NFL Roster Cuts and Modern FB Boxes

ndleo

I was reading the NFL Roster Cuts this weekend (yes I am an NFL junkie) and the names started to remind me of a Panini modern FB checklist. Most of the 2013 rookies have all busted out, 2/3 of the 2014 rookies are busts, and surprisingly 1/4 of the 2015 rookies are off NFL rosters.

It looks like I am better off buying singles for prospecting instead of taking my chances with recent boxes. For 2013 and 2014, you will most likely end up with a rookie hit that has no value.

seebelow

Great point.....So is it better that way or pay the premium later chasing the hits? thats what I'm doing now, just ripping older 'modern' boxes for fun...but they're def not as cheap as when they were released.....its all a gamble

ndleo

I rip a ton modern as well. I rarely buy anything when released except for Topps Chrome and the occasional Panini box. In football most Panini products (outside of NT and Flawless) almost always crater a few months after release. 2016 was the exception with the Dak and Zeke RCs.

From a value point of view, I see no reason to buy 2013 football products, There literally only 2-3 rookies that have any value, the rest is filler. In fact most of them outside of the first two rounds aren't even on NFL rosters anymore. Topps football products aren't so bad since the rookie roster was somewhat limited, but Panini has 6th and 7th rounders in a lot of products.

I used to be a sucker for the Blowout or D&A specials on older modern boxes, but based on the potential return, I am probably better off buying 2015 and 2016 product. Besides the top known rookies, you still have a chance at sleeper rookie that has a breakout season. It's tough to find that in 2013 and 2014 since a large majority of the rookies aren't even on rosters.

prgsdw

Interesting to see the disaster the 2013 NFL Draft has become. 6 of the top 10 picks are on other teams for example. I recall fondly the replay of Mel Kiper Jr. Berating the Cowboys for trading away from Sharrif Floyd and trading back and taking Travis Frederick and "only" getting Terrance Williams (who has started 3 years opposite Dez). You know, likely the best center in the NFL presently - 3rd round grade from Kiper and all... he has been to 3 pro bowls, 1x first team all pro, 2x second team all pro. By comparison the first 16 picks combined have 2 pro bowls. Six of the first 11 were offensive linemen, 0 pro bowls amongst them...

ndleo

I remember the Frederick pick in that draft. Both Kiper and McShay ripped the Cowboys for taking him the first round. In their defense both of them called the 2013 draft as a low end draft pool.

However in the football card game, what makes or breaks a draft class are the QBs. Based on that, here is how I rank the rookie card classes from 2011. I didn't include 2017 since they haven't even played yet.

1. 2012 - Just like our wives, this year may not be a pretty as a few years ago but it still gets the job done. There are some signs of wear and tear, but the QB class is still the best one in recent modern drafts. 2 Franchise QBs - Luck/Wilson, 2 near Franchise QB - Kirk Cousins/Tannehill, and 3 sleepers/comeback - Osweiler/Foles/RG3.

2. 2015 - Both top QBs are due for big seasons. Winston and Mariota could soon be better than the 2012 top duo of Luck/Wilson. 6 of the 7 drafted QBs are still on rosters. Someone from the Mannion/Hundley/Siemian/Petty group needs to rise up and be the 3rd best QB. My bet is on Brett Hundley. Good time to stash his rookie cards.

3. 2016 - 15 QBs were taken and I think 11 are still on rosters. Just by sheer numbers, this class could be #1 by next season. It's too early to call someone a franchise but Wentz and Prescott look good. Goff and Lynch will be given a shot to be the franchise. If Conor Cook, Cardale Jones, or Hackenberg somehow emerge, this could be the #1 rookie class. Before the draft the 2016 QB class was considered average, so it goes to show you that the experts may not know anymore than any of us.

4. 2014 - 14 QBs and none of the first rounders may make it to a second contract with the team that drafted them. The best QBs left were both taken in the second round - Carr and Garoppolo. The only other X-factor QB is AJ McCarron, which I think is a little bit of hype coming out of Cinci. However since the top 2 QBs play on glamour teams and the WR class is the best in modern rookie classes, demand for 2014 products is still pretty good. I am actually surprised that the market absorbed all of the Chrome Football cases that Topps cranked out.

5. 2011 - The only reason to buy this product is for Julio Jones, JJ Watt, and A.J. Green. Cam Newton is a franchise QB, but he seems to be stuck in a up/down season cycle. His Yards per Attempt fell below 7.0 last year, which is not a good sign.