Now this is a pack I want to rip
80sJunkie
Posts: 1,314
My goal is to buy one of these this year at national and rip it in front of a crowd and cameras
0
Comments
Go Phillies
I hope your dream comes true!
<< <i>Any way to calculate odds about what's inside ?
storm! Isn't that right up your alley?! I don't remember who's so adept at the math of calculating the odds of stuff...
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If we had some total-production estimates, and some star-frequency estimates,
we could prolly get pretty close.
The best estimates would still put it deep into the "lottery category," but there could
be strong potential for at least partial loss-mitigation on a pack like that.
Shares could likely be sold to bust such packs.
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I think so, too.
"The Wax-Rip Channel"
The set runs from #1 (Pafko) through #407 (Mathews). There are 5 cards (yes only 5) per pack, so if you're talking about the odds of hitting a Mantle, then it would be 5/407 or .0122 = appx 1.2% chance. This isn't entirely true as there are variations of the cards (initial black backs #1-80 versus the "improved" red backs and the white versus more rare grey backs #131-190) but this won't change the odds much. This is especially irrelevant when you get to the meat of the situation a little later. Even if all these variations were figured into the odds as if they were additional cards in the set equally seated, there would still be about a 1/100 chance of getting a Mantle from one pack. And if you count the 3 variations in the high series, then the odds actually jump up to 1.8%.
Again, none of that really matters. What makes it all totally irrelevant is the fact that the only way to pull a Mantle is if you have a late series pack, specifically series 2 or 6 depending on how you classify them. The Mantle card can only be found in packs from the last series which ran cards #311 (Mantle) through #407.
So if you don't have a pack from this last series, you have a 0% chance of pulling a Mantle. The good news is if you DO have such a pack you have a 5/97 chance of pulling a Mantle or .0515 = appx 5.15%. But it gets even better later.
FYI the breakdown of the six series print runs are 1-80, 81-130, 131-190, 191-250, 251-310, and 311-407. So if you know what series or can see one of the cards in the pack, you'll know what cards you could possibly pull.
As I'm sure you all likely know, the last series came out much later in the season (which is why it's called series 2, but really it's series 6) and didn't sell well. So there are fewer of these cards around, and likely fewer packs, as well. There's also the story of the Topps employees dumping cases of series 6 making packs probably even more rare.
But the BEST news for people who have series 6 packs is that it's believed that the three cards with the variations in the high series (Mantle, #312 Jackie Robinson, and #313 Bobby Thomson) were double printed. Meaning they are printed twice as frequently as any other card. Adding these three players twice onto a sheet with the other 97 players (of which Mantle is one) gives you 100 cards. A nice even printing number for a printing sheet.
Proof of this double frequency of the Mantle and further insight into the likelihood of pulling a Mantle is found no further than Al Rosen (yea!). He found a bunch of high number packs and in busting/sorting them, he found he pulled 17-18 of every player, except Mantle, Robinson and Thompson of which he found he had twice as many. So if you want to truly get the odds of puling a Mantle from a 6th series pack you'll have two chances in 100 cards (1/50), 5 times per pack = 10% chance of pulling a Mantle! Not bad...
The key is in finding a series 6 pack.
But if you pretend that there is an equal likelihood of any pack being from any series, you've got a 1/6 chance of having a pack capable of pulling a Mantle (duh!). Multiply those odds to your 1/10 chance of pulling a Mantle from a series 6 and you have an overall 1/60 chance of pulling a Mantle from any given pack = appx 1.7%. Which is about the same odds if you figure in all the variations including the 2 Mantles as I did above (1.8%), so it's likely pretty accurate. But since series 6 packs are probably much more rare, that's not entirely true, but it gives you an idea of what you're looking at from any given random pack. About 1.75%
But even without pulling the coveted Mantle, you could still make back some of your $3-5,000 pack break depending on who you pull and the condition of the cards. I don't know what the population of 1952 high-grades are right now, but I'm sure we all know how crazy registry and high-end set collectors can get.
I for one would love to see a 1952 pack break. It would probably give this board's 1972 case break a run for its money.
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That is good, because that is MY job.
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"The key is in finding a series 6 pack. "
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Yup.
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"But even without pulling the coveted Mantle, you could still make back some of your $3-5,000 pack break depending on who you pull and the condition of the cards. "
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That's what I meant by strong potential for loss-mitigation.
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"It would probably give this board's 1972 case break a run for its money."
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You think ?
