Half point bumps = lower value?

Jakt · December 5, 2012 4:27AM

Why would a card be worth less (VCP prices) at a half point higher than the full grade?

digicat · December 5, 2012 4:33AM

Could be eye appeal or declining market for the card.

What's your example?

Jakt · December 5, 2012 4:42AM

1957 Willie Mays 7 and 7.5 is one example that I came across.

digicat · December 5, 2012 4:50AM

Do you have prices, pictures, and/or links?

epatmythes · December 5, 2012 4:50AM

Actual eyes on the auctions!

It's really just a guess, but I know I'm guilty of doing it often myself when search to buy particular cards.

If I have a target grade in mind... let's say I want a particular card in PSA 8... but I might settle for a nice PSA 7... When searching ebay, I'll usually search for PSA 8 or PSA 7... but I often forget to also search for PSA 7.5... I'm sure I'm not alone.

If I'm not so picky grade wise and can live with a range, perhaps 5 to 8... then I'll usually throw the or search in there... (PSA 5, PSA 5.5, PSA 6, PSA 6.5, PSA 7, PSA 7.5, PSA 8)

But that's not often the case, and for whatever subconscience reason, I often forget to look for .5's when targeting a particular card and grade.

Thankfully, when I have remembered, I have been on the fortunate end of picking up some really nice cards at, what I'd consider, great prices!

handyman · December 5, 2012 4:52AM

Jakt · December 5, 2012 5:15AM

<< <i>Do you have prices, pictures, and/or links? >>

for PSA 7 - Average Price: $282.14
9/22/12 eBay Listing $350.00
9/10/12 eBay Auction $201.50
7/8/12 eBay Auction $268.00
7/2/12 eBay Auction $282.50
6/21/12 Mile High Auction $267.75
6/17/12 eBay Listing $350.00

Latest Auction Prices for: PSA 7.5 - Average Price: $235.00
8/8/12 eBay Listing $235.00
2/23/11 eBay $370.00
12/29/09 eBay $302.78
11/17/09 eBay $259.99
11/10/09 eBay $376.00
7/14/09 eBay $394.00
12/7/08 eBay $480.01

I have no pictures

Mickey71 · December 5, 2012 5:19AM

Some sales are very old....like 2007. The market has alot of ups and downs. Also there might only be a couple of sales at the .5 and they might be sales from 5 years ago. There are alot of factors that go into this.

scooter729 · December 5, 2012 5:21AM

It looks like one example where BIN was used on a high-priced 7 and a low-priced 7.5.

If you check the broader history, the 7.5 has sold higher (several between $370-$400) than the 7 (most between $200-$280). Don't just use one example, where anything could happen - the larger sample is needed to show a pattern.

And I would assume in every case that a half-point higher would sell for more than the lower whole-number grade, unless someone wanted a specifically-graded set (all PSA 7, etc).

DerekD · December 5, 2012 5:28AM

You also have to account for the cards that were graded before the half point system. The ones that people think have potential to get a bump up could also hit toward the higher end of the full grade prices.

70ToppsFanatic · December 5, 2012 5:37AM

How many times have we all heard someone say, :Buy the card, not the slab"?

Another factor could simply be the eye appeal of the card in question. Usually there are only a small population of .5 cards at the grade,
so a single card with poor eye appeal could easily skew the numbers.

And although the .5 is supposed to be for "superior" examples, we've seen some of the things they put in 8/9/10 slabs that look like dogs
and have no business being there.

itzagoner · December 5, 2012 5:42AM

here's one good reason why

mikeschmidt · December 5, 2012 5:56AM

<< <i>here's one good reason why >>

That has to be a mistake, right? I have no idea how that is worthy of anything higher than PSA 7 o/c. That is a horrible looking card

itzagoner · December 5, 2012 6:29AM

it's the most recent example i can find, there have been plenty of others....had this thread popped up sooner than now, i suppose i'd have posted another one.

