The price of silver relative to what happened with the Hunt Brother's run-up.

keets

It seems that silver has been fluctuating back and forth, up and down for quite a while now. Many members have posed opinions as to why it goes up and why it sinks back down, all well and good but to be honest, there probably is no definitive answer to that question. What comes to my mind is the old saying that If we fail to learn from histiry, we are bound to repeat it. That brings me to the point I had hoped some would enlighten me on.

What I was wondering about today is if there was some magical point that silver hit back in 1980 after a similar see-saw period?? I imagine that the "magical point" would be a price when the graph stopped going up and down and began it's rise to the zenith of $50+ before it plumetted down. Was there such a price that can be pointed to?? If so, what do think the conditions would be to generate the same phenomenon today?? Would it be recognizable?? What do you think that the price might be??

Thanks.

Al H.

Iwog

I think if speculative fever hit the silver market this time, we could see $100 an ounce not just $50. Here are the factors.

- No more government sales of silver to the public. The strategic supply is exhausted.
- Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are both very bullish and hold substantial positions in silver metal and futures. This is VERY important as it legitimizes silver as an invesment.
- Interest rates are extremely low and stock market returns suck right now. There's a lot of money looking for a home.
- The media hype machine is far more sophisticated now than in 1980. All speculation from beanie babies to the 13,000 dow get magnified.
- Silver price is artificially depressed now because classic investing 101 teaches metals rise with interest rates. I've never liked the "hedge against inflation" model of silver and see silver as much more of an industrial commodity that obeys the rules of supply and demand.
- Wealth disparity has grown extreme since 1980 and ultra rich folk tend to make riskier investment decisions.
- I own a lot of silver coins.

Cha ching!

ddink

Keets: the very problem with the silver market is that it can be stopped at any time. When silver peaked at $50 an ounce, that's WHY it started going down again. The Hunt brothers were still trying to buy, but COMEX cut them off at the knees. COMEX doubled their margin call and suspended the buying of silver (but continued to allow the selling of silver). When COMEX steps in and stops silver from being traded is when you can see the price fall, provided that it's rising due to market interference as with the Hunt brothers.



<< <i>- Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are both very bullish and hold substantial positions in silver metal and futures. This is VERY important as it legitimizes silver as an invesment. >>



IWOG: It doesn't legitimize silver as an investment, it legitimizes silver as a HEDGE. You have got to remember, those "substantial positions" represent no more than 1-5% of Buffett's and Gate's total wealth. If they were investing in silver you'd see a much higher stake (percentage wise). What you see is no different than what Joe Blow does--he puts 5% of his assets into silver/gold as a hedge, just like his friendly financial advisor tells him to do. With Buffett and Gates, 5% is a LOT of money, but it's not an investment position, it's a hedge position. What they do is similar to the European central banks. Interest rates are lower than the rate of inflation now, so by holding money in the bank, Buffett and Gates would be losing about 5% of their money every year. Instead they put their liquidity into silver as a form of capital preservation, and a hedge. Or, to be brief, they believe that silver is more stable right now than is the dollar.

MoneyLA

This time around the bull run for silver has nothing to do with anyone in the USA trying to manipulate contracts or COMEX... this time the demand is coming from industry in general and China in particular. China is also pushing up prices for steel, oil, and other commodities -- even gold.

I don't know if silver will return to the $50 record high of 1980, but it doesnt have to in this bull market.

I've written extensively about the 17-to-1 gold to silver price ratio and based on that silver today should be about $24 an ounce.

The gold bull market started more than a year ago when gold went north of $311 an ounce, and now silver is following and on a percentage basis will overtake gold's bull market lead.

I wrote in another related thread that while Morgans were the star of the last bull market, Im not sure that Morgans will be the star of this bull market -- though Morgans will certainly benefit.

My articles -- going back two years on the subject of gold and silver -- are in the Money Alerts section of my website. And they are "dated."

cheers, alan mendelson

keets

hey ddink

i'm more interested in a price it might climb slowly to in it's typical up/down fashion that would signal it's steady rise. was there such a starting point with the Hunts??

al h.

MoneyLA

Keets, what you are asking for is a "break out" point on a chart of silver prices. I don't have such a chart, but if you had a five-year chart look for a pattern of ups and downs that leads to a sudden rise -- a break out point.

