PM's are stagnate, stooks are rising......
Julio
Posts: 2,501 ✭
How are you adjusting to the current reality. Take care. jws
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
chart
I knew it would happen.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I wish I was all in on those. Instead my profits in foreign stock markets are in the lunch money at Chipotle range for 2015. Ah well, better a $10 burrito than a stick in the eye.
Here are the six ETFs I have in a spreadsheet to track approximate performance, ranked by ytd results (dividends not included):
SLV +6.8% silver
EEM +4.7% emerging markets
IWM +4.1% U.S. small cap (Russell 2000)
SPY +2.8% U.S. large cap (S&P 500)
GLD +0.0% gold
TLT -5.2% U.S. 20-year treasury bonds
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Why are people concerned about losing money in stocks but not concerned about losing money in pm's? >>
Bidask, you ask such silly questions. Haha
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I had to look twice, but nobody in this thread mentioned being worried about losing money in precious metals, nor did they mention being worried about losing money in stocks. Who's the fear-monger in this thread?
Having said that, I'd be more concerned about buying stocks at these high levels than about buying precious metals at these fairly low levels. Baley and cohodk might even agree at this point.
I knew it would happen.
Sports analogy: go long and deep with your favorite players, assets on the sidelines aren't in the game working for you, but probably, they won't get injured, either. Just older
A balance of focus on both offense and defense is usually the winning strategy.
There are times to try flea flickers and hail marys, or to take a knee and run out the clock, of course, but IMO a coach can't plan a dynasty around just one of those ideas.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Why are people concerned about losing money in stocks but not concerned about losing money in pm's?
I had to look twice, but nobody in this thread mentioned being worried about losing money in precious metals, nor did they mention being worried about losing money in stocks. Who's the fear-monger in this thread?
Having said that, I'd be more concerned about buying stocks at these high levels than about buying precious metals at these fairly low levels. Baley and cohodk might even agree at this point. >>
i think you said that in another post about a year ago.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
If you think you know the future, have at it. I don't pretend to know what's coming next. What I do know is that the system is pretty much corrupt and that I don't always have to play the game. It's great if you're pumping stocks though. Churn those accounts! It's all taxable! Go for it.
Buy low. Sell high. Isn't that the idea? I guess it depends on what your definition of "low" and "high" are.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Whatever I said a year ago still applies, and even more so. Nothing has changed for the better in the world of finance. Repealing Glass Steagall and the trashing of the FASB standards were solely for the benefit of investment banking while screwing everyone else.
If you think you know the future, have at it. I don't pretend to know what's coming next. What I do know is that the system is pretty much corrupt and that I don't always have to play the game. It's great if you're pumping stocks though. Churn those accounts! It's all taxable! Go for it.
Buy low. Sell high. Isn't that the idea? I guess it depends on what your definition of "low" and "high" are. >>
Everyone got screwed? Churn accounts? Who got screwed? Are you suggesting I churn accounts? You no nothing of this business. Since when is an IRA taxable?
Who said anything about knowing the future?
Dude you have talked yourself out of making a lot of money by holding onto fairy tales in your mind. 😊
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Who said anything about knowing the future?
Dude you have talked yourself out of making a lot of money by holding onto fairy tales in your mind. 😊
On the contrary, I do know about your industry. I never mentioned IRAs, and neither did you. Your fear-mongering and taunting about precious metals implies that you somehow know the future - which you don't.
The essence of all your posts on this forum amount to "my market is up and yours is down, see how much smarter I am and you aren't?"
I've never seen you express any concerns about the absolutely disgusting corruption rampant in finance, but you continue to act as if anyone who doesn't jump on your bandwagon lives in some kind of delusionary world. You take an aire of superiority because the stock market has only risen due to QE and a revamp of "moral hazard" standards. I find this highly intriguing.
OTOH, you know nothing about my finances, so please don't pretend that you know whether or not I've made or lost money. I'm enjoying a lower cost of averaging-in. Without the help of a financial expert who gets a percentage or a fee for his involvement.
