Just some more thoughts about L.B.Show
Bear
Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
It appeared that both collecters and dealers are becoming much more fussy
as to the quality of the coins that they will spend sustantial sums for. Even those collecters
with purchases of less then BU coins are now seeking only PQ examples. What this increasing selectivity
is telling me is this:
Sell the coins you own that just dont measure up to todays demands
Take loses if you must, but raise cash for buying opportunities that will arise
We seem to be entering an unusual period where purchasing mistakes
will prove not only costly, but may be increasingly difficult to sell.
As with the axium in real estate, location, location, location. The purchase of coins
must focus on quality, quality quality. Regardless of grade, the coins one buys must have that
look of class. Surfaces must be clean,marks not distracting, superb color either nice toning or
with origonal skin if white. While I do not have a problem with even several properly done dips,
the washed out look is dead. Dark toneing is dead. These coins will soon not be able to be given away.
Be sure that you have cash reserves so that you will not be forced to sell your finest coins at the worst
possible time. Coin markets can swing quickly in tune with the publics emotional state of mind.
Remember, after a market break, every one can give you a million reasons why it happened, but people
never can predict exactly when it will happen.
Be carful, be alert, be selective and continually review and prune your coin holdings. When a down turn occurs,
those collectors with cash reserves and top quality coins will always do the best.
as to the quality of the coins that they will spend sustantial sums for. Even those collecters
with purchases of less then BU coins are now seeking only PQ examples. What this increasing selectivity
is telling me is this:
Sell the coins you own that just dont measure up to todays demands
Take loses if you must, but raise cash for buying opportunities that will arise
We seem to be entering an unusual period where purchasing mistakes
will prove not only costly, but may be increasingly difficult to sell.
As with the axium in real estate, location, location, location. The purchase of coins
must focus on quality, quality quality. Regardless of grade, the coins one buys must have that
look of class. Surfaces must be clean,marks not distracting, superb color either nice toning or
with origonal skin if white. While I do not have a problem with even several properly done dips,
the washed out look is dead. Dark toneing is dead. These coins will soon not be able to be given away.
Be sure that you have cash reserves so that you will not be forced to sell your finest coins at the worst
possible time. Coin markets can swing quickly in tune with the publics emotional state of mind.
Remember, after a market break, every one can give you a million reasons why it happened, but people
never can predict exactly when it will happen.
Be carful, be alert, be selective and continually review and prune your coin holdings. When a down turn occurs,
those collectors with cash reserves and top quality coins will always do the best.
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The bourse floor was dead, the auctions were dead the deal making was....dead. Is everyone just doing business online?
Hey dealers, why bother getting a table?!! Laibstain, who has good material on his site, was AWOL for several hours, empty cases and I never saw anyone there. David Lawrence, another good dealer, was enjoying Chinese[?] noodles over a mostly empty case. Guys, are you there to model or sell/buy coins? If there's this much disinterest in the first 3 hours of the show I can imagine how things will be by Friday afternoon. This was the quietest LB show I have been to in 5 years.
I saw lots of Morgans, shiny ones, toned ones, ugly ones, etc. Also saw the same ole show coins, those in the case costing tens of thousands but only for show and not for sale.
I was there more as a consignor than a buyer but here's what I did NOT see......Early Gold [vanished], Bust Gold [none], Bust 25c [where are these!!!], Barber Halves [who's hoarding these, I remember when you could find these all over, show me a real PC65 for less than $2k! Other than commons.], Barber Dimes, etc. Of course if you wanted PQ MS99s for moon money you could some of these hiding out but the no problem 'collector coins' in xf40-ms65 were not there.
I'll give the floor another sweep tomorrow AM and then I am flying home, a day early.
For those of you who have never been to a major show my advice is go before they become extinct! They can still be alot of fun.
As travel becomes more of a hassel, more expensive and
more exhausting, we may see dealers only attending 1-2
shows a year. Not all collectors can get to a show on thurs
or friday. By Saterday it all over , the fat lady has sung her song.
Camelot
I believe every true collector should buy what pleases them in their area of specialty regardless of what "the market" favors at any given time.