Here's a quick summary of "technical analysis:"

all investments have price patterns -- highs, lows and mid-ranges. these levels can be called over bought or over sold, etc. when a commodity breaks up or breaks down from these ranges you either want to buy or sell accordingly.

you are looking for the upside break out.

silver recently made a 16 year high, so we might be there already for this cycle. cheers, alan mendelson

ddink

Good question Keets. I'm not sure about that--the whole time the Hunt brothers were buying and constantly pushing the price up, thus altering the true dynamics of the market.

MoneyLA: I have a hard time believing that when one commodity has its price set by the government, that its relationship to the value of another commodity can be valid for comparison. That's like saying soy beans are worth twice as much (historically) as wheat, but the price of soy beans is fixed by the government and cannot change, while wheat can be driven by supply and demand. Gold and silver are linked, but no so inextricably that silver MUST ALWAYS price itself at a certain level compared to gold.

The 17:1 ratio can't possibly be valid with governments controlling the price of gold, or silver, or both, for the last 2000 years, until the mid-1970s. I would argue your point in reverse: that at a 17:1 ratio, GOLD was *massively* UNDERvalued compared to silver and that after it was uncapped it sought (and achieved) a desired value ratio. Or to summarize, rather than silver desiring a 17:1 ratio with gold, gold desires a 50:1 ratio against silver; it simply was unable to achieve that desired ratio until the government deregulated the price of gold.

Or to argue a different way: people who use silver in industry have no use for gold. People who use gold in industry have no need for silver. Gold and silver are similar in that they are both precious metals, and have historically been used as currency (and are seen as having intrinsic value), but they are also VERY different too. I think it's a mistake to believe gold and silver must be inextricably linked and MUST follow a particular ratio.

MoneyLA

ddink, you make a good point in your discussion about price ratios... but right now the commodity markets are all "abuzz" about the undervalued ratio and that is why silver is getting so much interest now. you might not beleive it, but there are a lot of believers. silver at $24 an ounce is coming fast. cheers, alan mendelson

MoneyLA

this is a chart from the silver institute and shows annual changes. unfortunately, what we need is a weekly chart or a monthly chart to show the break out point. all this shows is that in 1979 the average price for silver doubled from 1978. so I would think that the breakout occured in 1979 somewhere above $5.50 an ounce.

YEAR HIGH LOW AVERAGE

1980 48.7000 10.8000 20.6568

1979 34.4500 5.9230 11.1135

1978 6.3170 4.8110 5.4068

1977 4.9760 4.2850 4.6235

1976 5.1370 3.8340 4.3506

1975 5.2500 3.9200 4.4193

cheers, alan mendelson

JJacks

First of all, I will admit I am not an expert here, but don't gold and silver generally go up based on inflation and high-interest rates? With high inflation and high interest rates, the market is often tough and people turn to metals such as gold.

Look at the following charts on this site:
Gold 1970-

Silver 1970-2002

Bond yields 30 years 1960-

I don't know that current interest rates and inflation are high enough to support silver anywhere near $50, even $25.

JJacks

MoneyLA

Hi, I looked at the long term silver chart here on the pcgs site and it appears that the break out price for silver was about $6 in January of 1979.

here is the link to the chart

link

look at the January 79 price, clearly above the previous highs, and this would mark the break out point. a monthly or weekly chart would be better to read this market.

using the chart for gold it appears that gold had its breakout at the $195 price in the fall of 1978

gold chart

cheers, alan mendelson

oreville

I happen to believe that a fair value for silver based on the more valid 35/1 ratio that we have seen for most of the 20th century and indeed for part of the 19th century would be
about $11.85 an ounce.

$24 an ounce would require gold to be quite bullish reaching $840 an ounce at the same time. It is indeed possible.

cladking

Silver is likely to end up at a much higher price relative to gold. The historic reason
for the difference in price is government manipulation as a result of the metal's rel-
ative abundance. Silver, however, is consumed to a much greater degree than gold.
Silver also is far more important in technology and is likely to become even more im-
portant. This also makes it an attractive investment or speculation. There are only
three or four ounces of silver for every man, woman, and child on the planet. This is
not to say that any such move is about to occur or will in the near future.

There were people who seemed to think that silver broke out in 1979 when it hit $10.
It was in September when it hit about $8 that it seemed to be off to the races for me.
After it hit about $18 or $20 most people just shook their heads when asked about
what was going on. Even bulls were in a state of shock. It was limit up for a couple
weeks straight in January, '80.

ddink

<< <i>I happen to believe that a fair value for silver based on the more valid 35/1 ratio that we have seen for most of the 20th century and indeed for part of the 19th century >>



IMO that's not a "valid ratio" since at that time the price of gold was capped by the government at $35 an ounce. Look at what happened when the government deregulated the price of gold--gold went up tremendously but silver didn't move very much, as the two metals sought their desired ratios. I happen to believe that the ratio gold and silver attained immediately after the deregulation of gold is the "real" ratio that the two metals strive to achieve.

