Pack-busting: results after 6 months......

CDsNuts

As many of you know I'm on a crazy quest to break unopened material from the 70s and 80s in order to get three things accomplished:

1. Get the great RCs of my era.
2. Offset the costs by grading and selling what I don't want.
3. Have fun.

Here's how I'm doing after the 6 month point on the stuff I've completed selling-


product cost (incl. grading) sales assets/ approx. value profit/loss

1978 T BB wax boxes (3) -2180 2185 Molitor smudge 40 +45
85 T vend. case -1505 1165 McGwire/Clemens/Puckett 130 -210
83 T vend. boxes (10) -620 250 Gwynn/Boggs/Ryno/Ripken 130 -240
75 T mini wax packs (4) -285 40 Lynn RC 80 -165
60 T pack -230 920 - +690
75 T cellos (3) -320 80 Lynn RC 30 -210
86 T rack case -140 45 -95
76 T racks (2) -80 120 Brett, Schmidt 100 +140
85 D rack case -565 270 Clemens, Puckett 75 -220
91 T Desert Shield packs (14) -980 1345 - +365
81/82 T bask. box -280 110 McHale, Bird, Magic 70 -100
80/81 T bask box -1230 590 Bird/Magic (truly mint) 700 +60
89/90 Fleer rack case -180 140 set 30 -10
87/88 Fleer wax packs (5) -100 10 -90
82 T FB cello box -240 90 Montana, LT, lott, Munoz 200 +50
81 T FB cello box -515 360 Montana, Winslow 120 -35


TOTALS -9450 7720 1705 -25

Essentially I've paid $1730 for $1705 worth of cards (in approx. real world value, not smr or beckett). I suppose feel at least a little lucky because i lucked out on the 1960 Topps pack by getting a PSA 9 Mantle/Boyer, and made some god awful purchases (85 T vending case and 85 D rack case), but the more I'm doing this, the better I'm getting at predicting what I can do well with and what I can't. For instance I just bought another 12 Desert Shield packs and I'm planning on going with another 78 T wax box. Also, I've been able to find some hidden gems (76 T rack pack for $30 on ebay, 1960 T wax pack at $230) because I know the best places to find those steals. Hopefully I can eventually get everything in the black and have a good collection that I didn't pay anything for, but we'll see what happens.

Lee

BigRedMachine

Keep us posted. I always enjoy seeing how you come out and wish you the best of luck.

One other thing. Why would a vending 85 topps and an 85 donruss case be "a god awful purchase"? Was it just bad luck? Obviously PSA 10's of clemens, puckett, and mcgwire are pretty decent cards, as are the cards of schmidt, rose, ryan, yount, etc. if graded high enough. Hell, even eric davis and darryl strawberry rookies were up in my last Beckett. Am I missing your point? Or are the costs of these cases too high to realize a profit no matter what you pull?

halosfan

I mostly just read these boards but had to comment. I am very suprised you are even close to considering yourself even. I couldn't imagine taking some of those risks. I wish you the best moving forward and enjoy the updates. It does make one wonder just how much unopened stuff is out there or are the Topps presses still running.

CDsNuts

Both were extremely tough condition-wise. The 85 vending yielded only 5 PSA 10's of stars or semis, and I quit halfway through the 85 donruss rack case because there wasn't one potential 10 and I had pulled a decent enough Clemens and Puckett for my collection. That one was a bad purchase because you're only going to get like 4-5 of each card and unless you get a bunch of 10s which is very tough, you're not going to do well with it. Definitely an overpriced product compared to what the cards bring. I've found in order to make money you need a set that has enough collector appeal that PSA 10s of semis and commons bring decent money (78 T, 91 D.S.), and even if you lose out in the grading and get a bunch of 9s you can still get something for them. 85 Topps didn't work out becuase of the few 10s I got, only the Schmidt and Ripken AS got me anything ($180 each). I know that's a lot for each card, but when you consider what I paid for the case, and the fact that three other PSA 10 HOFers (2 Ryno, 1 Sparky) brought less than $35 a piece, I needed about triple the PSA 10s in order to do ok, especially since I lost money on grading the ones that got 9s (except for Clemens and McGwire of course).

Lee

softparade

Lee, did you send in those 78's from the rack box?

CDsNuts

no, not yet.

