Why the Gold bears are wrong once again

Justacommeman

Article

MJ

MoneyLA

gosh, he made no mention of the reverse head and shoulders pattern in the first chart, though he did comment on the "box" which includes the top of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.

CaptHenway

Just remember that if all of the economists in the world were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion. Go with your gut.
TD

jmski52

Looks like a "shoulder pattern" to me. A shoulder, then another shoulder, then another shoulder, and another.

Like the man says - I don't expect the Fed to be withdrawing money any time soon.

Note, the charts don't cause a price to move. The market variables causes the price to move, and that creates the chart.

roadrunner

Degraaf may fail to mention the IH&S formation because according to the rules of TA, such a formation is only valid following a signficant downturn. The one we're looking at came at the end of major 6 year up-move. It technically doesn't fit the mold but the majority of analysts still call it an IH&S. I'd rather just call it a cup w/handle...the result is the same however.

Another thing I like from Degraaf is that he analyzes MO (monetary base) rather than just M1, M2, or estmated M3. There is much debate as to which one is a better predictor of future inflationary effects. But Degraaf's point is clear that every time M0 has been jacked up, inflation followed. The previous record increase in M0 was back in the 1980's and "only" around the 20-25% level. Yearly increased >10% have always caused problems. This time an all out Olympian effort was made to get to 3 digits....115%. My simple view on this is that the media publishes information on M1 and M2 and rarely talks about M0. This is significant because the FED/Treasury has taken advantage of this by reclassifying hundreds of billions of demand deposits from M1 and shifted them back into M0. While M1 used to run about $500 BILL larger than M0, it now runs about $200B short....a $700 BILL difference. What used to be the entire "pie" (M1), is now smaller than a single piece (M0). M0 is also the place where an additional $800 BILL in bank reserves were plopped in the 4th Qtr 2008. It's best for the pysche that people look only at M1 or M2 rather than M0.

MO and the FED's agency custodial account are just 2 ways to easily hide hundreds of billions in monetary supply increases. There are no doubt many others.

roadrunner

CaptHenway

Sorry, I thought this thread was about why the Chicago Bears are going to lose to Green Bay again this week........

CoinHusker

<< <i>Just remember that if all of the economists in the world were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion. Go with your gut.
TD >>

Bear

THE STAGE IS SET, FOR THE SHEEPLE TO BE WHIP SAWED.

AS USUAL, THEY WILL LISTEN TO ARGUMENTS BY BOTH SIDES

AND JUST AS USUAL, WILL MAKE THE WRONG DECISIONS.

Konahead

<< <i>THE STAGE IS SET, FOR THE SHEEPLE TO BE WHIP SAWED.

AS USUAL, THEY WILL LISTEN TO ARGUMENTS BY BOTH SIDES

AND JUST AS USUAL, WILL MAKE THE WRONG DECISIONS. >>




And in the end they will be taken to the slaughter!

Justacommeman

<< <i>THE STAGE IS SET, FOR THE SHEEPLE TO BE WHIP SAWED.

AS USUAL, THEY WILL LISTEN TO ARGUMENTS BY BOTH SIDES

AND JUST AS USUAL, WILL MAKE THE WRONG DECISIONS. >>



It would be extra cool if you were a gold bear........bear...........I mean actually made out of gold. Bear, if you were made out of gold how much would you be worth in USD?

MJ

cohodk

I'd rather just call it a cup w/handle..

Thats probably closer to what I would call it as well. And is why I dont believe the technical target of $1300 for an inverse H&S pattern will be reached.

renman95

I liked this paragraph: "Pretend you are in an auction hall. Just before the auctions begins, a wealthy individual enters and begins to hand out handfuls of hundred dollar bills to the bidders. What do you think will happen to the prices realized at that auction?"

MrOrganic

<< <i>I liked this paragraph: "Pretend you are in an auction hall. Just before the auctions begins, a wealthy individual enters and begins to hand out handfuls of hundred dollar bills to the bidders. What do you think will happen to the prices realized at that auction?" >>




I understand his point, but there is a flaw. All the attendees have to do is go next door to the next auction & the next auction & so on.


What I am saying there are thousands of auctions in the U.S.......Auction = "goods".

For true inflation doesnt there have to be a lack of "goods"? In addition IMO the avg consumer is realising there "buying spree" habits must change & now are cutting back &.......wait......SAVING!! ..I know ...no one ever though an american could do that lol

People saving, too many "goods", high labor force(illegals)..wouldnt this be deflationary?