A different collecting strategy?

Geoman

I am thinking about what someone at my local coin club meeting told me - that he is collecting certain dates of coins that have low mintages, that do not seem to be commanding the prices they deserve for their lower mintages. For example, 1938-D Walker has less than 500,000 for its mintage, but you still can get VF examples for less than $50. Similar, the 1899 Morgan only has a mintage of 330,000. But these are really reasonable priced considering the grade.

Why is this? Do you think some of these dates are just ignored? Will the market catch up with these certain dates in the future as we continue to gain new collectors? It is an interesting way to collect some coins. He showed me a vinyl page that holds 20 2x2's, and he had then entire page full of 1938-D Walkers. Pretty neat.

What other dates and denominations do you think have very low mintages for the relatively low prices?

Placid

Mintage does not equal survival rate. Many of the low mintage coins were set aside by collectors close to the time they were minted because they had low mintages and have a high number in high grade today because of that.
Often times the coins that were higher mintage were ignored and few saved so high grade examples are hard to find.

Goldfinger

It sounds like a crude investment strategy rather than a collecting strategy, for the reasons Placid states.

haletj

Yeah, lots of people saved 38-d walkers. Many of the other dates mostly went to the melting pots. You can do a little reseach and figure out what date is best to save... 37-d Walkers seem to be the underated date . But not just scarcity, but demand too figures in, for I always wondered why 27-s quarters were so cheap in low grade with such a tiny mintage, and then someone told me why... no once collects low grade SLQ because it is hard to see the dates. (but IHC or Merc's for example people still love even low grade ones!).

Veep

Those guys hit it on the head. I have owned an MS66 1938-D half for three years and in this "hot" market, it has only appreciated a few hundred dollars. I also used to own a sweet AU55. I bought it at least ten years ago and no longer have it. But, looking at Coin World Trends recently, I see that its still going for about the same price.

lava

Nice job Placid. It is all about survival rate. Instead of looking at mintages, look at the population reports. Granted the pop numbers are off because of crack outs/resubmissions, but if anything that means the pop numbers are overstated.

jdimmick

I agree with the comments, those low mintage dates are not as pricey, becuase there are actually quite a few availble. Many of these dates were hoarded at time of release or shortly after, and even though the mintage seems significantly lower, the survivability is considerably higher. It would take a tremendous amount of new collectors onto the market to absorb several of these specific date/type coins which I dont think will happen, or it would have already. I always say, one should collect what ones want, but IMO, this is not a very good idea if your main reason is investment driven.

some of the dates that come to mind are:
1931-s lincoln
1931-s buffalo
1950-d Jefferson
1931-d merc
1938-d walker as you mentioned

some of the dates will slowly advance as collectors need them for sets, but the advance will probably be minimal.

prooflike

A proper low mintage strategy would be to select those issues that also have a **high demand** in the circulated rates, such as 1877 IHCs and 1916-D dimes.

Geoman

Okay, that makes sense. I really wasn't thinking of survival rates. Instead, I was thinking in terms of total mintage. I agree with the theory if a particular coin has a lower mintage (ie: 1938-D Walker) that it was probably saved at a much higher rate.

But even so, if it was saved at a 95% rate, the total coins still out there is less than 500,000. Whereas another coin that had a mintage of 5,000,000, maybe only 25% where saved, but that is still over a millions coins. So if the true market value is based upon coins available (ie: supply and demand), you would think certain coins could be a better bargain??? I don't know, as maybe I am not getting this survival rate correct. Of course, this may be considered an investment problem, instead of a collection strategy.

One reason why I am thinking 38-D Walkers, is that there is someone I know that is collecting a "roll set" of circulated Walkers all in Fine grade. I thought it was a neat idea to try and complete a "roll set" of any particular series. And was wondering about the lower mintages in a series, and if it is worth it. Just another interesting way to collect coins maybe?!