ANACONDA ASKS WHAT WILL THE UPCOMING WAR TO FOR RARE COINS PRICES?

ANACONDA

My brother who is a cop, (cop of the year for Maryland, 2001, incidentally) is also in the reserves. And he is being called to active duty. He couldn't tell us where he is going but I think we all know, generally speaking.

So, war with Iraq seems to be a foregone conclusion (and if your neighbor, the convicted felon, was getting an assault rifle with a scope on it to take you out, what would you do?). How serious will it get? How long will it last? And...what I want to know.....

how will it affect rare coin prices (U.S. certified rare coins graded by PCGS and NGC, MS and PR 65 and better) under our current situation (low interest rates, entering or in a recession, low but rising unemployment, a weak but fairly corrected stock market)?

Should I sell, buy more or hold (or keep trading)?

adrian

supercoin

Hmm... yes, I guess snakes are cold-blooded.

Toningintheblood

Hey Adrian,

Saturday night, chilling out, what are you listening to right now on your stereo? Country Joe and the Fish? A little Hendrix? Dale

ANACONDA

First, Janis Joplin. Then, Green Day. Followed by Boston Their first album). Then Led Zepplin. A little Johnny Winter. Lastly some Bill Monroe. Good unwind music.

Dale - check for the Columbian goes out on Monday. Hey, I'm not gonna get you in trouble for letting people know you know me, am I?

adrian

Bear

Adrian - The war will come, the stock market is still overpriced and will drop. We will have the double dip recession, unemployment will rise and coins will seem to hold values , but will be increasingly difficult to sell in the forseeable future.

It is my opinion, that quality coins, purchased at a realistic level ,will, over the next several years , do rather well. Overpriced coins with increasing high grades being made will drop significantly in price.

as a former soldier, I fear that the immediate future for military and terrorist activity will move into high gear for a rather prolonged period. Raw materials and oil will increase in price , inflation will begin to rise and the Fed will start to increase rate after January-2003. Their is also the possibility of a special taxbeing imposed to cover part of the deficit caused by the war. Not a pretty picture and perhaps only a nightmare caused be a piece of undigested cheese , according to Mr Scrooge. One thing that I am sure of is this, that this Nation , by Gods good grace, shall not only endure, it shall prevail. Bear

presleyh

on a little more serious note, does anyone know why we are going to war with iraq? i say to hell with em over there, and dont waste any more young american lives. ----- if it goes like the afganie war most americans will forget we are over there, like they have now. gas will go up a little, interest rates will stay the same and the coin market wont know the difference.

cacheman

So Adrian, what's up with your obvious need to place your handle in all of your post titles? It may just be me but it reminds me of all the billboard clutter you see along our once beautiful highway system....if you catch my meaning. CM

Bear

Once the fighting begins it will develope a life of its own. Often the outcome is far different from the well laid plans of military planners. Poisen gas and biological weapons, have the potential for massive damage far beyond the theatre of operations. I do not believe this will be a repeat of Desert Storm. Rather this combat will be unique and terrible in its scope and intensity, whether planned or unplanned. It would be prudent for all members of this Forum to plan ahead as you would for a natural disaster of nature. Food, water, batteries, flashlights, radios , firearms and maintain topped off gas tanks. If you are on maintenance medications, build up an additional supply, in the event your normal soure of supply is disrupted. Have you doctor write you additional presriptions for all maint. prescriptions and carry them on your person.

ANACONDA

Cachman - I put my name in the posts because the search function doesn't search for terms in the posts. Sometimes I post something (I'm new to the group but have posted a few times) people ask me intelligent questions and I want to answer them. It makes it easier for me to find the posts that I have initiated and therefore to answer irrelevant and stupid questions or flame those that say stupid things that are not on the topic. For example, this post was about how the upcoming war that may take my very brother's life, will affect us, how long it will last and how it will affect my life's savings that my wife has entrusted to me and that my three children count on to feed them if things go to hell in a handbasket. I want answers from intelligent people who take the time to write on the topic. Plus, I think when you put Anaconda in the string, it might mean something to some people, like, hey it's adrian making a post, lets go find out what stupid thing he has to say now...

Or, tell me if this sounds more plausible: I am an egomaniac who simply can't get enough of myself. I over value my opinions, hold them with white knuckles and base them on very little information. I often chant my name in front of my bathroom mirror, that's why I can't seem to make much of myself........

Or you make up one. Be creative. Entertain us.. Please????

