Long Beach post auction buys and Prices Realized
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
As a follow on to Bear's excellent comments from Friday I couldn't help but notice the fairly large amount of post auction coins for sale, not to mention PR's that were quite indifferent. A few of the ex-Oliver Jung coins didn't meet reserves based on PR's from the earlier sale (1839 ND half in MS63 and 1806 half in MS64). That sort of places the Jung sale (July 2004) as a high-water mark in this current market move for so many coins. Curiously, the 1806 half was ex-Eliasberg but it was never mentioned in the description.
I would suspect that many of the no-sales were dealer coins that were consigned months ago in hopes of fairer winds. It was hard not to notice that NGC coins were by far in the majority of no-sales.
And the ones that did sell typically brought much less than a PCGS coin in the same grade. Some PCGS coins of lesser quality brought low prices too, but there were nowhere near as many. Holder gender bias is still very strong....probably stronger than ever.
Another observation going through UNC seated and bust material
clearly showed the spread in quality for identically graded coins.
In many cases a spread of 100%. This is nothing new to forum members however. But it was interesting to note that it seemed as if I was looking at the PR's of an all "raw" coin sale. The prices were all over the place and the buyers seemed to know exactly which coins to avoid. This should be a clear warning to those who tend to rely on plastic (and their dealer's word) that the ice is very thin in these waters. One slight error in judgement and your so-called 20% gain turns into a 20% loss. Many of these lesser quality type coins are bringing significantly less than they did in 2004 and in 2002-2003. Be careful. Registry Fever doesn't rule in the "type coin" arena so your margin for error is slim.
It could be that with Heritage Signature auction going last at Long Beach that it affected the sale more than anticipated. But the dichotomy in market quality continues. Ensure that you are on the right side of this for your own protection.
roadrunner
I would suspect that many of the no-sales were dealer coins that were consigned months ago in hopes of fairer winds. It was hard not to notice that NGC coins were by far in the majority of no-sales.
And the ones that did sell typically brought much less than a PCGS coin in the same grade. Some PCGS coins of lesser quality brought low prices too, but there were nowhere near as many. Holder gender bias is still very strong....probably stronger than ever.
Another observation going through UNC seated and bust material
clearly showed the spread in quality for identically graded coins.
In many cases a spread of 100%. This is nothing new to forum members however. But it was interesting to note that it seemed as if I was looking at the PR's of an all "raw" coin sale. The prices were all over the place and the buyers seemed to know exactly which coins to avoid. This should be a clear warning to those who tend to rely on plastic (and their dealer's word) that the ice is very thin in these waters. One slight error in judgement and your so-called 20% gain turns into a 20% loss. Many of these lesser quality type coins are bringing significantly less than they did in 2004 and in 2002-2003. Be careful. Registry Fever doesn't rule in the "type coin" arena so your margin for error is slim.
It could be that with Heritage Signature auction going last at Long Beach that it affected the sale more than anticipated. But the dichotomy in market quality continues. Ensure that you are on the right side of this for your own protection.
roadrunner
0
Comments
What the heck are PR's?
excellent thread
if possible could you please elaberate in more specific detail more specifics on your comments
proofs
no question is ever stupid
if you did not ask then thaT IS STUPID
jim
Good time to be in pieces that are scarce, never available and of the utmost quality??
DPOTD-3
'Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery'
CU #3245 B.N.A. #428
Don
<< <i>What the heck are PR's? >>
Oreville, I believe he's talking about Prices Realized.....
Hey, shouldn't you be doing someone's taxes?
Speaking of which . . . . .
DPOTD-3
'Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery'
CU #3245 B.N.A. #428
Don
Heck I thought PR's first meant proofs, then meant press release but that didn't totally make sense either but yes; prices realized fits better.
I HATE acronyms!
By the way, I am doing a free ask a CPA a question about income taxes tomorrow. I will be at the Palisades Mall in Rockland County, NY from 12-6. I will be doing my work there too just in case no one asks me any questions!
Roadrunner:
I am always hoping for a closer spread between the top two grading firms. Fair competititon is always healthy, not a monopoly. But I was HOPEFUL after the Richmond II sale. Many NGC coins not only had strong sales, (since most of Richmond was NGC anyway), but many I have heard, and experienced, crossed to PCGS no problem. The Richmond III sale, which is heavily 19th century seated, I expect the same.
From what I saw at the Goldberg sale, the proof seated dollars went for WAY MORE than what the Goldberg sale expected. MOST went for 30% to 100% over what was expected. But then I did some homework...
...PR's (prices realized) were well over their estimates, but not necessarily over recent (past year) PR's.
High grade Lincoln cents at Heritage went real high, even though they didnt have any real condition rarities. I don't know WHO the heck is buying these. And high grade key date coins did well. But the ones with high reserves from all auctions (after seeing these high reserves, I knew they were dreaming dealers), I knew they would NOT sell. Some are still hoping for a 30% return in a year.
Buyers are getting pickier, and more selective? I'm not so sure. But when you see a reserve for a 1916 SLQuarter 64FH for $22,500 - give me a break.....
I feel nice coins will continue to do well. Really nice coins (PQ) will do even better. Unfortunately, most of what is offered via inventories, auctions, bourse floors, and web sites, is of average to lower end quality.
The Richmond coins were a specialist's near complete collection. And I think the NGC grades played less a role than normal. The completeness of the set brought the buyers to the table. While I didn't get a chance to see the coins that have sold so far, I would suspect that the quality was above average across the board....hence many crossed. If the "Richmond" name were also transferred to the new PCGS holders that's a plus for PCGS.
roadrunner
<< <i>MacCrimmon: I AM doing those tax returns right here !
Heck I thought PR's first meant proofs, then meant press release but that didn't totally make sense either but yes; prices realized fits better.
I HATE acronyms!
By the way, I am doing a free ask a CPA a question about income taxes tomorrow. I will be at the Palisades Mall in Rockland County, NY from 12-6. I will be doing my work there too just in case no one asks me any questions! >>
Would you mind answering one small question today? If I sell my home this month, when is the capital gains tax due? April 15, 2006 or should I pay estimated taxes this quarter. Thanks
reasons why I am considering selling my residence while home prices are still quite high.
roadrunner
I didn't get far in the post either wondering what PR was.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
PQ coins rather then mid quality coins. This is in effect, a value reduction in many series of coins.
This may soon be followed in actual price reductions, as cash strapped dealers as well as collectors get
ready to pay the grim reaper at tax time. The smart money collectors seemed to have picked the
top of the market to sell. The after market for many of these collections is now problematic. This is
the normal ebb and flow with all of its hype and hyperboly. Most every one proclaimes how great things
are untill well into the downturn. Be carful out there folks. Push hard on price, the pendulum is swinging
in favor of the collector who is buying.For the mass of sellers all jammed in the doorway trying to sell and make
profits on recent purchases.............................good luck.
Camelot
roadrunner
To me, the current status is that we are "flat" during the up market. Since flat means "does not continue going higher," some of us got panic.
Whilel that may be the case, my experience looking at Heritage lots at major shows is that the quality of the coins is all over the place, too. Perhaps, the 73 is low-end for the grade
Robert