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Your info is a totally excellent start. Even if your numbers are off substantially,
the odds may still be WAY inside of high-end lottery numbers.
Once a pack is in a holder, we may have lost the chance to accurately
judge by lighting up the back card. Some one else will have already
at least tried to do that. If any one of the last series cards is there,
we know we are at the right door; that means that the last series
cards are probably the least likely to be slabbed --- if the owner
knew what you have detailed.
The ideal slabbed pack then is, obviously, one that we can see the
back card and say that it is last series. The next preference, is no
visible back card. The last preference, (I would pass on that break)
is a visible card from any series other than the last one.
I would really like to know some full production estimates to better
understand the numbers.
We would also need to know if there was any way - other than
seeing the back card - to determine which series a given pack contained.
SMR breaks the cards into four groups, for values; 311 > are their $ cards.
Good job, Jeff.
incredible insight/mathmatics JeffD .... I almost had math nightmares from my high school days just reading it.
80s --- honestly, I would potentially pay an admission fee to watch you bust that pack.
Go for it!
-t
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
I've sent some emails to people who may know. And of course if someone here knows, please correct me. This is why I added a disclaimer to my statement and generally spend most my time lurking.
Hopefully the guy that found this sweet old lady and her eighty-four unopened packs may know something.
btw, there is a 1 in 8 chance of getting a mantle in a high series pack.
pat
Suppose there were only 5 cards available in the set and 2 cards in each pack. Let's suppose they are valued like this:
Card A - $100
Card B - $200
Card C - $300
Card D - $400
Card E - $500
Assuming all cards are equally likely to be chosen (20%), we can calculate the "expected value" of a pack like this:
Card A - 40% chance (2 cards) of getting a $100 card is worth $40
Card B - 40% chance of getting a $200 card is worth $80
Card C - 40% chance of getting a $300 card is worth $120
Card D - 40% chance of getting a $400 card is worth $160
Card E - 40% chance of getting a $500 card is worth $200
Add up these values and you get $600 as the "expected value" of this pack.
I just did the same thing using SMR values for a 1952 pack from each series (defining "series" as the SMR does)
Expected value of a series 1 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 7 = $1226
Expected value of a series 2 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 7 = $521
Expected value of a series 3 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 7 = $812
Expected value of a series 4 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 7 = $4919
Expected value of a series 1 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 8 = $5396
Expected value of a series 2 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 8 = $1889
Expected value of a series 3 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 8 = $2285
Expected value of a series 4 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 8 = $10682
Expected value of a series 1 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 9 = $17385
Expected value of a series 2 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 9 = $7295
Expected value of a series 3 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 9 = $9135
Expected value of a series 4 pack where all 6 cards grade PSA 9 = $32632
Unrealistic assumptions that may affect these values are the "extra printing" of Mantle, Robinson, and Thompson would bump up the value of a series 4 pack. Wax/gum damage to 1 card per pack would bump all values down.
<< <i>So, if 6 of us went in on the pack and each received 1 card (position determined before opening of course), then what is the cost per person? >>
We could also sell "Shares" at $100.00 per share. The nimber of shares available would depend on the pack price.
My daughter was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes at the age of 2 (2003). My son was diagnosed with Type 1 when he was 17 on December 31, 2009. We were stunned that another child of ours had been diagnosed. Please, if you don't have a favorite charity, consider giving to the JDRF (Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation)
JDRF Donation
Lee
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That is TOTALLY correct.
But, the odds that you "might" pull a Mantle, can be calculated.
Another random funny poker quote I heard a few weeks ago was when one guy was picking on another guy at the table for being cheap, said: "This guy wouldn't pay a nickel to see a miracle."
You do hear some funny stuff at the poker table.
Lee
The picture of the old lady with the packs was a buy that was led by Mark Murphy, when he was still a player in the unopened market.
From: Mark
Subject: RE: Question regarding Topps 1952 packs
Hi jeff, 5 cards per pack, the way to tell the series is to see a card
showing through the wrapper which is almost impossible for most packs,
thanks, mark
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So this was pretty much the information I had before. Then I checked my messages from ebay and the guy that made me initially question my thinking that there were 5 cards per pack had this to say:
Hi Jeff,
In 1952 and 1953, topps issued 1 card penny packs and 6 card nickel packs. Curiously, in 1954 the nickel packs contained just 5 cards. They resumed the 6-card nickel packs in 1955 through 1960. I've had the pleasure of opening some of these beauties, and can comfirm[sic] this information from experience. I haven't seen too much printed on the subject, however the 2005 Beckett Almanac includes original information on packaging and pricing in the set descriptions. I believe Mark (The Baseball Card Kid) would know even more about the different sorts of packaging available for the period. You can reach him through his website...
