1911-D $5 - Choice BU - Advice needed!

MrEureka

As some of you know, I've been working on a set of $5 Indians in choice/gem BU. I've been offered a slabbed MS-63 at ask, which is 27K. I'm tempted, but 64's seem like a better deal at the bid/ask of 28.5/32.5K. (To put it in perspective, 60's list at only 4600/5000. Additionally, for comparison, 1911-S $5's go from 2K in 63 to 20K in 64.) It seems I should wait for a 64, but then again maybe the 64's are worth a lot more than sheet. it's not clear to me whether 63's are priced too high or 64's are priced too low in the sheet. Or maybe both prices are right? Can anyone make any sense of this? Advice? Thank you.

cosmicdebris

Let's see a 63 at ask or wait for a 64? I say buy the 63 and if a 64 comes along you like better sell the 63.

mgoodm3

My thinking: #1 How quickly do you want to fill the hole? #2 Do you think that a 64 will be available any time soon? #3 Will you be happy with a 63?

I getting the feeling that you really want a 64, if so wait for one to show up. On the other hand, I can't imagine that a 63 would be terribly difficult to get rid of if a suitable 64 showed up.

MrEureka

I can't imagine that a 63 would be terribly difficult to get rid of

Oh, I'm sure I could get rid of it, but how much will I need to lose when I sell it?

jom

I collect $5 Indians as well but not at anything above MS63. There is just too much of a jump in price for some dates.

I would not concentrate on what "64" you might wait for rather than a "63". It is better to concentrate on the coin rather than the grade.

Also, 11-D's are VERY rare in those grades so a true MS64 will probably cost a lot more than that....many of said the coin doesn't exsist in Gem so aquiring a true MS64 will be difficult to find let alone pay for it.

Regardless of the grade, if the 11-D actually has ANY luster in the reverse fields you've already found a very rare bird....

jom

MrEureka

Jom - No doubt that the 11-D is a tough coin, but can you explain why an 11-S goes from 2K in 63 to 20K in 64, but an 11-D only goes up 20%? It's very confusing to me.

darktone

<< <i> It is better to concentrate on the coin rather than the grade. >>

I agree with jom. I would buy the coin that has the look you like. As far as the price difference between the 11-s in 63 and 64 what are the population numbers? mike

roadrunner

The pops say that the 11D is the tougher coin by far and mintages support that too. Just a quick scan of the pricing and pops on these dates indicates to me that the 11d in MS63 is grossly overpriced value-wise. The trends price of 30,000 in MS63 isn't all that far from the 1909-0. If you check the surrounding S mint dates you will see that they are half the price of the 11d but with comparable rarity. Seems nuts to me.

I would say the MS64 is the better value, esp at PCGS where no 65's are listed. Get one of those 10 pieces and be happy to pay the
$30-35K. But even that still seems stiff to me. Man, I can buy a much rarer 67-s quarter in MS64 and pay around $10K.

Maybe one of your fellow high powered dealers is keeping the price of the 11d's in MS63 jacked up. It's price of $28K seems absurd.
$30K seems more in line for the value of the MS64. Some of these dates in NGC grades seem to have reverse rarity where the 63 is twice as rare of the 64's. Those could be resubmissions but they add some risk to your buy. The 11d has no such inversion on either pop report. With 37 pieces in 63 at PCGS that's way too many to be paying $28,000.

Here is a glaring example of pricing that seems stupid. But if 11d's come looking like dog-meat in 63 then maybe that 1 out of 10 pieces with some luster is the catch of the day. But I'd run away fast from that MS63...............vrroooooooooooooooom. But you knew this already and no doubt wanted to highlight the often absurdity of CDN and CW pricing. Buy the coin but not the CDN!

roadrunner

roadrunner

I may have not been clear enough. The price of the MS63 1911d should be in the $10-15K range imo. Why it is at $28K makes no sense. It has a tiny mintage but unfortunately the pops suggest plenty available. Just going by the pops I would say this coin is a potential red herring in MS63 at listed levels. The PCGS MS64 is probably a great value.

IF price guides were all accurate this hobby would be a lot less interesting!!

roadrunner

RYK

Here's another opinion: wait for a nice 62. The Trends pricepoints are 7500/30,000/48,000 for 62, 63, and 64. I would never buy a coin when there is a fourfold rise between the previous grade and the one I am getting. You should be able to get a nice 62 for $7500. Who knows, maybe you can dip it and make it a 63.

Veep

I would not buy a 63 and then sell it to buy a 64 later! The buy/sell spread is too great. With patience, you will not have to lose that spread money. On the other hand, if you find a high-end 63 that looks 64 to you, it may be worth buying instead of a 64.

To get a feel for proper pricing requires hard work. This means documenting actual sales prices for the grades of that coin. My favorite place to start is with the Heritage Auction Archives. Then, search every Coin World ad and website for known dealers of that type of material and over time, you will have created a database of prices. This will also emblazen images of the quality of the various grades into your mind. Only after this hard work would I feel comfortable pulling the trigger on either a 63 or 64.

jom

At Heritage they've sold a grand total of THREE MS63's, none since 2000. One MS64 and one MS65 (NGC). The coin is just flat out rare and probably 2nd in line behind the 09-O. Trying to price these is a pain in the arse.....

It's tough to say this MS63 is over-priced since we haven't SEEN the coin but waiting around for an MS64 is probably futile. Then again, putting a set of these coins is futile anyway, even if you are doing nice AU coins like I am.

jom

MS68

Andy- I would agree with RYK on this one. I would either buy a really high end 62 for 10K or wait for the 64 to show up. The only way I would pay the greysheet ask price for a 63 would be if the coin is a really high end 63+ coin that may upgrade to 64 on the right day. By the way, I think the price range for a 64 would be more realisticly between 35-50 grand depending on quality.

roadrunner

Between PCGS & NGC we have 64 MS 62's, 51 MS63's, and 17 MS64's. Using the old rule of a price doubling with a pop change of 3X, the MS63 price should be 1/2 of the MS64. But the MS62 price should be fairly close to the MS63 price. Including the possible resubmits, 115 pieces in 62/63 grades is more than plentiful. You can't always hand your hat on the pops but without personal experience it's the best way to go.

roadrunner