Wimmin, Coins, Bo Derek and money
ANACONDA
Posts: 4,692 ✭
Grading wimmin is just like grading coins. Yes, it's subjective to a point....that's why the more votes on a subjective issue, the more
objective (and replicable) the results become.
Some guys think strike is the most important attribute (curves), others like luster (skin quality), others like color...(I love olive skinned Cuban women with dark brown curly hair and blue eyes).
We don't want one person and their biases to grade coins. We want a sample of the educated marketplace assigning grades.
If a drop dead gorgeous woman walks into the room and we all vote, there's gonna be one guy who says, "I don't think she's that
hot." Almost all give her a 9, a few 10s a few lower grades.
If we all vote, the 9 who says she's hot will on average give her a 9.2 (hypothetically). The guy who thinks she isn't hot, gives her a 6
but he only drops the whole average to 88.8. (Maybe he's gay......is vote counts, but only in relationship to the number of evaluators.)
If that one guy is the "finalizer" grading coins when your stunner comes through and he feels like your stunner sucks, like the girl, your
stunner gets a low grade.
If 10 guys are grading your coin, the opinion of that fellow who doesn't like the female stunner or your stunning coin, get ameliorated
by the high grades, and you end up with a much more valuable opinion....
Do you want to do away with grade inflation? To get a 69 or 70, very few graders, under my proposed grading method, can give the coin less than a perfect grade.
Remember that MS69 Lincoln we saw recently? I saw quite a few ticks on the coin (yes, it was a large scan). Do you know how many
guys it took to put that coin into a 69 holder and make it worth more than a Mercedes?
Just one. And maybe that coin is worth two Mercedes. But that's not my point. My point is your confidence grows in grading when you
know the grades are assigned by 10 guys, not one with two....advisors.
Ask yourself.....how confident of the grade would you be if 10 guys graded that coin and it got a 69....and all of them graded it
independently from each other?
Why you would say: Crane it may have had a few ticks, you numbskull, but 10 experienced numismatists said, on average it was one
point shy of perfection. NOW THAT WOULD BE IMPRESSIVE!
Oh, and by the way.......have you noticed that the grading services have never even addressed a different way of grading? I've never
ever seen one article on the evaluation of potential grading methodologies.
Maybe it's because they wouldn't get to grade a coin 20 times.
Someone will come along and start grading coins in a logical way.
It's just a matter of time.
adrian
objective (and replicable) the results become.
Some guys think strike is the most important attribute (curves), others like luster (skin quality), others like color...(I love olive skinned Cuban women with dark brown curly hair and blue eyes).
We don't want one person and their biases to grade coins. We want a sample of the educated marketplace assigning grades.
If a drop dead gorgeous woman walks into the room and we all vote, there's gonna be one guy who says, "I don't think she's that
hot." Almost all give her a 9, a few 10s a few lower grades.
If we all vote, the 9 who says she's hot will on average give her a 9.2 (hypothetically). The guy who thinks she isn't hot, gives her a 6
but he only drops the whole average to 88.8. (Maybe he's gay......is vote counts, but only in relationship to the number of evaluators.)
If that one guy is the "finalizer" grading coins when your stunner comes through and he feels like your stunner sucks, like the girl, your
stunner gets a low grade.
If 10 guys are grading your coin, the opinion of that fellow who doesn't like the female stunner or your stunning coin, get ameliorated
by the high grades, and you end up with a much more valuable opinion....
Do you want to do away with grade inflation? To get a 69 or 70, very few graders, under my proposed grading method, can give the coin less than a perfect grade.
Remember that MS69 Lincoln we saw recently? I saw quite a few ticks on the coin (yes, it was a large scan). Do you know how many
guys it took to put that coin into a 69 holder and make it worth more than a Mercedes?
Just one. And maybe that coin is worth two Mercedes. But that's not my point. My point is your confidence grows in grading when you
know the grades are assigned by 10 guys, not one with two....advisors.
Ask yourself.....how confident of the grade would you be if 10 guys graded that coin and it got a 69....and all of them graded it
independently from each other?
Why you would say: Crane it may have had a few ticks, you numbskull, but 10 experienced numismatists said, on average it was one
point shy of perfection. NOW THAT WOULD BE IMPRESSIVE!
Oh, and by the way.......have you noticed that the grading services have never even addressed a different way of grading? I've never
ever seen one article on the evaluation of potential grading methodologies.
Maybe it's because they wouldn't get to grade a coin 20 times.
Someone will come along and start grading coins in a logical way.
It's just a matter of time.
adrian
0
Comments
For example (using 10 graders):
9 graders grade a coin MS64
1 grader grades the coin AU58
The mode grade is MS64 (mode is just the grade with the greatest number of votes).