Or, give us your opinion on the question. Convince me of your position. We're waiting........

adrian

ANACONDA

Supercoin -- I love my brother very much. I just didn't think it would be appropriate for me to articulate my love for him and my deep concern for him in the PCGS Coin Forum. I appologize if I came across in a cold manner. I am not cold-blooded. We are all concerned about our loved ones who are brave enough to protect the freedoms we take for granted. Did you know that I give a paid day of vacation for every person on my staff who is a veteran - on veteran's day? Of course you don't. Well, I do. Honest!

Placid

I don't like the first strike approach. It tends to not make allies very comfortable.

I think the department of defense should be for defense and not attack.
With the way some with power are now thinking the U.S. should have attacked the soviet union in the 60's-70's as they posed a far more potential threat to the U.S. than Iraq currently does.

So far since the gulf war Iraq has done nothing to deserve a attack in my opinion that will most likley leave many of our military and their civilians dead or mamed for life.

I am too old to serve in the military now but served for seven years. I pray that the U.S. goverment uses caution with their power. War is not fun or glamorous and should only be used as a last resort for defense of the U.S. and it's allies not as a way to distract attention away from domestic issues for political gain.

supercoin

Anaconda, yeah, sure you do -- next you'll be claiming you give them Memorial Day too!*





* for the humor-impaired.

Android

Bear! It's so unlike you to be so pessimistic and alarmist! You're making me scared!

Andy

ANACONDA

Supercoin - I would like you to call Hector Salinas (been with me 4 years) or Jim Browning, on of my attorneys who has been practicing law for over 19 years. Call them at 1-800-444-8810 and ask them whether or not they got a paid day off for veterans day. They both served our country and I did more than just say I appreciated them.

I'm not perfect but I am not known to be a liar. You wouldn't know that because you don't know me...yet.

adrian

ARCO

I would hope that we wouldn't kill a single Iraqi or allow a single american causualty. GOD why can't we all just get along??

Seems with the falling stock market that discretionary funds may dry up a bit for big ticket items (like rare coins). On the other hand people are desperate for other avenues to invest in(rare coins and collectables).

I was in Borders books today and noticed many of the financial periodicals were touting alternative investments like real estate, bonds, and you guessed it Collectables.

Rare coins? Who can say with certainty. Collector coins $100-$1,000 will be popular till the end of mankind.

Hey, how about putting your amazing coin finding ability into a super nice original VF or XF 1896-O Barber half yah, and throw in a 1899-O while your at it.

Tyler

cacheman

Adrian, there is a nice little "subscribe to this thread" box for you to check at the bottom of your initial post or reply text entry box. Once checked, you can click on the "Today" button on the top right of your screen and this will take you to your page which lists all the threads you have subscribed or responded to. Those can then be be clicked to your hearts content to see if there are any pressing business matters to taken care of. So, you get immediate access and we don't get spammed.

Oh, you'll also be hard pressed to keep a unilateral thought going for long on this forum...our attention span just doesn't allow it.

ANACONDA

I just now saw the winkie.

Humor impaired,

adrian!

Bear

I am scared, lately my fur is standing up along the ridge of my back. What worries me the most is how complacent Americans have been , about the potential of terrible weapons in the hands of tyrants and religious fanatics who are willing to die for their cause. There should be a great national debate before we back into something so terrible. We should all know just what the hell we a getting in to ,so we are not surprised on some cold dark winter morning. (edited for spelling)

ANACONDA

OK, Cachman. I think I've seen that button but not always! Could it appear when I use one computer but not another? Like right now, I don't see it.

So, what are your opinions on the topic - war's affect on coins? You seem pretty smart, c'mon, what do you think?

adrian

Fairlaneman

Bear:

Not to be a smart azz but I always thought War stimulated the economy, un-emplotment goes down and generally everything is fine ( to our dismay ) untill the War is over then a Recession sets in. Anyway thats how it worked with Viet Nam. Opps not a War there just a Military Police Action. (to our Dismay)

ANACONDA:

Commendable of giving a Paid Holiday for your Veteran Employees. Most small business owners just blow it off as they worry about the High and Mighty dollar more than the feelings of a Employee that has had to be in one of the War Hell Holes.

Bear

Winged liberty man - Viet nam cause a terrible roaring inflation , as we tried to have both guns and butter. Inflation eats away at our indevidual wealth and devastates those who are retired and living on fixed incomes. The only ones who would benefit would tend to be people who have large existing debt ,such as currant home owners, farmers and corporations who can pay back debt with cheapened dollars. On the other hand if you need a loan , or intend to buy a home, or could use a few groceries, you would be in big trouble.

