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Whats wrong with this grade distribution?

DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
in U.S. Coin Forum
Normal grade distribution for the proof Kennedy series in Cam/Dcam is 3 to 1 PR68's to PR69's. Pick almost any year, and see the pattern. Interestingly, the 1971 Cam and Dcam distribution is as follows:

In grade 68 69
.........Cam 25% 37%
........Dcam 72% 12%

Why are there so many more PR69 Cams than there should be? Why are there so many more PR68 Dcams than there should be? It seems this year doesn't follow the pattern. Why?image
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor

Comments

  • airplanenutairplanenut Posts: 22,148 ✭✭✭✭✭
    'cus the PCGS god said so!
    JK Coin Photography - eBay Consignments | High Quality Photos | LOW Prices | 20% of Consignment Proceeds Go to Pancreatic Cancer Research
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    Ok,

    So here are the numbers:
    1971 Proof 68/69

    Cam...........54/79
    Dcam.........109/18

    The 1971 is a very expensive coin in PR69 Dcam. Based on normal distribution there should be 36 PR69 Dcams, not 18. It seems using these numbers that a disproportional number of coins made PR69 Cam or PR68 Dcam. Are the graders twice as hard on the money coin as they are all the others, or is there a better explanation?
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • RussRuss Posts: 48,514 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The 1971 is a very expensive coin in PR69 Dcam. >>



    Ain't that the truth. The last one that actually came up for sale went for $3627.00. Frankly, I didn't think it looked as good as my 68DCAM.

    Russ, NCNE
    eBay consignment sales | | Collectibles from Resco CCC
  • PlacidPlacid Posts: 11,299 ✭✭✭
    Because I have 10 of them raw in my safe image
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    OK, so maybe because it's Kennedy I'm a conspiracy theorist, but it sure looks like some of the PR69 Dcam
    71's have been pushed into the PR69 Cam or PR68Dcam grades. Are the graders either consciously or subconsciously undergrading some of these guys?
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Hey everybody, Russ has all the nice Kennedy Half Dollars and he wont share.
    No fair Russ, no fair.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • FlyTooHighFlyTooHigh Posts: 190 ✭
    Aligning with Bear, Russ's hoard is starting to influence the statistical distribution of proof Kennedys.image
    USAF VET. 1964 -1968
    Proud of America!

    I Have NO PCGS Registry Sets!
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    Sunnywood said this in an earlier post -

    I also wonder about the politics of "making" high-grade coins. I have virtually NEVER scored an upgrade or a supergrade on even the most PQ submissions, while I have been offered newly-made high-grade coins for sale by insiders that were blatantly overgraded by at least one, and more likely two points. I will not name names, because grading is subjective, and my opinion is only that -- an opinion. But I found the experience sufficiently disturbing as to wonder whether the whole game is rigged, and whether I should get out. I got out of the stock market years ago because I decided that game was rigged too. I was well ahead of my time in coming to that conclusion, and I stand by it.

    I decided to look at my series and see if there was any empirical data. I'm curious whether the pop data is coincidental, or if PCGS is really hesitant to make these low-pop coins?
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • mnmcoinmnmcoin Posts: 2,165 ✭
    My guess on the 71 Kennedy is that someone is only going to submit a 68 if it is a good shot at DCAM, and someone is only going to submit a cam if it is a solid candidate for 69. Pair that with somewhat of a tier grading effect and I think you have your answer.

    mo <><
    "Repent, for the kindom of heaven is at hand."
    ** I would take a shack on the Rock over a castle in the sand !! **
    Don't take life so seriously...nobody gets out alive.

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  • Conder101Conder101 Posts: 10,536 ✭
    Possibly because since it was the first year for using the harder coppernickel clad alloy? This was the first time the mint was striking the clads in this size and the presses just just weren't set right to be able to produce MS-69 coins. When you start a new coin, size, alloy or any combination thereof, it takes awhile to get all of the adjustments to the machinery, dies, design etc right.
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,636 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A significant percentage of dies will not turn out any very high grade
    coins. And a lot of the high grade coins will come from a relatively few
    dies. The total number of proof dies is not great so don't rule out mere
    chance as a contributor to this.
    Tempus fugit.
  • BlueColeBlueCole Posts: 365 ✭
    IFor some reason, i doubt there is much "mere chance" when you're talking about the US Mint and PCGS.
    Nothing to back it up, of course, but it's just a feeling.