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Thought it was pretty funny that the guy I was being referred to in the second message had already given me conflicting information. With the responses here on the boards, and the second guy's claim that he had opened some packs himself, I was ready to believe 6. But since he thinks Mark would know more, and Mark says 5 and has a website showing actual pictures of packs he found, I just don't know. Makes me feel a little better though about not knowing for sure myself.
I may need some more info from someone. I've personally not found any info on the 1 card penny packs from 1952 Topps (although I have found a few mentions of 1 card penny packs from Bowman in 1952, and the 1951 Topps red and blue backs came 2 to a one cent pack). That makes me wonder a little about the second guy's info. And if there were one penny packs with 1 card, it might make sense that 5 penny packs had 5 cards. But I guess it would also make sense to add in an extra card as an incentive to buy the larger packs.
Again...not questioning you guys, but any thoughts?
regarding the full box being reauctioned-- i heard the same thing but i dont know the answer. that is a good question.
edit- i understand the card shows thru the penny packs.
Lee
(position determined before opening of course), then what
is the cost per person?"
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Joint-ventures on such items do not work well on that basis.
The folks who buy-in would be the owners of the entire pack.
Proceeds/Losses would be shared based on the value of the
liquidated pack, and the percentage-interest held by the
participants.
The organizer should not be a "general-partner." Each share
is purchased by each participant at the same price.
If there were 100-shares at $1C, two medium-grade slabbed
packs could be done on the first round. That would prolly leave
enough in the pot to hire an expert to help assure that the
packs contained fourth-value tier cards (previously called
"sixth-series").
After the first round, loss-mitigation could yield another pack.
Participants could bail-out to each other/third-parties, at any
time. Share-prices would fluctuate based on demand.
A time limit of something less than 180-days seems reasonable
to see first-round results.
The rips could be publicized on the video-sites, and advertisers
would likely want to be on the hype pages.
Lots of possibilities.
Card Target
I wish I had bought a pack from Murphy a few years ago for 1750$ - from that "find" with the pic of the old lady and the 8 pack cellos.
<< <i>i believe the last box sold for just over $220,000. its a 24 pack box with 6 cards per pack. that was over a year ago.
Pshhh........ they sell those at Target for $10. I can get them any time.
<< <i>Must I whine again?
I wish I had bought a pack from Murphy a few years ago for 1750$ - from that "find" with the pic of the old lady and the 8 pack cellos.
yeah I was at a Show in Cranston RI right after Mr. Mint bought one of his huge finds. I bought a Jordan rookie and 66 mantle and made money on those a few weeks later. One of the dealers at that show I know personally bought a bunch of packs. One pack yielded a PSA 10 mantle and a few years later I believe one had the PSA 10 Pafko, unsure about the pakfo. I know a dealer who bought a few of the 52 packs and pulled the mantle and the owner sent it in for grading and it did come back a 10. The same dealer from those packs also pulled a JAckie Robinson, sodl to the same owner, which was later graded a 9! I was too young and too broke to even mess with those things. I was about 15, but I had enough for a Jordan Rc and 66 Mantle
ted--i heard pretty much the same thing as well.
so who is sitting on all these?? you cant take them to the grave with you.
Just a general idea if anyone wants to run with it.
Oh yeah I wish they were still 1750 a pack i would rip 2
<< <i>Hopefully I can get it all on tape and share the experience with you guys >>
That would be cool
My daughter was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes at the age of 2 (2003). My son was diagnosed with Type 1 when he was 17 on December 31, 2009. We were stunned that another child of ours had been diagnosed. Please, if you don't have a favorite charity, consider giving to the JDRF (Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation)
JDRF Donation
<< <i>the box in the previous post was sold in a Mastro auction 1-2 years ago and was part of the Canadian find of '52 Topps. Not OPC, but all markings on the pack were that they were printed in Cancada. It did sell for $220,000 or so. It was then listed in a Goodwin auction(I think it was Goodwin) several months later, and sold for about $40,000 less, if memory serves me correct. Never found out why that happened. Anyone know?
The picture of the old lady with the packs was a buy that was led by Mark Murphy, when he was still a player in the unopened market. >>
I've asked the exact question a few times here and never got a response. The initial reason why the first buyer had to sell was for a medical emergency right after he bought it. I thought that was an odd coincidence, plus if the guy could afford that much money on the packs, you think he would have good medical insurance (which would cover 85-90% of such emergency). Did he discover something after the fact?
