Idiot

brucemo · November 8, 2002 1:21PM

'86-7 Fleer #131 Worthy PSA-9

Oh well, at least I'm through with the danged set, assuming my seller delivers the cards I won.

bruce

Kurt · November 8, 2002 1:27PM

Assuming you get it(knocking on wood), congrats on the set. How long did it take you??

coachh · November 8, 2002 1:38PM

Congrats on the set.

brucemo · November 8, 2002 1:51PM

Thanks. It took about a year, but I've been buying slabbed cards since July only.

I think that doing it in 9 was the right idea. If anyone is thinking about doing it, they can probably do it pretty cheaply, because there are an awful lot of 9's out there now. SMR has dropped across the board on these since I started, and you can get these on eBay for about 1/2 SMR in some cases.

Doing the set in 8 would be pretty fun, too, I think.

bruce

downgoesfrazier · November 8, 2002 1:55PM

So you paid 200 bucks for a 125 dollar card. You accomplished your goal...hardly makes you an idiot. If it does make you an idiot, you can find solace in the fact you are not alone. Congatulations to you on the set completion.

Vargha · November 8, 2002 2:55PM

Well, it seems like you're preaching to us in the Idiots Anonymous Club anyway.

Bruce: "Hi, my name is brucemo and I'm an idiot".

The rest of the posters on the Set Registry Forum: "Hi Bruce!"

zardoz51 · November 8, 2002 9:47PM

Hi Bruce

You are not alone

1420sports · November 8, 2002 10:20PM

I wholeheartedly agree with Vargha and downgoes .... if there was one card I needed to finish a set I would not even think twice about what you did.

Congrats

toppsgun · November 8, 2002 10:29PM

Gimme an "S"
Gimme an "N"
Gimme an "I"
Gimme a "P"
Gimme an "E"

Whatssat spell?

Certainly not "IDIOT." I can rearrange the letters, but I still don't get "IDIOT."

Just think. You made the seller happy (maybe ecstatic). You made the runner-up bidder happy he didn't have to pay $201 for a $125 card. And you're happy to have completed the set. Now all these board members are happy to congratulate you. Let's party!

PlayBall · November 8, 2002 10:33PM

For the record, SMR is $75.

BTW, I would do the same thing. May we ask what your "max" bid was?

Cubfan · November 8, 2002 11:13PM

Been there, done that Bruce. Just completing a set myself, I would still have to think that the feeling of completing the set greatly outweighs any "idiot" feelings....I know it did for me.

Congrats on your set !!!

brucemo · November 8, 2002 11:27PM

You can figure out what the max bid was by looking at the bid, since it wasn't a full increment above the #2 bid. So my max was what I won the card for.

That card is actually very hard to find on eBay. It seems like you can get dozens of these cards on eBay every day, but that card has sold once in the past month.

bruce

acowa · November 9, 2002 12:09AM

Bruce...I will join you for the therapy.

Hi...I am Alan...and I am an idiot...

I paid 2x SMR routinely for 1967 commons in PSA 8...giving a new meaning to waitiltheytrytosell.

Regards,

Alan

downgoesfrazier · November 9, 2002 2:19AM

Playball,
What does the SMR ever have to do with the actual value of a high-end sportscard? I'm thinking of creating my own price guide for the things around my house. I've got a half-eaten jar of Skippy for 40 bucks...this is the smear of jelly variation...50 bucks...any takers. Just buy the freakin' card and stop looking cards up in that jurassic magazine. The articles and ads are fine, but the price guide portion is bordering on ludicrous. The 125 dollar price people are referring to is what the third highest bidder showed. That is typically a strong indicator of the current market on a card. Bruce, again, many congrats.

downgoesfrazier · November 9, 2002 2:25AM

Alan,
Laugh out loud funny. I'd like to add "I'm an idiot...and proud to pay 20 dollars per '77 common in lots of 50 just to see what the gloss was like in the vending run."

1420sports · November 9, 2002 2:34AM

SMR is a guide only and should only be used as such. For all 1971 Topps and Pete Rose collectors, SMR on the 71 PSA 8 Rose is 250+, but we all know that it is a 400-450 dollar card.

SMR can help in a way to determine value, but if a dealer is charging 100 for a nice example of a card with an SMR of 75, 9 times out of ten it will sell.

Mantlefan · November 9, 2002 2:46AM

SMR is losing it's value more and more lately. Population reports and individual collector's needs are the key now. Witness the 1957 Topps Baseball Wars where lo-pop commons are going for 5x-10x SMR. Paying too much for a card I really need never bothers me. Losing an auction on a card I really need....that drives me nuts!

brucemo · November 9, 2002 4:02AM

In '86 Fleer basketball, people are submitting lots of these, so you see what amounts to PSA-9 set breaks often. I think that the price trend on these will be down in the near term at least, as the market digests these. The card I bought was an eBay rarity, but there are supposedly 117 of these out there somewhere, and I paid $200 for a card with an SMR of $75, which is 2.5X SMR.