Everyone should get some training and learn to think for themselves, especially when it comes to personal finance. But then, all the attorneys, tax advisors and financial planners would lose business, wouldn't they?
And yes, everyone got screwed when the banks and big financial corporations were bailed out by taxpayers in 2008 instead of losing their jobs for mismanagement and malfeasance and instead of being liable for their own screw-ups and greed. And yes, the main beneficiaries of obamacare are the insurance companies while the little guys get screwed. If you ignore these facts we will never agree on much.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Everyone got screwed? Churn accounts? Who got screwed? Are you suggesting I churn accounts? You no nothing of this business. Since when is an IRA taxable?
Who said anything about knowing the future?
Dude you have talked yourself out of making a lot of money by holding onto fairy tales in your mind. 😊
On the contrary, I do know about your industry. I never mentioned IRAs, and neither did you. Your fear-mongering and taunting about precious metals implies that you somehow know the future - which you don't.
The essence of all your posts on this forum amount to "my market is up and yours is down, see how much smarter I am and you aren't?"
I've never seen you express any concerns about the absolutely disgusting corruption rampant in finance, but you continue to act as if anyone who doesn't jump on your bandwagon lives in some kind of delusionary world. You take an aire of superiority because the stock market has only risen due to QE and a revamp of "moral hazard" standards. I find this highly intriguing.
OTOH, you know nothing about my finances, so please don't pretend that you know whether or not I've made or lost money. I'm enjoying a lower cost of averaging-in. Without the help of a financial expert who gets a percentage or a fee for his involvement.
Everyone should get some training and learn to think for themselves, especially when it comes to personal finance. But then, all the attorneys, tax advisors and financial planners would lose business, wouldn't they?
And yes, everyone got screwed when the banks and big financial corporations were bailed out by taxpayers in 2008 instead of losing their jobs for mismanagement and malfeasance and instead of being liable for their own screw-ups and greed. And yes, the main beneficiaries of obamacare are the insurance companies while the little guys get screwed. If you ignore these facts we will never agree on much. >>
You said
' it's all taxable' ......it's not all taxable if you hold your investments in a IRA. And your assumptions about what you glean from my posts are incorrect. I have always believed in diversification ...... I own plenty of gold. You don't believe in diversification.
The business I'm in is humbling . No one knows the future I guess we can agree on that . 😃
That is how I survived by learning from mistakes and improving my skills.
But you make these outlandish assumptions and categorize all financial planners,attorneys, and others with blanket generalizations. That tells me you really don't know what your talking about.
I've never posted and given advice like you....like cash in your IRA's!
I don't need to express my sentiment on corruption. I professionally lived through it and all its ramifications.
And it's funny you bad mouth advisors ms brag you do it on your own.
Another foolish statement . The wealthiest have advisors! 😀
Oh and I'm really a nice guy !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Some folks make decisions for emotional reasons, or as "matters of principle", and there's nothing wrong with that. They should probably realize that they're not "risk-free", but simply taking a different set of risks..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Everyone got screwed............ Did I stutter? Let me go slowly. When Hank Paulson stood in front of Congress and demanded $750 billion overnight based on a single sheet of paper, everyone except those who got bailed out (instead of being investigated)............got screwed. And every subsequent bailout..................everyone except those who got bailed out (instead of being investigated).............got screwed. It's not even debatable. This was cronyism at its worst - at the highest levels - and our government is THE vehicle.
IRAs - of course it's not all taxable, but the profits on proceeds from an IRA certainly ARE TAXABLE if you've done any kind of reasonable job managing them, especially in this market. Tax-deferred isn't the same thing as being non-taxable. Furthermore, the assumption that you will be withdrawing from an IRA at a lower tax rate in the future is only an assumption and it may be an incorrect one if tax rates are increased before then.