BTW: IMO the real talk shouldn't be about ratios, but about consumption. We consume far more silver than we produce, and above-ground (disposable) silver supplies are in the 800 million ounce range. Since most silver is a byproduct of mining other metals and there are only something like 10 pure silver mines in the world, I don't think the supply will ever be able to catch up to the demand. This should lead to slow, long-term price increases. However, Wall Street LOVES to play with silver, constantly shorting it. It is in the best interests of COMEX to keep silver prices low (why do you think they doubled the margin call on the Hunt bros?), which means when silver does break out of the control of the powers-that-be, a meteoric rise is possible, since the slow, steady rise has been suppressed too long. Kind of like a dam springing a leak--when the dam does go, it may all go in a rush. Then again, maybe not. Who knows?

Bear

While I dont know the answer, very interesting thread.

MoneyLA

interesting stats about the amount of silver available per capita. Im curious about the source? its part of the bullish argument which I wholeheartedly agree with.

another question: I heard some figure about how much the entire world supply of silver would cost to purchase-- and it was something modest.

if 800 million ounces at $10 an ounce, that would be eight billion dollars to own it all? or is there another number and Im way off??

cheers, alan

MoneyLA

Keets, I had some time this evening and looked over the silver pcgs charts for three years and for ten years, and this is what I see:

on the three year chart, the break out point was at $5.

on the ten year chart the break out point was $6.50.

technical analysis would rarely look at any chart longer than five years, so it is safe to say the silver bull is charging.

thanks for the idea about break out points -- Im going to update my website articles.

cheers, alan mendelson

oldcameoproofsguy

I've read that industrial demand for silver is rising dramatically. There are many new applications for silver and it should reach $10 and ounce in the next couple of years. When it hits $10 an ounce mining for silver will start to rise again. Right now mining for silver is only profitable if a mine has very rich ores. At $10 an ounce even extraction from poor ores can be profitable. If silver reaches $10 an ounce, silver mining based stocks will probably do well. Until then, silver will at worst hold it's present value.

MoneyLA

oldcameoproofsguy raises an interesting question: anyone know the cost of mining and refining an ounce of silver?? cheers, alan mendelson

ddink

Alan, my source on the 800 million ounces of disposible silver was this guy's article:

<< <i>http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2003/0702.htm >>



The Hunt brothers owned half of the above-ground disposable silver during the 1979-1980 price run when it hit $50 an ounce. It would cost vastly more than $8 billion to buy all the world's silver, when you consider that after the first 200 million ounces the price will be $50 an ounce, then $100 an ounce after the next 200 million ounces, and so on (actually probably more, since the increase would likely be exponential).

Remember, too, how inflexible the market is. Of those 800 million ounces, many are owned by investers in silver eagles, 10 oz. bullion bars, etc. (in other words, by us poor people!) and aren't immediately accessible to someone trying to buy the entire market. 25 years ago the Hunt bros were paying $150 million a year to store their silver, so you have to count those costs too, along with the fact that COMEX can close down all silver purchases. Still, it's very easy for an extremely wealthy person to acquire a substantial percentage of the world's silver.

Oldcameo: that is true, but bear in mind (check the above link) that there are fewer than 10 silver mines in the world. All the rest of the silver is a byproduct of mining other metals. So they could dig deeper, but there just aren't enough purely silver mines to influence the price of silver that drastically.

Alan:

<< <i>anyone know the cost of mining and refining an ounce of silver >>



Depends on the richness of the silver vein.

MoneyLA

ddink your expectation that the price of silver would rise dramatically if there were another effort to corner the market is right on target.

my point is that it wouldn't take THAT MUCH money to buy it all -- or at least the part of the world supply that might be offered for sale; hence the rarity and the chances of a bull run.

thanks for the info.

cheers, alan mendelson

ddink

Very true; if he could get his money out of Microsoft stock and into cash, Bill Gates could easily buy 10-20% of the supply of silver in a hearbeat without substantially depleting his finances. Incredible, isn't it?

MoneyLA

In fact, the Gates Facotr and the Buffett Factor are two of the big rumors flying around the markets now. the other big factor has been dubbed "The China Syndrome" and this is not a rumor but a fact -- demand from china pushing prices up.