Was this objectively smart? I doubt it. I got tired of being patient. I thought I was down to one card, and then I realized that a) one of my supposed 9's was an 8, and b) a supposed Power-Seller had gone bad on me (and a bunch of other people) and stolen $31 of my money and left me missing another one. The first time anyone has stolen money from me on eBay, by the way. I decided to finish the set NOW.

I feel a little sick about doing this set, but that too bad. The set is trending down and will probably continue to do this, so I know that I'll see that card come by for a lot less.

I don't feel in any way sick about doing vintage. The 50's vintage are different. The pops in 50's vintage are usually in the low double digits, so they are much scarcer, and you have to believe that there are fewer of them out there ready to be sent in.

Okay, talking about SMR now. SMR is never going to be completely accurate if you are an eBay buyer, because you have to deal with the following:

1) Real population rarity.
2) eBay scarcity and glut.
3) Crazy people.

The combination of the above leads to price volatility. Let's say that you run '86 Fleer #92 Alvin Robertson on eBay. Nobody needs this card, so it will go for the minimum if you open it at $9.99, or maybe one increment above that. The seller can't open it higher because it will close with no bids. I have four of them that I'd love to get rid of for 2/3 SMR.

There are lots of these #131 Worthy cards, but none has shown up on eBay for a long time, and two of us needed it, and we were both crazy, and I know, and probably he knows, that it's in a really bad spot on the sheet, so it closes at $200, which is a lot of money for a card that is not old enough to buy cigarettes.

The same kind of thing is true with the real vintage stuff, only it's a lot more serious. Rather than someone paying $60 for a card with an SMR of $18, they are paying $1500 for a card with an SMR of $50.

SMR cannot keep up with this. It can't predict eBay scarcity or glut, and it can't predict crazy people. In '53 Bowman Color, there are cards that sell for anywhere between 1/2x SMR and 3x SMR. I've seen #122 Serena PSA-7 go for $50 (mine) or $300 (someone else's). No price guide can handle this.

What you as a buyer have to do is apply windage to the prices. You have to see the price as the target, and try to understand conditions that might push the price off target. There have been a series of traditional corrections you can apply to get the right price for stuff, or at least to allow for a better guess. Anyone who is doing a vintage set needs to be able to figure out what these corrections are, depending upon very transitory market conditions. No guide can supply them because there are thousands of cards, and conditions for each card change every day.

Having said that, I think that SMR is excellent.

bruce

PROMETHIUS88 · November 9, 2002 4:50AM

bruce..there were more than 2 of you who needed that card! i too was watching as i have been with most of the 86 fleer psa 9's that have been listed in the last month. now that i have deceided to do this set in psa 9, i would like to apply for "idiot" status as well?!?! i'm sure i will be doing the same in the near future so i don't blame you! also, if you do have some decent/centered 9's that are extras, shoot me an email or a pm and maybe we can work some deals! thanks and congrats!! tim

Vargha · November 9, 2002 5:58AM

Crazy people are really messing things up everywhere; not just in the collectibles arena.

Yzerman19C · November 9, 2002 7:34AM

Yzerman19C · November 9, 2002 7:38AM

e

Ive seen people do alot worse than pay $205 for $100 card. Just this past week on ebay someone paid $1025. for a PSA 10 1981 Donruss Tim Raines. I just shook my head

mrichards · November 9, 2002 1:13PM

Congratulations Bruce. Great Set. The word Idiot comes to my mind alot, but only when I win something for my set and pay 5-10x SMR. The great thing is the accomplishment. The really bad thing is from this point on, you can only go up to Gem Mint 10's (Ouch).

Mike

brucemo · November 9, 2002 3:51PM

I have three 10's in my set, which I got via submissions. I kept them because I had them, but I wouldn't have gone out and bought them.

I think it would probably be easier to do a vintage set in 8 than this set in 10. Some of the pops are just too low, and the extra quality isn't worth it to me.

bruce

mrichards · November 10, 2002 5:25AM

Hi Bruce,

Sometimes, It is really hard to tell the difference between a 9 and a 10. It is still a great accomplishment. You should be proud. I am, and it isn't even one of my sets. Are you keeping it or selling it??

Mike

brucemo · November 10, 2002 10:47AM

It'd probably sell at a loss now, not that it's ever been my intent to sell. I collect them because I want them, not because I want to get rid of them.

bruce

HockeyCardGuru · November 10, 2002 12:03PM

Great job on the set Bruce! I'll join the list of self proclaimed "idiots" on this board and say that I would have done the same thing if it was a card I really needed (or wanted).

$1025 for a Tim Raines rookie? Talk about crazy! ...Michael

HockeyCardGuru · November 10, 2002 12:22PM

Just a quick afterthought...Did anyone take a peek at the bid history on the Raines? I think that might just be an example of two collectors that got a little carried away. SMR on that card is $130 and it has a relatively high population (5) in PSA 10 too. The seller must be DELIGHTED! ...Michael

Idiot

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