The internet seems to be killing traditional retail channels in many areas, not just coin sales. This trend is only going to grow if only because of the speed and convenience with which transactions can be carried out. Internet sales are cheaper for sellers because they don't have to print flyers or catalogs or pay postage on said flyers and catalogs to get the word out about their latest acquisitions. I would imagine ad revenues in print publications devoted to the hobby are getting shaky as well. Heck, a large volume ebayer doesn't even need a brick and mortar store anymore. I see small coin shops going out as the owners move their businesses online, and coin shows and auctions vanishing as both buyers and sellers go for the convenience of online bidding rather than going through the hassle of travelling all over the country only to go home disappointed, in many instances.
I agree with most of your comments, especially the "quality for the grade" thinking.
The reason the "ugly" (opinion?), or "average" coins are tough to move right now is that prices have jumped so dramatically in most areas that no one wants to be left with an "average" coin if the market drops. These aren't necessarily "bad" coins, but possibly "bad" buys at current levels?
It's all a matter of balance I guess.
Before the most recent surge in the market, even the "average" stuff had buyers, eager buyers. At these current levels, no one wants to be the one left holding "average" coins at "above average" market prices. Hence the "tougher sell" on the floor.
I appreciate your update of the show, and comments on the market.......always.
LSCC#1864
Ebay Stuff
With a brick 'n mortar shop you have a limited customer base. With a web based business you have the world (or most of it anyway) as your customer base with less overhead. Its basically a no brainer situation IMHO.
Excellent advice as always. I would only contest your point to say that your advice applies in ALL markets. It can be brutal to be stuck with the wrong coin (wrong color, wrong look, etc.).
291fifth... You were claiming the end of the runup 5-6 months ago...
I'm not a believer on "comments on the market". Fine, everyone has an opinion but a few people making observations on the entire market by just walking through a show.... that's silly....
The word at ANA was that LB could be a poor show because the timing would conflict with auction bills from the ANA auctions coming due.
<< <i>Bear..... I think your views have been expressed by other individuals countless times.... It's obvious, even a year ago, to buy only the best...
291fifth... You were claiming the end of the runup 5-6 months ago...
I'm not a believer on "comments on the market". Fine, everyone has an opinion but a few people making observations on the entire market by just walking through a show.... that's silly....
Yes, I was. I believe the market peaked at the FUN show. Since I have been selling for cash during this period I knew very well that the market was softening. When you are out in the market selling for cash you find out very quickly what the real situation is. I have now sold virtually all of the coins that I think will be most affected by this downturn. Solid "collector" coins seem to still have demand but I don't expect to see much price appreciation in the near future. I believe the coin market is now being affected by an economy that finds too many individuals over their heads in debt. A sharp downward correction in the high end of the coin market would not surprise me. Dealers/collectors inability to pay for auction lots purchased could trigger the downward plunge. Reports of many unsold lots at recent auctions means that money is not flowing to the people who consigned the material and expected to use the proceeds to pay for future (or maybe even current) purchases.
still huge quantities of coins that most believe are only marginally collectible that are
being snapped up by newbies and the general public. G indians and full date buffalos
and many other intersting and low price coins are continuing to come out of the wood-
work to satisfy a nearly insatiable demand from wholesalers and others. Besides the
fact that these coins do not exist in unlimited quantities this must still bode well for the
future. There are untold millions of these coins in existence but there are untold millions
of people buying coins also.
At some point coin prices are going to be pushed up from the bottom as the newbies
begin upgrading their collections.
...and thanks for the report and the thread.
<< <i> Reports of many unsold lots at recent auctions means that money is not flowing to the people who consigned the material and expected to use the proceeds to pay for future (or maybe even current) purchases. >>
I think the unsold lots have to do more owners setting unrealistic reserves. As an example, Legend has an 1880-o morgan in dmpl. It hasn't sold on the website, it didn't sell in the Superior auction, it didn't sell on ebay. At some point you realize that either the coin is not all there, or the coin is there but the price doesn't make it for anyone. I take it the coin IS all there, since DWG had intentions of buying it before he passed away, so that leaves the other option ... the price is simply too high.
