Why isn't pre-war worth more?
CrissCriss
Posts: 777 ✭✭✭
I don't mean tobacco. I'm talking Goudey, etc. Prices rose during the recent market show but not like post war.
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bc you havent told us so!
LOL. Took the words from my mouth.
However, I have to point out that one does not directly reference "him". He must always be referred to as "The Crisser". Therefore the correct response would be: "Because the Crisser hasn't told us so!"
Basically only people care about Ruth and Gehrig, Dean and maybe Greenberg. Only us die hards know Moe Berg Etc. He could speak 6 languages but could not be collected in any of them.
Forgot DiMaggio sorry Criss
It's really as simple as demand. Not many people alive now care too much about older cards like that. The only people that do care are investors whom would be wary to invest in something that has little demand.
Someday in the near future the baby boomers are going to start dropping like flies and players like Mantle, Mays, Snider, Koufax, Aaron, etc will lose their luster and the prices will drop significantly. The good news is...at least the baby boomer generation are soon to be erased off the face of the earth! Talk about a scourge on mankind.
I would respectfully disagree with the above statement. There are collectors (as opposed to investors) out there, some born in the late 70s and 80s, who actually care very much about the Pre War cards in their collections. Some of us also don't even care how the values fluctuate over time; we are more about the hobby of hunting down the specimens we like, and then enjoying them every day once we own them. That said, while I wish the PreWar cards I like would be much cheaper to acquire, the truth is that many PreWar cards are quite expensive.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
I can agree with you. There are definitely collectors(myself included) that love the thrill of the hunt. There was a time where there were much more like us but now we are few and far between. Out of the very few people that still collect most do it more for capital gain and less about the collecting aspect of it. When there were far more of us collectors out there they lost interest in big part because the hobby became too pricey and was dominated by grown men searching for the latest investment opportunity. Those who were passionate about collecting out of the love of sport, etc quickly lost interest(myself included).
I do think this is a dying hobby. There will always be some interest in sports cards but after the baby boomers die off this hobby will see a significant drop off in interest that won't be picked up by younger generations.
Just like what has happened with Stamps.
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I've been hearing about the "donut hole" theory sense the 90's. How the next generation will have 0 interest in baseball cards in particular but I see 30-40somethings dropping huge amounts of cash for players who played before they were even born. I'll believe it when I see it.
I agree it's an interesting conversation.
I disagree with the stamp comparison. It's like comparing apples to ranges.
How's the coin market doing.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Just a guess, but supply & demand?
The card market got written off in the early 90s. The 1994 MLB disaster was the death knell. None of us has ever posted here. Or made money on a single card since that fateful period in history. Sorry, guys. Especially throw those pre-war dogs in the pound.
What is the time frame that pre-war cards make up?
Post World War 1 until December 7th 1941??
I think the whole "baby boomers dying and taking the hobby down with them" theory is bogus. Does anyone really think the impact of owning a 52T Mantle, Hank Aaron RC, Pete Rose RC, etc will take a nose dive as a result of this generation being gone? These are legendary players and legendary cards. I am 44 and did not grow up watching any of those guys but I still have the cards. You don't have to have seem these guys play to appreciate their cards. The 52T Mantle was an icon when I was a kid, still is today, and will be in 50 years when I am gone. Just my opinion...
TheClockworkAngelCollection
Regarding Pre-War...I have a couple opinions as to why it isn't as popular...
Most of the sets don't have the best eye appeal. They are almost cartoons. Once Topps entered the hobby, eye appeal was much better
The sets and numbering can be confusing. I hear different opinions about what the true Ruth RC, Dimaggio RC or Gehrig RC is. That applies to a lot of the players. I think a lot of collectors gravitate to Rookie cards and Pre-War is hard to figure out and way too pricey for most of us.
I also don't think it helps that Topps isn't a player in Pre-War. I think everything they did for the hobby has a big impact on why collectors gravitate to Post-War and 1950's Topps
TheClockworkAngelCollection
+1
Great examples and people never saw Wagner, Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig... but I don't know anyone who would turn down their cards, autographed baseballs.... modern guys who they saw play are a dime a dozen and can be had anywhere. The 52 Mantle transcends baseball and will always be on any major collector or investors wantlist.
KC
The fascination with 100 year old cards should be exponentially compounded over the next 20-30 years because there will be more of them.
Agree with Kendall and Clockwork. As an example, I and many other collectors I know are 40, and are big buyers of our favorite PreWar cards, even though we obviously never saw the likes of Shoeless Joe or Ruth or even Post War guys we buy (such as Mantle) play. As 49ersGuy said so well above, it is often about love of the sport, which extends back into the sport's history. Or as they say, legends never die.
Also, with respect to defining terms for a conversation, it is hard to discuss Pre War and yet exclude all Tobacco Issues, which comprise a healthy chunk of Pre War. That said, in terms of the Goudeys, e121s, DeLongs, and of course the Cracker Jacks, among many others, I would venture that the nice looking examples of the "big guns" in every grade are expensive enough as it is; easier on our wallets the better LOL!
Instagram: mattyc_collection
I think the number of sought-after post war cards will shrink over time as Generation Junk Wax ages, essentially to those cards you mentioned plus a few others. I think we are seeing a boom in part due to people in their 30s through 50s re entering the hobby. But there aren't as many potential born again collectors lined up behind us.