    B.
    A Fine is a tax for doing wrong.
    A Tax is a fine for doing good.
  • TheNumishTheNumish Posts: 1,628 ✭✭
    Last week I looked through about 75 1971 proof sets and didn't find one Kennedy worth grading. Seems like all the coins that had deep cameo only had it on one side. Also most of the coins wouldn't have graded 69. Can't answer why the graded population ratio is skewed.
  • RussRuss Posts: 48,514 ✭✭✭
    TheNumish,

    My experience with the 1971 mirrors yours. I can't speak for Don, but I'm pretty sure he's encountered the same thing. The 1971 Kennedy is a very, very tough coin. My gut feeling is that the coin in a true and solid 68DCAM is substantially undervalued right now.

    Russ, NCNE
    eBay consignment sales | | Collectibles from Resco CCC
  • dakradakra Posts: 513 ✭
    Russ,
    How many JFK's do you have? I especially like your Ancient Hair

    How soon?

    -David
  • RussRuss Posts: 48,514 ✭✭✭
    David,

    Most of my Accented Hairs are either just heading in for grading, or are still here raw, so it'll be a little while before I get that section of the site done. I have 14 so far, but I needed to wait on submitting these coins until I had the hazing problem solved at PCGS. Looks like that's fixed, so I'll be having several submissions going in. Two submissions just went in, and more to follow.

    As for total Kennedy proofs (slabbed) I currently have 188, but that number changes frequently.

    Russ, NCNE
    eBay consignment sales | | Collectibles from Resco CCC
  • RLinnRLinn Posts: 596 ✭


    << <i>it'll be a little while before I get that section of the site done. >>

    Russ, are you building the site yourself? I like the layout.
    Buy the coin...but be sure to pay for it.
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    Russ,

    I believe there are some dcams lurking in cam holders. I think the distribution just doesn't match the probable pop. Conder, I'd believe you were on to something if the pop of PR69 Cam wasn't so elevated. I think cladking probably has it partially right. I believe there probably weren't but one or two die sets that produced dcam coins, and I believe one of them had an unfortunate flaw that left a mark on the obv that looks like a tiny scratch (best I can tell, there were 17 known DMRs). I think part of the problem though is the hesitance or the graders (consciously or not) to grade PQ 71's PR69 Dcam. Based on the "odd" distribution, I believe the PR68 Dcam and PR69 Cam coins in PCGS holders are likely places to find potential undergrades. There seems to be a protective halo around the money grade. They sure didn't have that problem in 77 huh. IMHO

    Ratios
    _________68__69______
    64 Cam.......3.......1
    64 Dcam......3......1
    68 Cam.......3.......2
    68 Dcam......3......1
    69 Cam........3......2
    69 Dcam......3......1
    70 Cam........3......1
    70 Dcam.......3......1
    71 Cam.........1......2
    71 Dcam........6......1

    72 Dcam.........2......3

    From that point on through the 70's the PR69 Dcams outnumber the PR68 Dcams. 1977, one of the years PCGS considered weighting in the registry has a ratio of 8 to one PR69 Dcams to PR68 Dcams. ?????
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Russ - I read that Dacra likes your ancient hair. Just how old are you?
    For ancient hair, you have got to be at least100 years old. Bearimage
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    Bear, I'm glad you dropped by furry buddy. How long have you owned the PR69 Dcam 1971 in your collection? Was it made while PCGS was making PR70's or is it newer than that?


    BTW - I'm glad you know the poets.image
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Don - My 1971 PR-69DC , was purchased from the Tom Allen Collection now at #51 place
    in the Registry.
    I was able to pick some 10 coins I needed for upgrades . The purchase was made in May-02 .
    I really dont know when the coin was made, sorry. Bear
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage

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