It seems to me that . . .
Mac53
Posts: 805 ✭
. . . prices on ebay for vintage of late is going for very close to SMR or higher. This seems to me to be a good deal higher than even 4 or 5 months ago, but I don't keep records. Does anyone track the prices enough to show any kind of a trend? Do you guys have a rule of thumb for percentage of SMR to pay for "on-bay" and "off-bay"?
"Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well."
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Groucho Marx
I do think there is perhaps a little blip during the beginning of the season and the end, but it's minor. Not enough to buy offseason and sell world series time and make anything worthwile.
GG
<< <i>perhaps a little blip during the beginning of the season and the end, but it's minor. Not enough to buy offseason and sell world series time and make anything worthwile. >>
Interesting. I'm seeing a big increase, though, I think. I'm a real newby, but it seems to me that 2-3 months ago, 75% of SMR would buy anything. Not so right now, though. I'm just looking at a very, very narrow section, though.
I had to keep smacking my hand to not bid on this one on eBay. I think $700 is totally worth it even though it is a 2 it's a great looking card and the holy grail of hockey cards. I'm just curious what SMR is for it and a 1 also. My wife would have castrated me if I had won it unfortunately.
5--3250
6-4650
7--6250
8-11500
No this is not an add for a brokerage firm, just that I trade for a living and I see patterns/correlations all the time.
good observation fellow hobbyist/sportscard investor...
1)Knuckles, your mag is on the way so you'll be able to look up that hockey junk on your own soon.
2)I agree the stock market is closely tied to cards. When the bottom fell out a few years ago card prices when spiraling downward, I think I even remember a Beckett article on the subject around that time.
3)I keep a little notebook by my desk to track some of the cards I'm interested in and I have NOT seen a big up-stroke in prices.
Examples: I had tracked PSA 7 Rose sells at $910 and $870, but one ended last night at $660.
I had tracked PSA 7 Sayers RC at $200, $212, and $187 but one ended at $168 recently.
I had tracked PSA 7 Koufax RC at $925 and $715, but one ended recently at $575.
On a smaller level, I picked up a PSA 8 Molitor RC for $31 last night, but have tracked sales at $40, $38, and $42.
Maybe you're referring to pre-war prices which I haven't tracked, but this is what I have noticed. Here's hoping I'm wrong and all my cards go skyrocketing through the ceiling in value.
BigRed, does your tracking include the time and day the auctions end, the quality of the scans, and the feedback of the sellers? All those factors can play a huge role in final prices. I bought a 53B Musial that ended on a Saturday afternoon, photo sucked, and the seller had very low feedback. I resold it and wth all those negatives fixed in my own auction, almost doubled my money. (It was a risk, sure, but the point illustrates how prices can vary on the very same card)
A strong market will make people more confortable and they will spend more, but the current stock market we are in and have been for a while, its quite stagnant and full of insecurities and mixed good/bad news everyday.
I think that when the markets are underperforming, or barely staying afloat, lots of people start looking for hard assets, real state, gold, art, coins and to a lesser extend baseball cards.
While i strongly oppose collecting baseball cards as an investment, I think that cards have a really nice combination of being an asset that could do well during both good times and bad times.
Take gold as an example, its a "negative" factor, when times are bad ( the dollar falls, insecurities, terrorists attacks) the value of gold would rise and when times are good gold values drop.
Baseball cards have always have the strong emotional value, meaning when things in the economy are going well, People will add cards to their collections and due to demand prices should increase nicely.
Usually when times would be bad people would stop buying baseball cards, But this has changed in the last 20 years or so. Baseball cards have now proven that are a serious hobby with a nice long history of steady returns. Nothing wild 2-5% a year.
So when your mutual funds are taking a beating, many people now would not stop buying baseball cards because in their mind baseball cards are a solid Proven investment and there is also the psycological aspect of owning something tangible.
In a bad economy most things would do bad, but baseball cards will most likely do better than the stock market due to the current view of cards as hard assets, In a good economy cards will probably not do as good as the stock market but they would still gain value.
so baseball cards are affected by the stock market, but not nessesarily directly influenced by it.
Groucho Marx
I think this is an awesome post and really an interesting facet of Ebay. It's amazing the impact that the smallest things have when it comes to selling an item....
No, my list isn't quite that sophisticated, but I couldn't agree with you more than the things you mentioned make a huge difference. As a matter of fact, the PSA 8 Molitor/Trammell rookie I won last night so cheaply had a poor scan.
PSA 8
But the seller had a nice feedback so I gave it a try.
Two other factors to add to your list. You can also "steal" a card when the seller lists it incorrectly in the title. You'd be surprised how many times the title says "Payton" when describing a Manning card or "Peyton" when discribing a Walter Payton card. Or the year is off, listed in the wrong section, spelling errors, etc.
Also, if you're willing to take the chance, buyers who do not offer Paypal lose A LOT of money in my opinion, whether it be people don't feel protected by a money order (which they're not) or are too impatient/busy to send one.
Also, look for auctions that have high starting bids, but bids still under what you might pay. Seems this keeps people from adding it to their watch lists because it's too high. I have a friend who won a PSA 1976 Walter Payton rookie for only $125 because the auction ended on a Tuesday afternoon and $125 was the starting bid. And that was a PSA 8. Big steal. So if there's a card you'll pay $200 for, and one has a starting bid for $1 and the other at $175, add the $175 to your watch list. Less people will and you'll have a better chance to get it under your $200 price, IMO.
Sorry for the longwinded message, I think I'm done now
One more factor that can make the difference of hundreds of dollars in the hammer price: Not all cards bearing a certain grade are created equal. A very obvious example would be that a well-centered PSA 7 Schmidt rookie will always fetch more than a PSA 7 that is close to (but not quite) off-center.