What's going on?

fathom

Shops say retail silver has slowed yet spot prices are still creeping upwards.

I thought once retail and momentum slowed prices would slide. What gives?

Bayard1908

Perhaps you haven't heard, new all time high by the Fourth of July, lol.

softparade

Retail is only a spoke in da wheel.

Artist

@fathom said:
Shops say retail silver has slowed yet spot prices are still creeping upwards.

I thought once retail and momentum slowed prices would slide. What gives?

I am by no means an expert, and do not have the experience most here do, but for the last month I have suddenly gotten very interested in metals and have been learning all I can.

According to my observations, ever since the crash of 1/30, the general trend has been for the US paper market to push metals prices lower by day, and then for physical prices in China to bring prices higher by night. Then Sunday night, China went dark for 8 days of lunar new year. It was suggested that US manipulator's might use this window to do their thing unchecked but so far prices have held all week, and actually spiked today with the arrival of a lackluster GDP report. Now next week, not only does China reopen, but on 2/27 there is also a Comex deadline for paper silver contracts (currently ~350m ounces) to be reconciled against their physical supply (currently only ~88m ounces), and both of these things may logically exert upwards pressure on metals. Then again, manipulators seem to like making the metals market do the opposite of what everyone expects, which may also be driving prices today in advance of some imminent sell-off event.

fathom

Curiouser and curiouser.

jmski52

According to my observations, ever since the crash of 1/30, the general trend has been for the US paper market to push metals prices lower by day, and then for physical prices in China to bring prices higher by night. Then Sunday night, China went dark for 8 days of lunar new year. It was suggested that US manipulator's might use this window to do their thing unchecked but so far prices have held all week, and actually spiked today with the arrival of a lackluster GDP report. Now next week, not only does China reopen, but on 2/27 there is also a Comex deadline for paper silver contracts (currently ~350m ounces) to be reconciled against their physical supply (currently only ~88m ounces), and both of these things may logically exert upwards pressure on metals. Then again, manipulators seem to like making the metals market do the opposite of what everyone expects, which may also be driving prices today in advance of some imminent sell-off event.

I think that you have a pretty good grasp of the current situation. To that, I might add that the fundamentals are positive for gold and silver albeit for different reasons, but both have money printing and devaluation of the dollar as a common factor.

Silver is facing a 6 year deficit of supply while gold is being accumulated by central banks and other financial entities.

Artist

@fathom said:
Curiouser and curiouser.

Late last night all eyes were on Hong Kong who had been closed for 3 days for lunar year, as a bellwether for what Shanghai might do when it reopens on the 24th. But then prices just chopped sideways for the entire session. Then suddenly the minute London opened, prices spiked... my guess is someone leaked the GDP report, because nothing much changed when it dropped here at 8:30a EST?

I think today's rally was further fuelled by the SCOTUS Tariff decision. I thought the effectiveness of tariffs was pretty much a settled debate prior to Trump, yet so far the economy has been resilient. Still, if I were an economist, I would be looking for early signs of the back of the train hitting the front of the train. This month we saw headlines about studies that have concluded Trump's tariffs effectively being paid by American consumers. This week we got mixed signals from the Fed on which direction they might move. Today we got a lower than expected GDP report. And now SCOTUS has destabilized the foundation upon which current policy is built. These anxieties put more pressure on already pressured metals.

Next week will be interesting. 2/27 for Comex could be a techtonic shift or it could be a nothing burger or something in between. The return of Shanghai on 2/24 seems more likely to exert upward pressure on the market, given the ~10% spread between physical and paper silver that has existed all month. And of course between now and then, time remains on the clock for US banks to attempt more shenanigans.

When I started paying attention to this arena a month ago, the jury was out on whether the $121 silver followed by sub-$70 meant the bull ride was over? Maybe. I don't claim to know. But I am taking note of how for second week in a row, gold closed has for the weekend less than 10% away from its January all-time peak.

softparade

If silver closes about 79.50 OR SO at the end of February it would be the tenth straight month silver has closed higher than the month before. That is unprecedented by a huge margin. NOT A BUBBLE. I don't care what fiat is doing. I don't care about what the huge SCAM of paper metals is doing. Both are over printed garbage in the end. I have a 401k. I'm in never ending amazement of the devaluation that it experiences even as the balance goes up and up.

blitzdude

What's going on? The paper pumpers manipulated and now the trade will slowly die out. We will go back to the gutter and 2-3-4 decades from now you can come back and reminisce about what could'a been. THKS!

