Just interesting observations of the coin market
Bear
Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
I have noticed that the auction houses as well as national dealers are
offering more and more MS-64 and Pr-64 classic coins instead of the
gem and superb gems we saw earlier in the year. Are the top flight specimens
really not available at todays prices? is that why we are seeing the choice 64 grade
coins starting to hit the market? Seems to be a lot of top flight sets that have hit the market
this year. Does smoeone know something we dont. Cash seems to be getting tighter, or is it my
imagination working OT.Not sure what to make of these thoughts. Just pieces of a vast puzzle.
At the L.B Show i spent 11,000, but I sold 40,000 dollars worth. Just me, but has this developement
involved more collecters then just myself.
offering more and more MS-64 and Pr-64 classic coins instead of the
gem and superb gems we saw earlier in the year. Are the top flight specimens
really not available at todays prices? is that why we are seeing the choice 64 grade
coins starting to hit the market? Seems to be a lot of top flight sets that have hit the market
this year. Does smoeone know something we dont. Cash seems to be getting tighter, or is it my
imagination working OT.Not sure what to make of these thoughts. Just pieces of a vast puzzle.
At the L.B Show i spent 11,000, but I sold 40,000 dollars worth. Just me, but has this developement
involved more collecters then just myself.
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
Jerry
On the other hand, slop was very available and was being discounted. Money was tight.
Yet I managed to sell really good coins very easily. So the weakness was far from pervasive.
All of this is primarily the result of LB being held so soon after ANA. It only makes sense that inventories have not yet been replenished, some dealers are struggling to cover bills coming due, etc.
Does this mean the high end coin market is still nuclear hot? Or is it on the cusp of a downturn? I don't know. We'll have to wait for the more serious market reports to find out.
Or just plain wait for some more time to pass.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I have noticed that the auction houses as well as national dealers are offering more and more MS-64 and Pr-64 classic coins instead of the gem and superb gems we saw earlier in the year. Are the top flight specimens really not available at todays prices? >>
Were you expecting to see cases of gem MS and PR early coins? In theory those are scarce. So if many were sold out of old collections early this year, there just may not be many more around. Think of it this way. If they were as available as the 64s they would only be worth 64 prices, right?
By the way, when did 19th century century silver coins in 64 become lepers?
CG
---------------------------------
"No Good Deed Goes Unpunished!"
"If it don't make $"
"It don't make cents""
<< <i>Or, is it possible that the economic realities of a horrendous economy are finally tightening the wallets of many prospective buyers? matteproof >>
Yah, I'm suprised anyone can afford coins at all, since we're experiencing the worst economy since the Great Depression.
First, the economy isn't horrendous. Second, yes the economy could easily lead to a market reversal at some point. Are we there yet? I doubt it.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Hi Eureka. I respectfully disagree with this particular thought. With one million jobs GONE forever (and the number probably much higher than a million), real wages absolutely declining for MANY people (though not the upper management class), a gallon of milk at $4.00, and gasoline at $2.00 plus per gallon, I would say the economy truly sucks for MANY MANY Americans (if not all). matteproof
I have some early type that certain collectors know I have put away and the offers for me to sell them just keep going up.
My ANA could not possibly have been any better than it was, with the inventory that I had.
I skipped LB Show this weekend because there was nothing that appealed to me in the auctions and my inventory is extremely low right now.
So, if you have any early type (especially quarters) or better date Seated Dimes and Quarters PM me.
<< <i>Hi Eureka. I respectfully disagree with this particular thought. With one million jobs GONE forever (and the number probably much higher than a million), real wages absolutely declining for MANY people (though not the upper management class), a gallon of milk at $4.00, and gasoline at $2.00 plus per gallon, I would say the economy truly sucks for MANY MANY Americans (if not all). matteproof >>
matteproof.....take your opinion to the Open Forum, there are many over there that will play with you. If you dare
The economy IS bad for many Americans. At the same time the rich are getting richer and the income gap widens. So, which group is buying the heavy hitter coins? And, is the situation for that group better or worse lately. Probably, it's better than it was 2-3 years ago, esp. with the stock market up.
I agree with you that the gap is widening tremendously between the rich and the poor. It has been my observation that the savviest, most sophisticated numismatists are NOT necessarily among the "corporate aristocracy" class.
