Forbes: Aaron Judge's Rookie Baseball Card Sells For $14,665 On Ebay, Seriously
pauldrolkees
Posts: 193 ✭✭✭
The other night an eBay buyer placed the 44th and highest bid on a four-year-old, gem mint baseball card. He then clicked on Paypal to transfer $14,655 from his bank account to a virtually unknown seller in Brentwood, Tennessee with only 29 “feedbacks” from buyers. While shipping was free, it would take between three and seven days.
This mind-blowing transaction, The New York Post reported, was for a rookie card of the 25-year-old rookie phenom and home run hero Aaron Judge in 2013 soon after the Yankees drafted him. Topps issued only ten of the special Judge cards which he autographed. These are commonly known in the business as “chase” cards because collectors and speculators chase after them.The Judge cards originally came in packs that probably cost $3 to $4.
“This is just off the charts,” Topps marketing manager Susan Lulgjuraj told the Post. “What Aaron Judge is doing nobody has seen in recent memory. This is one of the first cards made of him.”
I immediately contacted Josh Evans, the founder of Lelands and the longest reigning auction house owner. “Perhaps the dumbest buy in the history of sports collectibles,” Evans replied with his inimitable honesty. “ Hype is hope.”
If you want to blow a few dollars on new packs of baseball, go for it. But as an investment, betting very big money on today's hottest star is fool's gold.
“It’s like the people that paid a hundred grand for that Tiger Woods card that came inside a magazine (Sports Illustrated for Kids),” Evans added.
In fact, a Tiger Wood card graded by PSA a Gem Mint 10 changed hands in 2001 for $125,000. “That's right, $125,000!” the company’s website declared. “This is not only the highest price ever recorded for a modern card, but it is also one of the highest prices realized of all-time.”
To PSA’s credit, it hasn’t taken this web page down. (Don’t even think of it now!) On eBay, Sports Illustrated for Kids issues containing the Woods card now average a few hundred dollars apiece.
To be fair, Judge has greatness written all over him. His enormous power, high batting average, and clutch RBIs make him a very rare Triple Crown threat. Like Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth, he hits moon shots. Judge’s home runs dent metal signs well past the outfield fence and slam against the right-field luxury box windows to the delight of the little guys in the bleachers.
We’ve only reached the All-Star break and he has already broken Joe DiMaggio’s Yankees record for home runs as a rookie, 29. His 30 home runs put him on pace for a Ruthian 60 over the course of a full season.
What sets Judge apart is his size. At 6’7,” 282 pounds, he is the biggest big league position player in history, and is endowed with baseball athleticism usually lacking in men of his size. As last night's Home Run Derby showed, he’s Paul Bunyan in pinstripes, capable of superhuman feats. Judge may well rewrite record books.
On the other hand, pitchers may find a weakness or Judge may suffer a serious injury. “If you squint, you can almost see Mickey Mantle,” said the Yankees TV announcer, Michael Kay in 1998 about another Yankees rookie sensation, Shane Spencer. The All-American-Boy slugger bore a slight physical resemblance to Mantle and clubbed ten home runs in his first 67 at bats. But if you squinted, you could also see the Yankees’ Kevin Maas. At baseball card shows I attended after the 1990 season, everyone wanted a Mass rookie card because he smacked 21 home runs in his first 254 at bats. Unfortunately, both Spencer and Maas are now best known for flaming out.
Baseball history is full of can’t-miss rookies who turned out to be busts. As a Mets fan, I bought my share of Greg Jeffries cards in 1988. I won’t bore you with the details about this comet. Every time a dazzling rookie bursted on the scene, my father reminded me of Dino Restelli in 1949. The Pirates’ centerfielder hit a record seven home runs in his first ten games, only to fade into oblivion. His 1950 Bowman rookie card now sells for about $5 on eBay.
By all means, feel free to root for Aaron Judge. But ride the crest of his rookie card wave at your own peril.
Comments
Restelli only hit six homers in his first ten games. He did hit seven home runs in his first twelve games.
Of course Forbes approaches it from the sheer investment side, no thought to the collecting purist— the salient point of that op-ed piece being: no one knows what Aaron Judge might become, so there's financial risk.
Color me unmoved by that revelatory takeaway.
That writer must have a graduate degree in The Obvious, because any sports fan (or human) knows the future is not written in anything, let alone sports, and anything can happen.
Judge may set the rookie record; he may not. He may win MVP; he may not. He may become the next Yankee cornerstone, or not. The next perennial All-Star, or not. We have to wait and see.
The writer cites the rookies who never became stars, yet he fails to hang a lantern on the fact that every major star in the game was once a rookie. Sometimes the hottest star does become a star.
Which means there was a point when said young player was on the ascent, and thus their cards became pricey.
And at that precise juncture, opinions like the one in that article would surface, ranging on the spectrum from cautionary to cynical.
The writer says, "Baseball history is full of can’t-miss rookies who turned out to be busts."
Baseball history is also full of prospects who became stars.
And of course the proprietor of Lelands, quoted in the op-ed piece, would love to steer collector dollars exactly where he wants them.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Great young player....but ask colin kaepernick and jeremy lin buyers what happened to the value of their rookie cards...
I guess it's all about a few bucks to some people out there, as opposed to the enjoyment of building a collection, learning about the pieces you like, pursuing them, acquiring them, and the collection as an expression of rooting for your favorite player.
But even for the strictly money-minded, the buyers of Trout or Harper or Tom Brady I bet are doing just fine. There's two sides to the coin. Half full, half empty, etc.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
I agree with basic premise of your argument, Matt. especially the part about collecting for the love of the hobby but as far as Judge is concerned, I see more speculators looking to cash in rather than those who are collector purists. I think that is illustrated by the meteoric rise in value of his cards in the span of a few months. Those who are spending that kind of coin are looking to cash in on the frenzy at some point in the future.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
To be succinct, the same shpiel was being shpouted about Mike Trout a few years ago. Last I checked, peeps are still paying "suckermoney" for him too.
Historically speaking, it is quite rare for new cards that achieve this sort of spike in sales to maintain their value. It's generally all downhill from here regardless if the player pans out or not. Even Mike Trout who has maintained consistent success in MLB has seen his cards drop as interest wanes.
Judge-mint Day.
I'm spending it and I am not
You're totally right, though. There are some people out there, like me and my kid and brother, collecting Judge— but there are more speculators.
One interesting thing that comes to mind right now as we discuss this:
Judge's being a Yankee, and with the MLB machine behind him, he might just wind up with a such a huge fan base that his collectors outnumber the speculators, LOL.
Or the pool of the former, which of course feeds the latter, might lead to both sectors growing so big the prices of his elite cards become crazy.
I guess the same can be said about Mick, Babe, or any card(s) that rises; where there's money to be made, based on performance and popularity, speculators will come in.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
This is the early stages of the Connor McDavid conundrum that hockey has. His Young Guns rookie (in hockey that's generally excepted as THE rookie) sold for $18k. There are at best guess 10s of thousands of them. It was a black label but still. A PSA 10 can be had for $400. Who would pay that? But then another sold for a few grand less. Boom... he wins the Lindsey, Ross and Hart! What will his next get!
I've bought plenty of Jack Eichel cards that will most likely never sell for more again. Well guess what? That's fine. I'm a fan. I had seasons for a decade plus before our move. All I'm doing is repurposing it to a Center Ice Package and some man cave adornment. It's not all about return for everyone.
Thanks,
Kevin
Kevin
Like we said about Jerome Walton at this point in his rookie year, how good was Mike Trout (Jose Canseco) at his age? The answer may surprise you.