How can there be so many low pops

IJustLoveCards

The new "getem while they are hot" sales pitch is the LOW POP title almost every seller uses on ebay.

So, what consitiutes a low pop card? Is a 1 of 12 low pop?

What if there are 50 set collectors on the registry yet only 12 examples of the card exist in a 8 with no 9's. Yet, 28 examples exist in 7's.

Combined, you still dont have enough pop of cards to satisfy the needs of the set registrants if only 40 examples in 7's and 8 exist for the 50 people.

But what gets me is the LOW POP usage in the sales. It seems every card is now a low pop card.

What about the fact that the low pop card could become no longer a low pop in the future due to submissions by dealers/collectors of that particular card.

How do you evaluate how much you are going to pay for that card?

Just wanted to get some other opinons on this subject.

If this has been discussed before, I apoligize, I just wanted some other insight.

halosfan

For true vintage cards I might pay a premium for a low pop card in high grade. What I have been noticing is folks starting to slab cards (new to several years/decadeds back) that haven't been slabbed in quantity. I suspect they are trying to cash in on cards that they couldn't sell "raw" for anywhere near what they are asking with this "low pop" hype. Most of these issues exist in great numbers raw in equal grades -- imho

jrdolan

Almost no mainstream card from the mid-1970s forward is really "rare." There may not be very many at a certain grade level at the moment, but due to the hundreds of cases of unopened material (thousands by the late '80s) there is always a chance that your expensive low-pop card is about to become pretty damn high-pop. DSL and 4_Sharp_Corners seem to have a warehouse each full of unopened material going back into the '70s, and they are getting a steady stream of PSA 9's and 10's back from PSA. They aren't the only ones, just the largest I know of.

Example: 4_Sharp_Corners put a 1979 Topps Johnny Bench PSA 10 on eBay a few months ago. SMR on the card (which had a pop of 1 when they started) was $300. In fact the card sold for more than $300 to a member of the Bench registry. I was the underbidder, and 4SC offered me an identical PSA 10 Bench for my high bid, which was also above $300. I took the offer, thinking OK the pop is now up to 2. Little did I know ...

Ever since, 4SC has been running a slew of 1979 Bench PSA 10's out on eBay, sometimes two at a time. At first they wanted $300, but they'd already milked the only two suckers who would pay that much. The price has gradually dropped when they didn't sell. Currently the min. bids on these are down to $150 with a BIN of $175, and it will go lower as some of these don't sell. People are onto 4SC's game now. These PSA 10's are nowhere near as rare as they were before 4SC increased the population from 1 to 12. Maybe they're just waiting for these to sell before increasing the pop. to 25, and then 50. I have no trouble believing they have more 1979 vending cases to dig into.

goudeygold

Well said. There is toooons of high grade ungraded cards from the 70s and newer. Most commons aren't even worth the grading fees even if you do get a 9. even going back to the 50s there are tooooons of mid grade raw ungraded. When you get to the 50s getting 8 and up is starting to get relatively rare. going back to pre 48, some sets simply do not have the raw supply available. my example... 38 goudeys. entire POP for all 48 cards is only 1874. Watching the POP inch up over the past year there I have noticed that there are no 10s, and the number of 9s and 8s has remained unchanged while the number of 7s has only gone up by a few. So the entire POP of 7-8-9 is around 650. This seems like a high percentage of the totaal POP but nearly all the increases now come at the 4-3-2-1 level. So when there is a PSA 7 common on ebay with a POP of 8 with only 2 better, you can rest assured that your probably not going to see the POP count increase by any significant margin at that level. thus current bidding is already at 150% of SMR.

so on anything that isn't I would say pre-57 or so and high grade with a low POP, don't feed into the marketing. Getting into pre-war, many cards in mid grade are low POP so you can take your chances hoping you will find another, or try to grab it at a reasonable price.

GG

CDsNuts

jr,
My question is that why are these guys breaking the product in the first place? Surely, they would be better off selling the unopened stuff rather than breaking it down and grading everything that's gradeable. Imagine how many cases must have been broken to get 14 of any one card from the late 70s in PSA 10 condition. Kind of strange in my opinion. Are they going after complete PSA 10 sets?

Lee

ldferg

what are 4SC and DSL doing with the cards they do not submit...

NickM

goudeygold - try '36 Goudeys. 12% of the cards have no 8s, and there are no 9s at all.

There are always some cards in most '60s and '70s sets that are tough to find in nice PSA condition. Sometimes it has to do with inks, other times with sheet placement, other times with still other factors. These cards do draw a premium, in part because of the monetary value of the time necessary to hunt for a suitable raw specimen. I got lucky a few weeks ago, and got a real toughie ('78 Topps Chris Speier - pop. 7 in PSA 8 and 2 in PSA 9) as part of a group of PSA 8s for less than $2 apiece after shipping. Put on eBay separately, it might have drawn as much alone as I paid for the lot, because many of the registry collectors still need this one (some have accepted a PSA 7 in a set that they are collecting in 8 and better).

Nick

goudeygold

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=5175674770&rd=1&sspagename=STRK:MEDW:IT&rd=1[/L]


Here is the link to the 38 goudey discussed above. 220% of SMR for a PSA 7 common. Looks like memorylane was hellbent on getting it no matter what the cost. PSA 7 POP of 8, two 8s (accounted for in registry) with none higher. Now with memorylane being one card short of a 100% complete set I wonder if this one was the kicker. GPA 7.98 on 47/48 cards means all 8s and one 7 common.

we'll see if they update their set registry the next few days...