The average grade is MS63.4.
Which do you use?
Example 2:
5 graders grade a coin MS64
4 graders grade the coin MS65
1 grader grades the coin AU58
Mode grade is MS64
Mean grade is MS63.8
Which is it? A borderline MS65 coin, or a borderline MS64 coin?
GSAGUY
you line up their opinions from lowest to highest, you throw out the highest and lowest scores, and take the arithmetic mean of the remaining 5. you also report the standard deviation (range) of the scores.
still not perfect, but a heck of a lot better than the system they use now.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
grade of multiple graders?"
Great question.....now we're thinkin'!!
It is my opinion that average would be better. Also, i've given a little thought to doing the average of the remaining grades, after the
lowest and highest have been eliminated.
All three methods, though, are statistically superior to "consensus grading influenced by boss man's comments and directives like "i picked
out 50 stunners for crossover...see what you can do."
(HELLO?????)
I think the most likely thing to happen is for PCGS or NGC or ANACs to do a test service.
Someone else may come along but it is more likely that innovation would be the source of the change.
adrian
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Another interesting question.
Personally, i think the ideal grading company would be owned by a non-dealer. Also, fondling other's coins with no hope of buying them
is less than ideal.
Kinda like being a eunuch at the Playboy Mansion.
collectors increasingly use supposedly unbiassed third party grading as a TOOL in assisting them.
as it stands, it is a generally very useful tool, one that deserves a lot of credit for benefitting the collector these past 17 years, protecting the average hobbyist fromself-serving overgraders.
but it is not a perfect tool, by any means, and this becomes more apparent when you try to cut the coins finely with such a blunt tool as whole numbers.
the next quantum step in the grading evolution will be decimal grading with a confidence range that brackets the number based on the standard deviation of the opinions of the grading panel.
IMO, not an if, but a when. Again, only for the highest end of the coins, where it is required.
If I have $10,000 to spend on a coin that lists for $3000 in MS 64 and $20,000 in MS65, I want more from the grading company than it being in a 64 slab and I want to be able to rely on more than the dealer's assurance, and even my own two eyes, that it's "PQ" and deserves the premium.
If the the asking price for such a coin was $10K, I'd feel a LOT better ponying up the full price if the average grade from 5 independent PCGS graders was 64.4 +/- 0.2, than if it was just MS64.
I think a lot of collectors feel the same way.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
That's what it's all about. Coins aren't just worth 10K....or 20K. And that leaves quite a bit of limbo for the guy who is thinking about buying or selling a coin.
We all like PQ coins and if we could get fair money for PQ coins people would feel more comfortable buying them......that's why so many people guy ugly coins at 10% above bluesheet - they feel like they're getting coins at close to net liquidation value. Little do they know.
I agree with the stated grade as a guide to determining value - no matter how it is figuired out. I do not see a stated grade covering all variables and thus removing the risk of overpaying and/or selling too cheaply/high. Even if the Greysheet grows to 20 pgs for just Morgans and the Bluesheet thus expands to 100pgs they are still just guides (these are the only fairly realistic guides I know of that currently deal with many multiples of MS grade). The final determination of value is decided by a willing buyer and a willing seller.
as an illustration, i would like your opinon as to the value of the coin pictured below. Now I know it is not choice or PQ or even really nice, but it does have SOME value, and it IS difficult to value:
it is scarce. it is in a mid circulated state of preservation (grade) and it has damage. it is the subject of a different thread (and I am still hoping to get some responses there) but I post this coin as an example of how useless and irrelevant the exact numerical grade can be when evaluating a coin, because this piece must trade betweeen a willing buyer and seller, and they must look at price sheets to get a starting point, and then determine what it is worth to them to buy and sell.
Generics are one thing, but "special" coins need a little more attention:
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Here....check out this offering's description on a coin where the greysheet doesn't give values for 61 and 62 but does give values for 60 and 63:
1799 Capped Bust Eagle, ANACS MS61, holder no. 684879. An outstanding strike, with the only area of slight weakness located to the left of Liberty's ear. Quite frankly, the strike in that area appears weaker in the images than it does on the coin when the coin is in hand. Well-centered, no copper spots, and it is seemingly rather conservatively graded; it appears with very few blemishes, especially when one considers the grade. It is possessed of a nice rich yellow gold color. Grey sheet for a mint state 60 is $9,250 and for a mint state 63 it is $19,000. If the spread between 60 and 63 were apportioned equally for each point, a mint state 61 coin would be valued at $12,500, each grade increment being accorded an additional $3,250. [$9,250 (MS60), $12,500 (MS61), $15,750 (MS62), $19,000 (MS63)] These are just thoughts or guidelines - coins are not soy beans no matter how much people want to make them into fungible goods. Quite frankly, I think that this coin's outstanding strike and lack of blemishes makes it worth more than $12,500. We shall see.
link
Baley: A good example of my point. I refrained from saying so since the discussion did not seem in that direction but decimal grading in circulated grades would depend even more on the opinion of the beholders.