I believe a surprisingly LOW number of arrogant corporate elitists are actively involved in coins at any level (they tend to mess around more with prissy artwork where they can be "seen" by other prissy artworld wannabes). Often, the nicest coins are bought by self-made entrepreneur types and average every day guys (rich and not so rich alike).
You said; And, is the situation for that group better or worse lately.
Generally speaking, EVERYTHING is better for the corporate elitist. He himself is still employed and his fellow ilk continue to grant each other raises, bonuses, and other economic perks with the excess money they saved from the massive layoffs and outsourcing of the past years. They are not outsourcing their own jobs (of course) but they are outsourcing your neighbors job. These recent years, the corporate elitist has imbibed on the suffering of the middle class and the poor. In times past this was not so obvious (corporate shame was usually expressed when massive layoffs occurred).
With respect to coins, it is my sense that the trophy coin buyer is the self-made wealthy entrepreneur type. Please do not confuse the management class corporate elitist (America's worst) with the golden souls we call the entrepreneur (who are America's finest). The entrepreneur is NOT an "upper management" poser as the corporate elitist is. The entreprenuer is himself a LABORER with a quasi-management function. He has made his dream a reality through HARD work, true dedication and self sustained risk. Compare that to the typical corporate elitist sluggard who knows nothing about hard work - except when it comes to his ceaseless and tireless effort to fund his golden parachute, protect his stock options, and to get an ever wearier hand from signing so many pink slips of his "underlings."
You said; Probably, it's better than it was 2-3 years ago, esp. with the stock market up. Well, the stock market has not done much at all (in Spring 2000 the Nasdaq was at nearly 5,000, it closed last Friday Sept. 10, 2004 at 1839.41). Look where we are now and compare that to 2000. In any event, as already mentioned, the corporate elitist is not your most obvious numismatist. Furthermore, with respect to stock, corporate elitists do NOT buy their company stock like you and I do. They get it for "free" with the corporate plunder known as "executive stock option plans" (this in addition to the grossly inflated compensation they receive). Not only do they NOT pay for this stock (via options), but the corporation does not "expense" those stock options either - all of which serves to make the corporations "profit picture" look a whole lot better than it really is. All I see in that kind of profit picture is the frame. The picture itself is an illusion. Thank you again for your comments coinasaurus. I appreciate it much!
Don't hold anything back, tell us how you really feel about corporate management.
Matteproof,
The illusion of lost jobs propagated by the left thinkers in the U.S. is a ploy to get votes in the up coming election.
There are NO lost jobs; there are retiree’s.
You cannot have LOW unemployment numbers, and a million lost jobs at the same time.
The reason that there have not been millions of new jobs created in the U.S. over the last few years is that part of the 76 million baby boomer group is taking early retirement, or becoming self-employed. We just don’t need as many jobs in the U.S. as we have in the past, and as time goes on, and more of this group retires, we will need less.
You said, There are NO lost jobs; there are retiree’s. I respectfully disagree with you. There are at least a million lost jobs and probably much more. These unemployed are not "retirees" but those who have LOST their jobs. Retirement and being "laid off" are obviously very different things. For example, the outsourced jobs from America to third world nations are NOT jobs that previously belonged to those in the retiree age group. Such jobs belonged mostly to younger Americans - you know - the ones with a couple of kids, no health insurance, and no benefits (unlike the corporate elitist who pink slipped him). Surely you are not suggesting that a laid off "40 something" has "voluntarily retired?"
You said; "You cannot have LOW unemployment numbers, and a million lost jobs at the same time." Well, the unemployment numbers are NOT low (despite claims by radical corporate elitists to the contrary). Very few would argue that unemployment is low. MANY jobs have been lost over the past few years and have not been replaced (at least not replaced in America). This is indisputable. Unemployment IS high and even the most strident believers of the alternate position repeatedly say such things like; "we must do better in creating new jobs."
The imploding deficit now rapidly unfolding before our very eyes, is due in part to the ever increasing downward pressure on "payroll tax" income, now in a vacuum, due to the MASSIVE layoffs and vastly reduced payrolls across our GREAT nation. The corporate elitist has stubbornly refused to create new jobs and/or hire within America, though they have created jobs in so many foreign third world nations for ten cents of the dollar. The millions of lost jobs have NOT been replaced in America with Americans. Furthermore, America's unemployed, no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, are not even counted in the "unemployment" figures which you suggest do not even exist!