i'll add on as i can locate more evidence of poor interpretation.

and while i don't relish the thought of exposing such examples, it makes me sad to think that a professional 3rd party grading company is doing this, unless..........the Campanella in question was inserted after the original was cracked out and someone is about to get screwed.

which would come as absolutely no surprise, either.

gemint · December 5, 2012 6:44AM

It is common to find half grade examples selling for less than their lower full point examples. This is especially noticeable for non-star higher pop cards. I guess I would attribute it to two reasons. First, as mentioned earlier, I think people just forget to search for half grade auctions. I think this is the biggest reason why 8.5s sell for less than 8s of a specific card. The second reason is set builders may be purists where they don't want a handful of half grade cards mixed in their sets. I don't think this is a big reason though.

For condition sensitive sets like 1962 or 1971 Topps baseball, 8.5s usually carry a respectable premium over 8s. For easier sets like 1965, 1968 or mid 1970s sets, I think you'll find plenty of examples where the 8.5 has a lower VCP value than 8.

I've been trying to be more diligent in searching for 8.5s to fill holes in my sets. If I can get an 8.5 for close to the 8 price, why not? Aside from ridiculous misses like the Campy posted above, the 8.5s are usually a very high end NM-MT card. We all know this from our own subs when we get a bunch of 8s and 9s and only a few 8.5s sandwiched in between.

markj111 · December 5, 2012 6:50AM

I believe it is tied to the randomness of auctions (as well as bad searches). I have found a few bargains on 8.5s that I have picked up for little or no premium over the 8.

bbuckner22 · December 5, 2012 6:58AM

There can be no way PSA gave that card a 7.5, is there?

CocoaBeachDodgers · December 5, 2012 7:03AM

There is deffinately something wrong with the grading or case regarding the Campy. Either a mistake by PSA or somebody switched out the holder. One of their claims is that no card that deserves a qualifer will receive a .5 grade.

As far as searching, let's say I want a PSA 8 or better Ralph Kiner Bowman Rookie. I will search for "1948 Kiner PSA". That way if I see a 7.5 at a good price, I may grab it. If I see a 7 in an old holder that I think I might be able to get a higher grade, I might grab it. And if I find a 8 or 8.5, I can bid on that also. I search with the "Newest Listed" on a daily bases so that I never miss an item.

So if other folks search like I do, than they will not miss a .5, but many do not, so maybe some will miss them, which could lower the price, but I think it has more to do with the low pop of .5's. I know I am willing to bid much more on a .5, assuming I feel the card should be in a .5 holder. Another words, Buy the card, not the holder.

itzagoner · December 5, 2012 7:11AM

<< <i>There can be no way PSA gave that card a 7.5, is there? >>

care to speculate?

let's revert back to the OP's question as it relates to VCP, or really, any pricing authority.

there now exists a conflict in the mind of a potential buyer who relies on VCP as their pricing authority, if the information being presented doesn't compute.

then we are left to ponder just how many potential buyers are sidestepping the half grade because they don't trust the methods being used to interpret it.

gemint · December 5, 2012 7:26AM

<< <i>There is deffinately something wrong with the grading or case regarding the Campy. Either a mistake by PSA or somebody switched out the holder. One of their claims is that no card that deserves a qualifer will receive a .5 grade.

As far as searching, let's say I want a PSA 8 or better Ralph Kiner Bowman Rookie. I will search for "1948 Kiner PSA". That way if I see a 7.5 at a good price, I may grab it. If I see a 7 in an old holder that I think I might be able to get a higher grade, I might grab it. And if I find a 8 or 8.5, I can bid on that also. I search with the "Newest Listed" on a daily bases so that I never miss an item.

