Tracking prices over the long haul
shirohniichan
Posts: 4,992 ✭✭✭
I've been acquiring old Red Books in an attempt to track prices for a selection of coins. The first challenge I have faced is how much grades have changed over the years (i.e. yesterday's "unc" is today's EF-45 to MS-63). Another issue is that Treasury releases have really screwed up pricing for Morgan dollars (and Peace and Seated dollars to an extent) that don't reflect the state of the whole US coin market.
Has anyone else done this? Do you have any recommendations? I'm starting with my oldest Red Book (1958 edition) and planning to chart price changes every 5 years for about 10 coins. I'm going to include a couple of hyped coins (i.e. 1950-D nickel and 1903-O dollar) as well as a number of type coins (e.g. 1875-S 20 cent piece) and key dates (e.g. 1909-S VDB cent, 1916-D Mercury, and 1916 SL quarter).
Has anyone else done this? Do you have any recommendations? I'm starting with my oldest Red Book (1958 edition) and planning to chart price changes every 5 years for about 10 coins. I'm going to include a couple of hyped coins (i.e. 1950-D nickel and 1903-O dollar) as well as a number of type coins (e.g. 1875-S 20 cent piece) and key dates (e.g. 1909-S VDB cent, 1916-D Mercury, and 1916 SL quarter).
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Comments
Neil
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Shiroh, have you considered using Teletrade auction results as a guide? They make it very easy to search by specific coin and grade--I suppose all the way back to their beginning--but I don't know what year they started business. You might also look at old issues of Coin Dealer Newsletter if you wanted to see what dealers were offering; but again, I don't know how far back that publication goes.
Dell
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I think using the Red Book will be the most consistent if I'm starting in the late 1950's. CDN doesn't go back that far, and neither do Teletrade and other records of sales.
My goal isn't pinpoint accuracy-- I'm just looking for trends. Thus, for example, I will arbitrarily equate "UNC" in the old books as "MS-63" in later editions that break down uncirculated grades. This is a compromise since no one can tell for sure how many "UNCs" of the past were AU-50, MS-60, MS-63, or MS-67. I will also track "VF" to see how much or little circulated coin prices follow UNC prices.
I should probably research prices by year, but that would take too much time and cost too much to buy the books. Tracking prices in 5-year increments may mean missing some price bubbles in between, but I guess I could note important ones.
I'm considering the following:
1) 1909-S VDB cent
2) 1851-O trime
3) 1912-S nickel
4) 1950-D nickel
5) 1837 LS half dime
6) 1916-D dime
7) 1875-S 20 cents
8) 1916 SL quarter
9) 1807 capped bust half
10) 1853 A/R half
11) 1936 Walker (proof)
12) 1872-S dollar
13) 1903-O dollar
14) 1921 Peace dollar
15) 1874 trade dollar
16) 1854 T2 gold dollar
17) 1875 eagle
18) 1907 St. Gaudens (high relief)
19) Columbian Expo half
20) 1928 Hawaiian half
This selection has its obvious weaknesses. First, it doesn't include any clad coins, but it's obviously impossible to track their prices from the late 1950's. Second, it doesn't include key early coins, such as the 1793 chain cent and 1796 quarter. The problem with these is that they were rarely traded in MS-63. Third, my list only includes one proof. That's simply because I don't collect proofs. Fourth, my list doesn't include any famous rarities like the 1804 dollar and 1913 Liberty nickel. This is simply because there are too few of them going around and they aren't coins many of us can collect. Fifth, my list includes a few "ringers" that have dropped in price (i.e. 1950-D nickel and 1903-O dollar). I just wanted to include at least one of them to show that coin prices don't inevitably go up.
If you had to include only 20 coins that could be tracked since the late 1950's, which would you include (please note that I won't try to include FBL, FB, FS, or any other recent attributions)?
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1. A GSA CC Morgan (see the effect the GSA had)
2. 1914-D Cent
3. 1937-D 3 Legged (always popular)
21-P/D/S Walkers
GA55.B6g
Bowers, Q. David.
A guide to United States coin price trends;
Racine, Whitman Coin Products, 1990. 414p. ill. 20cm. 4c. Paper.
U.S.--INVESTMENT.
GA55.B6r
Bowers, Q. David.
The Coin Dealer Newsletter, a study in rare coin price performance, 1963-1988.
Wolfeboro, Bowers and Merena Galleries, 1989. 527p. 29cm. 4c. Board.
U.S.--INVESTMENT.
GA30.T4
Texas Coin Exchange.
U.S. coins (numismatic values), price trends, 1951-1958, as per R. S. Yeoman guide (Red Book),
5th through 12th editions. Dallas, Texas Coin Exchange, [1958]. 36p. 23cm. 2c.
U.S.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
2) 1909-S VDB 1c
3) 1914 1c
4) 1955 DDO 1c
5) 1883 NC 5c
6) 1883 5c
7) 1926-S 5c
8) 1950-D 5c
9) 1913-S 10c
10) 1916-D 10c
11) 1916 T1 25c
12) 1932-D 25c
13) 1914 50c
14) 1883-CC $1
15) 1892-CC $1
16) 1921 Peace $1
17) 1928 $1
18) 1908 No Motto $20
19) 1908 $20
20) 1915-S Pan Pac $50
I would expect some to rise consistently, some to rise and fall, and others to remain constant.
P.S. If you need some help compiling data, I have the 75 and 76 Red Book editions.
1958
1965
1966
1975
1981
1989
To make the best use of what I have, maybe I'll go every five years starting in 1960 (unless someone can give me info for 1955).
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