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A story about another "fell through the cracks" coin in the recent Heritage auction>
BWRC
Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭
This time we are talking about a 1910 MPL cent graded PCGS PR66RB that is absolutely stunning. Here is the story of how I aquired this amazing MPL cent.
I am always searching the Registry Sets online to see images of nice coins. I pay particular attention to the MPL series registry as that is my specialty. I was browsing through the sets one day and noticed a real nice PCGS PR66RB 1910 MPL cent in one of the registry sets and thought. "wow what a coin" I would love to have a shot at buying that coin someday.
Awhile later I noticed the set owner had upgraded his 1910 slot from a PR66RB "this coin" to a PCGS PR66RD. I immediately contacted him and asked him if he would consider selling me his duplicate 1910 PCGS PR66RB MPL cent. He wrote back a few days later and asked me what I thought it was worth. I told him I would have to see it in hand but by the looks of his previous image I would pay him at least $5,000 for the coin if I liked it. He thanked me for my interest but didn't commit to anything in the future about this coin. The reason I offered him this amount was that I had sold two previous 1910 MPL cents graded PCGS PR66RB that were PQ for the grade between $5,500 and $7,500 when the market peaked at the summer ANA 8/08. I figured the current market value of this coin was between $6,000 to $6,500 retail because of the current economic downturn. I knew there was a recent sale in the Heritage Archives for a 1910 MPL cent that sold at the FUN auction in January 2009 for $2,530!!. Why would I offer someone $5,000 for this coin with this archive staring me in the face? Its because I previewed the coin in the archives before the FUN auction and imo the coin was very inferior in quality to the coin pictured here. I like to deal in quality coins!
So a few months go by and I see this 1910 I was interested in showing up in the previews for the Heritage Central States auction. I recognize the coin as the one I wanted to buy from the registry owner for $5,000. When I get to the show I immediately preview this 1910 MPL and to my satisfaction it was "all there" Rick was sitting next to me in the auction room where I told him I would bid up to $5,000+ the juice to win this coin. The auctioneer opens the lot at $2,400 and then asks for $2,600, I raise my hand and he says "SOLD"
I buy this coin for $2,990 including the buyers fee. There were only two coins I bought at the CSNS auction, the 1897 PCGS MS66RD "Pink Champagne" Indian Cent talked about on this board and this 1910 MATTE PROOF cent.
Later I am talking with Stewart Blay and he tells me he used to own the coin and tried it 3 or 4 times for a RD designation. With no success he gave up and sold. Rick also told me he thought the coin was super and should be called "RED"
OK Board! here is the question, What is the fair market value of this coin?
Here are the facts of the case
1. I offered the owner at least $5,000 if he would send me the coin to view prior to him putting it in this auction.
2. I had sold 2 PQ 1910 MPL graded PCGS PR66RB in 2008 between $5,500-$7,500 (IMO this coin is nicer than either of those two coins)
3. This coin was previously owned by Stewart who happens to have an "eye" for nice copper.
4. The coin is very PQ and about 95%+ red.
5. A very inferior quality coin in the same date grade holder sells Janaury 11, 2009 for $2,530 (I was not the buyer)
6. Also the auction image unfortunately showed what looked like a defect in the nose area that "WAS NOT ON THE ACTUAL COIN" Auction company image on right>
Comments welcomed.
I am always searching the Registry Sets online to see images of nice coins. I pay particular attention to the MPL series registry as that is my specialty. I was browsing through the sets one day and noticed a real nice PCGS PR66RB 1910 MPL cent in one of the registry sets and thought. "wow what a coin" I would love to have a shot at buying that coin someday.
Awhile later I noticed the set owner had upgraded his 1910 slot from a PR66RB "this coin" to a PCGS PR66RD. I immediately contacted him and asked him if he would consider selling me his duplicate 1910 PCGS PR66RB MPL cent. He wrote back a few days later and asked me what I thought it was worth. I told him I would have to see it in hand but by the looks of his previous image I would pay him at least $5,000 for the coin if I liked it. He thanked me for my interest but didn't commit to anything in the future about this coin. The reason I offered him this amount was that I had sold two previous 1910 MPL cents graded PCGS PR66RB that were PQ for the grade between $5,500 and $7,500 when the market peaked at the summer ANA 8/08. I figured the current market value of this coin was between $6,000 to $6,500 retail because of the current economic downturn. I knew there was a recent sale in the Heritage Archives for a 1910 MPL cent that sold at the FUN auction in January 2009 for $2,530!!. Why would I offer someone $5,000 for this coin with this archive staring me in the face? Its because I previewed the coin in the archives before the FUN auction and imo the coin was very inferior in quality to the coin pictured here. I like to deal in quality coins!
