Determining if a wax box has been searched....

CubsKiller99 · February 20, 2014 1:34AM

Sometimes it's really easy. The packs are not sealed well and open too easily.

But you can confirm that with math.

Take a 792 card set, with chances of getting any one card in the set being .681.
Then take the top 5 key or most-desirable cards in the set and determine
which ones were NOT in your box.

The chance of not getting at least one of your five is .003, and not getting
any of six choices is .001.

My 1991 Topps wax box bought at the LCS was shaky IMHO before
I started opening the packs. But when I didn't find any of these in the
box then that's a one in a thousand chance:

Ryan
Griffey
Thomas
Jones
Clemens
Boggs

shu4040 · February 20, 2014 1:41AM

not to be a negative, but realistically was anyone, even in 91, searching for cards like Boggs? I don't remember if Chipper was hot enough back then for people to search. You might have just had that one reaaalllyyy bad box, or it was searched for ryan or griffey in 91 and the others you were just on the wrong side mathematically (ie that the .32*.32*.32 of not hitting them happened)?

mlbfan2 · February 20, 2014 1:41AM

Assuming your math is correct, what did you confirm? They made a lot more than 1,000 boxes, so you proved that an unsearched box won't necessarily contain any of those 6 cards.

JHS5120 · February 20, 2014 1:42AM

It happens. Personally, I don't think anyone is searching $15 boxes of cards.

I'm sorry this happened

1954 · February 20, 2014 1:51AM

I opened a 1976 Topps vending box a couple of months ago. I got three Brett's and three Eckersley but never received one other big star out of the remaining 494 cards. When I started to put the cards in order I realized that I had 2 and 3 cards of every player. Sometimes we open up boxes that have poor distribution.

CubsKiller99 · February 20, 2014 2:00AM

The packs were loose-fitting and I suspected the box was searched before
after I even opened the first pack.

Not a big deal as it wasn't much money. I suspect it was a teenager or someone
that needed the $15 back and had been looking for a Chipper card then decided
to take some of the others as well. The Clemens and Boggs card are really
visually appealing, the HOFers need no amplification.

As to the math it's pretty sound. Three in a thousand chance of not getting
any of five selected cards, one in a thousand for six cards.

From a 540-card wax box for 792-card set.

jradke4 · February 20, 2014 2:15AM

<< <i>The packs were loose-fitting and I suspected the box was searched before
after I even opened the first pack.

Not a big deal as it wasn't much money. I suspect it was a teenager or someone
that needed the $15 back and had been looking for a Chipper card then decided
to take some of the others as well. The Clemens and Boggs card are really
visually appealing, the HOFers need no amplification.

As to the math it's pretty sound. Three in a thousand chance of not getting
any of five selected cards, one in a thousand for six cards.

From a 540-card wax box for 792-card set. >>

congrats you found the 1 in 1000 box if that is what the true odds really are. your math seems to imply no chances of getting the same card in on box let alone one pack. really the odds of getting the card you want is 1:792 for each card you look at for the first time. in general the collation wasn't that bad. but if you assume no doubles at all, you are still only getting 68% of the set in a box. so while it seems rare that you might not find one of those players in a box its not as far fetched as you think to not get any either. also you box wasn't packed by picking from a lot of 792 cards possible for that box. it was a much bigger pool of cards.

FirstBeard · February 20, 2014 2:21AM

I am sorry to hear your Desert Shield box was searched. Those things are not cheap!

LarkinCollector · February 20, 2014 2:37AM

I opened 6 boxes of 1994 Bowman without any hits of two of the highest book cards (Posada & Hunter rookies) + 5 other commons/minor stars. I know they were unsearched since the still had the Topps outer wrap. Odds are extremely unlikely this would happen as well.

Cards in set: 682 (including 52 foil cards that were inserted 1 per pack)
Cards per box: 288 (264 regular/24 foil)

Box 7 - 2 Posadas + doubles of one of the commons I hadn't received before +3 other commons I hadn't received before, also 20 of the packs had back to back duplicates.

Calculating the odds based on perfect distribution when it's obviously not leads to errors in the math. You would need a large sample size and factor in average deviation from perfect distribution to come up with a more accurate estimate of the odds.

Dodgerfanjohn · February 20, 2014 3:39AM

Calculate your odds and plot it all on a distribution curve over say.... A million boxes as I'm sure Topps produced damn near that many 1991 wax boxes. I'm sure It's uncommon, but not rare, for such an incidence to occur.

dontippet · February 20, 2014 4:14AM

I may be incorrect, by I question your .001 calculation. It may be as high as .1 or 10 percent. I took .681 to the 6th power to get my answer.

bziddy · February 20, 2014 5:19AM

You cannot assume perfect collation in a box until much later. 1991 still had the possibility for multiples from the same box (pack). If there is that possibility, then your math is off. Same math on a 2014 box works.

