Some thoughts/predictions on what type/look of coins will be in greater/lesser demand a few years fr
coinguy1
Posts: 13,484 ✭✭✭
I already posted this on the U.S. Coin Forum, but think it applies here, as well. And, in an effort to contribute here....
These thoughts/predictions are my own, might well be wrong and others are free to disagree. In fact, I'd like to hear opposing views on the subject.
Currently, there is much focus on and many discussions about and controversy over, among other things, "Monster" toning, questionable toning (QT), artificial color (AT), "Black and White" Cameo's and Deep/Ultra Cameo's, dipping, conservation and "doctoring". No wonder there is so much activity on this forum!
Here are my predictions, and, for purposes of this discussion, I am focusing on pre-1916 coins, because, as a group, they are more likely than more modern coinage, to be toned to some degree, if they haven't been dipped, etc. :
1) "Monster" rainbow coins will still be in demand, though to a somewhat lesser extent than they are at this moment. Rainbow toned coins are always coveted, whether the market is great or terrible - it's just a matter of to what degree. However, with some of the premiums being paid these days, such pieces are more readily available for sale, as owners/sellers take advantage of the favorable prices. As more of these "monsters" come out of hiding (don't let them scare you or your kids!
) and people worry about whether all of these gorgeous colors are natural or "market acceptable", I think some of the heat in this area of the market will dissipate, at least to some extent.
2) White/color-free coins will be in less demand. I am certainly not opposed to the look of a white/color-free coin form the 19th or 20th century, that looks much like it did, the day it was minted. But, and this is a big but - MANY coins are being dipped, or worse, to the point where there are more and more color-free coins and many of them do not have an original/pristine appearance. A good number of them have stains and/or splotches from the remnants of toning which has been removed and many have unnatural looking, dull, stripped surfaces. Most sophisticated and some unsophisticated buyers can easily tell the difference between the good ones and the not-so-good ones. Others will learn, as they see more of them. And, believe me, there are plenty to see. These "untoned" coins are often beautiful, but many, also have a uniform, monochromatic appearance to them. That is fine for some buyers/collectors, but boring for others.
3) Partly due to #1 and #2 above, attractive, unquestionably original, naturally toned coins, even ones that are not rainbow toned "monsters", will enjoy a noticeably increased demand. The sheer number available is declining virtually every hour of every day, as more and more coins are dipped, conserved, etc. I don't know what the percentages are, but, I know the supply of original toned coins is decreasing markedly. And, once the toning has been removed, it's gone, for good, unless a coin doctor goes to work on it. But, hopefully, such people are busy with other things and/or will have a reduced role in the marketplace - I can dream, can't I?
With increased knowledge and awareness of collectors/buyers, due, in part, to the internet and forums such as this one, I believe that originality will be in and that more buyers/collectors will be trying to acquire toned coins, at a time when the supply has diminished greatly. Increased demand, along with reduced supply, could produce a very "interesting" scenario.
For the record, I appreciate and am happy to handle attractive, toned coins AND untoned ones. But, I prefer to focus on those with an original look/appearance. Sadly, many in each category do not qualify.
These thoughts/predictions are my own, might well be wrong and others are free to disagree. In fact, I'd like to hear opposing views on the subject.
Currently, there is much focus on and many discussions about and controversy over, among other things, "Monster" toning, questionable toning (QT), artificial color (AT), "Black and White" Cameo's and Deep/Ultra Cameo's, dipping, conservation and "doctoring". No wonder there is so much activity on this forum!
Here are my predictions, and, for purposes of this discussion, I am focusing on pre-1916 coins, because, as a group, they are more likely than more modern coinage, to be toned to some degree, if they haven't been dipped, etc. :
1) "Monster" rainbow coins will still be in demand, though to a somewhat lesser extent than they are at this moment. Rainbow toned coins are always coveted, whether the market is great or terrible - it's just a matter of to what degree. However, with some of the premiums being paid these days, such pieces are more readily available for sale, as owners/sellers take advantage of the favorable prices. As more of these "monsters" come out of hiding (don't let them scare you or your kids!
) and people worry about whether all of these gorgeous colors are natural or "market acceptable", I think some of the heat in this area of the market will dissipate, at least to some extent.2) White/color-free coins will be in less demand. I am certainly not opposed to the look of a white/color-free coin form the 19th or 20th century, that looks much like it did, the day it was minted. But, and this is a big but - MANY coins are being dipped, or worse, to the point where there are more and more color-free coins and many of them do not have an original/pristine appearance. A good number of them have stains and/or splotches from the remnants of toning which has been removed and many have unnatural looking, dull, stripped surfaces. Most sophisticated and some unsophisticated buyers can easily tell the difference between the good ones and the not-so-good ones. Others will learn, as they see more of them. And, believe me, there are plenty to see. These "untoned" coins are often beautiful, but many, also have a uniform, monochromatic appearance to them. That is fine for some buyers/collectors, but boring for others.