ANACONDA

Bear, I too am an arm chair student of economics and human history. We here in the US have had it great for so long. Many countrys have experienced devestation and sometimes I fear that our country is not immune to these horrible possibilities.

I'm concerned about the world debt level and the fact that even with Japanese-style low interest rates, our country is still unable to get the economy going. But, maybe an economic breather is nothing to worry about.

But, our honorable President is probably aware of at least two things - no president gets elected when the economy has turned sour during his watch, and war stimulates, in an artificial way, the economy. Borrowing money, though to finance a war (that we may need) could move things closer to some sort of instability. We humans always feel like we have things under control until someone gets an eye poked out and then it's "hey, don't look at me!"

I make no predictions but the current scenario does have a few potential hot spots, like debt as large as it always has been and recession in the midst of 40 year low interest rates. What does one do to stimulate the economy other than give money away and lower interest rates? Print more money? Inflation is always good for rare coins. Actually, rare cois just do better than many other investments during inflationary times.

adrian
anaconda.rare.coins (on eBay)

FlyTooHigh

<< <i>Not to be a smart azz but I always thought War stimulated the economy, un-emplotment goes down and generally everything is fine ( to our dismay ) untill the War is over then a Recession sets in. Anyway thats how it worked with Viet Nam. Opps not a War there just a Military Police Action. (to our Dismay) >>



Hey Fairlanin Man: Were you in Viet Nam? Boy? Speak up Man! I wasn't thinking like that (you) back then. Me and a bunch of us were young and trying to figure out what the h**l we were doing there. Let alone why people were trying to kill us. I left a helicopter on the ground after 300+ sorties (we got shot down). We were not thinkng of coins at that time. We were thinking of getting the hell out of there! I have a Purple Heart and several other commendations. I wouldn't part with them for all the PCGS coins on the planet. Even the ones Anaconda has.....

Bear

Adrian - when you consider the potential for damage in a region of the world that contains 60% of the worlds known oil supply, what would happen if someone, for spite , took that source off line thru nuclear or biological contamination. Would other nations take advantage of the termoil to settle scores such as Pakistan and India. How about China and Taiwan while the American fleet is preoccupied. Now we add in the tinder box of the middle east and we have a neet cauldron of bubbling brew.All we need are some cackling witches , some bats wings and eye of newt and off we go.

FlyTooHigh

<< <i>All we need are some cackling witches , some bats wings and eye of newt and off we go. >>



Hey Bear... Where are we going? Explain.......!

truthteller

Adrian,
After the anouncement by the Russian government, that it will be doing billions of business in the near future, I believe the US will not go to war as was expected. With NO nation backing the U.S., and no moral high ground, a conflict with Iraq will serve no purpose other that to kill US service men and women as well as Iraqis and possibly much of Israel. Bush is getting BAD intelligence from his old party line cabinet, many of whom, such as Cheney and Rumsfeld, will be dead in five to ten years. If the U.S. should indeed invade Iraq, it will be a drawn out, bloody conflict, which will send the U.S. economy into a tailspin. With that said, I feel for your brother who is serving his nation. Rare coins will not go up in value, and one may see 'dumping' of coins as an investment. Gold will go up, stocks and consumer confidence will be weak. If there is a conflict, afterwards, we will see a recession, as with after many other military escapades in the past. My 2C

TRUTH

supercoin

Anaconda, wait, I thought your "veterans get Veteran's Day off" post was a joke (i.e. paid holidays), the smiley was for those who didn't get the little interchange! But it turns out we didn't get our own interchange. Which is also funny.

And apparently gov't workers get better treatment than Anacondites.

Bear

Fly too High - Probably grab one of the witches magic brooms and fly of with Tinkerbell and Peter Pan to Never Never Land. Bear

FlyTooHigh

Hey Bear:

If I could, I would hope to end up in Thousand Oaks, Ca where I was from 1980 - 1993!

Tony

cacheman

Adrian, a war or the economy isn't going to make much difference to 98% of the coin collectors in America or this forum. MS65 collecting and below as well as modern hoarding are all that is occuring for the most part. When the deep pockets start investing in coins they will be going for the spendy coins (which will just get spendier) which comprise a small percentage of the total coin population. Obviously, dealers that are well known and connected, and deal only in "rare" coins, will make out like bandits (hmmmm). It seems apparent that it is the collectable dealers that are now in the drivers seat replacing the dot coms. Same story, different money makers.

As for a war? Well, I can't say I am responsible for voting someone into office that feels he must do what his Daddy couldn't. I knew from the start that if "W" couldn't run a small oil company, a baseball team, or a State, how the hell could he run a Country. His ego will push an unsupported strike of Iraq and there isn't a damn thing any of us can do about it. Coin collecting/speculation seems pretty small potatoes and trivial in comparison wouldn't you think?