The market for morgans continues to seem strong; the ones that do not sell seem not to sell because the asking price is too aggressive.
I have found that to be good advice.
Not only do you naturally gravitate to selling stuff you don't really.....LOVE.....but you also constantly gauge the market by the ease or difficulty of the sale.
Just recently I was offered a dinner and "consultant" fees to advise a fellow thinking of buying a coin shop. I told him dinner would be plenty. This fellow had NEVER sold a coin. N E V E R !!!!
Guess what I told him. And....he wisely decided not to do it.
Mike
Maybe those coins in the $5000 and up range are hitting some limits or maybe the dealers just can't find anything to buy, but my experience from the little coin buyers prospective is that coins affordable to the working class collector in PCGS holders have wings.
<< <i>Can't speak for the market over all but there is a strong demand for IHC/FE cents that are "all there". Check the Heritage results and you'll be able to tell by the price which coins those were. There weren't many. I talked with at least 5 serious IHC/FE buyers at the LB show and there was nothing to spend their money on. >>
The problem with this is the "all there". This translates to extreme high end of grade or undergraded...a very small segment of the coins available. Coins in MAJOR brand slabs that are low or mid-range of grade are not doing well at all. I know, I sold some. If your coins aren't in MAJOR brand slabs...forget it, even if they are nice.
Camelot
In addition, the economy is crap - and has been crap for the past four years. Unemployment is much higher than reported. Many - MANY - people have lost their unemployment benefits and yet still remain unemployed (i.e. no income). Are such ones being counted in the jobless figures? Take a guess! Smoke and mirrors are everywhere and most of all in economics.
As the economy continues this nasty path, buyers of everything from coins to hamburger will be cautious (though you won't read about this in the Wall Street Journal and other rags that keep up the BS about the so-called "jobless recovery"). Even a savvy collector might be more inclined to "pass" on that ugly looking rarity that they have been waiting to find for years (I know I have).
Look, with a gallon of milk now at $4.00, a pound of cherries at $5.00, a gallon of gasoline at over $2.00, health care insurance at $1k plus per month per family: who says inflation isn't REALLY in play? Prices on nearly everything are doubling (or nearly so) before our very eyes - suddenly and rapidly. Yet, the real incomes of Mr. and Mrs. Front Porch America are declining. The unfortunate ones who are unemployed have seen their incomes decline and CRASH to ZERO despite the raging increase of costs in nearly everything. Do you really think such ones are buying overhyped DMPL's? Pahleeze. If they are, they are buying it (with credit cards) only to soothe their psychic pain (that soothing lasts about twenty minutes before reality sets in again).
As long as this economy remains in suck territory - and it sucks BIG TIME right now - then expect what any rational man suspects in such circumstances. The elitist aristocratic rich are getting richer while the middle class and poor, well, they get the privilege of trying to sell their ugly coins into an ever discriminating market. If things get bad enough, maybe they will even be selling "apples on the street corner too" (GOD forbid). I know the elitists wouldn't have it any other way. matteproof
<< <i>- and it sucks BIG TIME right now - >>
Hey, don't get personal!
Elwood: I'll tell you what the problem is for Long Beach. I'm fairly certain it has to do with the fact they've moved the show back about a month (each show). The show that used to be in late Feb is now in late Jan (closer to FUN). What used to be the October show is now in early Sept (could be very close to an August ANA).
As to this show: It was a TERRIFIC show....that is if you wanted to buy cleaned and AT coins in "respectable" slabs. Otherwise it was another piece of crap Long Beach show...
jom
I, for one, appreciate your thoughts on these matters
My OmniCoin Collection
My BankNoteBank Collection
Tom, formerly in Albuquerque, NM.
Just my rambling thoughts which probably make no sense at all
of enormous complexity. In time, we may all see light and obtain useful knowledge
that will enrich our collecting habit and protect us from poor management of our collections.
Knowledge is obtained thru experience and experience is unfortunately obtained thru our mistakes.
This Forum is intended to gain the collective experience, without having to repeat all of the collective mistakes.
Camelot