I'm sure this is the discussion the coy OP wanted to have to begin with.
I figured a basic Google search would easily find the information I was looking for but I can't seem to find a source that has a definitive time frame.
The Crisser is best ignored.
The way I see it is that todays generation doesn't appreciate the older cards or players, hence would not be interested in obtaining our cards/collections as they get older.
Seems any kid today only cares about relic/patch/autograph cards of current players. And with the world wide leader everyday calling a highlight from the previous night the greatest of all time every day it seems, why would they collect anything from the past?
Next time you go to a major card show observe the younger audience. Today's heroes are tomorrows past.
I think the hobby is definitely losing some steam, I thought this was going to happen several years ago and that's one of the reasons I got out of the high grade card scene.
I can't wait for the Michael Jordan rookie card to collapse in price so I can pick one up cheap!!!
As a collector I would welcome a crash. Would be fun to go to a National and be able to quadruple or better yet even a higher multiple of my buying power! I have no intentions to sell so it would save on my annual insurance bill and allow me to buy cards out of my reach. I buy higher grade cards because I fixate on the flaws and find it amazing that somehow this card has stayed in such amazing condition.
When I was a kid, I was the same way. I wanted Darryl Strawberry and Mark McGwire cards, I really didn't care about Mantle or Mays or Aaron's cards as a kid. My dad would tell me about having a 52T Mantle in the spokes of his bike and not really think much of it. But that changed in my 30's and 40's and I would hope the kids in the hobby today change too and appreciate that stuff. I wouldn't expect kids to care about 1952 cards anyway...
TheClockworkAngelCollection
Same with other forms of culture. As a kid I didn't listen at all to Stones or Led Zep or Police, etc. Then I hit my 20s and began to discover and appreciate the prior greats and classics. It's worth noting that it doesn't take an entire generation to do that with the supply of cards to sustain the hobby.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Adding to my previous post I will add that Even though I personally got out of the high grade card arena I do think that high end examples will stand a better chance of finding collectors more so than the mid grade stuff that is considered collector grade for most people.
Prewar often doesn't appreciate as quickly as vintage (%-wise) because it's really chock full of oddball sets. Set collectors can't focus on a particular sets like trying to do a Topps run, and have to try to pick and choose among many different types of sets, many of which are nearly impossible to complete due to rarity. Vintage sets also have a lower bar to entry for collectors. You can start out w/ a collectors grade raw 1960s complete set for probably less than $2000, and then start upgrading from there. If you wanted to do a collectors grade 1933 Goudey set, it will probably cost you around $5K just for the four Ruth cards in poor condition, and then you still have the rest of the set to go. Even then, it's doubtful you will ever complete the set due to the "short print" Lajoie card. All of these factors contribute to depressing prewar card prices. Of course, the big advantage prewar cards have is absolute scarcity. So while prewar cards usually don't rise as fast as vintage, they usually aren't subject to wild market swings either.
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IMHO the above is accurate and it's the main reason why I never attempted to collect pre war. I just couldn't afford the cards I wanted in decent grade.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
In my opinion, there aren't investors interested in quick turnover for profits. Most are long time highly advanced collectors that aren't apt to sell unless they have to. Some who I've talked with are more likely to donate their sets to a museum rather than sell.
As for myself, I ventured into that sector 30 years ago after getting bored with ubiquitous new production issues. Collecting all the variations of the National Chicle Diamond Star set, for example, has been a long labor of love. Did I do it for the $$$? Of course not.
Second, as pointed out above, the scarcity of high grade examples makes entry cost prohibitive. High grade Goudy, Play Ball and Diamond Star short prints and super stars sellers can basically name their price.
Third, Topps and Bowman brought standardization and consistency to a hobby that was fractured and inconsistent. Most pre-war had limited distribution and appears either cartoon like, or with fairly unattractive photos and formats. Remember, most were issued during the Great Depression, so unless you sort of fall in love with a particular set's novelty, most collectors are likely to pursue slicker issues issued after WWII.
Attractiveness plays a great deal in the way of pricing. Compare collector interest in the two 1953 Bowman sets. Though the black and white cards are far more scarce --especially the high numbers in high grade which have pops in the single digits!--the color prices tend to be much higher, and many more collect the set.
As far as supply is concerned, it's much more spotty trying to find cards. High quality auction houses often run them, but prices are too high for me.
I re-started collecting after a 25 year hiatus at the turn of the millennium. For my first 10 years back in the hobby I focused on 1950s and '60s Topps baseball HOFers but in 2010 I bought my first pre-war card (a T205 Gold Border) and I was hooked. Personally, I like the stability of pre-war prices compared to the volatility of the more modern vintage market. And the cards are gorgeous. Here are a few of the favorites from my collection (this thread could use some eye candy):
You've got some beauties there!
Even if they're knowledgeable, most would say 52T and be incorrect.
I'd ask a millennial for directions to a rave or an X-Box tournament. That's about it.
Shoukd we ask a millennial what a Picasso is? If they think a 69 Camaro is cool looking?? What do you think will be worth anything or go up in value I'm 2030?
@Paleo just awesome stuff. Pieces of art. That Dizzy Dean looks like he slud