So a few months go by and I see this 1910 I was interested in showing up in the previews for the Heritage Central States auction. I recognize the coin as the one I wanted to buy from the registry owner for $5,000. When I get to the show I immediately preview this 1910 MPL and to my satisfaction it was "all there" Rick was sitting next to me in the auction room where I told him I would bid up to $5,000+ the juice to win this coin. The auctioneer opens the lot at $2,400 and then asks for $2,600, I raise my hand and he says "SOLD"
I buy this coin for $2,990 including the buyers fee. There were only two coins I bought at the CSNS auction, the 1897 PCGS MS66RD "Pink Champagne" Indian Cent talked about on this board and this 1910 MATTE PROOF cent.
Later I am talking with Stewart Blay and he tells me he used to own the coin and tried it 3 or 4 times for a RD designation. With no success he gave up and sold. Rick also told me he thought the coin was super and should be called "RED"
OK Board! here is the question, What is the fair market value of this coin?
Here are the facts of the case
1. I offered the owner at least $5,000 if he would send me the coin to view prior to him putting it in this auction.
2. I had sold 2 PQ 1910 MPL graded PCGS PR66RB in 2008 between $5,500-$7,500 (IMO this coin is nicer than either of those two coins)
3. This coin was previously owned by Stewart who happens to have an "eye" for nice copper.
4. The coin is very PQ and about 95%+ red.
5. A very inferior quality coin in the same date grade holder sells Janaury 11, 2009 for $2,530 (I was not the buyer)
6. Also the auction image unfortunately showed what looked like a defect in the nose area that "WAS NOT ON THE ACTUAL COIN" Auction company image on right>
Comments welcomed.
Brian Wagner Rare Coins, Specializing in PCGS graded, Shield, Liberty and Buffalo Nickels varieties.
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Comments
It's called "doing your homework" brother. Makes me jealous.
https://thepennylady.com/
Very nice looking coin though
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
<< <i>probably somewhere between $2500 and $7500
Very nice looking coin though
seems logical
So what's the value?
To a collector looking for a blazing example with gobs of original luster and a word of mouth pedigree (from Stewart's own mouth) maybe $10K. To a collector just looking for a 66RB to fill a hole in his registry set, maybe only $5K. The simple fact is that this coin is WAAAAAY too nice to sell for $5K, and any dealer worth his salt knows it. The real talent of a good coin dealer is being able to assess the value of a coin and to bring it to market at that value. Just because there's nobody out there buying right now, it doesn't mean he should sell for less.
As to this whole business of "lucking out" and being able to acquire the coin at such a stupidly low price... well, I mean that's what Brian and Rick and Andy and all those other guys in the auction room are there for, right? They're supposed to be the ones who can recognize a coin's value in the marketplace. And their ability to put food on their tables depends on their ability to acquire them at a low enough price that they can bring them to market at that fair price. And frankly, we should be thanking them for being there to catch these coins when they fall through the cracks. We should thank them for marketing them at fair values, as frankly it protects the value of our investments, the ones we already own.
Stunning coin! I wish I were there in the room with a fat wallet. But I'll tell you, if I were, and I wanted this coin, I know I'd either have to work with Brian or against him to acquire it. I don't know about you guys, but I'd much rather be on his side when the hammer falls. It's just too expensive the other way.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Thanks for the reply Matt,
The Matte Proof cent world can be a confusing one to come up with values that make sense. There is huge spreads in price for the same( holder date grade and color designation) due to lack of quality for grade and amazing quality for grade.
I wanted to tell the board about another coin that was offered to me recently. I know Matt is looking for a nice 1911 MPL cent in PCGS PR66RB so at the Central States show a dealer shows me a 1911 MPL cent in an NGC PF66RB holder that was "breath taking". The coin had a blazing mint fresh look with just a tad of toning laying on the surface to make one lean towards a Red Brown designation. I asked the dealer if he was going to try and cross the coin to PCGS? and if he did I would have a strong interest in the coin. I actually thought I would probably have to pay near 7,500 to aquire this coin if it crossed.