Lee

SDavid

Lee -

Have you thought about trying to find unopened material on your own and paying 'dealer' prices for it?

There are a lot of low to medium volume dealers of 80's wax on ebay. Maybe if you emailed some of them, they'd give you some tips on finding the stuff. Just be sure to point out that you're not planning on selling unopened boxes so they don't view you as competition. If they don't help you, I'm sure you could find dealers in your area who would.

I wouldn't think it would be that tough to find boxes from the '80's.

Mac53

Lee--the $25 in the red is money very well spent for objective 3. Have fun. There's still that thrill in carefully opening a pack. A little like panning for gold. Some kids never grow up.

CDsNuts

I get excited whenever I see the UPS guy coming to my door.

Lee

tennesseebanker

Hey, I'm a fellow pack buster here,(although not to the extent you are) Glad to hear of your adventures. The last three things I busted open were 83 topps football, 77 topps football rack pack and 79 baseball vending box. I got more big name cards out of the 77 rack pack than I did either of the other two boxes. Now ive got so many cards to send in for my registry it is pathetic. Good luck with future purchases.!

CDsNuts

Did you get a nice Largent RC, Selmon RC, Webster RC or Payton out of the 77? I'm looking for those but I haven't seen much in the way of unopened material out there. Cool set. The 83 FB is a decent value but unfortunately there isn't a whole lot of collector interest in the set. Can't understand why with RCs of Singletary and Allen, and early cards of Montana and LT. Glad to hear I'm not the only one with a gambling problem.

Lee

TheCARDKid

Lee,

I've been following your adventures. Fun stuff! It's amazing that you've opened all of that and are only down $25. Have you considered any hockey boxes?

tennesseebanker

I opened one rack pack of 77 and got a webster, payton, tarkenton, staubach, and the simpson payton leaders card as well as some nice centered commons. Yes I agree on the 83's I dont really think the 83 set is that attractive but it is affordable. And I was trying to improve my 5th best 83 set.My 83 football registry set

CDsNuts

Hockey was always my least favorite out of the four, but there are definitely some cards I'd like to have. However, when I see what unopened stuff brings on ebay and compare it with graded singles, it doesn't seem plausible that I would come out on top with most of the sets out there, especially since the stuff I want are the big years: 84/85, 85/86, 88/89. That wax is through the roof right now.

Lee

CDsNuts

ten,
Nice rack. Looks like you got about 1/4 of the set. Just out of curiosity, what did you pay for it? I wouldn't mind picking up a few after hearing how you did.

Lee

doncherry

Lee

Thanks for posting the info. I enjoy reading about your pack breaks

larryallen73

Interesting stuff. At first I remember not enjoying your threads on pack busting but have learned to enjoy them. As was said in one of them, we don't have to open the thread if we don't want to read. So, thanks for sharing. My wife and two kids make it hard for me to open quite as many boxes as you do so it's fun to live vicariously through you. Off the main topic, but on topic to above regarding '77 football. I recently bought a few racks from BBCexchange. Great customer service. I was very impressed with that. Not their fault but the contents of the rack packs sucked! I opened 3 racks got a faded Fouts (maybe an 8... so worthless) and NO Payton, Largent, etc.... Got a few decent cards worthy of sending in but defintely not worth the $50 per pack I paid. Not sure I will buy more... at least not at that price.

larryallen73

P.S. Lee- I wouldn't consider asking you to divulge your source for cheap cards but $30 for a '76 rack is exceptional! I wish I had time to scour the bay for such deals. I bid over $70 on a couple yesterday and got outbid. I love '76 but that's steep money!

gregm13

I recently bought 2 rack packs of 1977 football and the cards were beat to hell. I don't know why I've had such a hard time finding unopened 1977 material. I still need all the rookies for 1977 except Largent (have a PSA 8) for my rookie HOF set.

Regards,

Greg M.

tennesseebanker

yes this was definately one of the best busts i have ever had. I had a few cards that were dinged including the webster rookie but I thought it was exceptional to pull as many big cards as I did from one rack. The Staubach is a little off center but shuold still pull an psa 8. The payton looks great going to send it in on my next submission hoping for a 9 or better.