I think that keeping an IRA may well involve another significant risk - especially if means testing becomes the norm for social security or other government benefits that you think you've earned. You don't think your IRAs will be looked at? I do! I think the probabilities are increasing that IRAs will be scrutinized for income redistribution and surtax possibilities. If you trust the government to take care of you - that's your opinion and you're welcome to it.
Let me be clear - I stopped putting any amount of trust into the government, the banking system, and the stock market in 2008. I'm voting "no". If you can't understand why, just try to understand that we see things very differently these days. In my view, I'm not the one who believes in fairy tales.
Diversification - I know what it is, and I believe in diversification when appropriate. We simply disagree on when it's appropriate. I'll give you this much - some of that depends on an individual's specific financial situation.
Blanket assumptions & categorizations - tit for tat. If you think I'm holding onto fairy tales in my mind about money management, then I can make blanket assumptions & categorizations about financial planners and lawyers. Why don't we both agree to stop with the insults?
Cashing in an IRA to buy precious metals - it's funny because my finances are still way ahead after penalties and taxes from where I would have been in an IRA with mutual funds. Let me say it again. Way Ahead. Of course, good timing helped.
One personal anecdote - I put $2,000 into the T.Rowe Price Science & Technology Fund in an IRA account back in the Year 2000 for my fiancée's daughter. That $2,000 is now $1,200 even after this amazing 6-year long stock market bull run generated mainly by the Fed's massive liquidity injections. Slice it any way you wish, but that market crash in 2001 has to be considered when you're all goo-goo about the recent stock market performance. That's the reality. Let me say it one last time - my precious metals are still WAY ABOVE my cost basis since the Year 2000.
Generalizing about the need for advisors simply because the wealthy have advisors - there you go again! Does it occur to you that not all wealthy people spend money on financial advisors? I'm not going to argue the point, because I get advice in areas where it's more efficient to get that advice. It's arrogant to think that everyone needs your help, especially when you are so married to the system.
And Dan - I've met you and you did indeed seem to be a nice guy.
Moving on.........to Risk Management. Actually, it's been awhile since I've studied risk management but we did cover it in several of my finance classes back in the day. As I recall, there are various types of risk, and classic financial analysis attempts to quantify each of those risks. The question is whether or not each type of risk is taken into account adequately. That's the question, correct?
bidask takes his clients' information and constructs portfolios with calculated risks based on his formulas, and possibly on some of his own experience/judgements.
Baley uses an asset allocation and rebalancing model to manage virtually all of his risks - and because his finances allow it, he sets aside a certain amount of speculative money to chase high risk/high reward stocks in his own industry. I think that's smart.
cohodk spends a lot of time with charts and taking speculative positions based on his own indicators. I have no problem with that because he seems to know what he's doing.
Here's what I do. I manage risk over time. I don't need speculative stocks, charts, or professional advice that's a re-hash of what I already know. I know the precious metals markets well enough to know what to expect. I don't care about volatility. Of course I try to time my buys, just like everyone else - but unlike bidask, Baley and cohodk - that's not the prime consideration.
I care about accumulation, and one fine day I will care about divestment but not until I decide to pull the trigger. I don't care about chasing a stock market or a precious metals market up based on momentum until it crashes. Been there, done that - a few times. I don't need to spend my time absorbed in the chase. I know how to manage my own assets, and since they are many times more than what they were in 2000, I assume that I'm doing something right.
Oh, and just to be perfectly clear - I don't like having my assets exposed to a system meltdown or systemic default. I don't bank electronically and I don't have more in a bank account than I judge to be reasonable or useful. Who needs the risk exposure to hacking and identity theft? Who needs the risk of confiscation or bail-ins? Who needs to be vulnerable to a liquidity crunch at the least opportune time?
These are some of the risks (but surely not all of them) that never get taken into account in all of your conventional analyses. That's where we must agree to disagree, fellas.
Lastly, I make the case for dollar-cost-averaging, utilizing precious metals. It could be General Mills, or Vanguard 500 Fund. It doesn't really matter - you can build equity either way if you do it consistently. The main difference is that physical precious metals aren't paper assets, and that's one risk I'm not willing to take on right now. Maybe if they start to clean up the system, but probably not until.