About a week later I get a call from the dealer. He tells me the coin has crossed to PCGS but he intends to put it in an upcoming auction but was willing to quote me a moon money price that if received would entice him from not going to auction with the coin. I said ok, what are you asking for the coin? He said $15,000!! I said thanks but no thanks and please let me know what upcoming auction the coin would be placed in. "true and very recent story"
On the other hand, one has to wonder what has happened to all the collectors - not just for Lincoln cents (although I got word today that many wheat cents fetched poor results at auction recently), but, nearly all coin series. Heck, even memorial cents recently - a (scarce and finest known) 1963-D Lincoln cent in PCGS-MS66RD fetched in the $500's just the other day. Yet, I sold one for a consignor less than a month ago for nearly 2x that amount. And, most of the other denominations are doing no better. In many cases, the collectors have simply stopped buying (and this comment obviously does not apply to mega-rarities or those 15%-20% of the premium quality coins out there that are always in demand).
Wondercoin
But I think that without the print, it looks very nice. BUT it’s a 1910, with a drop in prices, etc. So I would not see paying more than $3500 if I just had to have it. The current BV guide is $8,000 and is nuts. So let’s just say its good for $3500 in order to protect against a future drops.
WS
<< <i>There are lots of opportunities out there, if you know where to look. I'd keep it and put the coin away, since a nicer PR66RB 1910 MPL cannot exist! >>
I agree. The current market is no place for a coin like that, unless you can find a specialist who really needs it. Squirrel it away until confidence returns, then drop that cherry bomb in there.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Brian is a dealer. Dealers don't keep coins they turn their inventory to return a profit, Don't they.....
With that said I would be willing to offer Brian a nice quick profit and pay $$$$$$ (Brian can PM me
for my buy price) for the coin right now. I would then put it in my keepers box until better times.
By the time I would be willing to sell it Brian could have turned that money over many times for
probably more then he could have made holding onto the coin.......Make sense?.
<< <i>Based on the previous post, I believe I can confidently say the coin is worth at least $$$$$$. >>
It's not that pricey, its only a (4) $$$$ figure coin.
<< <i>Comments welcomed. >>
Brian, I think that's a gorgeous coin and it doesn't surprise me in the least that Stuart was one of the prior owners nor that you had your eye on it..
As for the value -- that's always a tough one to answer. As a customer, I feel strongly that I should share in the "windfall" savings, but as a salesman I can also understand trying to get the most of an investment. My gut says that a fair compromise is at a point less than your normal asking price. Not only do you still come out smelling a rose profit-wise, but you also build confidence in your customers by spreading your good fortune to them. Using your example, and if you think the coin is worth $7.5k retail, then perhaps you should consider selling it for $6.5k and leaving a bit of meat on the bone for your customers (presumably collectors, not flippers).
Respectfully...Mike
<< <i>
<< <i>Comments welcomed. >>
Brian, I think that's a gorgeous coin and it doesn't surprise me in the least that Stuart was one of the prior owners nor that you had your eye on it..
As for the value -- that's always a tough one to answer. As a customer, I feel strongly that I should share in the "windfall" savings, but as a salesman I can also understand trying to get the most of an investment. My gut says that a fair compromise is at a point less than your normal asking price. Not only do you still come out smelling a rose profit-wise, but you also build confidence in your customers by spreading your good fortune to them. Using your example, and if you think the coin is worth $7.5k retail, then perhaps you should consider selling it for $6.5k and leaving a bit of meat on the bone for your customers (presumably collectors, not flippers).
Respectfully...Mike >>
Hi Mike,
Thanks for your reply,
You are right on target with your suggestion but I will first make a try at upgrading this coin. Imo, it wouldn't look out of place in a PR67RB or PR66RD holder. It most likely will not but it's worth at least one try. I do have a few people waiting that would like a chance to buy this coin. I am sure they would like it to stay in this holder though.
Brian
I don't think I would be out of line in assuming this thread is because of my posts in the other thread. I don't have a beef with you personally or the coins in either thread. My comments are for the casual collector who may infrequently post or just simply read these boards and get caught up in the hype (or as Longacre would say a "well-managed-promotion(TM)") and forget some of the pros and cons of collecting expensive coins. For those of you looking for a classic "board fight," just put the popcorn icons up because neither Brian nor I are going to do that.