The 83 football i just opened had two marcus allen rookies that were way off center no montana or taylor which were really the cards i was hoping for since i allready have a psa 10 allen. Most of the 83 box was off center or miscut which was disappointing but i pulled probably 40-50 cards that i will go over soon with my loupe to see if they are worthy of psa 9 or better.

tennesseebanker

What do you guys think? Is this payton worthy of a 9 or better?

CDsNuts

larry,
I lucked out and found the 76 rack listed in the wrong category so I got it cheap. Then I asked the seller if he had any more and he had one he sold for $45. Opened one and got the Brett and Schmidt and sold the other for around $120. It's amazing how far off the pack prices for that year are relative to the value of the cards in the set. They go for almost as much as 75s unopened, but there's only one major RC in the set.

Lee

ctsoxfan

That Payton is a nice example - I think the L/R centering might hurt the card a bit, but as long as the corners are razor sharp, you could get a 9. A 9 on that card (his second year card) is worth a few bucks.

Matter of fact, if you get a 9 - and want to sell it off Ebay, hit me up.

stevek

Interesting thread. First, I think the Payton looks more 8 to me than 9 - would have to see the corners magnified to be sure. Second, the way Lee is persuing this is gambling but gambling in a smart way - taking calculated risks, analysing the results and proceeding in the best way possible to achieve the maximum potential is what smart businessmen do. I still will always say that overall it is impossible to make money when continuing to buy and bust unopened packs bought from dealers who know card values - otherwise these dealers would already have busted the packs! But the way Lee is doing it, there is a decent chance to maybe make a few bucks and as was implied...certainly having a lot of fun.

Steve

CDsNuts

Couldn't agree with you more steve. I think what it's going to come down to is finding a few products that will show a profit over the long run and continuing to buy them as long as they are profitable. For example right now the 1978s are doing well. I don't expect that to continue as the market continues to get flooded with graded cards from box breaks, but for now I'm doing ok with them. Sometimes the market may be slow to adjust to price changes (up or down) and supply increases/decreases, and it's possible to find good values in either buying unopened product and/or selling graded singles. If I can find enough of these hidden values I might be able to get myself in the black, but only time will tell.

Lee

stevek

Excellent points Lee...and to clarify my own post - LOL - "impossible to make money when continuing to buy and bust unopened packs bought from dealers who know card values" > I meant this to mean in a random manner...you are doing it in a calculated manner, analyzing the marketplace, etc., which again is the smart way to continue doing it. Nothing "wrong" with randomly busting unopened packs bought from dealers...it's fun...just don't expect to ever make money at it.

Steve

tennesseebanker

Lee, you may want to look into some of bbc exchanges sets, I got two psa 10's from an 83 football set, one was the Marcus Allen. I know Steve busts packs and builds these sets straight from unopened material. It is a good way to know you are getting every player for that year and most of the time completed sets are less expensive than unopened stuff. I spent 30 bucks on my 83 set and got a $500 dollar card in return, worth a try.

CDsNuts

Honestly, I don't think Steve busts a lot of his stuff. The profit margin is too great on the unopened material, and why risk losing money on a deal when you have money in the bank. I do know he buys out large collections of stuff and I suspect your set was part of one. Not like a good businessman to look at a card like an Allen RC that has a shot at a 10 and put it in a set. That doesn't mean he doesn't pull a box of 70s stuff out every now and then for fun, but as my experiment is showing, there aren't many unopened products you have a good chance to make money on by opening. Way to go on that 10- a RC of one of the best RB's of that era.

Lee

packman

Regarding the sets from bbcexchange, Steve told me last year that he purchased the mid-70's to 80's sets from a collector who put them together from vending. The cards are hit or miss when they come to centering, corners etc.

David

tennesseebanker

I have been hit or miss with set purchases from him also, a 1975 football set i bought from him was off center or miscut on almost every star in the box.

CDsNuts

I honestly don't think he puts the sets together himself, but I'm sure if you asked him to pull a card or two and describe them he would.

Lee

softparade

I don't think Steve is putting together sets by hand either. I would be shocked. I bet he is into answering tons of e-mail everyday, tracking down leads for mass unopened purchases, and scooting across the country to shows and such.

tennesseebanker

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh, the life!

tennesseebanker

btw, is bbc kid's site ever going to be updated? he has vitually nothing anymore especially in football.

ldferg

i emailed him and he said he's working on it. i don't see much change ever when i go there. same ol thing.