GG

softparade

<< <i>goudeygold - try '36 Goudeys. 12% of the cards have no 8s, and there are no 9s at all.

There are always some cards in most '60s and '70s sets that are tough to find in nice PSA condition. Sometimes it has to do with inks, other times with sheet placement, other times with still other factors. These cards do draw a premium, in part because of the monetary value of the time necessary to hunt for a suitable raw specimen. I got lucky a few weeks ago, and got a real toughie ('78 Topps Chris Speier - pop. 7 in PSA 8 and 2 in PSA 9) as part of a group of PSA 8s for less than $2 apiece after shipping. Put on eBay separately, it might have drawn as much alone as I paid for the lot, because many of the registry collectors still need this one (some have accepted a PSA 7 in a set that they are collecting in 8 and better).

Nick >>



Nick,

who did you hose for that one? Someone was drunk enough to let Speier go for 2 bucks in PSA 8 ????????

Stone193

My understanding is that there is a prevailing belief that all the good vintage is drying up and already holdered. I'm not sure I agree - I collect mostly in the raw arena. I have many lots of vintage stuff and raw sets that are pretty nice but not graded.

Excuse the large scan - I sent this to a friend via email and didn't want to grab a card and scan it.
So, I am nobody and have a bunch - just imagine what's still out there?



Stone

jrdolan

You're not the only nobody, Mike!



To be honest, Billy is ungraded only because he has surface crease on the back and I like him better raw than PSA 4.

ctsoxfan

<< <i>Ever since, 4SC has been running a slew of 1979 Bench PSA 10's out on eBay, sometimes two at a time. At first they wanted $300, but they'd already milked the only two suckers who would pay that much. The price has gradually dropped when they didn't sell. Currently the min. bids on these are down to $150 with a BIN of $175, and it will go lower as some of these don't sell. People are onto 4SC's game now. These PSA 10's are nowhere near as rare as they were before 4SC increased the population from 1 to 12. Maybe they're just waiting for these to sell before increasing the pop. to 25, and then 50. I have no trouble believing they have more 1979 vending cases to dig into >>



Sad, but true. In fact, a 79 Bench PSA 10 barely got $125.00 recently (after relisting it). I am actively pursuing this set, but I know the money I spend on it will never come back to me - this set, and most recent sets, will experience faster growing pops over the next 5-10 years.

pandrews

what a great looking card!



<< <i>

Stone >>

Stone193

Thanx Perry
Not to beat a dead horse but back about 15 to 20 yrs ago, I picked up many, many lots of 100 cards+ that would be hard to find today.



I save a fortune in grading fees by having sets in binders. Now if you wanted to sell the cards, then perhaps, grading would be a good idea.

your friend
mike

softparade

Mike, the beat goes on in your raw world

and don't forget the

goudeygold

In pre-war I still firmly believe that the number of raw cards that will grade out at a 6 or better are not really out there. I'm sure there are some squirreled away somewhere, but i'm telling you I can't find them. Again if you know of ANYBODY selling true EX-MT or better pre-war raw then please hook me up. I fully agree that 52 and newer is plentiful raw, but back up to the depression era and I really wish someone would just prove me wrong.

GG

goudeygold

stone... you always throw out some very nice raw cards for our enjoyment. Do you have any nice raw pre-war, particulary 33-38 goudeys?

GG

Stone193

<< <i>stone... you always throw out some very nice raw cards for our enjoyment. Do you have any nice raw pre-war, particulary 33-38 goudeys?

GG >>


GG
My favorite turn of the century stuff is the T3 set I'm working on: here are some better raw I have.





Back around 1990, there was still plenty of prewar raw out there at shows - it's still there but the price has gotten out of hand!

your friend
mike

goudeygold

Those are exceptional. I go to all the major chicago shows, but i'm seeing all the same dealers whom don't really seem to be getting much for my little 38 set. I'm just going to have to continue to be patient I guess. At the last show one dealer had raw and I bought his 3 nicest ones. they netted a PSA 5-6-7. the 7 made the entire day. however if the strong 7 got an 8, it would have made my year since SMR is about 2 grand MORE for an 8 over a 7. But, some toning and one touched corner keep it an accurate 7.

GG

Stone193

GG
You got the National coming this year and will bring in dealers with more stuff - get there early and hopefully you won't be dissappointed. I live in San Antonio - not exactly sports card central - the people in the NE with the Ft. Washington show have the advantage of having a strong local show that is like having a "regular" national in their back yard.

Good luck this summer!
And let all you Goudeys be Gold!
your friend
Mike

goudeygold

I'm going to the national so i'll provide a full report at that time.

GG

Mac53

Mike, those T3s are absolutely stunning. I'm still trying to figure out what I really want to concentrate on. You've complicated my life.

Stone193

Mac
I do recommend that everyone consider a turn of the century set in any grade - a 19th century set would be nice also in any grade of course and a late prewar set like the Goudeys. Check the registry - there are also some undervalued B&W sets to consider.
But remember, there's nothing wrong with Modern - even for the vintage guys, I still think a set or two of modern stuff will add to your enjoyment and keep you posted on what's out there.

Good luck on a set!
your friend
mike

goudeygold

Just as i thought, memorylaninc now has the 3rd 100% complete 38 goudey set. thus them paying 220% of book for the PSA 7 common yesterday confimes this was the one they were missing.

GG

NickM

softparade - it happens when you sell a lot and don't list the name or number of a low pop card in the title. And do you really think I'm going to make it easier for people to outbid me on the bargains?

Nick

[edited for typo]