Butterflies, hurricanes and...................rare coin prices.

keets

You've heard it before, a butterfly flaps it's wings in Africa and before we know it, wham, Hurricane Jeanne is bearing down on the Florida coast. It's an exxageration to be sure, but the point it quite clear. So what's the connection to this wonderfully-getting-more-expensive-by-the-day-hobby of ours?? Simple, really. When will you flap your wings?? When will you be the guy in the auction room, on the bourse floor or tapping away at the keypad who pauses, if only for a moment, and blinks??

Remember, the slowdown will start somewhere, why not be the first on you're block to be a part of it??...................... Oh, now I remember the answer to that question, you just have to have that coin, another will never come down the Pike and if it does, chances are that it'll be more expensive---quick pause to catch my breath and drift back to 1989---so we should all probably buy now. If you just heard the sound of laughter or the high-pitched whine of a Zebco, there might still be hope!!!!!!! But alas, the pitchmen have been very successful this go-round.

Am I crazy, or what??? Maybe, but I flapped my wings quite a while ago. The wind has swirled but I could use some help. It doesn't have to be in orchestrated unison, just pump them wings!!!!!!!!

Al H.

pharmer

Read a Terry Pratchett novel with that butterfly theme. Here's a newby naive admission, Keets, thought higher prices would benefit the pros in the hobby, as their loads of inventory would be getting higher sales prices. Guess it matters whether someone is a net seller or buyer at a certain point in time.

cladking

A butterfly flapping its wings starts off a chaotic chain of events which directly and literally
causes a hurricane. But, it will always be unpredictable which flap will lead to the hurricane
and which will negate another insect's attemp at desolation.

Certainly a great deal is chaotic in the coin market but direction is more a function of harmonic
forces which are more predictable (at least in hindsight). The market might enjoy years of
clear sailing or blunder into a storm at any time.

keets

hey Sam

don't get too deep on me. my premise with this thread is validated by the lack of replies and is really quite simple. although the majority of collectors will bemoan the price increases of the past several years, they will at the same time march lock-step like so many sheep to the shearer, ever willing to pay higher and higher prices. it simply makes no sense to me but is answered with the tried-and-true American mantra, i'll pay for it because i can afford it.

despite your well intentioned reply, i'll disagree. prices will stop rising only---and i emphasize only---when collectors are unwilling to pay the price, by flapping their wings in my vernacular. this all means that i stand in the minority by stating that prices are too high and as a result, i've gotten very selective about where i spend my money. the camps, if they choose to be heard, will probably be one-of-three:

1. collectors who acknowledge that prices are a bit nuts but are willing to hold for a very long time to catch up to today when things sink---eventually.
2. collectors who spend frivolously for any multitude of reasons with no real regard for what prices are now and what they may be in the future.
3. self-serving dealers who's only real concern is driving the market higher and higher.

al h.

earlwbollinger

I'm planning to check out my boat this weekend.
I think some bass fishing is in order.

mintluster

The great thing about me in this situation is I am buying selective PQ Morgans and other nice stuff (usually commems) that are all graded PCGS, in the upper end of the grade, with an expectation to keep them for the next 40-50 years. Seriously. With all this in mind, I don't get caught up in the price changes 5 years from now, up or down.

I have noticed Morgans I have purchased in the last 4 years have in some cases doubled in value, but my mindset is not "hurry sell high, buy low"....it is more like "man I love this coin and I put it in the eagle album, to look at a couple times a week, admire it's beauty, and KEEP IT FOR 40-50 years."

So I think your particular strategy for your collection has a lot to do with this whole scenario.

RYK

Al, I always enjoy your posts and usually learn something, too.

If I could help you, I would, but I can't, so I won't. If I stop spending money on coins it will sit in a money market account only to be raided for kitchen renovations, a piano, or some other unworthy purpose. Or it will go into the stock market and go up and down and down and up and eventually, maybe, probably, hopefully multiply. But if I buy coins, I have something that I enjoy, something of some value (perhaps more but likely less than I pay for it), and something I can hold in my little hand.

You are on your own, Butterfly.

keets

maybe i should fly south for the winter and rest in a Mexican treetop for a short while!!!

al h.

stman

Keets, I hear you, the whole world hears you!!!!

Seriously, I agree with most of the statements you've made and opinions. There have been times I've said to myself... "enough is enough."
And I don't think you agree with this but this high priced market has brought some great coins to market, that IMO would not have surfaced.
I guess it depends what you collect. I know in some of my interests, if the market goes down, I don't believe the great coins will come out and play.

Add in, hey, sometimes we stretch a little and perhaps can't afford it, but I for one don't think I'll be around forever. You can wait and save your money.... and if you get hit by a train, the people that inherit anything or everything you have can enjoy sitting somewhere drinking those drinks with umbrella in them. Just a thought my "Friend?"

keets

hey stman

i can only agree with your assertion that the "up" market has brought out many, many coins that would otherwise be tucked away till who-knows-when, many mini hoards so to speak. i've mentioned that several times in the past couple of years. it's even happened at our local club meetings where membership is up and the result is older members auctioning pieces that there is a renewed interest in. i've made a few nice scores as a result with the help of the forum.

that's the paradox of rising prices and a heady market: coins that are sometimes seldom seen suddenly appear, but the cost can be prohibitive. enter the beauty of the electronic age, auction sites like Heritage and eBay and the PCGS Forum----we now have the likely possibility that many of these dissappearing coins will be tracked in a manner that has never been done before. in 10 years we should still know who has them.

maybe.

al h.