You said; "The reason that there have not been millions of new jobs created in the U.S. over the last few years is that part of the 76 million baby boomer group is taking early retirement, or becoming self-employed. I wish it were so. But alas, it is not. New jobs are desperately needed and virtually every candidate in the current election has agreed that this is so (perhaps the only thing they do agree on). Baby boomers have NOT taken "early retirment" as you say. Rather, many were "forced" to take so-called "severance packages" that they neither wanted nor asked for. It was imposed upon them (and severance packages are NOT retirement by operation of law or morality).
Severance packages are not intended to "retire" a man. They are not "retirement" bearing (severance benefits at best can carry a man for a year or so - NOT a lifetime). The "new business" starts that you speak of are neither substantive nor always started by "free will." Rather, they are the evidence of how the minions of unemployed are desperately seeking a means of income as they have been UNABLE to find re-employment even long after their unemployment benefits expired. When the job search failed, the only remaining option was a "business." Even then, new business successes remain shockingly low and failure rates have never been higher (due largely to the fact that most of these desperate new ventures were vastly under capitalized).
You said; We just don’t need as many jobs in the U.S. as we have in the past, and as time goes on, and more of this group retires, we will need less. America can not continue to grow as an economic powerhouse without true business expansion and newly created jobs. This is so obvious, that it's hardly worth stating. That expansion is NOT coming from the corporate elitists. GOD willing, if it comes, it will come from America's truly great businessmen and women - the entrepreneur.
In your above statement, you are again trying to connect "retiree" with "laid off." My comments above explain why we disagree on this. Surely you will agree that a laid off 40 year old guy, with 3 kids, and a mortgage, is NOT a guy who has taken an "early retirment." Finally, if America has "accepted" the idea of "needing less" workers (as your statement above suggests) then America is doomed. A nation cannot "grow" unless it's citizens are gainfully employed. Unemployed people cannot function for long in a society where milk costs $4.00 a gallon, gasoline costs more than $2.00 a gallon, and health insurance for a family costs $1200.00 per month! Furthermore, in the all important social setting, unemployed American's start to feel disenfranchised from the rest of society who ARE working. There are unthinkable potential consequences to such a dilemma if it becomes a way of life. It is my hunch that this is EXACTLY what the corporate elitist WANTS. He want's a "split" America. He want's to divide "his" ilk from "the rabble" ilk - and - HE wants to define who will belong to which group. In that way, and in that way alone, the corporate elitist can come to control all that is worth controlling while tossing the crumbs to dogs under the table - "Let them eat cake" so to speak. Thank you again for your comments goldsaint.
Thanks for your response. First let me say that I agree with almost everything you say, but the employment issue. The difference is that I do not lay the blame at the feet of the corporations for our current, and upcoming problems, but rather at the feet of all governments. Corporations make no excuses for the fact that they are not social entities, and are at work every day to make profits for their owners. On the other hand it has been the government entities that now confiscate 60% of all American workers earnings in the form of Taxes and fees. It is this pervasive confiscation that has changed the face of American families to the point that the majority of American women must now work to keep the family from bankruptcy. Statistically one of every three Americans works for, or depends on, one government or another for their earnings. These folks who are all very decent American citizens, are still non-producers in the American economy. If you would perhaps replace all of the references to corporate elitists with the words Government elitists I believe your statements would come closer to the truth.
As far as the unemployment numbers all we have to rely on are the government figures, which they say, are in the 5% area. You may be correct; perhaps this is a lie, as we all can tell that they are lying about many other numbers.
Who is to blame for encouraging American companies to outsource, the government of course. Who is to blame for encouraging the American economy to become a service economy? The government. Who is to blame for our dependence on foreign oil? The government, and their 25year lack of any energy policy. Who is to blame for the fact that we are headed for a severe inflation period? Guess.
Unfortunately these mistakes have been made over the last 65 years beginning with FDR,
and at this point there is no cure. The system cannot be tweaked. In all of these serious problem areas lies at least one catch 22. If you stop outsourcing, or place tariffs on foreign goods for example, this may put Americans to full employment but their standard of living will decline as they pay high prices for every product. In addition what foreign governments will buy all the debt our governments create from they’re over spending if we shut out their products.
I am sorry my friend but America has become a socialist county, that must depend on many other countries for its support, and though we may strive to bring back the days of our Grandparents where Americans went to work, and were self reliant, not depending on government to solve their problems, this is just not going to happen in our life time.
