I'm waiting for prices to drop before I buy this coin...

MrEureka

Name the one coin that you would most like to buy, and that you CAN DEFINITELY afford to buy, but you REFUSE to buy it because you believe the MARKET is too high.

Do you think you'll ever get a chance to buy this dream coin at a price you can live with?

JrGMan2004

Nope... can't think of anything in my price range...

braddick

GD04 to VF25 Bust dollars. I just can't believe the price spike these coins have been awarded over the last year or so and do believe there will be an adjustment.

mrearlygold

High reliefs although they didn't sell very well at FUN.

Way over priced still.

And yes, the opportunity will definitely arise eventually to buy them right.


Tom

nwcs

Any lower grade draped bust coin

Pistareen

A 1783 Chalmers Rings Shilling.

Three in private hands -- the last one (finest known) brought a fantastic 6 figure sum (I think it was 180K?) at the Ford sale.

The worst known, worn slick on the obverse, holed and plugged, brought about $2000 in 1983 and has been in the same NY collection since. Maybe I can get my hands on that one some day ... but not if its anywhere near 180K!

For those who care, here is a census of the 5 known examples:

1. The Ford piece, now in a NYC collection. The best by a long shot.
2. The Garrett-Roper piece, now on Long Island. Double struck.
3. The Norweb piece is permanently impounded in the Smithsonian.
4. Eric Newman owns the Newcomer piece, holed, and it will go into his St. Louis museum.
5. The slick awful one I hope to own some day, which is in a different Long Island collection.

Why is every single one of these I can hope to own in New York??

You all that think proof Gold or high grade type is rare, baloney -- when you have to wait for someone to die to complete your collection, that's rare!

NoGvmnt

Pistareen, can you find a pic to post?

Andy, how about answering your question first?

Jim

clw54

1901-S quarter

LanLord

My "I'm waiting for ..." coin will never go down in price.

I wanna get a 1796 or 1797 half dollar. I figgure I will save my monthly coin budget for a year and see if I have enough for a downpayment for one. If I don't find one I like, I'll probably use that money to buy a Bently Continental GT.

Crap, those things are difficult to get your hands on.

Barry

1799 Eagle AU58

mgoodm3

high relief saint, would be cool.

mrearlygold

<< <i>1799 Eagle AU58 >>






Oops


Tom

RYK

1854-D $3

pharmer

1793 chain cent

edited to add: no, unless the wayback machine pulls up in front of my house

RYK

Andy,

How about giving the respondents an opinion on whether or not they will see a drop in price. Stick your neck out a bit...

D

1911D Quarter Eagle in MS63+.

Will it go down in price? Never

-Daniel

michael

gem mintstate with superlaitve surfaces and even chocolate light brown color totally original mass half cent 1787/1788


but i CAN'T afford to buy it
the market is currently way undervalued on such a sleeper super historical coin with many firsts

and you NEVER see any for sale that are true gem



civil war era quarter and half eagles and eagles and double eagles proof gold........ is rare

high grade superb gem business strike type coins with thick original skins and fantastic killer toned eye appeal............ is rare


michael

MrEureka

Andy, how about answering your question first?

Continental dollar. As great as they are, I can't see paying 40K or more for anything I'd call a nice unc. Way too common for that, IMHO. In the next crash, whenever that may be, I hope to get a chance to buy one.

How about giving the respondents an opinion on whether or not they will see a drop in price. Stick your neck out a bit...

OK, here we go:

Circ Bust Dollars - They'll hold onto most of their gains, but they'll be stuck at a plateau for the next ten years.

MS63 High Reliefs - You'll get another chance to own them at 12K in the next five years.

Chalmers Ring Shillings - They're still bargains. John, just take a loan and buy the next one.

1901-S Quarter - No opinion.

Small Eagle Halves - They'll back off in the next crash, but probably not enough to make them seem like good deals.

1799 Eagle AU 58 - 20-30% cheaper sometime in the next five years.

1854-D $3 - Reported prices will decline significantly, but a solid original coin like RYK wants will never get cheaper.

1911D Quarter Eagle in MS63 - They'll drop 50% from current levels when the market tanks.

roadrunner

Some of the coins I have sold in the past year will fall back to 30-50% of what they were. I'll happily buy them back at that time but not today at even 20% off.

I see little in the market that I want to buy today that won't be cheaper in 5-10 years.

roadrunner

RYK

1854-D $3 - Reported prices will decline significantly, but a solid original coin like RYK wants will never get cheaper.

Okay, then I will have to go for it.

Thanks for the expert analysis.

Robert

ColonialCoinUnion

I'll speak to the few I know something about -



<< <i>Andy, how about answering your question first?

Continental dollar. As great as they are, I can't see paying 40K or more for anything I'd call a nice unc. Way too common for that, IMHO. In the next crash, whenever that may be, I hope to get a chance to buy one. >>



I agree. Continental Dollars have run up dramatically in the last 2 years which at first might seem appropropriate given their historical significance and cool factor. But when you consider that the average grade of surviving examples is AU+, and there are plenty of them around, todays prices can't hold long term.

How about giving the respondents an opinion on whether or not they will see a drop in price. Stick your neck out a bit...



<< <i>Chalmers Ring Shillings - They're still bargains. John, just take a loan and buy the next one. >>



I agree in that these are still cheap in comparison to their historical significance and rarity, the problem is they are, generally speaking, not much to look at.