I asked this in another thread: any of you see junk silver evaporating from local coin stores?? twice this week my local coin shop sold out of its junk silver -- but more came in for sale as buy price rose.

cheers, alan mendelson

MoneyLA

the silver bull continues to stampede. cheers, alan mendelson

CoinHusker

Ive asked before in a previous thread but never got a response so I'll try again. has anyone else heard that Buffet sold his silver interests last year or so?

ddink

Back when I was closely following silver a couple years ago I heard that there were rumors Buffett sold his silver and nobody was sure since the silver was such a small percentage of the assets of Berkshire-Hatthaway that it wasn't required to report on the silver (it was just thrown in with "Misc.").

CoinHusker

Thanks. I think I read something about that it was the Deutch Bank that first reported the sale but never heard anything else about it.

MoneyLA

Coin Husker: a big silver trader I know says he does NOT know the answer. he says there has not been an official report either way. he "guesses" that buffett still owns the silver.

now, Im curious about the Gates rumor, or is it a fact?

cheers, alan mendelson

CoinHusker

Well, since Warren lives across town from me, I guess I'll just have to go over to his place and ask him.

MoneyLA

CoinHusker: too bad it's not Halloween. You could trick or treat his place, and see if he gives you a copper, nickel or silver coin for your Unicef box?

cheers, alan mendelson

CoinHusker

I'm a little to old to trick or treat but I do have an acquaintence that plays bridge with him once in a while.

bulloncoins

<< <i>Ive asked before in a previous thread but never got a response so I'll try again. has anyone else heard that Buffet sold his silver interests last year or so? >>



I have heard rumors that Buffet agreed to lease his silver holdings. It would help the shorts keep the prices from rising too fast.

roadrunner

I've read one source which indicated that the amount of shorts is 3x the available supply of silver. In other words if all the shorts had to deliver REAL silver (not paper contracts) that 2/3 of the people who were owed the silver would be left hanging. The shorting of silver is a major game and the actual supplies of it is very low, yet there is much disinformation to the public to tell them that silver is a BAD play. Look what happened to the HUNTS! Indeed, the govt changed the rules because the HUNTS had outplayed the shorts. WE just cannot have that now can we.

Silver will continue to fluctuate and cycle all the way to its future high. Don't expect a dramatic pop right yet. This will take some time.

roadrunner

oreville

DDINK: Your comment:

,<<<<<<<<<<<<<IMO that's not a "valid ratio" since at that time the price of gold was capped by the government at $35 an ounce. Look at what happened when the government deregulated the price of gold--gold went up tremendously but silver didn't move very much, as the two metals sought their desired ratios. I happen to believe that the ratio gold and silver attained immediately after the deregulation of gold is the "real" ratio that the two metals strive to achieve. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Your comment is incorrect

Why??????????

You forgot to mention silver had previously been effectively deregulated by the Feds some years before back in the 1960's when they withdrew silver from our coinage. Silver was free to move from its $1.29 benchmark price in 1966 to $4.71 in 1974. (Note the Feds honored the $1.29 silver price until 1968 when they finally closed the door on redeeming silver $1 paper certificates for silver). At that time silver was still in the $1.40 -$1.50 range despite a speculative runup in price that was arrested by the US government issuance of the 40% silver halves through 1970.

So when US President Richard Nixon finally took the US dollar off the international gold standard in August 1971, gold was still around $40 per ounce. This move was effectively the end of the regulation of gold prices outside the US despite the domestic DEregulation that followed a few years later. Sure gold tripled to $120 an ounce within 2 years by 1973. But so did silver to the high $4 range as well.

These were the actual true early years of the "deregulation" of silver and gold.

ddink

Roadrunner: take into consideration the leases on silver too. There is actually probably the appearance of 5x more silver on the market than actually exists. Totally in agreement about the perfidy of the COMEX officials after they lost too much money on silver shorts when the price rose and forced a change of rules in mid-stream.

Oreville: I don't really understand your post. Are you saying that the price of gold rose more slowly than the price of silver, when gold prices were deregulated?

As far as ratios go, I simply don't understand why there HAS to be one "right" ratio between gold and silver. What makes you think silver absolutely attempts to adjust itself so it's exactly the price of 1/17th an ounce of gold? Apples and oranges here.