Bear

Fly too High - Thousand Oaks is a nice place, you could do worse. When you get there, take all of your money and buy chocolate turtles, M&Ms and Jelly Beans. If the worst happens ,at least you will have something pleasant to do. PS add a case of wine to the list. It will help the candy go down better.

Blackhawk

If we go to war, I believe that any solid assets such as coins or bullion will greatly appreciate. We can't afford the cost of the military hardware that a long war would eat up without causing a long term economic problem in the US. How can we spend billions on war materials without driving up the national debt. Taxes will have to be raised to pay down the debt, but as long as it's on the next presidents watch, I guess it's OK with the current administration. This follows the "Ronald Reagan" school of federal economic prosperity.

FlyTooHigh

<< <i>His ego will push an unsupported strike of Iraq and there isn't a damn thing any of us can do about it. Coin collecting/speculation seems pretty small potatoes and trivial in comparison wouldn't you think? >>



Scott, you are right. Bottom line is that we need to get rid of the people that are after us. His Dad missed the boat, Regan missed on Lybia, etc, etc,.....................

This is a new war, not like the one I was in.

Keep your head down.

Tony

FlyTooHigh

Hey Bear:

Thousand Oaks is a nice place!

Boy, you got that right. When I show up, I'll buy you and the misses dinner!

Tony

supercoin

I've never understood the "bad times, rare coins go up in value" philosophy, especially in expensive coins. Has that really consistently played out that way historically?

I can see the logic of going to gold or something just for preservation of capital, but not into high-premium coins. It seems to me if you want to find a buyer for a high-premium coin, you would want good times where people feel good about spending discretionary money.

Bear

Where is a Harry Truman when you need him? I would be equally happy with Big John K or Eisenhower. At least these guys knew what the hell war was about. Im even ready for Bob Dole. Before he carried a pencil in his crippled hand, the guy carried a rifle in combat and knew how to use it. Bear

cacheman

Tony, I agree with you, however, we're in a different world now and the US cannot afford to make arbitrary non-allied supported decisions without exacerbating the situation. Not only would we have the middle east pissed at us, but most of the rest of the world as well. A time might come when we ask for help from these guys while defending our homeland and they just may not show for the party.

Bear

Tony - You got a deal for dinner. I will be the guy with my old reliable Army Colt 45 under my coat. Bear

coynclecter

I afraid its par for the course. Second year of a Republican president usually starts a recession. The rich get richer and there's less money for the average Joe. Now the best way out of any recession is a war so don't be too suprised. Particularly since the multinational corporations have so much vested in the middle east and daddy Bush is still pi$$ed he didn't finish what he started. All adds up to some kind of action. Fortunately we have even most sophisticated stuff than we did the last time. It will be very onesided.



<< <i>A time might come when we ask for help from these guys while defending our homeland and they just may not show for the party. >>



When did we ever get any help before. Th UN has always been a joke, same with NATO. We couldn't count on anyone next time either, except maybe the brits and the canadians.

Placid

That's good because last time we were unable to kill Sadam. Maybe this time we have something that can locate him and fly into his hiding spot.
We still have no idea where Osama is or if he is alive or dead.

Bear

Coyn - As usual , it will be our military doing the fighting and the dying and I believe Brits and canadians will stand with us. However, we will still need foreign bases and logistical support and we will learn just how friendly our so called friends are. What concerns me is not so much convincing the world, rather , it is fully convincing Americans, who will be sending our sons and daughters in harms way. Of course the French will send a case of wine with their regrets at not being able to attend the party.

braddick

The Canadians will never tell you, but most of them despise us. We import all of our TV sitcoms into their living rooms even though most of it is filmed in Toranto.

War. What is it good for? Absolutely nothin!

Placid

Actually the french sent a fair amout of troops to afghanistan as well as germany and italy.
You just almost never hear about it on the news in the U.S. I guess each country's news tends to focus on their own.

cladking

War is always ghastly. War is always destructive. That's what it's good for. This
war would be just as unpredictable as all which have come before. Certainly there's
plenty of blame to spread around for the state of the economy and the world, but the
sitting president deserves almost none of it. All of these problems existed long before
he took office.

Before the advent of modern weapons, war often would heat up an economy. Send off
the young men to fight, feverishly borrow money to ramp up production for the tools of
war and it was a certainty that unemployment would drop and tax collections would im-
prove. In the modern age, relatively few go to war. The cost of the weapons is great,
and the destruction is even greater. If the war requires great resources to oust saddam,
then we're looking at inflation not an economic boom.