3) Partly due to #1 and #2 above, attractive, unquestionably original, naturally toned coins, even ones that are not rainbow toned "monsters", will enjoy a noticeably increased demand. The sheer number available is declining virtually every hour of every day, as more and more coins are dipped, conserved, etc. I don't know what the percentages are, but, I know the supply of original toned coins is decreasing markedly. And, once the toning has been removed, it's gone, for good, unless a coin doctor goes to work on it. But, hopefully, such people are busy with other things and/or will have a reduced role in the marketplace - I can dream, can't I?
With increased knowledge and awareness of collectors/buyers, due, in part, to the internet and forums such as this one, I believe that originality will be in and that more buyers/collectors will be trying to acquire toned coins, at a time when the supply has diminished greatly. Increased demand, along with reduced supply, could produce a very "interesting" scenario.
For the record, I appreciate and am happy to handle attractive, toned coins AND untoned ones. But, I prefer to focus on those with an original look/appearance. Sadly, many in each category do not qualify.
0
Comments
It is the lifeless toned or average white coins that will falter.
If a coin "speaks to you" it'll speak to other Collectors. These coins always have had and will continue to have strong, sparkling futures.
peacockcoins
If a coin "speaks to you" it'll speak to other Collectors.
Yeah.
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
I think coin collecting has gone to a level not appreciated by everyone yet. By another level I mean sheer numbers of collectors and investors who are not as sophisticated as the "premier" collectors who know enough to split hairs on varying degrees of color and eye appeal.
I believe the coins will enjoy a lot attention from the new investors and collectors (notice I put investors first this time) who in many cases have a great deal money, may or may not have a great deal of sophistication or knowledge of coins, but are out to compete, collect, or just plain invest.
Take the coin out of coin collecting/investing and apply it to housing, cars or other marketable items and look what has happened historically. (Remember the $25,000 homes from the sixties in California, and how the correction is just around the corner.
Assuming the major grading houses do not commit suicide, and communication i.e. internet, auctions etc, continue anywhere along the slope it has experienced over the last 5 years alone, and there will be not less, but more pressure for any coin of quality - read high grade and slabbed by an acknowledged quality house.
Not to plug anyone, but Van Simmons made and excellent observation about the number of new collectors the mint has brought in just through the state quarters program - somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 million new collectors - well, if only 1% turn out to be serious collectors and investors, look at the pressure on the "defined, limited supply".
Ya ain't seen nothin yet kid!
Dick
<< <i>Remember the $25,000 homes from the sixties in California >>
Sixties? Dick, believe it or not, I JUST bought a nice new, 2000 square foot home in the San Diego area for less than $30,000. Of course I was sleeping/dreaming when I did it.
Thanks for your comments.
I've never understood the need to dip/clean every coin you can get your hands on. The US Forum is full of collectors that boast of their conquests; removing toning from this coin, or cleaning that coin. What's wrong with the way it looks if it's original? Sure toning is more desireable if it's not "ugly". But then, you get back to the beauty issue... who's in charge of deciding beauty?
What you're saying is true, Mark. Trying to find "original" coins is a task. I'm certainly not an expert. So, when I buy a coin I rely on my experience and/or the opinion of the person I'm buying from (especially if that person is a reputable dealer). Fortunately for the hobby, more and more coins are being encapsulated. If those coins have been lucky enough to side step the doctors and rookies trying to learn the trade, and if no one is foolish enough to crack them out to doctor them, there's a chance you can obtain an original coin.
Demanding stone white only coins, for two of my registry sets, from my dealers, was a mistake. If I could do it over I would have definitely asked for nicely toned, original coins.
After completing two BLAST WHITE sets, I noticed how boring these sets were. Each and every coin appearing identicle.
Then I discovered and appreciated coins, both silver and gold, that had nice toning or original characteristics that meant the coin was not "played with". A couple of small copper toning spots on a gold eagle is something I look for and will pay more for, than a spotless brighter than the sun, coin, that has been "conserved".
I think many collectors are becoming aware that the original coins are more desireable and eventually will outperform the unnatural looking creations being made every day.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
the time, you just might need medical attention. I here voices all the time, but mostly there
from Mrs Bear in the other room.
Camelot
with ugly toning. Do you buy the coin and dip the dealer?
Camelot
In the FE/IHC series, GEM original spot free coins have virtually disappeared already, leading me to suspect they will be even more coveted in the near future, no matter what the color. Even common dates have become scarce, I suspect because of both IHC and type collectors.
All of the newly obsolete type coins (you know - the ones with the dead presidents on them) will be extremely popular with collectors, especially the Lincoln cent, which has been discontinued after last year's special centennial design. There will be a scramble to obtain choice to gem coins from the 1975-1998 era - it seems that other than mint sets, these coins just weren't saved in the same quantities as those from earlier times. The Registry craze is still going strong, aided by the low interest rates that have been around since the new millennium, and a stock market that still hasn't recovered to its 2000 level.
