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What's it cost a large silver miner to produce per ounce of metal?
Baley
Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
Does anyone who follows silver mining stocks know the average cost (and the approximate range) for miners to produce an ounce of pure silver from ore?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
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I'm sure there is signifigant costs. Surely someone will chime in with some facts.
"...Over the past 67 years, nearly 144.5 million ounces of silver have been mined, with 3.5 million ounces produced in 2009 at an average ore grade of 10.86 ounces of silver per ton. The total average cash cost in 2009 was $5.21 per ounce of silver..."
I'm sure all producers have different costs per ounce but if they wanna stay in business it can't be TOO wide a variation (I assume).
next question: how long does it take to open or reopen a silver mine? I'm guessing between 18 and 36 months on average. any clarity on this one?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>a quick google search revealed numbers ranging from about $4 to about $15 per ounce.
next question: how long does it take to open or reopen a silver mine? I'm guessing between 18 and 36 months on average >>
I see what you are getting at, you are living in a dream world if you think you can start a project that quickly in today's regulatory environment.
Also, silver is primarily a by product of mining other metals, so those numbers may be misleading too.
Also, part of the question is not about starting a new mine from scratch, but also relates to reopening a mine that has been decomissioned as not profitable at lower bullion prices. Am I wrong in assuming that that is easier, permit and logistic-wise, than a brand new mine?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I don't think it is easy to specify a time frame anymore as projects can be tied up for many years in court. Case in point the Pebble mine in Alaska, discovered in 1988,
further exploration in 1992 estimated 11 million ounces of gold, today still tied up by opposition groups because of salmon habitat. This is not an easy way to make money.
thank god for digital currency!
Groucho Marx
I'm just sayin'
The FOX/CNBC folks all had "experts" on last week.
The lowest number I heard was $7.
The highest number I heard was $18.
.........
It depends on the accounting method used.
Does the number include all infrastructure costs?
How are infrastructure costs amortized?
How are the "other" metals derived from operations accounted
for in determining the silver "cost?"
If you look at the filings of some miners, you can get a WAG of
the actual costs but it takes a wizard to make a "for sure" guess.
...................
Beyond the weakness cited above regarding the bears' "miners to
the rescue" theory is the capitalism basic: The cost to produce an
item is often ONLY tangentially related to its price. (eg: Apple items
and tennis shoes.)
If it costs me $12 to discover a cure for cancer, I am not obligated
to sell my discovery for a "reasonable" multiple of that cost.
If the Saudis account for their costs of producing oil at <$5, the market
decides what it is "worth" WITHOUT looking at its "production cost."
As we saw last week, demand discovers value/price. Cost has some
use in determining a floor, but is almost useless in establishing market
maximums for an item, the production of which in a free market, presents
SUBSTANTIAL barriers to new folks who would like to enter the biznez.
<< <i>What does it cost a large Oil company to produce a gallon of gasoline to the tank of your car...and what is the % ratio of what it costs to produce an once of silver vs. a gallon of gasoline. If taken the time to research, i think you will see that the Metals miners profit margins will outweigh the Oil drillers when looked at from a % point of view. So who then is more greedy? Buying silver is a luxury, buying gasoline is a necessity.
I'm just sayin'
Have you considered biking to work? Industrial users do not consider silver a luxury. I assume you do not rely on computers or electronics in you life as in this forum.
<< <i>demand discovers value/price. Cost has some
use in determining a floor, but is almost useless in establishing market
maximums for an item, the production of which in a free market, presents
SUBSTANTIAL barriers to new folks who would like to enter the biznez. >>
Excellent post storm888.
<< <i>
<< <i>a quick google search revealed numbers ranging from about $4 to about $15 per ounce.
next question: how long does it take to open or reopen a silver mine? I'm guessing between 18 and 36 months on average >>
I see what you are getting at, you are living in a dream world if you think you can start a project that quickly in today's regulatory environment.
Also, silver is primarily a by product of mining other metals, so those numbers may be misleading too. >>
BigB
Opening a mine(open pit) is at least 5 years and maybe 10-15 in CAL. Reopening a closed mine happens much quicker.