The coin itself is always important, and should be "all there" for the assigned grade. Secondly, a collector shouldn't forget the risk involved if they either want to get out of the coin or really need to get out of the coin. Not everybody can afford to toss off a few thousand bucks here and there, and no one can afford it if they really needed to sell. It's one thing to learn on $500 coins, and another to learn on $5,000 coins.
Prices on RB MPLs have gone to the moon in a very short time. It wasn't that long ago that I was buying and collecting 66RB MPLs like this one in the $1,000 range and actually had a full set in 66rb with the exception of a 1912 in 65RB. IMO, they were undervalued and under appreciated then, but only time will tell if they can sustain such a meteoric rise. My guess is that the coin looks like something between your picture and the Heritage picture. (Heritage is such a conundrum for Lincoln sellers - the widest audience, but the most horrendous Lincoln pictures).
Why PCGS calls coins like this Red-Brown, I have no idea. It's obviously a Red coin with a little toning and a finger swipe. As a "liner" coin, I could see them giving it a 65Red. Good luck with the sale. For comparison's sake, the coin in the link below is what I would call a Red Brown coin.
http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=517
Your assumptions are correct,
Your post about the 1897 MS66RD IHC was fine and many here thought the entire thread was very educational.
In a final summary I wanted to say this.
When I go to an auction and make an attempt to buy a "quality coin" I have two rules. After previewing the coin and I have assured myself the coin is all there, I ask my self what is the maximum I can sell this coin for in the present enviorment? Lets say I think this Matte Proof should sell for $7,500 but I also like to leave a little room for negotiation so I come up with a range of $6,500- $7,500. Now I figure my bidding strategy. I base this on what I paid recently for similiar coins that are somewhat comparable to the coin I am trying to buy. Lets say I paid $5,000 for the last quality 1910 in PCGS PR66RB I bought but it wasn't quite as nice as this one. So I come up with a maximum figure I am going to bid for the coin. In the case of this 1910 it was $5,000 + the juice of 15% or $$5,750. If someone else would have bid $5,250 in this auction I would not own this coin today. So I bid up to $2,600 and win this coin for $2,990. My expectations for selling this coin in the $6,500-$7,500 range still remain the same regardless of whether I paid $5,750 for the coin or $2,990. I will say that I have alot more room to discount the coin now than If I would have paid $5,750 for the coin. I most likely would accept an offer of $6,500 now because of the discounted price I won the coin for. What this "discounted price" doesn't do is to take away the "immense quality" of this coin. The coin in the link you supplied is a Minor league coin, I saw it at the FUN show in hand. This coin is in the Majors and might even up grade to PR66RD of which the last one in the archives sold for $11,500 in Feb. 2009. In fact, if you put this side by side with a PR66RD I bet it could hold it's own! Stewart owned it and told me he tried it a couple of times for PR66RD!
This will be my last post about this subject and I have no problem with you personally either. I think it was a good thing to put this subject on the table so there can be more understanding for all. Thanks for being professional as well in our discussions.
Over the years i have bought 100's of older proof coins for my collection. I have never tried to upgrade one although i know some are undergaded to me and should bump up a point. I did try to cross a 1915 MPL and it did not cross. Just a thought on this coin in question.
1. Most probably agree it is a solid 66 and the BWRC thinks it is worth at least 5000 plus juice.
2. It sold for 2600. Why? DID the internet bidders think it was not a 66 or were the pics bad to them? Why did another dealer not bite for a while during the auction? A lot of people will buy anything if they think they are getting a bargain. If i was in that auction room and wanted a MPL i would expect to bid against BWRC on any nice MPL's for a little bit anyway. If BWRC does not want it, why would i? Especially if it is underpriced. Why did Charmy not bid?? She has some great MPL's.
3. BRWC gets a second bargain of the night for which we most all agree. ( i wish my luck was that good every once in a while)
4. BRWC sends in to PCGS and gets a upgrade. ( probably will happen as you got the midas touch going at this moment)
5. Now what is the TRUE fair market value? Will it CAC??Who knows
I can see BWRC getting a killer price for this. A new collector steps up and writes the check knowing the whole histroy with Steward and all. ( a great history BTW) Something happens to this collector 6 months down the road and he has to sell. Nothing has really happened in the market for those 6 months but personal reasons dictates he has to sell. What will he get and from who. What if it goes to a heritage auction?