While 20th century coinage sells in the greatest numbers, those who can afford 18th and 19th century issues have bid the prices up to many multiples of what they were in 2000. Seated and Barber coins in MS65+ and PR65+ are highly prized; most high grade specimens have disappeared from the marketplace over the past 10 years. And unless you've won the lottery or are a good friend of Bill Gates, don't even think about buying an 18th century coin in Mint State.
The State Quarter program, which was completed in 2008, has created thousands of new serious collectors of other series. Unfortunately for those who invested heavily in the "top pop" coins in those quarters, the populations of ultra-high grade coins has mushroomed as the half billion coins that were purchased in bags and rolls directly from the Mint are broken up. The new regular designs of all denominations are the rage among "newbies" in the hobby.
Just about any pre-World War II coins in the higher Mint State grades has become highly sought-after. Prices have increased steadily since 2002, and any coin with original surfaces, toned or white (or red), sells instantly. Occasionally, fresh material comes on the market, as aging baby boomers liquidate or die. Once a major force in the market, they have surrendered that title to their children, who are now old enough to appreciate the collections their parents so painstakingly assembled. This latest generation of major buyers of coins continues to add to and upgrade these collections. They don't understand why their offspring show as little interest in coins as they did at the same age.
Technological advances make the trading of coins simpler than ever before. Thanks to voice and vision-activated computers, the mouse is becoming as obsolete as a rotary dial telephone. Imaging of coins (and other merchandise) for sale on the internet is aided by digital movie clips that show items from every angle, in detail undreamed of just a few years ago.
Oh yes, PCGS and NGC are still around, and capture the lion's share of the certified coin market. ANACS is hanging on, still being used primarily for authentication purposes, but the others have all gone belly-up, much to the relief of serious collectors, and to the dismay of those that hold their overgraded slabs.
In short, the hobby will prosper. Not without a few bumps in the road, but overall I see exciting times ahead. I hope I live long enough to see how right or wrong I am.
Jim
Mark I agree, probably same for Merc's - toned merc;s are really cool - I try to gravitate towards them - though I'd pick up an original unwashed example any day to:D
Marc
Where can you find nice original toned pieces for comparative price. Try nicely toned IHCs and Lincolns, especially proofs. They tend to get graded BN or RB and so sell at a discount to red blazers (I like those as well), but they as oh so incredibly beautiful.
Finally, I think the area which could simple explode is beautiful foreign coins. These can be wonderful and are available for a song. For example, I bought a 1915 magnificently toned French 50c Walker in NGC 67. These are roughly equal to Barber dimes in size and mintage. This coin cost me all of $50 dollars. What would a common date Barber cost in this grade with this original look? See what I mean.
Illustrative images attached.
<< <i>
Finally, I think the area which could simple explode is beautiful foreign coins. These can be wonderful and are available for a song. For example, I bought a 1915 magnificently toned French 50c Walker in NGC 67. These are roughly equal to Barber dimes in size and mintage. This coin cost me all of $50 dollars. What would a common date Barber cost in this grade with this original look? See what I mean.
. >>
Some of the modern base metal world coins have even worse survival rates than US.
Additionally many of these series were melted when they became obsolete, so finding
them at all can be tough.
...And yes, there are many attractive, historic coins in this category.
<< <i>With increased knowledge and awareness of collectors/buyers, due, in part, to the internet and forums such as this one, I believe that originality will be in ...
For the record, I appreciate and am happy to handle attractive, toned coins AND untoned ones. But, I prefer to focus on those with an original look/appearance. Sadly, many in each category do not qualify. >>
As this part of Mark's message suggests, "originality" is the key. Very few "toned" coins and very few "white" coins are "original". Twenty years ago, people were complaining about the number of artificially toned coins on the market, and that was when the "chemists" used very primitive means. They are much better now, and will be even more so in the future. However, attractive "toned" coins will still be popular, as Mark suggests. On the flip side, they'll also be much better at removing toning. And "white" coins also will be popular. Even the interest in "painted" coins will continue
CoolKarma
MS Buffalo
MS 1951
I **************TOTALLY AM IN AGREEMENT WITH YOU***********
but for me i would just like to add one more point
i think that ALMOST TOTALLY TO TOTALLY DIPPED WHITE **PROOF** COINS FROM PRE 1916
will be in great to greater demand as this is how they were made for collectors-see below_
but the toned ones will be good also as you say
these dipped white or near white coins again i think will be good and get better ********* but********* with the caviat
they will need to be cameoed deep cameoed even better! and they will have to have really great to fantastic eye appeal then that is
okie and deep clean clear mirrors again combined with amazing eye appeal then you got a good coin unfortunately this is not the
case with most!
the totally monocromatic white dipped coins blast white that are ugly spotted stained average eye appeal non cameo hazy cluudy
these coins i agree will be less and less wanted desired and in demand as time goes on!
michael
but i will say this mark if this thread you started here was a coin it would be A TOTAL MONSTER TONED FINEST EYE APPEAL MS68
PROOFLIKE CAMEOED PRE CIVIL HALF DIME!!
i hope this thread starts a new trend on here
michael