Regardless, I don't think they'll ever be cheaper than today (in fact I thought the Ford price was stunningly low, as did the buyer) - so if you want one, I'd make haste. Or make a phone call to one of the other owners.

goose3

<< <i>1901-S quarter >>




BINGO!

DNADave

1934-S Peace Dollar in MS65. There must be a bag or two hoarded up somewhere.

roadrunner

When Monsieur Eureka speaks, people listen. Once again Andy has
stuck out his neck so to speak. I like his predictions. Frank and to the point as usual. I better start planning on selling my circ hoard of 1901-s quarters.

I'd love to buy so many neat things that are out there right now. But I'm not crazy enough to want to risk a 50% loss when things return to earth eventually. The time to accumulate most of this stuff was from 1996-2002. Only a number of series have remain untouched in that time....Peace dollars and non-toned classic commems are two of them.

roadrunner

Merc

I would say a 1917 Type 1 MS65 FH quarter. The majority of them are in Full head and it is the most common full head. There is a big price jump for a FH over a non FH in 65. I think it is too common to justify its price.

mrearlygold

Hmmm are people and dealers making statements/predictions as to what they think will be moving in either direction?

Andy, definitely high reliefs are too high. Ditto on the indian quarter eagles. I disagree with you on early dollars remaining the same. I think they are over priced and need an adjustment in the next bear session.

I like the medium-long term for the full range of quarter eagles 1796-1907 although you won't see me paying 100 grand for the 96 as in my opinion it needs to come down considerably before it's worth going after again. I bought and sold 2 1797's in the last 3 months and think they are undervalued in comparison.

Ooops I better shut up now. Loose lips sink ships.

Tom

Pistareen

CCU and MrEureka --

Considering that I'm at the office as we speak, I'm guessing my job security is pretty good. I'm good for the loan if one of you wants to spot me the 200K to pursue the Rings Shilling at the Partrick Sale of 2018.

Andy, speaking of which, you should see the golden lovelies on my desk right now. I don't expect the prices of good Latin American gold to dip soon.

My opinion on this thread: most of the classic rarities (1794 dollars, early dimes, 1792 half dimes, small eagle halves, Continental dollars, etc) will not go down appreciably despite their climbing prices in the last 24-36 months. But I think the rate of growth has to slow and perhaps stop for awhile, perhaps years, before the next big burst of enthusiasm for the good stuff.

JK

CUEBALL

When bust dollars were 800 bucks and went to 1200 bucks in vf 30 I said to myself I'll wait till they go back down.I'm still waiting.-----------------------I forgot the question!

MrEureka

I disagree with you on early dollars remaining the same. I think they are over priced and need an adjustment in the next bear session.

Tom - Where exactly will you see the adjustment? The coin market isn't like the stock market. Most price guides for coins are biased against reporting lower prices, and inflated price guides give sellers the tool with which they can patiently unload their coins at the "old numbers". Nobody is forced by a transparent market to take a big loss. So the market takes years to clear the supply/demand imbalance, instead of months. That's why I say the market will stay at a plateau for ten years. In other words, we agree but we disagree.

FullStepJeffs

2004 PCGS MS68 Nickels... once the pop hits 30+ for most of these mintages, the price should be right.

tradedollarnut

MS66 1857 Seated Dollar.

Bear

My policy is to buy high and sell low.

ColonialCoinUnion

<< <i>CCU and MrEureka --

Considering that I'm at the office as we speak, I'm guessing my job security is pretty good. I'm good for the loan if one of you wants to spot me the 200K to pursue the Rings Shilling at the Partrick Sale of 2018.

JK >>



John - I can safely say that if you, and I, and Andy had joined forces and bid $250K on the Rings Shilling at Ford it would have sold for $260K to its current owner.

We didn't have a chance in May 2004, and we won't in 2018 either.

Unless we are prepared to pay more than we are prepared to pay, that is.

Ronyahski

Better date MS Liberty Nickels in 66 and 67. They've run up nicely recently so some settling off is likely. If not, oh well...

ER

1798 small eagle bust $ in AU. Current prices are just outrageous ( 40 - 50 K range ). Even in XF, a dealer is currently selling it for 19.5K!

Jackrabbit

I'd like to buy a couple of patterns, but it seem's there not getting any cheaper... Will they be cheaper down the
road???? Wish I had the answer...

mrearlygold

<< <i>I'd like to buy a couple of patterns, but it seem's there not getting any cheaper... Will they be cheaper down the
road???? Wish I had the answer... >>











Most are certainly softer now then they were a year ago.


Andy, I disagree. I'm "out" ( on the early dollars) and was a pretty sizeable buyer up to a couple years ago. But 3 grand now for VF stuff? Cmon now let's not get too excited.

You and I are on the same page with regards to the early 10's ( the more common ones) although the majority of what's being offered these days aren't even that nice for the grade. So maybe the crappy ones will correct and the nice ones stagnate?

2005 will be an interesting year for sure.

Tom

shirohniichan

"Pissing Minuteman" Quarter.

Anything issued by the Royal Canadian Mint in the last 10 years.

IrishMike

Any of the slabbed extra husk leaf quarters. Nevermind you said a coin that I really wanted. So I will go with a 1877 MS R/B 66 IHC.

ajc

I need that $2.50 11d to finish off my registry set. Let the prices fall!

Bustman

early half eagles. I am looking for an 1807 capped in 63, but it will have to wait.