TwoSides2aCoin

What is happening is the pipeline of supply cannot keep up with the demand for delivery. What I could get in 7 to 10 days last year, takes 4-6 weeks since the first of this year.
And what was spot plus $1 is now spot plus $7 -$10.
As to Sterling and Constitutional (.900 junk silver)…. It’s what has kept me in business because the “people” held on to theirs , so far. So it is readily available but few want it. The market demands pure silver.

fathom

@blitzdude said:
What's going on? The paper pumpers manipulated and now the trade will slowly die out. We will go back to the gutter and 2-3-4 decades from now you can come back and reminisce about what could'a been. THKS!

We're all dying out...its matter of when.

Or what could happen is the use cases of silver continue to increase and silver continues on its path to higher percieved value AS a store of value.

blitzdude

@fathom said:

@blitzdude said:
What's going on? The paper pumpers manipulated and now the trade will slowly die out. We will go back to the gutter and 2-3-4 decades from now you can come back and reminisce about what could'a been. THKS!

We're all dying out...its matter of when.

Or what could happen is the use cases of silver continue to increase and silver continues on its path to higher percieved value AS a store of value.

Gold is the true store of value. Gutter metal is doorstops, boat anchors and hemorrhoid cream. RGDS!

fathom

@blitzdude said:

@fathom said:

@blitzdude said:
What's going on? The paper pumpers manipulated and now the trade will slowly die out. We will go back to the gutter and 2-3-4 decades from now you can come back and reminisce about what could'a been. THKS!

We're all dying out...its matter of when.

Or what could happen is the use cases of silver continue to increase and silver continues on its path to higher percieved value AS a store of value.

Gold is the true store of value. Gutter metal is doorstops, boat anchors and hemorrhoid cream. RGDS!

I'm not going to Like or Agree your post because I don't, but thank you for playing.

blitzdude

@fathom said:

@blitzdude said:

@fathom said:

@blitzdude said:
What's going on? The paper pumpers manipulated and now the trade will slowly die out. We will go back to the gutter and 2-3-4 decades from now you can come back and reminisce about what could'a been. THKS!

We're all dying out...its matter of when.

Or what could happen is the use cases of silver continue to increase and silver continues on its path to higher percieved value AS a store of value.

Gold is the true store of value. Gutter metal is doorstops, boat anchors and hemorrhoid cream. RGDS!

I'm not going to Like or Agree your post because I don't, but thank you for playing.

OK, thanks for letting me know and ditto. RGDS!

dcarr

@blitzdude said:

@fathom said:

@blitzdude said:
What's going on? The paper pumpers manipulated and now the trade will slowly die out. We will go back to the gutter and 2-3-4 decades from now you can come back and reminisce about what could'a been. THKS!

We're all dying out...its matter of when.

Or what could happen is the use cases of silver continue to increase and silver continues on its path to higher percieved value AS a store of value.

Gold is the true store of value. Gutter metal is doorstops, boat anchors and hemorrhoid cream. RGDS!

.

I'm not surprised that you would be familiar with hemorrhoid cream

.

blitzdude

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@fathom said:

@blitzdude said:
What's going on? The paper pumpers manipulated and now the trade will slowly die out. We will go back to the gutter and 2-3-4 decades from now you can come back and reminisce about what could'a been. THKS!

We're all dying out...its matter of when.

Or what could happen is the use cases of silver continue to increase and silver continues on its path to higher percieved value AS a store of value.

Gold is the true store of value. Gutter metal is doorstops, boat anchors and hemorrhoid cream. RGDS!

.

I'm not surprised that you would be familiar with hemorrhoid cream

.

Perhaps somewhat of a prerequisite for life in the gutter. RGDS!

Bayard1908

@blitzdude said:
Perhaps somewhat of a prerequisite for life in the gutter. RGDS!

The gutter schtick jumped the shark quite some time ago. Perhaps you'll have the good sense to refrain from posting these meaningless ramblings before silver hits another new all time high in the near future.