2006 world series flaws...
flykite
Posts: 147 ✭
......1) prediction: this "contest" will be won by loading up on bullion-sensitive coins, in large quantities, which
leads to....2) no one (I am guilty of this!) should be allowed to "own" all coins of any kind in a particular population: example- I "own" all 246 of 1948 Franklins in MS66FBL and 298 of 1921 Peace Dollars in MS65.
It's just not realistic; I feel like the Hunt brothers trying to corner the silver market in 1980!
This is not portfolio management, hence, my fund name (Gordon Gekko). Guidelines should be in place to encourage diversity, but remember, "greed is good"!!
leads to....2) no one (I am guilty of this!) should be allowed to "own" all coins of any kind in a particular population: example- I "own" all 246 of 1948 Franklins in MS66FBL and 298 of 1921 Peace Dollars in MS65.
It's just not realistic; I feel like the Hunt brothers trying to corner the silver market in 1980!
This is not portfolio management, hence, my fund name (Gordon Gekko). Guidelines should be in place to encourage diversity, but remember, "greed is good"!!
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Comments
JMHO Jon
I bought 1500+ 1997-S Silver Kennedy's and they went up like $15. It was great.
Later, Paul.
Later, Paul.
Wondercoin
Since none was purchased my goal for the year is to go through the whole thing without any lost money on a item that has been purchased.
Concerning owning all of a certain grade. Why not ? Presently I own all of the examples for 6 or 7 different items. Man thats a bunch of Merc Dimes.....
Ken
They are required by LAW to have a date, denomination, IN GOD WE TRUST, Liberty, E Pluribus Unum and the United States Of America on then amongst other things.
Do I care that someone can come in a swoop up all the bullion coins and win this event that PCGS was nice enough to put together...heck no...because I am a collector first and a non-collector second, and I had no intention of winning because I don't know a damn thing about selling coins other then eBay.
Flykite...you are absoluetly right...it is unrealistic that anyone can own all of one coin in one grade and totally monopolize that end of the market. It makes it for an unfair game and makes it no fun. I was all physched up for this and wound up buying coins that I too would love to own. So in a way, I made it fun for me!
Later, Paul.
Later, Paul.
Some of you guys just crack me up!
I'm watching those coin hucksters on TV (I have no life!) imploring me to buy those MS69 bullion..er..Walkers at this GREAT price; my point being, in years to come, they will be about as collectible as "high-grade" modern baseball cards---boy, did that market collapse! Ed
<< <i>I disagree, bullion coins ARE NOT coins. They are bullion!! Your buying nothing but silver or gold or plat. not coins! >>
Lets dissect this statement, "bullion coins", did you say "coins" are not "coins".
Then lets go to the statement "Like they would ever circulate!" by flykite, will Bust coins circulate? No not anymore that a proof gold eagle will. Will proof coins circulate? No. So why is a legal tender Silver American eagle any different (other than age, than an 1804 Dollar, or proof gold from the 19th century?
Bust coins DID circulate, as did virtually every other coin INTENDED FOR THAT PURPOSE!
Bullion coins ARE bullion coins-that is there intent, that's why they were created, and that's why ALL OF THEM HAVE TROY OUNCE INFO ON THEM!!!
<< <i>clack: Proof are not intended to circulate, rather they are struck as collector coins; we all know that!
Bust coins DID circulate, as did virtually every other coin INTENDED FOR THAT PURPOSE!
Bullion coins ARE bullion coins-that is there intent, that's why they were created, and that's why ALL OF THEM HAVE TROY OUNCE INFO ON THEM!!! >>
My point was that if we leave out bullion then we must also leave out proofs, classics or not, using the same logic.
<< <i>......1) prediction: this "contest" will be won by loading up on bullion-sensitive coins >>
All coins are, to some point, bullion-sensitive. There just isn't any logic to this arguement.
Also, no person really knows what is contained in anyone else's portfolio, so this thread's poster must have some inside info., that perhaps he/she should have acted upon, rather than complain about.
<< <i>No, your logic doesn't work; proofs and classics are legit; BULLION, ie, COINS INTENDED TO ONLY BE BULLION (legal tender or not) should be excluded precisely because they are metal-sensitive, and move in value ONLY when spot prices spike....Ed >>
It was not my logic it was yours. you said that "like they would ever circulate" -> what about proofs was my point. your logic stated they are not real coins because they were made for bullion purposes. My point was that 18th century proofs were made for the same reason, ahhh actually ALL 18th century coins were bullion coins -> hard money. i give up.
With gold poised to go much higher this year (we have a nut in the white house, no more Greenspan, economic expansion in China & India, AND a maniac in Iran) all one has to do to win this thing is load up on the bullion coins and sit back for the ride.