So if other folks search like I do, than they will not miss a .5, but many do not, so maybe some will miss them, which could lower the price, but I think it has more to do with the low pop of .5's. I know I am willing to bid much more on a .5, assuming I feel the card should be in a .5 holder. Another words, Buy the card, not the holder. >>

your search method may work for star cards like in your example but it may not be the best process when searching for commons to fill in sets. People usually don't want to search for '1966 Topps 178 PSA' and then '1966 Topps 184 PSA', etc. Usually people will search for '1966 Topps PSA 8' and then see what's out there. They would then need to remember to search for '1966 Topps PSA 8.5'. Otherwise, they'll be getting PSA 7.5 and lower commons showing up in their searches.

CocoaBeachDodgers · December 5, 2012 7:46AM

your search method may work for star cards like in your example but it may not be the best process when searching for commons to fill in sets. People usually don't want to search for '1966 Topps 178 PSA' and then '1966 Topps 184 PSA', etc. Usually people will search for '1966 Topps PSA 8' and then see what's out there. They would then need to remember to search for '1966 Topps PSA 8.5'. Otherwise, they'll be getting PSA 7.5 and lower commons showing up in their searches. >>

Yes, I see what you mean.

I once started a 1934 Goudey set and searched with "1934 Goudey PSA". You will see the cards that you already have over & over, and if it is like a 1966 set, there are really going to be a lot of commons listed. So I see what you mean, but for me, I can look at cards for hours and hours and not get bored. Thank goodness everybody is not like me or nothing would ever get done in this world! LOL!

gstarling · December 5, 2012 8:42AM

I'm a bit of a purist, and while I agree it doesn't account for a lot of the variance, but it could be some. I collect key cards and sets. The way I do this is:

Highest whole grade of the card I can afford. Be that a 3 or an 8. I just don't like the half grades in my displays. I'm targeting a specific card in a specific grade.

Also, all my sets are straight grades if possible. For instance, I'll have a straight 7 set, straight 8 set, whatever I think I can afford, but all grades the same. I just think it displays better. A bit OCD, sure, but that's me.

dennis07 · December 5, 2012 11:51PM

Jakt, To address your specific original question I can add a little I think. I exchanged e-mails with Bobby at VCP awhile back over this issue.
The VCP average only includes sales for the last 12 months.
If you take your example you'll notice the sales for PSA 7 were all since 6/12. I'm assuming there were other sales of PSA 7 in the last 12 months that you didn't list.
The only PSA 7.5 sale in the last 12 months was on 8/8/12 and was for 235.00. So $235.00 becomes the "average" VCP price. If you add up the sale price for the 7 PSA 7.5's you have listed and divide by 7
you'll see the average sale price for PSA 7.5's is $345.14 which is actually more than the PSA 7 average of $282.14.
I personally disagree with VCP's decision to only go back 12 months to figure averages but it's not my web site.
Dennis

for PSA 7 - Average Price: $282.14
9/22/12 eBay Listing $350.00
9/10/12 eBay Auction $201.50
7/8/12 eBay Auction $268.00
7/2/12 eBay Auction $282.50
6/21/12 Mile High Auction $267.75
6/17/12 eBay Listing $350.00

Latest Auction Prices for: PSA 7.5 - Average Price: $235.00
8/8/12 eBay Listing $235.00
2/23/11 eBay $370.00
12/29/09 eBay $302.78
11/17/09 eBay $259.99
11/10/09 eBay $376.00
7/14/09 eBay $394.00
12/7/08 eBay $480.01

ClockworkAngel · December 6, 2012 12:24AM

I believe there are things that easily can be done to fix the problem of examples like that Campanella, which is obviously misgraded or has been broken out.

Something as simple as a quick snapshot of every card graded before it is sent back to the collector/dealer. That way, if one of us wants to research the card and cert # we can get verification on PSA's web site...perhaps for Collector's Club member only or whatever.

Point it, as the clear #1 3rd party grading company, PSA should not rest on their laurels. They can do a lot more to help prevent fraud and cheating. It isn't that hard, it just requires them taking a couple extra little steps. This has become too big a business for them to continue the same way they have for 25 years

Half point bumps = lower value?

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