A few Gem Unc seated rarities back on the auction block

roadrunner

While perusing the August ANR sale I couldn't help but notice that the PCGS MS65 1859-s dime was back on the market. It will be interesting to see if this can break its former price record ($90K+).

The Pittman 1844-0 half dime in NGC MS65 is also back to market.
The elusive 1840-0 ND half dime in NGC MS65 (pop 2, tied finest) is also back to market, formerly appearing at the Feb 2002 Benson sale in a PCGS 64 holder ($6000+). But this coin was an exceptional 64 and imo is fine in a 65 holder.

A coin I was not previously aware of is an NGC 65 1864-s quarter.
I was aware of the MS63/64 coin that has been known about for years as well as the Eliasberg MS68. But this MS65 is a new one on me. Anyone know the provenance? This should bring a tidy amount as it will be a lot easier on the wallet than the MS68 but still satisfy one's "gem" taste buds. $40-50K seems reasonable on this one. Could fetch over $50K. This has always been one of the best overall S mints out there. Right up there with the 60-s and 72-s.

roadrunner

tjkillian

I've seen the 1859-S Dime, it was beautiful. At $90k, it is just a tad too rich for my blood. I, too, am not familiar with the 1864-S quarter, I guess I'll have to check it out. Thanks for the heads up.

Tom

tradedollarnut

That dime would be a nice earring for the dollar in the Stellar collection. What a pair!

roadrunner

Yes, and the 1859-s dime would be a nice mate to the MS69 1845-0 dime in the Stellar collection.

roadrunner

tradedollarnut

No, the 59-S dime and the 59-S dollar. Two gem earrings!

roadrunner

But those 2 mismatched gem earrings would tilt some poor souls head to one side! I wish that poor soul were me.

roadrunner

tradedollarnut

You buy 'em and I'll take the dollar off your hands and give you [just about] any ol' dime you want to tilt your head back to level....

dorkkarl

you kidding me? i would LOVE to find those coins in xf!!!

K S

Steve27

With coins like these going on sale, is it an indication that we are at or near the top of the market?

tradedollarnut

With coins like these going on sale, is it an indication that we are at or near the top of the market?

Were we at the top of the market in 1996/97 when all the Eliasberg rarities were sold?

tradedollarnut

A coin I was not previously aware of is an NGC 65 1864-s quarter. I was aware of the MS63/64 coin that has been known about for years as well as the Eliasberg MS68. But this MS65 is a new one on me. Anyone know the provenance?

ex: PCGS MS64 last sold as lot 2455 Superior May 2003. Will the upgrades never end?

Dennis88

For how much did it sold then TDN???

Dennis

tradedollarnut

$27,600

Sunnywood

I have commented previously on these Boards that the lifecycle of coins in their holders is decreasing, as is their tenure in owners' hands. Both of these are abstract measures of the "velocity" in this market. The substantially and rapidly increased velocity indicates a high degree of speculation in this market.

To clarify this, what I am saying is that coins are getting constantly resubmitted and recycled. It is remarkable how many PCGS-certified coins are in the newer holders with eight-digit cert numbers. It is also remarkable how many times the same coins come back to market. One 1878 8TF Morgan NGC MS65 realized $1500 +/- in the Bowers Lindesmith Sale a couple of years ago, then journeyed in and out of holders until it got into a PCGS MS66 holder, and realized $20K in a Superior auction earlier this year. I have seen proof gold coming out of older pedigreed holders, going to NCS for conservation, and showing up in NGC CAM and UCAM holders at the next higher grade. I have also seen the same coins showing up three or four times, in the same graded holder (e.g. PCGS MS66), but with different cert numbers every time. I have seen important coins getting flipped over and over.

Where are the "end users"? The "strong hands" that buy and hold? Why are some of the best coins going 'round and 'round? It is because there are too many dealer-speculators who buy to flip, buy to upgrade, buy to recycle at stronger auctions like ANA. Always the velocity increases ... until the bottom falls out. Then the speculators will be caught holding the bag, while the true collectors will be unscathed because they weren't buying for profit in the first place, and have no immediate need to sell.

The astute long-term buyers among us will gather the rosebuds while ye may ...

Best,
Sunnywood

Sunnywood

Further comment: why is the high velocity a problem? Because it indicates that coins are not getting bought and sold based on an end-user's assessment of their intrinsic value. Rather, they are getting bought and sold based on the "greater fool" theory - an expectation that no matter what the buyer pays, someone else will be willing to pay more down the line. Thus, as velocity increases, the prices realized begin to shift upward from intrinsic values and head into the realm of purely speculative numbers.

Note that here, "intrinsic value" is not the face value or the bullion content, but rather the average price that a true collector is willing to pay without regard to market fluctuations or expectations of profit. Intrinsic value is hard to put a real number on, except by reference to periods in which the market was flat and quiet, such as the mid-90's.

Once the fools realize that the supply of greater fools has dried up, there will be hell to pay. It is like a game of musical chairs. The music stops, and someone is caught standing, probably with their pants down.

Best,
Sunnywood

zep

zep

I think there are a lot of coin collections that will not turn over any time soon. Many important rare coins reside in long term multi-generation collections. Despite the higher values and despite the increase auction house volume, these collectors still complain that they cannot find coins to fit their sets. Apparently not everything is for sale.

roadrunner

Nice catch on that 1864-s quarter TDN. I had it annotated in my pop report but had assumed that it was an upgrade of the PCGS MS63 coin that had been around the market for the past few decades. It's hard to believe that one coin represents those 3 grades so maybe there was a 2nd fresher coin added to the market.
The photo of the 64-s showed it to be quite lustrous and imo could not be confused with an MS63, even 15 years ago.

In any case someone will make at least $10K on this one when it sells.

roadrunner