Clack- you need to study the history and purpose of proofs to get my point. I too give up!!
Anybody who truly believes that to be the case need not concern themselves with the $10,000 WS prize in 12/06 - they could potentially make a heck of a lot more money buying Gold options the rest of this year.
People ask me all the time where I think the price of Gold is going. If I had better than a 50-50 shot of answering that question correctly, rest assured, I would be loading up on Gold contracts and not wasting my time selling coins the rest of this year.
Wondercoin
I wish I could load up on the biggest gainers, which are most likely not bullion coins, imho. If we could ask those who have had the biggest gains, I strongly doubt that those gains would be mostly due to the recent basic metal/bullion price increases.
In any game, some could see flaws and faults and therefore, not like the game, and some play by the rules and have fun. Perhaps, in future World Series some of this year's rules will change.
Good luck to all participants.
I don't dislike the game, nor do I dislike bullion; I am just pointing out that ANY game concerning numismatics could be better served if it were about portfolio management, and I totally disagree with YOUR perception that we would all have the same generic portfolio with the same score. Bullion aside, not putting limits on how many of a single coin one could own is not realistic! Having that limit alone would force participants to do there homework and spread out over a virtually unlimited variety and type one would have in a portfolio.
Look, I am the case in point; I only have 6 items, but they total 597 coins! Is this a realistic portfolio?
NO!!!
In investing, in general, there is the opportunity to be heavy in just a few or even one investment vehicle, or, as is widely recommended, have a fully balanced portfolio. Placing limits, other than the entire outstanding inventory of any particular vehicle, on an available investment is not how it works in the portfolio management of other investments, but, here there is already a huge limit due to the fact that we are only dealing with PCGS graded coins, a mere fraction of those coins available in the real marketplace, leaving plenty of room for collectors to learn about numismatics in general, but this huge limit IS the game.
Really the single largest point to the game is to correct and adjust to "as good as possible" the PCGS price guide, as well as have a little fun in the process, and from doing their homework, participants will get the bonus of a little education. I hope that, within the existing rules, all or most are having fun. Again good luck to all in this regard.
<< <i>Registry:
I don't dislike the game, nor do I dislike bullion; I am just pointing out that ANY game concerning numismatics could be better served if it were about portfolio management, and I totally disagree with YOUR perception that we would all have the same generic portfolio with the same score. Bullion aside, not putting limits on how many of a single coin one could own is not realistic! Having that limit alone would force participants to do there homework and spread out over a virtually unlimited variety and type one would have in a portfolio.
Look, I am the case in point; I only have 6 items, but they total 597 coins! Is this a realistic portfolio?
NO!!! >>
I agree Flykite-- in fact I HAD to buy common Saints (near bullion) because all the rare coins were taken-- except of coarse the 1948 Frankies in 66FBL--(because I'm looking at two in my hand!!!!)
<< <i>...because all the rare coins were taken >>
If we were to disqualify all the "bullion" coins next year, and require that a participant wasn't allowed to have over a certain percentage of a particular type, in other words, have a more diversified portfolio, then that would leave even fewer of the so-called "rare coins," especially if next year there were more participants.
Also, allowing participants to "bulk up" on particular issues may mean that more rare coins are available, in that not all of those who have a substantial portion of their portfolio in one particular type will be correct, which would eliminate their entire portfolio, or that large portion dedicated to one type, from the competition for the "rare coins" that do go up in value.
I can see that some feel that the rules are unfair, especially if their portfolios are not at the top, or their "score" isn't as high as they would like, but I do not think these particular complaints are very well thought out.
Waiting for the price of any of my "classic crap" to move is like watching paint dry.
Larry
Dabigkahuna
It shouldn't include commemoratives (old or new). Right? No one bought any of those, right?
Didn't the original coins have the amount dictated by the bullion content? A dime had 10c worth of silver or something?
I would agree with the "sour grapes" comment. Everyone wants to be a purist at some point. If you don't like the rules of the game, then don't play the game.
Don't come into the game just whining.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Some collectors are just catching on to the low mintages, and starting to collect these coins (for real or fantasy), and more collectors means heavier demand which puts heavy pressure on price, as can easily be seen with the steady upticks in sales prices.
Noteworthy is that the plats are the first U.S. coins that sport the "$" sign. These are not generic rounds, but as is now being seen, highly collectible coins, and great to collect in the real world, fantasy world, or, if you can find them, both.
roadrunner
When in real life, has just under $50,000,000 been evenly split between just under 500 people to spend $1,000,000 each on a particular set of (PCGS-graded) coins?
It's a contest, with rules, which have been explained in detail by those who established the contest, and agreed to by those who desired to take part.
That's all.