There will never be a time IMO where a single number grade will translate into a single dollar amount.
Each coin is an individual. If you had 5 coins all graded properly (whatever that means) with the same grade, I guarantee that many people would not want to pay the same price for each of the 5 coins.
There would be one that would seem superior and one that would seem inferior to individual buyers which would adjust the amount that they would pay for one or more of the coins.
I think there was or still is an attempt to correct this with "market grading" but if you read a lot of these threads i think you would agree that it has been a failure.
The grade is just a relative statement of a coin's preservation and a starting point as to its value.
The final value is up to YOU.
Joe.
Anyone who pays a 333% premium for a 64 because he thinks it's "PQ" is not a collector-he's a fool. Either that, or he thinks it's a "lock" for an upgrade. On second thought, he's a fool in the latter case, also...
In coins, i agree. And the current system we have is way better than when we didn't have grading.
Aren't you glad we still don't drive around in Model Ts and Edsels?
It's time for coin grading to get improved. We'll all, excepting possible the grading services, be better off for it.
adrian
Decimalization would be a step in the wrong direction. It's hard enough getting precise, consistent grades with the current 11 point MS scale. Howerver determined, decimalization of grades would only lead to more potential for upgrades (albeit for smaller profits) and less absolute consistency of grading.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
If you honestly believe the 64 is a good long term value at 3K and the 65 is a good long term value at 20K, then you are NOT a fool for paying a big premium for a PQ64. On the other hand, you may be a fool for believing in the value of the 65, but that's another story...
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
the method of deleting the highest and lowest
graders opinions when doing the final averaging.
This would tend to delete extreme anomalies.
Camelot
I would suspect that that statement is most certainly true if you have one finalizer and you're saying that you're varying the number of graders when all you're really doing is varying the the of advisors the finalizer is rec'g advice from.
The problem is, PCGS' methodology for grading has actually reduced the number of graders to exactly one......the finalizer. The rest of the "graders" are not graders, they're advisors.
adrian
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Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>What is more subjective than grading coins? >>
According to Adrian, grading "wimmin" is at least as subjective.
Jade Rare Coin eBay Listings
barely noticed the weak strike behind the ear of Liberty,but I can see what looks
like a die crack through the E in Liberty and a blob on the rim by the second star
on the left. What are these? Are these the reason it did not grade MS 62,63....?
True in part....who is going to program the computers? Who is going to decide when the computer program that has graded 500,000 needs a slight adjustment which will result in 200,000 coins getting an upgrade?
"Anything that is subjective is prone to discrepencies."
True, true, true. The objective is not to think that any grading methodology can do away with discrepancies. We just want the best system for the collectors that we can have. If the focus is on the collector, the end-user and all end-users to come, the enjoyment of our hobby will be maximized.
"What is more subjective than grading coins?"
All art and matters of taste are equally subjective. What you want is a sampling of educated opinions which mirrors the educated marketplace.
(7 year olds can grade coins too..."that's pretty, that's not"...but that's not what we want.)
adrian
5 at MS-64
3 at MS-65
and 2 "Altered Surfaces"
What would the result be? Mode? Median? Does it matter?
barely noticed the weak strike behind the ear of Liberty,but I can see what looks
like a die crack through the E in Liberty" (yes, die crack.....)
and a blob on the rim by the second star
on the left.
(.....that's a die cud)
"Are these the reason it did not grade MS 62,63....?"
My suspicions are that ANACs wants to improve and then maintain their reputation as conservative graders. When you have that as your goal, some coins will be overly conservatively graded.
They graded it a 61 because it has tiny hits that they think keeps it from a 62.......i guess.........!!!!!!
5 at MS-64
3 at MS-65
and 2 "Altered Surfaces"
What would the result be? Mode? Median? Does it matter? "
I would say that if only two people thought it had altered surfaces and 8 didn't then the educated market would percieve that coin as not having altered surfaces and therefore should be graded as 64.4.
Median grading is the way to go, and yes, it matters. Mode gets it a 64 which doesn't take into account the three 65s.
Whatever caused the two guys to say it has altered surfaces probably keeps 5 guys from giving it a 65 and three guys from giving it a 66.
So then all 10 graders have some concern about the altered surface, but those who are certain are outvoted by those who aren't . I'm not sure that situation gives me more confidence in the grades assigned to PCGS-holdered coins. I'll have to think about it more.