Coin Market predictions for the second half of 2004?
GOLDSAINT
Posts: 2,148 ✭
Wow the first half of this year just flew by. It has been an interesting first half in the coin market but it appears to me this is not the same, “White Hot Market” that we saw in 2003, with prices increasing every month. My personal experience in building my extended type set is that prices in the overall market have stopped increasing and have become a little soft in many areas. The last few months I have been pleasantly surprised to bid on coins and find I won many bids at 10% to 20% back of retail pricing, and what I am currently buying is all relatively hard material.
As I pull up auctions on Heritage and Teletrade many of the comps from 2003 are actually higher than the recommended or closing prices now.
It also appears that the latest show reports here are mixed, with reports of dealer buying slow downs, and more lookers than real buyers.
Small sectors of the market, like registry material and unique colored coins still seem to have lots of competition, as well as very high-grade, very expensive, types.
In the economic world most everything is just stuck in place with the stock market unable to recover its four year ago highs, bonds stuck at low rates, CD’s and other cash instruments stuck at low rates, and Gold and silver stuck below there early year highs, with platinum still way down.
So what are your predictions for our coin market for the second half of this year?
HAPPY 4TH EVERYONE !!!!!!!!!
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Comments
I foresee a continue rise in the value of generics like MS64-67 Morgans, Peace dollars, classic commems, and Saints. Promoters need these and this will continue for the rest of the year. I would expect MS65 Morgans to hit $140-150 by year's end. There will be another move in the Saints where 64's reach well into the $750-850 range and 65's to $1400-1750. JMO.
Shipwreck effect coins will continue to drop in value....surprise!!
Blue chip type will continue to be strong for the rest of the year.
The upcoming ANR sale in NY has memorable examples of nice type.
roadrunner
“The broadest measure of money supply in the United States is M3. M3 has increased by an average of 7.93% per year since 2000. Had all else been equal, we should have seen an almost eight percent annual increase in prices. Yet the average increase in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has been only 2.1% since 2000; why has it not been closer to eight?”
I think we have inflation in this market driving many of the coin prices, but my prediction for the rest of the year is that the market will stagnate some, as people have to spend more money on the necessities of life, good Lord the price of milk has doubled in 12 months. The consumer has been the driving force in this market, using every bit of credit they have. As interest rates go up I think they will pull in their horns and become more conservative.
I also think if Bush is reelected and can concentrate finally on the economy we may see things at least get back to normal. If Kerry is elected then it is my belief things will be in turmoil for many years.
Older Americans that are the real income producers in this economy are going to hit the wall and many are retiring. We already have a situation where only 5% of American workers are paying 50% of all taxes, and most of these people are at retirement age. If we get a liberal tax and spend government in the fall and people’s real spendable incomes again drop I think this coin market will take a BIG dip.
JimP
I think it takes years for the full effect of a massive M3 increase to make its way throught the economy and result in rising prices. We still have a long ways to go imo. In the 1970's it took half the decade to finally feel the full effect by 1979-1980. Stagflation will probably be seen in the real economy and in a way, the same thing thing will occur in coins. That is, the best coins will continue to see price inflation, while the also-rans will stagnate or even lose value as quality conscious buyers (and dealers) avoid them. The same is occurring in other collectible markets, cars being one of them.
roadrunner
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
will decrease in value. The premo coins and rare date coins in original condition ,will increase in value but at a
reduced pace . Repeat after me, QUALITY, QUALITY,QUALITY.
Camelot
"the price of milk has doubled in the last 12 months"
this is true,i know several dairy men,12-15 months ago who were losing about 2 bucks a day per head of cattle on milk !
if you have a small dairy of say 900 head thats 1800.00 a day even when milk was about 10.00 a 100lbs of raw milk to the farmer !
not to mention the testing for penicillin,if you had a truckload that tested positive for that,the whole load went to calf ranches @ .25 thats 25 cents for 8 gallons ! as much as 8000 gallons a load, too many humans are allergic !
Dairymen bust butt for us !
and i dont even drink the stuff !
Proof
Now there's a waiting list for the same coins at 16+ grand and in fact I would have to pay 14K + today to get the inventory ( and I do to handle the deal). And the vast majority of the offerings are crappola to boot in terms of quality. So my customers who "reluctantly" purchased the few dozen of these coins from me at an average of 6500-8,000 AND who got real hand picked cherries at these prices to boot, have become my biggest source of inventory who have been having a lot of fun and making money on selling but what's really funny is that some of them have gotten nearly as tough to buy these coins back from as they were to get them to buy them from me in the first place!
You have got to me kidding me.
Now in my humble opinion and grant it I'm no "expert" in early gold, but have in fact placed in retail ( oooh hate that word huh?) collections several hundred early gold coins which for the most part remain off the market ( but I'm getting several back almost every week in trade deals and liquidations), the market for more common early gold has become somewhat a game of musical chairs. To those who have posted and even sent me emails and called me on the phone about "really wanting to buy one of those eagles but want the best strike, luster, possible break outs, will pay AS MUCH as 13 grand for a 99 in 58 (
Varietal rarities are a different story. Last year, a real 'sharp" investor passed on a high R-7 1799 Eagle ( maybe an R-8) in real 58 for 13,500. Said the premium over common was too high. This is the same individual who felt compelled to pay heritage 75 G's ( such a deal) for an 18/17-S quarter in 64 FH which of course wasn't a full head after all, and ultimately found that out after "making a deal" to sell it for less than 40G's. I believe there were a couple of "experts" on this board who swore the coin was a Full Head and what a coin ( not mentioning names, you know who you are) and were quite vocal ( in an expert sense) about it in their price evaluations until I said "if that an offer"? to which there became silence. Varietal rarities in early gold in my opinion are a good buy but the fact is that most dealers haven't a clue as to how to spot one.
Meanwhile back in the happy ranch of early gold specialities, I would really be happy to buy that high R-7 and give my other customer whose brain has evolved better than most and who jumped at the opportunity to own it, a profit.
It's a great business but if you're going to allocate big bucks for coins, buy what you like, don't chase the commons as you will be left without a chair when the music stops. If you can't figure out what that means, you are better off with a CD. Take the time to learn, develop a relationship with a dealer who will help you ( be realistic and that could happen), and that knowledge will help you "pick' the rarities which will make you happy over the long term.
I'm off the box now.
Have a happy and safe 4th of July weekend.
Rgrds
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I have sold auto parts for many years,the last 6 as a wholesale field rep.
customers want the best price,the best quality,and the best service.
cant happen,best you can do is let them pick any 2 and go from there.
Proof
Anyone who has looked at prices of BU war nickel rolls in the last 6-9 months will understand that 50% annualized increases in some cases may be a bit understated. They have been raging hot.
As the economy continues to improve, rising interest rates will keep the growth slow and steady. Consumer confidence returns during the 4th quarter as the election picture becomes more clear and Bush gets a second term.
Coins in general take a break, giving collectors one last opportunity to aquire difficult dates before heading even higher near years end and beyond.
Or........not.
When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.
Thomas Paine
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Interesting dealer perspective from Tom P. Makes me not want to buy any early gold until the next trough. >>
Just the facts RK, nothing but the facts.
Rgrds
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Good luck to everybody!
Jerry