Silver will rise in price, over time, but not because of any mythical relationship to gold, but because consumption outstrips supply. There are about 800 million ounces of silver in the world. In ten years there will be about 650 million ounces. Fifty years from today there will be (all else being equal, naturally) fewer than 300 million ounces. THAT is why silver will rise in price, not because it seeks some exact ratio with gold.

I'm mixed on the "how" of it all. In an unhindered market silver should be gradually rising in price every year, but the market is totally suppressed. However, with COMEX and major silver holders shorting silver, selling futures, and leasing it, I'm half-convinced that rather than the gradual rise in the price of silver, one of these days we will see an absolute blow-out as silver finally "corrects" its price upward (just as we see stocks "correct" themselves downward). COMEX can suspend trading all they want at that point, but with so little physical silver left, the real trading price of silver will totally bypass the New York Spot as it passes from individual to individual rather than through the major trading houses (just like if selling of MSFT stock was halted and neighbors starting trading physical stock certificates with one another rather than through the stock exchange. This may not happen for decades, however.

P.S.: I'm still reeling after reading this article: http://kitco.com/ind/Puplava/mar092004.html ... if you had invested just $1000 in Cisco stock in 1990 and sold eight years later when the stock was at its peak, your $1000 in stock would have been worth $1.64 million. Unreal. Cisco once paid (all in stock, of course) $7 BILLION for a company that had LOST $20 million in its first year of operation. Sorry to get off-topic, but that $1000 to $1.6 million thing threw me for a loop!

cladking

<< <i>interesting stats about the amount of silver available per capita. Im curious about the source? its part of the bullish argument which I wholeheartedly agree with.

another question: I heard some figure about how much the entire world supply of silver would cost to purchase-- and it was something modest.

if 800 million ounces at $10 an ounce, that would be eight billion dollars to own it all? or is there another number and Im way off??

cheers, alan >>



800 million ounces might be about what's available to back up the commodities markets. I'd
have guessed the number to be somewhat lower than this though. Many contracts can be
issued on the same silver since few of the traders in these markets will want to take physical
delivery. If they do then the exchange can simply buy more silver in the markets to replace it.
The amount of silver for this use would be determined primarily by tradition and needs more so
than physical limits and will normally fluctuate little over short periods.

The total amount of silver per capita to which I refer is the combined amount of silver in all hordes,
including that which is in actual use but will be recovrable. It does not include silver in landfills
and the like. I've merely taken the highest and lowest estimate from various sources and divided
by world population. The highest number is near the total amount of silver ever mined. I've seen
at least two or three of these estimates and numbers from The Silver Institute are among them.

There is some ratio that is always trying to be achieved since there always is some price that gold
and silver tend toward. This number will vary over time and there have been dramatic structural
and perceptual changes since 1980. There has been a greatly diminished silver supply and a signif-
icantly greater enhancement in gold supply. There is also an ever increasing array of products and
processes which only silver can be used for. Certainly increased prices for silver would change the
both the supply and demand in such a way which would be detrimental to price.

ddink

The 800 million ounces is what is able to be sold. The rest is in undiscovered silver coins still circulating, antique jewelry, etc., which COULD be sold, but isn't considered liquid.



<< <i>800 million ounces might be about what's available to back up the commodities markets. I'd >>



Actually, that number is less than 144 million ounces. http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2003/0702.htm. According to http://kitco.com/ind/Puplava/mar092004.html there are a billion ounces being shorted or held on paper.

My point about ratios is simply that gold and silver, while related in the sense of being precious metals, are really apples and oranges. Gold users in industry care nothing about silver, and silver users care nothing about gold. They each have their own markets: gold for wealthier people, silver for less wealthy people (in general, of course). It's like saying Target and Walmart stock always seek a certain ratio since they are both retailers. I just think the 17:1 or 20:1 or 35:1 or whatever ratio of silver to gold is a fallacy. When prices are free to set themselves on the open market, silver and gold seek their own prices, irrespective of the other.

cladking

The Chicago commodity exchanges are backed by around 144 million troy OZ. Ag. I have
no knowledge of what backs the foreign commodity markets if anything. But there is a great
deal more than even twenty billion ounces of silver. Granted at least half of it is extremely illiquid
because it is tied up in x-rays or contacts in computers or the like. Silver doesn't get lost or de-
stroyed in large amounts and 95% of all of it ever mined has been since the 1870's.

