psa population accuracy question

nascarticketstubs · May 5, 2012 3:06PM

I was browsing the population reports for the first time ever and was wondering just how accurate the numbers are due to people cracking cards out and submitting again?
For example of the 1,082 Mickey Mantle 52 Topps cards that are in the report, I wonder just how many actually exist? By cracking and resubmitting cards, doesn't it give a false number of cards in the report?
Would it be safe to assume that there's only 900-950 (or less) actual graded 52 Topps Mantle cards that are out there, and the 1,082 number is inflated slightly?

hammered · May 5, 2012 4:01PM

The pop reports don't actually state how many cards exist in a certain grade, but rather how many have been graded
The # that actually exist is impossible to tell

CollectorAtWork · May 5, 2012 6:05PM

Sure, but I guess what's the point? These pop numbers will only give a rough estimate of the total pop of a card out there. SGC has currently graded 264 of the 1952 Topps Mantle's, and some of these probably have been cracked, re-submitted, and crossed over. And there are probably still a thousand raws still out there. The pop #'s just give you a rough idea of what's out there, and you can make your own determination from there. For example, of the raws out there, most are likely to be lower grade, since any high grade raws are bound to be slabbed to protect the value. However, for those who like the collect their cards raw, they probably wouldn't have any problems continue to store their beater Mantle in a vinyl sheet or top loader.

Yankees001 · May 5, 2012 7:25PM

On the 1952 Topps Mantle, the higher grades are probably correct on the Population Report. The Authentic, PSA 1, PSA 2 might be wrong. These are worth a chance of re-subbing.

Unless everyone reports a card that is carcked out, PSA, SGC & BVG notifies each other of a cross over it will not be accurate.

Dave

miklia · May 6, 2012 12:32AM

huh - this is interesting. can we then infer that perhaps only 2500 (discovered) mantles exist? I would have thought that it would have been a much higher figure...

PowderedH2O · May 6, 2012 1:01AM

For example, of the raws out there, most are likely to be lower grade, since any high grade raws are bound to be slabbed to protect the value.

I disagree. I will venture to say that there are AT LEAST as many nice raw examples of almost any card as there are graded ones. Maybe more. Maybe a LOT more. There are tons of old time collectors that couldn't care less about getting their cards graded. Up until 3-4 years ago, I didn't own a single graded card, and I had complete sets running back into the 60's raw. I'm 46. I'm sure there are 55-75 year olds that have wonderful PSA 8 calibre collections sitting in boxes and binders all over the country. Their logic would be "I am a card expert. Why should I pay hard earned money to have somebody else tell me the condition of my cards? I already know the condition of my cards". PSA better hope that this is true, because if not, what vintage cards are they going to grade in the future?

YogiBerraFan · May 6, 2012 1:09AM

Can't be very accurate. I have 100+ labels from slabs I have cracked and I can't be the only one. There must be thousands of labels floating around out there.

MCMLVTopps · May 6, 2012 1:41AM

The POP report became forever corrupted when the first slab was cracked. Let's say collector "X" has this smokin' card in a PSA 7 holder, he/she, thinks it's worthy of at least a PSA 7.5 or higher. The card is cracked over and over and over and over...we're on a mission to upgrade this thing!! Each time the card is cracked out, a "ghost" PSA 7 is left in the POP report (assuming the card keeps coming back a PSA 7. PSA should have recognized this potentially disastrous flaw from day one, but they didn't come up with a solution. When they went to the half-point ratings, not only was the horse let out of the barn, but the entire herd got turned lose.

The primariy area of insanity (my estimation) falls between PSA 5s and PSA 7s. I doubt many PSA 8s get cracked hoping for higher. The POP report is totally false and gives an erroneous data item with which to validate the rarity of a graded card. The TRUE POP of a card will never be known...NEVER. I would guess at least 20-30% of the POPs data figures in the PSA 5-7 area is invalid...and will only go higher as more and more crackouts flood into Newport Beach.

Kudos to those who have actually sent in the flip along with the crackout...you are very few among many!! While your intentions are noble, your efforts are worthless as too much damage has already been done.

nascarticketstubs · May 6, 2012 2:11AM

<< <i>The POP report became forever corrupted when the first slab was cracked. Let's say collector "X" has this smokin' card in a PSA 7 holder, he/she, thinks it's worthy of at least a PSA 7.5 or higher. The card is cracked over and over and over and over...we're on a mission to upgrade this thing!! Each time the card is cracked out, a "ghost" PSA 7 is left in the POP report (assuming the card keeps coming back a PSA 7. PSA should have recognized this potentially disastrous flaw from day one, but they didn't come up with a solution. When they went to the half-point ratings, not only was the horse let out of the barn, but the entire herd got turned lose.

The primariy area of insanity (my estimation) falls between PSA 5s and PSA 7s. I doubt many PSA 8s get cracked hoping for higher. The POP report is totally false and gives an erroneous data item with which to validate the rarity of a graded card. The TRUE POP of a card will never be known...NEVER. I would guess at least 20-30% of the POPs data figures in the PSA 5-7 area is invalid...and will only go higher as more and more crackouts flood into Newport Beach.

Kudos to those who have actually sent in the flip along with the crackout...you are very few among many!! While your intentions are noble, your efforts are worthless as too much damage has already been done. >>

Thank you! This is exactly what I was trying to convey. I should have clarified my original post because I wasn't talking about raw cards, or how many total cards are out there. I was talking strictly about PSA graded cards. The total number of "ghost" cards out there has to be extremely high. And the bad thing is, if there were "X" amount of a certain PSA graded "5" of a rare card, that number gets greatly inflated by the cracking and resubmitting. So if there were actually only 16 authentic PSA graded 5's, but they have been cracked and resubmitted 35 times, it actually hurts the value for the collector. So the population report in this fictitious example is way off for the imaginary graded "5". There may be only 16 real tangible cards, but the population report will give a false impression of say, greater than 35. I think I'm making sense now...

Tomi · May 6, 2012 2:17AM

We can all do our part by sending the cracked out labels back to PSA. They delete them from population as long as they have the label in their posession. It would at least help.

hammered · May 6, 2012 2:39AM

This has been discussed before, but PSA probably should change the name of the Population Report to Number Graded Report or some such thing

And honestly, sending in your old flips when you resubmit is thoughtful, but a complete waste of time. For every person who is diligent enough to do that, there are at least 10 who don't so it really does no good.

psa population accuracy question

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