<< <i>I for one would love to see a 1952 pack break. It would probably give this board's 1972 case break a run for its money. >>
What 1972 case break?????????????????? I've been waiting patiently for one to happen here and all I see is a 1978 break. Please tell me that was a typo or was it wishful thinking?
<< <i>Boy what did i start here this thread has spiraled all different ways. I was just sharing what i am hoping to do at national this year. Im gonna find me one of those packs and rip that sucker. Hopefully I can get it all on tape and share the experience with you guys.
Oh yeah I wish they were still 1750 a pack i would rip 2 >>
make sure you find me when you do....I'll bring my camera and take an MPG of the entire thing!
I've asked the exact question a few times here and never got a response. The initial reason why the first buyer had to sell was for a medical emergency right after he bought it. I thought that was an odd coincidence, plus if the guy could afford that much money on the packs, you think he would have good medical insurance (which would cover 85-90% of such emergency). Did he discover something after the fact?
when he bought the box, did he know it was a Canadian box? There are only 4 cards to a Canadian pack--again, not talking about OPC here. MAstro did not really advertise the fact that they were from Canada, but did say that there were 4 cards per pack, not 6. That's a big difference. Not sure if this is why the box was resold.
How much do they go for now?
BBCE has 2 packs for sale PSA-6 at $5,500...get 'em if you can afford 'em
BBCE Link
<< <i>
make sure you find me when you do....I'll bring my camera and take an MPG of the entire thing! >>
Make sure you put it on youtube, as there are *tons* of people that'd want to see that rip!
<< <i>Not that I don't trust you guys, but I got back two responses. The first one I read is from the guy who found all those packs from the lady above. His name is Mark and he's known as the the Baseball Card Kid. I contacted him through his website. He wrote me this brief message:
From: Mark
Subject: RE: Question regarding Topps 1952 packs
Hi jeff, 5 cards per pack, the way to tell the series is to see a card
showing through the wrapper which is almost impossible for most packs,
thanks, mark
-------------------
So this was pretty much the information I had before. Then I checked my messages from ebay and the guy that made me initially question my thinking that there were 5 cards per pack had this to say:
Hi Jeff,
In 1952 and 1953, topps issued 1 card penny packs and 6 card nickel packs. Curiously, in 1954 the nickel packs contained just 5 cards. They resumed the 6-card nickel packs in 1955 through 1960. I've had the pleasure of opening some of these beauties, and can comfirm[sic] this information from experience. I haven't seen too much printed on the subject, however the 2005 Beckett Almanac includes original information on packaging and pricing in the set descriptions. I believe Mark (The Baseball Card Kid) would know even more about the different sorts of packaging available for the period. You can reach him through his website...
------------------
Thought it was pretty funny that the guy I was being referred to in the second message had already given me conflicting information. With the responses here on the boards, and the second guy's claim that he had opened some packs himself, I was ready to believe 6. But since he thinks Mark would know more, and Mark says 5 and has a website showing actual pictures of packs he found, I just don't know. Makes me feel a little better though about not knowing for sure myself.
I may need some more info from someone. I've personally not found any info on the 1 card penny packs from 1952 Topps (although I have found a few mentions of 1 card penny packs from Bowman in 1952, and the 1951 Topps red and blue backs came 2 to a one cent pack). That makes me wonder a little about the second guy's info. And if there were one penny packs with 1 card, it might make sense that 5 penny packs had 5 cards. But I guess it would also make sense to add in an extra card as an incentive to buy the larger packs.
Again...not questioning you guys, but any thoughts? >>
Hey Jeff, that was me who gave you the second response, lol. I thought Mark would know but it looks like he gave you a wrong answer, or made a mistake. If you really want an affirmative answer beyond what you've received so far, you could always contact Topps, and again it may be that nobody working there now can even verify this information but I definately think they should be able to.
<< <i>the box in the previous post was sold in a Mastro auction 1-2 years ago and was part of the Canadian find of '52 Topps. Not OPC, but all markings on the pack were that they were printed in Cancada. >>
Are you sure about this? The pack in the upper left corner clearly reads made and printed in the USA.
<< <i>My goal is to buy one of these this year at national and rip it in front of a crowd and cameras
You might end up in front of cameras sometime this year, but I doubt for reasons you anticipated.
-- Yogi Berra