My mentaility will not allow me to buy this coin at anyprice except close to last sale price (2600 plus 750 max). Others it would probably not bother in the least. I make a good living but others do make more than i do. I will gamble on real estate in this market but not coins. But i am in the rent property business anyway. I view the coin market as hurting although i do not see prices reflecting that across the board. I see coins like this auction and others as all over the place with no logic. I was late to the mpl party but still managed to buy some at reasonable prices IMO and the run up since has at least keep me from losing if i chose to sell them.
There are many ways to look at this coin and price it. You can justify much higher price or........ I am glad i do not have to decide on this one. That why you BWRC are the expert. You get to figure it out. If i had to make a living selling coins, cars, boats etc. i would starve to death.
My thoughts in the last thread did not come off my typewriter as i intended. I bought a coin from BWRC a year or longer ago and he discounted the coin pretty good to help me out when he did not have to.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
Pennyannie,
First of all thanks for your comments.
Secondly, I do not have much hope for a gift from PCGS even if its warranted with this coin. I will most likely end up selling the coin as PR66RB.
Finally, If a collector buys this coin from me for $6,500 I would gladly give him a 1 yr no questions asked return priviledge of $5,750 on this coin because its outstanding quality. I would welcome back this old friend.
And yes, I did give you one heck of a deal on the 1914 MPL cent and thanks for the recognition about that transaction.
BW
Your hard work and skill paid off well.
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
C'mon you guys. We are paying thousands of dollars for pennies. Yes, pennies. Intrinsic value of one cent! It is all totally random. One week matte proofs are all the rage and bring big bucks. Next week the market is gone. These coins are only worth what some person is willing to pay on any given day. I would contend the coin is worth $2990, which is what BWRC paid for it. Magically, the coin is worth $7500 or even $10,000. Heck it might even be worth $50,000. If BWRC is able to get someone to pay crazy money for the coin, then I guess that is what it is worth. Again, remember that the value of a coin is only what someone will pay for it on any given day. Otherwise, it's just a penny.
Jack
<< <i>C'mon you guys. We are paying thousands of dollars for pennies. Yes, pennies. Intrinsic value of one cent! It is all totally random. One week matte proofs are all the rage and bring big bucks. Next week the market is gone. These coins are only worth what some person is willing to pay on any given day. I would contend the coin is worth $2990, which is what BWRC paid for it. Magically, the coin is worth $7500 or even $10,000. Heck it might even be worth $50,000. If BWRC is able to get someone to pay crazy money for the coin, then I guess that is what it is worth. Again, remember that the value of a coin is only what someone will pay for it on any given day. Otherwise, it's just a penny.
Jack >>
Jack,
First I should say that in principle, I agree with you. I can't think of how many times I've used the same words. "Yada, yada, it's only worth what someone will pay, yada, yada." BUT, something else is happening here. Haven't you noticed that a lot of junk has hit the market since the hotness of July and August? It's like, all holders of junk said... hey, look at all these high prices. Let's make a buck! Two or three "bad apples" in a particular date, and the price drops right along with it. That doesn't do a lot for investor confidence. It's like: Hey! Auction Archives for the past three sales are pitiful. Why should I pay top dollar, even for a nice one? The sky is falling! Now, couple that with the floundering economy, and you've got the perfect storm. Some big fish dealers aren't buying ANYTHING that isn't sold already. This atmosphere creates some pretty stellar opportunities for someone perserverent enough to fly to the show, and fortunate enough to have the capital opportunity to take advantage.
Now, I'm also of the opinion that coins have two kinds of value. One is a basal value, like saying that any SVDB is worth $500 or more. The more depends on quality. Dealers must be able to place an accurate value on the coin's quality. I just find it hard to believe that just because the economy sucks, a coin's value is immediately returned to basal.
I'm going to stop writing, now. I'm running on my 22nd hour without sleep, and my eyes are involuntarily shutting.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
that is their job.
You are also talking about what may be one of the finest 1910's known.
btw If its only a penny I will gladly come to your house, and let you spread your collection in front of me, from which I will hand pick fifty pennies, and give you two worn clad quarters. for....after all...it is only a penny. shesshhhh c'mon ......