For you collectors of modern....is ripping wax a sure fire money loser?
CrissCriss
Posts: 777 ✭✭✭
Seems like a constant gamble, the odds favor you losing money most of the time.
Am I right or do the card companies make it somewhat economical based on what they put inside boxes?
Am I right or do the card companies make it somewhat economical based on what they put inside boxes?
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George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Don't get me wrong, ripping is a whole lot of fun - especially when the new issues come out - however, the proliferation of insert sets and parallels has caused me to re-think my buying strategies for new stuff.
There is nothing economical about modern boxes!
Late 70's and 80's = 660-792 card set, 15 cards per pack, 36 packs per box with no filler = 540 per box. Two boxes later and you are a few trades away from the set. So for $30-$50 or so, you had the set and some dupes to trade.
Moden boxes = 330 card series, 15 cards per pack, including a few inserts/parallels so call it 12 x 36 = 432 base + 100 inserts/parallels per box. If you are an OCD set builder like I am, you keep buying packs to fill out the insert sets. So for $200-$300 per series, you have pretty much a master set excluding the parallels. That parlays to $800-$1000 per year to build series 1, series 2, and the update - in the case of a standard Topps set.
No thanks - I would rather buy a factory set for $50 and divert the rest into older sets and singles.
As others have mentioned, there are some issues which will give you good upside but if you are a Topps and Topps Heritage set builder like me, ripping boxes are a loss leader every time.
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<< <i>I thought the Crisser knew everything there was to know about this hobby. >>
<< <i>Over the long haul, the house always wins >>
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<< <i> If you do it right, Seems like a constant gamble, the odds favor you losing money most of the time.
Am I right or do the card companies make it somewhat economical based on what they put inside boxes? >>
If you do it right, absolutely not. If you're just buying a random box hoping to hit a bomb, yeah it's a gamble. Anything where you are receiving random value in the blind is just that. The key is knowing what and when to buy and when to rip/sell.
Examples: Ginter and Heritage baseball have gigantic set collector followings, many of whom would care less to rip, sort, sell, trade, etc to fill out their needs. If you open a large portion of these two sets as close to drop as possible, it is almost impossible to lose money. You have to move quickly, however, as the initial prices of the short prints and inserts will drop steadily following the first couple weeks. Sell auto's individually, base as sets, SP's and inserts individually the first week - as lots the following weeks.
Bowman and Topps Chrome also fit this mold. Open quickly and turn the major hits individually while selling the base as player and set lots. Anything major run though BGS's 24 hour service. The first several 9.5 chrome autos of the top players will open 2-3 times what the baseline will settle at initially.
Bowman Draft is different. Draft is almost built to held, opened or unopened, the value is usually highest ~2 years after release as the top prospects near promotion. 75% of unopened Bowman draft rises in price over time. There is value in leaving this product unopened. Ripped this product should be held until the right time - call up. A $5 auto of a future platoon outfielder becomes a $20 auto the day he's called up. Hope spring's eternal. The key is turning a case with initial resale value of $500 in $1500 by moving all the pieces at the right time.
Football I don't follow as closely, but regardless of release date, I notice it usually reaches peak value now between weeks 1-3 of the season.
There are a handful of people who make a living ripping wax, so yes it can be profitable. Someone above prior stated that "the house always wins." This is categorically false and why you can disassociate ripping from gambling in particular instances. In a casino your best chance of profiting is in short bursts as the odds favor the house - the longer you play the more statistically likely you are to lose. Ripping wax is the opposite - the more you open the more variance is removed from the equation. Open one random $800 case and it can $500 of value or $1500. Open 200 cases and the average usually pushes closer to purchase price, and far above if you sell correctly.
"Examples: Ginter and Heritage baseball have gigantic set collector followings, many of whom would care less to rip, sort, sell, trade, etc to fill out their needs. If you open a large portion of these two sets as close to drop as possible, it is almost impossible to lose money. You have to move quickly, however, as the initial prices of the short prints and inserts will drop steadily following the first couple weeks. Sell auto's individually, base as sets, SP's and inserts individually the first week - as lots the following weeks.
Bowman and Topps Chrome also fit this mold. Open quickly and turn the major hits individually while selling the base as player and set lots. Anything major run though BGS's 24 hour service. The first several 9.5 chrome autos of the top players will open 2-3 times what the baseline will settle at initially.
Bowman Draft is different. Draft is almost built to held, opened or unopened, the value is usually highest ~2 years after release as the top prospects near promotion. 75% of unopened Bowman draft rises in price over time. There is value in leaving this product unopened. Ripped this product should be held until the right time - call up. A $5 auto of a future platoon outfielder becomes a $20 auto the day he's called up. Hope spring's eternal. The key is turning a case with initial resale value of $500 in $1500 by moving all the pieces at the right time.
Football I don't follow as closely, but regardless of release date, I notice it usually reaches peak value now between weeks 1-3 of the season.
There are a handful of people who make a living ripping wax, so yes it can be profitable. Someone above prior stated that "the house always wins." This is categorically false and why you can disassociate ripping from gambling in particular instances. In a casino your best chance of profiting is in short bursts as the odds favor the house - the longer you play the more statistically likely you are to lose. Ripping wax is the opposite - the more you open the more variance is removed from the equation. Open one random $800 case and it can $500 of value or $1500. Open 200 cases and the average usually pushes closer to purchase price, and far above if you sell correctly."
Your scenario seems labor intensive. When calculating the profit do you figure in the cost of your time to pull all of this together?
Gotta stick to the right products if you're ripping modern and hoping not to lose money.
For example: 2005 Upper Deck, Cup and SP hockey boxes are a gamble with better odds for the ripping buyer than most. 2006 & 2007 are decent too.
<< <i>Your scenario seems labor intensive. When calculating the profit do you figure in the cost of your time to pull all of this together? >>
The statement is correct. The question - you'd have to ask someone other than me. Personally, the most I've ever opened of a product at once is three cases. Breaking, sorting, listing, and shipping is very labor intensive and most of the major breakers I know either hire help or have family/friends assist.
<< <i>Over the long haul, the house always wins >>
Good one Craig!!
<< <i>I wish I knew about everything in the hobby, but until recently I considered everything modern to be inconsequential. >>
This is just my take.
A hobby should be for fun and entertainment.
It shouldn't have consequences. That's what 401Ks are for IMO.
In the early 90s, we got caught up the "Rookie by the brick" thing and all I have to say is Brien Taylor e.g. That's when I realized it's far more fun if I treat this like a hobby.
Now, if something happens to appreciate? That's nice. I'm not blind to that. I've just learned over the years to try to keep it fun and the rest just seems like work.
If you play blackjack occasionally, maybe 100 hands on each visit. You are probably going to lose in the long run because the house will just beat you down over time. Same with ripping cards...if you rip occasionally and not with a specific method, you will always lose
BUT
If you play 1000's of hands of blackjack and can count cards, you will eventually show a consistent profit - at least until the casino kicks you out. Same with ripping, if you open a LOT of the right product, over time and with lots of labor, you can make a consistent profit. But it takes a lot of time and effort.
As far as the enjoyment of "ripping" goes, why pay 80-90-100 bucks to rip a box of modern cards when you can pay the 50 to 70 bucks for a 1986 Topps Football Rack pack and possibly pull huge HOF'ers like Rice and Young?
They call me "Pack the Ripper"
Hope this clarifies my point but the 40% margin is what the manufacturers have priced in as profit for themselves and not an expectation on what dealers or collectors will make as profit. It's why most products are losing propositions on release.