Are we getting closer to understanding each other yet?
I knew it would happen.
Otherwise I always did understand your position. I only disagree in the emotional foundational by which it is based.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
IMO we were all hornswaggled
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Also important is understanding the correlation of investments in a portfolio to each other.
Taken all together you can pretty much calculate not only the risk your taking in an investment portfolio but return as well based on historical data.
I suggest if your 100% invested in any asset class over long periods of time your return will be greatly impacted. As well if you you can stomach the volatility of being invested 100% invested in a particular asset class go for it!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
- for cohodk, change "speculative" to "short term controlled risk profile"
- for Baley, change "screwed" to "hornswaggled by ethically-challenged politicians"
- for bidask, note that the classical definition of "financial risk" is "volatility"
Lastly......if your 100% invested in any asset class over long periods of time your return will be greatly impacted.
*you're
Yes, I know. I suppose that implies that I consider systemic risk to be a serious problem.
I knew it would happen.
Jmski.....This is an example of why I mean when I say you make investment decisions based on emotion. In the last 20 years, 240 months, there is only a 12 month window when you could have bought this and still be down on your investment. Only a 5% of the of last 20 years would have made one a loser on this investment. This is what emotions do to an investor. I am not, an never have called you out, but if I was your financial coach, you would not want to be standing next to me on the sidelines.
Why did you not systematically invest in this like you do silver? Wouldnt it be nice to have another $2000 invested at $12? I see investors do this all the time---become emotionally involved. Its a death knell. Stop it!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
That investment was a gift, and wasn't based on anything except that I was familiar with the fund. At that time, I was unemotionally selling many of my non-IRA investments with some major gains due to the internet stock runup in order to buy land and build a house.
I unemotionally held onto my tax-exempt speculative internet boom stocks held in my SEP IRA account and forgot to watch them as they went to zero.
One of the best things I've done was to liquidate stocks when I did; likewise one of the dumbest things I've done was to stop watching my speculative stock portfolio. Neither of those was an emotional move. Nice try.
I knew it would happen.
What you're saying is relevant, and that's the point I was making in my previous post in saying that you could use General Mills or Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund to do exactly what I'm doing. The main difference is that I've chosen an asset class that isn't dependent upon paper issued by a mortgage bank, the government, or any of today's favorite fund management flavors. I chose to accept the market risk when spread over the component that nobody seems to take into account............time. You are a portfolio rebalancer in order to keep your portfolio within a certain standard deviation of its average at all times as it grows. That's what I did from about 1980 to 2005 or so. That's not what I'm doing now, and I accept the risk of much wider swings in the value of my portfolio. I accept it and embrace it. Concurrently, I'm actively hedging against the tail risk that I am most concerned about............gross mismanagement and malfeasance by our government and the banking system. Of course, I hope these issues never come to a head and that the worst case scenario is only that I don't become an uber-wealthy stock investor. That outcome isn't a driving force for me, although I'm sure I could cope.
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
Jmski52, I made the exact same mistake with that fund in 2000 after missing out on the vertical rise in 1999. After seeing the "bargain" price on the pull back I jumped right in. The irony of it is that I held that fund during the 1996-1998 period and figured the SM had essentially peaked. After being bit by stocks for -$10K in my 2000 nibble, I stayed away and put a lot of my 401K with my Fortune 500 employer, who had apparently being doing quite well. In 2001 they had seen a 40% rise while the SM was falling. I felt "smart" for a little bit. Then 9-11 came with all the associated liquidity problems and my company stock disintegrated as the airlines went down in flames (my company owned significant air line refueling/concession businesses around the world). In 2002 they declared chapter 11 because debt on non-core businesses overwhelmed the positive results of the core energy business....the stock became nearly worthless (1/2500 haircut). It didn't help either that I held oil and insurance stocks from 1966-1982 and saw them go nowhere. Then when the 1987 crash came and wiped them back to those earlier levels, I was pretty much disgusted with 21 years of stock ownership. My coin investments had done fine. What wasn't clear to me at the time was that a lousy 21 years was going to be followed by a wonderful 21 years.