...not saying your box wasn't searched -- I remember someone telling me about a dealer pulling all the 'good' cards out of 1990 Donruss and resealing. No MacDonalds or Giamattis for you.

mtcards · February 20, 2014 6:07AM

Open up non sport cards..its much worse. I opened a box from a sealed case of Ghostbusters II that I had purchased to put sets together and out of the entire box, the best set I could put together was still short 38 cards, yet I had 4-5 of almost every other one

dennis07 · February 20, 2014 6:13AM

Back when they were first issued loosely wrapped wax packs were not uncommon for 1991 Topps.

DM23HOF · February 20, 2014 6:55AM

Ah, the old, "Get rich fixing 1991 wax," scam. I know a few guys it's given oceanfront Malibu villas and exotic sports cars. But the problem is, they get greedy. Then, before you know it, they're onto the big scores-- I'm talkin' Sportflics here. High risk, high reward.

Edit: just never have anything in your life, any attachments, nothing you're not willing to walk out on in thirty seconds flat, if you feel the heat around the corner.

CubsKiller99 · February 20, 2014 7:22AM

<< <i>I may be incorrect, by I question your .001 calculation. It may be as high as .1 or 10 percent. I took .681 to the 6th power to get my answer. >>

You're right -- you are incorrect.

Assuming perfect distribution it's 540/792 or .681 cards for
any selected card in a single box.

To calculate chances of getting all six of your cards it's .681 to sixth power or .10,
but to calculate the odds of NOT getting any of your six cards it's .319 to the sixth or .001.

One in a thousand chance that all six of your selected cards would not be found in a box.

When those six happen to be most of the desirable cards in the set then you have to cry foul.

ReggieCleveland · February 20, 2014 7:50AM

Your logic is flawed because it presupposes that there's equal distribution in every box. Each box isn't pooling from one group of 792 cards, it's pooling from 6 different groups of 132 cards, that aren't equally represented in every single wax box.

But really, I wish you had just PMed me and I would have gladly paypaled you the $2.70 that those six cards are worth in order to avoid reading this thread.

grote15 · February 20, 2014 7:50AM

You're assuming perfect distribution for a box of Topps baseball cards? I think that is your first mistake.

CubsKiller99 · February 20, 2014 7:51AM

No one put a gun to your head to make you read it.

And I'd gladly pay at least double that to have you disappear permanently!

Mickey71 · February 20, 2014 7:57AM

If someone is searching 1991....OMG. Is the economy that bad? Gotta go...I'm resealing the 1988 topps wax right now.

handyman · February 20, 2014 8:49AM

Well at least they took out all the high pops and left you with all the 0 pop PSA 10 potentials, thats where the real money is in this set.

miconelegacy · February 20, 2014 10:27AM

<< <i>Well at least they took out all the high pops and left you with all the 0 pop PSA 10 potentials, thats where the real money is in this set. >>

I have really nothing to say lol.

ReggieCleveland · February 20, 2014 11:37AM

<< <i>No one put a gun to your head to make you read it.

And I'd gladly pay at least double that to have you disappear permanently! >>

Well, the thread title is misleading. I opened the thread expecting an educated and interesting discussion on detecting bad unopened and I got someone using multiplication out of context to make an erroneous point because he thinks somebody took his 1991 Topps Wade Boggs.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to wipe.

giantsfan20 · February 20, 2014 2:47PM

Not a 100% guarantee if searched but you could tell if the packs were moved or replaced in the box. Like when topps had various products offers on the wrapper. So box would have pack1 ,2,3,4 and then pack 1,2 etc in the box all with differnt offers.

BLUEJAYWAY · February 20, 2014 3:01PM

I don't know how relevent my experience is to this thread, but it does pertain somewhat to box tampering. Back in 1994 after only rejoining the hobby 4 years prior, I became interested in 94 Pinnacle baseball. I really liked the Museum cards, the Dufex technology. Went to a LCS and got a good deal on 5 boxes. I opened the first box, not a one of a museum card. Seeding was 1 in every 4 packs. I took the remaining 4 boxes to the local card show where the dealer was set up. Told him of the experience. He proceeded to take 1 box I brought back, and after rebuying it, offered it up for a round of "pack poker". This way the box was opened up in front of the dealer and me at the same time. Same result not a one museum card. We checked the shrink wrap and it did not have the logo on the wrap, and it was of a crunchy/crackly type when you crumpled it up. All the remaining boxes had the same type of shrinkwrap. I never gave it a second thought to check for the logo on the wrap as I'd been a regular customer with this shop, and was not overly experienced in what to look for in the fraud/scams dept. Never had an issue in the hobby up until this incident, or since. He took the remaining boxes back and made good on the whole purchase price, even threw in an auto. Dave Winfield pix. He tracked down the dealer who sold it to him and he got his $ back as well. We found out some time later that the orig. dealer who sold the boxes to my local shop had been doing this scam(opening/pulling/resealing) for quite some time. My LCS had only been in business 3 years. Word spread fast amongst the collector base and his only business after that was on the unsuspecting. Fortunately he left the hobby. Sorry if this post went a bit too long.

Determining if a wax box has been searched....

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