Terry
Thank you for your excellent comments and observations. I very much appreciate your taking the time to spell them out. Just a few follow ups if I may. You said; The difference is that I do not lay the blame at the feet of the corporations for our current, and upcoming problems, but rather at the feet of all governments..." I do not necessarily blame the "corporation" but rather the "corporate elitists" who control the corporation (usually the upper management of a large corporate enterprise). The corporate elitist is a human being, whereas the corporation itself is obviously not human.
The corporate entity is a "Statist" entity - that is - it is a "creation of the State," given it's powers and it's very existence entirely by State fiat. It is ironic that a school of thought, one that is a strong proponent of the corporation (which is a "statist" enterprise), is the same school of thought that generally shuns anything so extremely Statist.
You said; "Corporations make no excuses for the fact that they are not social entities,..." The corporation itself is a social enterprise in many respects. First, it's very existence is derived from the "State." It is the "son" of the State so to speak. If the State is a "social institution," then it follows that the corporation must also be a social institution, since it is "genetically" linked to the State (unlike human beings). In the more intimate sense, the Corporation is the "place" where employees congregate for hours upon hours everyday. It used to be 9-5, but these days the corporate elitists are demanding MORE hours for no extra pay, even LESS pay (more elitist tyranny). In a very real sense, an employee spends as much time or MORE with his fellow employee's at work, than he does at home with his own biological family! Also, many a person's very identity is closely aligned to the "corporation." This is especially true of the corporate elitist himself. In this sense, the corporation IS a social entity.
I agree with you that a primary function of the Corporation is to make profits for it's shareholders. However, that philosophy seems lost on the corporate elitist when it comes to HIS personal compensation. For example, when a CEO pays himself 50 million dollars per year, plus stock options, plus every imaginable benefit, he is taking that money right out of the mouths of the shareholders who have a vested interest in that money.
You said; "As far as the unemployment numbers all we have to rely on are the government figures,..." For those who don't know, the Employment numbers are put together essentially from conducting "two" surveys by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which operates within the Labor Dept.). When you look at what the survey(s) are actually made up of, it becomes immediately obvious that this survey can easily be slanted (manipulated?) to yield nearly any result desired. This is why many savvy Wall Street and Economic analysts rely upon the "Help Wanted Index" for a more direct reading concerning "unemployment."
You said; If you stop outsourcing, or place tariffs on foreign goods for example, this may put Americans to full employment but their standard of living will decline as they pay high prices for every product. I hear you, and to some degree this could occur under certain circumstances. However, we have already seen that corporations ALREADY have not "passed savings" on to the consumer. In fact, the exact opposite has occurred since the so-called "cost cutting" measures have been put into effect. Since then, prices of nearly everything have risen and in some instances have risen rapidly and dangerously. In other words, prices were lower - much lower - when more people were employed rather than now when they are unemployed.
Bringing the idea closer to home; if a coin dealer buys, say, an 1893-S Morgan Dollar in XF for a bargain price of 2k, he is still going to charge you as MUCH as he can get for that coin despite his having bought it so cheaply. He is not going to "pass" his savings on to you the customer. In the same way, a corporation that has cut costs to the bone, is not necessarily going to pass those savings on to the customer - and they haven't! Rather, the "savings" of the corporate layoffs and cost cutting have gone to benefit the ever increasing salaries, bonuses and perks of the corporate elitists entrenched within the Corporation. Even the sheep shareholders haven't seen any benefit from the savings (stock prices have declined dramatically and dividends have stubbornly refused to appear despite superb new tax benefits in the area of dividends). The corporate elitists want it ALL. Their slogan is; "everything for me and NOTHING for you." Neither the shareholders nor the disenfranchised workers have seen any benefit from the massive cost cutting/layoffs conducted by the corporate elitists. When will shareholders wake up? Never I'm afraid.
You said; In addition what foreign governments will buy all the debt our governments create from they’re over spending if we shut out their products. If foreign governments decided to stop buying our new debt as a "punishment" to us, they would be punishing themselves too because they ALREADY own much of our existing debt. Their losses could mount rapidly on their existing holdings. Selling into such chaos would only bring greater losses more rapidly for the current debt holders. Additionally, some foreign countries "peg" their own currency to the USD so they would have even more to worry about. Furthermore, truly "free market" exchanges such as Forex (FOReign EXchange market which is an international foreign exchange, where money is sold and bought freely) along with other debt and currency trading exchanges would punish EVERYONE of the players who attempted such a scenario.