Another "what if" that I am constantly reminded of is that in 1982 I dipped my foot into the silver market for the first time at $13/oz ....figuring that a drop from $50 had to be a good buy. It was like $3K worth or something. Over the following months I saw it get eroded down to half that price. When it rebounded briefly to $9-$10 I bailed out. My first hard PM lesson. I did not participate in the 1979-1980 bullion boom as I was 100% into numismatic coins, which did quite well. In hindsight I wish I was schooled in charting and TA back in those early days. I never even heard those words until I came into the forum in 2002-2003 and then started poking around. Ironically, now that "everyone" and their computers follows TA, it's now a favorite target of the "algo's" to purposely break trend lines and patterns before reversing.
I'm sorry you don't see it. I do. And that's why I can do what I do while most attempt and fail. That's ok. It's just the way things are.
A coach doesn't pull his star player out of the game to punish him, he does it so that player can get a different perspective. To get him to refocus.
Shame on me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The only time I start to get emotional is when I'm putting in a relatively large position and I know it to be speculative. At those moments, I've re-hashed my strategy enough that I'm able to pull the trigger, but I do experience a small collective assault on my senses when the position is big enough to make a difference. On the big ones I've been correct every time - as far as I can tell. The problem is that there can always be a first time.
Putting all that into perspective, I don't feel any anxiety about the precious metals purchases that I've been making since 2012. It's pretty dull and routine - but that's okay too. Buy when nobody's interested. They will be, soon enough.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
Putting all that into perspective, I don't feel any anxiety about the precious metals purchases that I've been making since 2012. It's pretty dull and routine - but that's okay too. Buy when nobody's interested. They will be, soon enough. >>
">Perth Mint gold demand at a 3 year low
I'm not sure what happened there but my link doesn't work and I'm not able to edit the post .
gold demand at perth mint 3 year low
Heres another
ETF holdings lowest since 2009
The net impact of low interest rates has been pushing investors into "risk assets". Martin Armstrong thinks that this will continue a little while longer prior to a major change in investor psychology.
The government cares mainly about being able to issue bonds. When the Fed starts to raise rates, the Treasury's debt load instantly becomes a bigger issue. Granted, that's never bothered them before - but this time around the debt load is about double that it was before rates started going down. It could get interesting. The stock market threw a "taper tantrum" last time there was a hint of a real rate increase.
If the economy hasn't started booming before the Fed starts to raise rates, nobody will be happy. Current bondholders will have to face the truth that rates can't keep going down forever and their current holdings will start being discounted. At that point, they are screwed, but that's okay since they've enjoyed a windfall as rates were brought down. Still, how long before they get antsy and start looking for something else?
Looks like there may be nowhere to run before too long. Anyone want a nice Picasso?
I knew it would happen.
We now have the IMF advising against raising US rates. Those in the know understand that the IMF is an extension of US banking interests.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
regarding investment decisions". cohodk
Well said cohodk. This forum needs a little more tolerance, more humor and a large dose of understanding opposing views, collection
methods, etc.
Through it all we strive ahead believing are viewpoints are correct, in the face of credible evidence suggesting otherwise. Dang, I love this
beautiful mess, it's humor, and yes it's bits of wisdom. Onward fellow members; onward in all our glory. Take care. jws
<< <i>
Well said cohodk. This forum needs a little more tolerance, more humor and a large dose of understanding opposing views, collection
methods, etc.
Through it all we strive ahead believing are viewpoints are correct, in the face of credible evidence suggesting otherwise. Dang, I love this
beautiful mess, it's humor, and yes it's bits of wisdom. Onward fellow members; onward in all our glory. Take care. jws >>
I'm going to upvote you on this one