Mining silver as a by product.......this is partly correct. When silver was driven down to 5 bucks, yes it was a by product. Above $10, it can stand on it's own.
ergo, my decision to own silver above $20/oz is not for me. I think that there is a near 99.99% probability that silver will be pushed down to $20 or under in the near or intermediate term.
If it can stay above $20 for the next few years, a lot of miners will be thankful. Very thankful.
The longer it can hold $20, the sooner it will be $15.
<< <i>What does it cost a large Oil company to produce a gallon of gasoline to the tank of your car...and what is the % ratio of what it costs to produce an once of silver vs. a gallon of gasoline. If taken the time to research, i think you will see that the Metals miners profit margins will outweigh the Oil drillers when looked at from a % point of view. So who then is more greedy? Buying silver is a luxury, buying gasoline is a necessity.
I'm just sayin'
I do not understand your premise. Which one are you saying is more greedy, the silver miner or the gasoline refiner?
In many cases older mines were abandoned because ore grades were just not high enough to warrant continuing production with silver prices low. What
I see happening is that it still takes a couple of years to recategorize the current asset by drilling. Standards for evaluating reserves and resources were
a lot more slack 15-20 yrs ago preceding the Bre-X miner scandal that blew up in 1997. So anything not NI 43-101 certified after that still has to go through
the tedious process of drilling ore holes and categorizing the resource. And once they have those, they still have to get financing, etc to develop a new mining plan
which can take years. It's not often that current and useful infrastructure was left behind for the next guy to use. I don't see previously mined deposits going to
market all that much sooner than fresh discoveries.
Reopening old mines is heavily dependent on getting a new permit under new and usually stricter conditions. Comparing environment and political regimes up to
decades apart can be quite striking. For example some of the biggest silver mines in the world are located in "politically" friendly Bolivia. A number of others are located
in "drug lord" friendly Mexico. How long before the DL's want a piece of the mining trade as well? We haven't begun to see the effects of sovereign nations looking
for a bigger cut of the pie that they have essentially "given away" for almost nothing in the 1990's and early 2000's.
Cash costs usually don't include all aspects of the company's overall costs. For instance I don't believe currency effects/swaps and derivatives are factored into cash costs.
So I'd tend to side with the "all-in" number being closer to the $10-$17 range.
The miner makes money assuming the mine stays open under their control (ie no strikes, no earthquakes-floods-cave ins, no govt takeovers, no permit pulling, no
wars, no insurrections, etc). 3-5 yrs might be a typical time to get an older mine back on line. A new mine can take up 7-10 yrs. 2 of the biggest world class discoveries
made in Alaska just a few years ago (Pebble and Donlin Creek) aren't due to come on line until 2017-2019, assuming they clear all the hurdles. Some of these new discoveries
are waiting for someone to come in and buyout the project. And in some cases the seniors want to see the explorer/junior put a lot of skin into the game before they leap. The
way things are going in the enviro-political world, it looks like it's only going to get slower to complete the entire discovery to production time line.
Note that the Hecla link above provided by BigRick demonstrates by-product revenues of gold, zinc and lead to offset their silver "cash costs." They also note that
the cash cost method does not conform to GAAP accounting. Again, pretty standard for the miners. In 1st QTR 2010 they had a cash cost per net equiv silver ounce
of -$3.03. It's not unusual for a larger miner to take a massive currency or derivatives hit in the tens of millions of dollars and have a negative income quarter.
It happens more often than you'd think. And those hits occur far more often than windfalls. Hecla has bounced back and forth between pos and neg quarters for the past few
years. They also recently got hit with an effective $260 MILL environmental judgement that they will have to pay off over the next several years. How does that factor into
the "cash cost" when net income might only be $70-$120 MILL per year? It ain't all gravy by any means. It's about how much you end up bringing home at the end of the year,
not just the cash cost. While Hecla is listed as a silver miner, they only received 33% of their production revenues from silver. Lead and Zinc production was >50% on a gross dollar
basis. So having a net negative cash cost per ounce is sort of meaningless when they are just as much a base metal as a PM miner. They report 1st QTR 2011 on Monday.
roadrunner
Follow up question: when will the production hit the market from the ramp-up of marginal mines that probably occurred once silver spot passed $30/oz?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
AZ mines are running now. Silver can stand on it's own now. It will continue to slide in price and the slower the slide, the more will be reclaimed and pulled from the ground and the more mines will be ramping up.