Consider that the Forex market alone exceeds over $1 TRILLION per day!!! There is not a government on earth that can control such a force of money. In an odd way, it is my sense that holders of existing American debt may have bitten a somewhat unlikely "poison pill." I doubt that American debt holders are anxious to do an economic mano-de-mano on this issue (though one never knows). As a side note, the Gold Standard in America would solve MANY of these concerns (but don't count on it happening). Furthermore, I believe Americans have the "stomach" to instantly change their social and spending habits in a heartbeat if our well-being depended on it. We are capable of "sticking together" when the going gets tough.
You said; I am sorry my friend but America has become a socialist county, that must depend on many other countries for its support,... I hear you, and I understand how you could arrive at this conclusion. However, I don't think we are there yet. There is still much to hope for despite the machinations of the corporate elitists. It may be necessary for a national "belt tightening" across the board - and if packaged as "fun" it might be easier than we think. In the end, Americans will always rise to any challenge that touches our Freedom. Our flaws do not yet exceed our glory. Thank you again for the excellent thoughts goldsaint. I very much appreciate them.
and vote for the politicians. It is we who look to government for what we can personally
get from it and fail to demand quality or value in the products we buy. It is we who watch
as the children get third rate educations as the taxes for teaching them soar year by year.
It's far past time that we simply continue throwing more money at problems and watching
them get worse. It is time we ask what the fundamental problems are and begin to address
them.
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
With the philosophy of our Great grandparents in mind, I believe it is time for every American to tend to their own families, and be aware of drastic changes in our American lifestyles that are, and will continue, to occur.
Perhaps you are right and Americans will change their attitudes and give up part of the pie for the benefit of the whole so who will step forward?
Will it be the Government who will announce they made some terrible mistakes and they will immediately cut the size of government by 50% and retrain all government workers to rebuild American industries that have gone over seas?
Will it be Labor unions, that have for decades demand every pay raise they could get, every benefit for their group i.e. daycare, one month off per year paid, every type of insurance known to mankind, to a point where American workers can no longer compete in world labor markets.
Will it be those snobby corporate Ceo’s who are paid those huge salaries?
How about the baby boomers, if they just gave up their rights to any social security.
Since I am a pessimist on this issue I will leave it to you to figure out just who will do the giving up for the betterment of our society.
get from it”
Cladking, you are of course correct in this statement.
What is bewildering to me is just at what point in time did the word NO disappear from the minds and mouths of our leaders?
and vote for the politicians. It is we who look to government for what we can personally
get from it and fail to demand quality or value in the products we buy. It is we who watch
as the children get third rate educations as the taxes for teaching them soar year by year.
It's far past time that we simply continue throwing more money at problems and watching
them get worse. It is time we ask what the fundamental problems are and begin to address
them.
I agree wholeheartedly.
BTW, if I didn't believe that we will ultimately meet these challenges, I'd sell all of my US coins. That's because, ultimately, the price of a rare US coin is driven by the health of the US economy.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Stuart, thank you for the positive feedback. It is appreciated and valued.
Legend, thank you for the feedback too. I hear you that the light LB action might have just been "digestion" mode after a sizzling summer. My comments in this thead were not focused mainly on our beloved numismatic passion or the current price of an unc Trade dollar though. As you suggest, I will read your commentary at the Legend Website. Thank you for the invitation to read it!
Sliderider, thanks for your suggestion about the OT. That is why I threw in the "1893-S $1 comment" in my last post.
Cladking, thank you for your thoughts too. I agree with them to a degree. In my comments, I was trying to do what you suggested, that is to address what I perceive to be the fundamental problems in America (namely, Elitism that is particularly virulent at the upper Corporate level). Of course, I recognize that others might see the problem elsewhere and that is why open discussion and commentary is so crucial - and so American! We live in a democracy, and of course in a democracy the minority always gets what the majority deserves (whether it be good or bad).
Thanks also to Oreville and Coinasaurus for the feedback and input, and to all the others who commented too - BACK to coins!!!
when its all said and done it's the product !!! that makes or breaks the company
when we wake up and realize as a country we have nothing left but services we'll have the cash to buy them
lets hope we don't have a time when we need to make something for our defense and our trading partners are upset with us