly. it is a guide

A bad one. Any guide worth anything will at least point you in the right general direction. SMR almost never does that.

erikthredd · June 21, 2019 10:00AM

Does Beckett actually still print and sell their price guides for each/combined sports? I use to love going to my LCS two tuesdays a month back in the 90's to the mid 00's when the football & basketball monthly price guides got delivered even if I had no intention to buy anything else. Right before I left the hobby for awhile Beckett had just stopped printing them monthly and IIRC it was either quarterly or yearly for each sport.

HighGradeLegends · June 21, 2019 11:07AM

@erikthredd said:
Does Beckett actually still print and sell their price guides for each/combined sports? I use to love going to my LCS two tuesdays a month back in the 90's to the mid 00's when the football & basketball monthly price guides got delivered even if I had no intention to buy anything else. Right before I left the hobby for awhile Beckett had just stopped printing them monthly and IIRC it was either quarterly or yearly for each sport.

Tuff Stuff all day baby!!!!!

hyperchipper09 · June 21, 2019 1:09PM

Lets make sure the professional graders and authenticators can do that job as outlined and not like what we have seen come to light recently then we can attack the problem of an out of whack price wise, though still enjoyable(at times) to read periodical.

How can SMR values be so far off for so long?

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