An Important Interview with John Williams, of ShadowStats
jmski52
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John Williams is one of the very few guys I really pay attention to. The others are Jim Sinclair, David Walker and Doug Casey (most of the time). In this telling interview John Williams lays it out very clearly. Be advised.
If this doesn't sober you up, nothing will.
If this doesn't sober you up, nothing will.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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Lol - one of us didn't read the interview, or maybe my reading comprehension skills are down the tubes and I'm senile and don't know it quite yet. I could almost swear that I didn't see anything about a shadow government in that interview or even in any of the other things that John Williams has written on his website.
And to think I always thought that the guy was qualified and educated in the old school of GAAP accounting and economics, where 2+2=4. I know, I know - things have "changed" and that's an understatement.
I knew it would happen.
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AUD, CAD, Swiss Franc yep, no reason to challenge that. US hyperinflation...man, that is a tough one and somehow, I just don't see it that way even though I can see why folk believe in it. Simple reason is that many of the US entitlements are tied to inflation, in particular SS which has to increase with inflation, by law so don't look for inflation to be on the official gov stats anywhere but we know it's there. We know that new local taxes, fees, license expenses (fed state local) are being announced on a monthly cue but hyperinflation...not in the sense that prices are going to skyrocket overnight. Taxation, regulation, fees, licenses, tolls...yeah, baby, it's comin' to you in spades. We know that cash in the market place is diminishing and electronic digit swapping is the future of wealth and look to gov having access to your digits...it's just gotta happen so it's hard to fault the interviewee here. You can even pay your taxes with a credit card...well, actually a credit account number with expiry date and last 4 digits; you don't even need cash or a check as a form of payment, just digibuks. Cash is so old fashioned.
There is really only one way to game the plays that the gov is going to put on us and that is to own wealth that is outside of the digibuk system, real physical ownership of something of value but we can call it something respectible like wealth preservation instead of gaming the plays. As the interviewee states, gold is the cleanest and purest way to hold transportable wealth. Only problem with being heavy into gold as a form of wealth preservation is that there still has to be someone on the other side of the deal that is willing to trade something to you for your gold. You might need some digibuks or some new shoes or something to eat but without someone on the other side of the deal, all you have is a hunk of noble metal that shines pretty nicely and has a lot melting temp. None the less, gold can not be ignored nor can silver, they both have to be part of the package just as physical cash is part of the package along with some farm land, a residence, maybe a little forex account and some equities...there's lots of options. There are plenty of places to stash your wealth other than digibuks and each person should have their nest eggs well distributed, lest the economic wolf finds one of the nests.
Generally, the article seemed to not be too far out, at least the premises of his arguments seem pretty well mainstream. In particular the paragraph about happy talk about our economic situation. I believe that there are a lot of people that don't know anything more than the nightly news, if even that, about our current situation. It's almost fashionable now for public figures to admit that they may have misspoke (lied) or misremembered (another word for lie) or understimated (pumped in too much blue sky) or overstated (got caught pumping too much blue sky), after all, we're all human. If something turns out to not be what was reported on the news people don't seem to mind.
Got Cash?
<< <i>John Williams and his "Shadow Government" are a little too far out there for me. To say that his opinions are heavily biased is an understatement.
Lol - one of us didn't read the interview, or maybe my reading comprehension skills are down the tubes and I'm senile and don't know it quite yet. I could almost swear that I didn't see anything about a shadow government in that interview or even in any of the other things that John Williams has written on his website.
And to think I always thought that the guy was qualified and educated in the old school of GAAP accounting and economics, where 2+2=4. I know, I know - things have "changed" and that's an understatement. >>
I am already familiar with John Williams. I read this interview. More importantly I read past it. Johnny Boy has a two-fold agenda; an axe to grind and money to make.
I have no doubt that Mr. Williams is vastly superior to me in the area of economics. It's how he interprets the information to fit his opinions that I have a problem with. The first example that comes to mind is his ridiculous explanation of what the "true" inflation rate is.
Williams tracks inflation the way the government tracked it prior to the Clinton Administration, so his agenda may seem nefarious to you but the government itself used to calculate inflation the way that Williams tracks it. As you may or may not recall, the Clinton's Administration simply needed to bugger the figures to look good and it was subsequently left screwed up because the government can keep all of their interest rate-related obligations lower by buggering the inflation numbers lower. I don't know about you, but I could never figure out how fuel costs and food costs aren't part of the numbers that you and I have to pay when they are rising. Same goes for "imputed rents" or whatever that buggered-up housing cost number turned out to be.
Williams gives a fairly cogent and detailed explanation of what's coming and how the data supports his projections. Let's see how right or wrong he is. I tend to think he's right about a 2nd dropoff in the economy, and that's what they are holding back on the rest of the stimulus money for, I am sure. If he's right about hyperinflation (and I'm a bit skeptical about that one myself) then it'll be hard to paper-over, won't it?
Lastly, how do you know that his opinions aren't derived from his data, instead of him interpreting the data to fit his pre-formed opinions, as you are suggesting? I'm not sure how you get that. Convince me with some data or facts.
I knew it would happen.
We haven't seen hyperinflation yet, thankfully, though it very well may be on the way. We are doing more to go in that direction than to steer from it. The one thing we have seen is hypinginflation. Mr. Williams is great at it. But I don't believe that everything he says is a bunch of BS. I believe a lot of it to be true. I can follow his reasoning up to a certain point but then comes a jump in logic that leaves me with a scrunched face and shaking my head 'no'.
ETA: a smiley as I mean this in a friendly tone, not a confrontational one.