I am referring to the entire world supply rather than just this country's.

ddink

Cladking: 50% of the silver mined every year is CONSUMED (destroyed) in industrial processes. All I'm able to do is refer you to websites where the so-called "experts" speculate as to how much silver is extant, which they say is about 5 billion ounces, with less than a billion of those ounces actually remotely liquid. What sources have you read that say 20 billion ounces are around? I've been looking for some anti-silver websites (sites that think silver is going to be a bust, long-term) but haven't found any yet. I'd love to check some out if you have the URLs.

keets

I asked this in another thread: any of you see junk silver evaporating from local coin stores?? twice this week my local coin shop sold out of its junk silver -- but more came in for sale as buy price rose.

the local guy is very active in "scrap" silver, silver bullion and silver rounds. he has an established network of supplier dealers or "holders" who have quite large amounts that they've been sitting on and move a little at a time as prices make it profitable. that's been happening more frequently as of late. local collectors and flea market dealers who have stashes of junk silver coins have sold off some when it peaks and i know of a few who are waiting for the magical 5-times-face price which the locals are just shy of paying.

my buddy is pretty sharp with buying and selling bulk lots. he's learned discipline from the highs and lows, always remembering the overnight drop in 1980. often times he'll ask me to help him go through the bulk lots to pick out keys, nicer coins and just to unwrap/sort/weigh/count what he gets.

my impression is that the guys who know what they're doing turn profits on the runs, even if they 're modest. it pays the bills. at the same time, they well remember 1980 and are cautious, always watching for the market to tell them what to do and how fast. the speculators lose.

al h.

cladking

<< <i>Cladking: 50% of the silver mined every year is CONSUMED (destroyed) in industrial processes. All I'm able to do is refer you to websites where the so-called "experts" speculate as to how much silver is extant, which they say is about 5 billion ounces, with less than a billion of those ounces actually remotely liquid. What sources have you read that say 20 billion ounces are around? I've been looking for some anti-silver websites (sites that think silver is going to be a bust, long-term) but haven't found any yet. I'd love to check some out if you have the URLs. >>



These are old figures from supposed experts updated to include new mining. While your experts may
well be more knowledgeable than my experts these are certainly not silver bashers. As I've stated in
other threads the total mined silver through recorded history (since ~300BC) is close to 25 billion OZ.
It is my contention that much of this is gone but my understanding is the experts don't believe that loss
has even been significant.

More than half of the silver available each year is recycled.

ddink

Cladking: can you give me links to your sources? I'd like to read them, sounds interesting.

cladking

I'm not a silver basher. In fact I'm an old bull. The only time I've seen this in print
was a 1950 Encyclopedia Brittanica and an article in a coin paper some years back.

The Silver Institute is a major promoter of silver and quite probably has a web site.

Will check.

cladking

That was easy. You can probably find it here, will look later.

MoneyLA

keets wrote: "my impression is that the guys who know what they're doing turn profits on the runs, even if they 're modest. it pays the bills"

you are correct and this is ecactly what traders and dealers do. long term investors are exactly that -- people who invest for the long term and will buy and hold.

I think we have entered a break out period where you will win either way -- short term or long term.

we broke out of the overhead resistance and now there is no overhead resistance until we are back in the 30-50 dollar range.

as the cartoon in coin world said many many years ago:

hi you silver!

cheers, alan mendelson

ps I updated my moredeals.com article with the technical break out data and I gave credit to the folks here on the message board and pcgs.com for the graphs. thanks, again, alan

MoneyLA

silver price predicitons for this coming week, starting march 29th. Im looking for a gain of about 5% which would take silver up another 35 to 40 cents an ounce. I have to admit some profit taking now would not surprise me, but Im siding with the upward momentum with no sign of overhead ressitance on the charts until we near $13. cheers, alan mendelson

fishcooker

With that kind of prediction, just wondering if you are at 2:1 today?

MoneyLA

momentum returned to the metals on tuesday... Im sticking with my prediction for the week, cheers, alan mendelson

MoneyLA

just like the battery bunny....

atomic

Ted Butler is the last word in the silver market. We will not see a repeat of the late 1970s. As Twain said, history does not repeat, it echoes.

Atomic

Ted Butler

cladking

Butler's perspective on the market is a very interesting one. It reminds one of the
East coast gold trading firm which nearly caused another '87 style collapse in the
early nineties.

The shorts are in way over their heads and have no choice but to wade in further
to avoid massive and perhaps unsustainable loses. ...and this makes another rea-
son to go long. If and when these shorts break the volatility will all be in one di-
rection and will be extraordinarily dynamic. While there is no garauntee that this
will occur in the near future, progress and the ingenuity of man would seem to dic-
tate that it will happen eventually.