If Iraq has nukes or biological weapons they will use them on us. Hence it's logical to as-
sume that they do not yet have such weapons. A new war probably would not look like
the Gulf War. There would be no ability to cut off the supply lines and starve them out.
But, Iraq is much weaker, smaller, and demoralized than it was a decade ago. It seems
unlikely many would fight to the death when the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

The classical coin market would do well in an inflationary enviroment. This market is poised
for some explosive gains in a few years anyway. This market would probably do best in
the long run if these gains are not too dramatic now. The modern coin market would do
best with a little inflation but extreme inflation might actually harm it. The modern market
will chug right along otherwise. Even a recession would do it relatively little harm.

RGL

As I write this, my son -- an intelligence officer in the Marines -- is in the middle of two months of large-scale war games in the southern California desert ... you can pretty much figure out why. The biggest mistake of the Gulf War was not to go on into Baghdad and take out Saddam Hussein. He is a ruthless dictator and supporter of terrorists. I still find it hard to believe we have not been able to secretly go in and assassinate him or foment insurrection among the people to have him taken out. Sorry if I sound cold, but anyone who preaches hatred of America and played even the smallest of roles in Sept. 11 should be eliminated for the good of mankind.

barney

Well, might as well throw my 2 euros in...

I have been in Europe for the last 2 months or so and have stayed in an open-bay hostel in Budapest, Hungary since 5 July. I am also a 70% disabled vet (bipolar
disorder-go ahead and give me crap, Viet vets, I have heard it all before but had a wonderful therapist who is 30% PTSD from 'Nam and a great guy) who
served in the Navy from 1981-85 (3 years, 9 months, 20 days before receiving an Honorable Discharge RE-4 Physical/Mental Conditions).

OK, enough said about me.

Needless to say, I have heard a lot of anti-American stuff here. I have also been disgusted with much of the US foreign policy. The general apathy of the
upper-class white American kids who come here is irritating. Yes, as someone stated, the US power-brokers are the same far-right hawks that gave
us McCarthyism, 'Nam, and Bushes I and II. However, I am an American. And if we had not become so militarily powerful, communism and the iron
curtain would probably still be up and I would not have been able to visit countries like Hungary and Slovenia, which survived both communism and fascism.

So now what to do about Iraq and life in post 9-11 America?

First, we need to learn more about the rest of the world. People in MAINLAND Europe have to speak a myriad of languages (except for the obnoxious English bloats
whom I commonly see here). They HAVE to know about other cultures. The self-centered attitude has to be tempered by world realities. As long as we
have this me-first attitude "in the interest of the United States," we will be prone to the same Iraqi-type crap that we are facing now-and didn't we just
support them against Iran during the Reagan era (check today's headlines)?

As far as coins go, yeah, I just bought a few nice DMPL and Rainbow "CC" Morgans to hold onto for a few years. Maybe they'll go up-down...who knows?
Enlightening conversation, such as this thread, is necessary to combat the one-sided view that US people seem to be getting these days.

Take care and God bless,
Barney Plisko
San Diego CA

dddangerousdan

If we had taken out sadam 10 years ago we would not be in the situation we are in now. Most of us that were in the military ( that I know ) thought it was a mistake. We are about to pay the price now. Nomatter how you look at it the war on terrisom will be a lomg one. The only thing for sure is that it WILL get WORSE before it gets any better. The longer we wait the more prepared the enemy will be. we must go now and go hard. I pray that our technology will allow us to have minimal casualitys. Being retired I am still able to be recalled to service for another 5 years. I will go if called, but I hope things dont get so bad they need a bunch of out of shape old guys. As far as coins go I wont be doing much except holding the ones I have. The prices should remain steady though.


DAN

presleyh

if 60 year old politicians had to go fight first, there would be a lot fewer wars. the sights and sounds of the evening news announcing the daily and weekly number of dead american soldiers in viet nam are still fresh in my memory after 25 or 30 years. i was 18 in 1970 and by the grace of god wasnt drafted. but my 20 year old cousin came back after 2 weeks in viet nam with no left leg. other freinds didnt come back at all. some came back only to die young from drinking and drugs to forget what they saw. they go from playing the clarinet in high school band to being ripped apart by red hot fragments from artillery shells. FOR WHAT? if we are under attack every able bodied american should rise up and fight to the death. but going into iraq to secure a future oil supply? i just dont see it.

dpoole

Good topic! There's a related one going on the Open Forum, though without the coin-prices speculation.