<< <i>John Williams and his "Shadow Government" are a little too far out there for me. To say that his opinions are heavily biased is an understatement. >>
Opinions are biased by shear definition. In his case I would consider them to be "professional" opinions given his profession. Seems like all people that were warning of our current economic crisis were a little too far out there at the time. A lot of Williams statistics are calculated the very same way the US calculated them before the US changed its methods to get the results it wanted.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I don't like to follow pundits, per se, but it is always interesting to have someone actually run through their thinking for us so we can see what that writer/interviewe is using for an argument. So, I'm just taking a break from yard work and thought to respond.
AUD, CAD, Swiss Franc yep, no reason to challenge that. US hyperinflation...man, that is a tough one and somehow, I just don't see it that way even though I can see why folk believe in it. Simple reason is that many of the US entitlements are tied to inflation, in particular SS which has to increase with inflation, by law so don't look for inflation to be on the official gov stats anywhere but we know it's there. We know that new local taxes, fees, license expenses (fed state local) are being announced on a monthly cue but hyperinflation...not in the sense that prices are going to skyrocket overnight. Taxation, regulation, fees, licenses, tolls...yeah, baby, it's comin' to you in spades. We know that cash in the market place is diminishing and electronic digit swapping is the future of wealth and look to gov having access to your digits...it's just gotta happen so it's hard to fault the interviewee here. You can even pay your taxes with a credit card...well, actually a credit account number with expiry date and last 4 digits; you don't even need cash or a check as a form of payment, just digibuks. Cash is so old fashioned.
There is really only one way to game the plays that the gov is going to put on us and that is to own wealth that is outside of the digibuk system, real physical ownership of something of value but we can call it something respectible like wealth preservation instead of gaming the plays. As the interviewee states, gold is the cleanest and purest way to hold transportable wealth. Only problem with being heavy into gold as a form of wealth preservation is that there still has to be someone on the other side of the deal that is willing to trade something to you for your gold. You might need some digibuks or some new shoes or something to eat but without someone on the other side of the deal, all you have is a hunk of noble metal that shines pretty nicely and has a lot melting temp. None the less, gold can not be ignored nor can silver, they both have to be part of the package just as physical cash is part of the package along with some farm land, a residence, maybe a little forex account and some equities...there's lots of options. There are plenty of places to stash your wealth other than digibuks and each person should have their nest eggs well distributed, lest the economic wolf finds one of the nests.
Generally, the article seemed to not be too far out, at least the premises of his arguments seem pretty well mainstream. In particular the paragraph about happy talk about our economic situation. I believe that there are a lot of people that don't know anything more than the nightly news, if even that, about our current situation. It's almost fashionable now for public figures to admit that they may have misspoke (lied) or misremembered (another word for lie) or understimated (pumped in too much blue sky) or overstated (got caught pumping too much blue sky), after all, we're all human. If something turns out to not be what was reported on the news people don't seem to mind.
Got Cash? >>
"Taxation, regulation, fees, licenses, tolls...yeah, baby, it's comin' to you in spades"
Finayyly someone along my lines of thinking!
This to me is "higher" inflation. But all the so called analysts say there is no inflation! WTF?
Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838
MACAU
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Cell: 512.808.3197
EMERGING MARKET GROUP
PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
As a reminder, we sell products to the manufacturing industry: Metal, wood, plastics, medical devices, a pretty broad spectrum of our industrial base.
1) 2010 sales are comparable to 2009-Flat
2) Cost of goods sold are up 4%.
3) Shipping costs up 3%
4) Finance charges ( customers that use credit cards) up 1%
5) Contractor business (home building industry), same as 09, down 90%. Until unemployment improves, this industry will continue to bleed.
6) Employees hours same as 2009, when we cut back all employee hours.
7) Expenses: 2% less than 2009
If trend continues the remainder of 2010 we'll show zero growth.
<< <i>Ok, time for a business up date, a bite of reality. Williams and everyother professional and financial guy can show charts, compare statistics, analyze trends, but it's us here in the "true" business world buying and selling products that have concrete data. (information) We don't reformulate income, assets or liabilities to "meet" numbers, they are what they are.
As a reminder, we sell products to the manufacturing industry: Metal, wood, plastics, medical devices, a pretty broad spectrum of our industrial base.
1) 2010 sales are comparable to 2009-Flat
2) Cost of goods sold are up 4%.
3) Shipping costs up 3%
4) Finance charges ( customers that use credit cards) up 1%
5) Contractor business (home building industry), same as 09, down 90%. Until unemployment improves, this industry will continue to bleed.
6) Employees hours same as 2009, when we cut back all employee hours.
7) Expenses: 2% less than 2009
If trend continues the remainder of 2010 we'll show zero growth. >>
Possible career change in your future?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
statistics or economic evaluations.
The Government speak is always the opposite of what will actually happen.
NO NEW TAXES means that their will be new and onerous taxes.
CUT WASTE IN FEDERAL SPENDING means absolutely nothing. Government is always inefficient, due to its
size and complexity. Waste is inherent in any such system and can not be reduced to any measurable degree.
WE WONT TOUCH SOCIAL SECURITY..Get ready to say by by to annual inflation increases. Say hello to higher retirement
age requirements as well as higher SS Taxes.
These things are not some sinister undertaking. It is just the inability of Government to tell the people
the truth and the inability of citizens to handle the truth. We know that we are being deceived, but that is easier
to handle then the facts. Thus in the end, the price is higher, the pain is greater and the suffering will be terrible.
The good news is that we will survive. Grandparents and parents are already transfering wealth to their children and
grandchildren in ,order for families to survive the difficult days ahead.If children have to come home to live, then that is
what will happen in order to survive. If folks have to grow victory gardens again, then that will happen.
Camelot