SEVEN months ago, I thought that the slide was coming. It's been gradual so the spring is getting ready to unwind in the next 12-18 months. Silver is an industrial metal and there is a lag between price and behaviour.
I'll still stand by my statement. The longer it can hold $20 or above.....the sooner you will see $15. My reasoning was $20+ makes mine operators smile all the way to the bank. More mines will reopen. When that additional silver gets sold...it will stabilize the price lower.
Revisit the thread in 6 months and see where we are.
regards, c
large silver producers that are still struggling at times. If it's not a $260 MILL EPA fine then it's a cave-in or extended strike, permit revocation, threat of
sovereign royality increases or nationalization. A lot of these risks to silver miners aren't even priced in at $17-$21/oz. How does one price in the risk of
having your mine nationalized or shutdown by a long term strike, or flooding? Gold miner AEM just took a $200 MILL write-off to their bottom line
because they lost one of their lowest cash-cost operating mines due to permanent flooding. Trying to figure out all the potential costs when you may be digging 3 miles
deep or 2 miles high is not easy.
Miners make it a point to focus on cash cost to entice buyers to their shares. If they actually listed the all-in cost and % probability of all risks, it wouldn't be as pretty.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>What does it cost a large Oil company to produce a gallon of gasoline to the tank of your car...and what is the % ratio of what it costs to produce an once of silver vs. a gallon of gasoline. If taken the time to research, i think you will see that the Metals miners profit margins will outweigh the Oil drillers when looked at from a % point of view. So who then is more greedy? Buying silver is a luxury, buying gasoline is a necessity.
I'm just sayin'
Have you considered biking to work? Industrial users do not consider silver a luxury. I assume you do not rely on computers or electronics in you life as in this forum.
So the industries involved in water purification, cell phones, computers, consumer electronics, medical antibiotics, catalysts, home appliances, automobiles, solar heating, etc. are purely luxery items???
<< <i>I think one flaw of the "miners coming to the rescue" theory for metal bears is that mining requires confidence of price stability for many years or decades in the future for the investment required. Even old projects cannot be turned on and off like a faucet.
I don't think it is easy to specify a time frame anymore as projects can be tied up for many years in court. Case in point the Pebble mine in Alaska, discovered in 1988,
further exploration in 1992 estimated 11 million ounces of gold, today still tied up by opposition groups because of salmon habitat. This is not an easy way to make money. >>
I can tell you for a fact they have been reopening gold and silver mines here in Northern NV for the past two years. Business is booming and towns like Elko are doing very well with new hotels going up.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>Is the reasoning behind finding a production cost to determine a "floor" for silver? >>
I think the answer to that is a resounding yes. Most people thinking about silver ultimately look at the cost of production to estimate a floor price.
But if we look back to the 1990's and early 2000's when the gold carry trade flourished, the gold miners themselves cut their own production and exploration budgets
while forward hedging and keeping the interest rate arbitrage. Barrick became a successfull "bank" during that period making $2 BILL in the process while
their shareholders got smacked. I think it's safe to say that the price of silver could fall well below actual "all-in" costs. But I don't think it's very likely that
it could fall to operational costs (ie cash costs per ounce). If I remember correctly royalty silver "miner" Silver Wheaton's cash costs are in the >$8 range.
And since they don't actually operate miners their costs are quite small. I don't see how an operating mine can claim cash costs per ounce of $6, esp. if they took
on a bunch of debt or contractual derivatives to get to that point.
roadrunner
The WSJ recently had an article about the decline in commodity prices (copper, corn, cotton, etc) because, upon an increase in commodity prices:
A. Producers sell futures contracts, to lock in the new higher price for future delivery, and
B. Producers plant more corn, cotton, whatever, or reopen marginal producing mines, or otherwise ramp up production
the other thing that happens when the price of a good rises, consumers demand less of it
The market (if relatively unfettered) has an amazing way of achieving a balance of supply and demand, using pricing to alter behavior..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I guess I don't see what would stop that from happening again... Now $50 seems like a hard top, with everyone wanting to get out at $48 "next time"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"So just how much does it cost to produce a 1973 Ford Pinto?'
"Don't know."
"You mean to tell me, that Ford doesn't know how much it cost to produce a 1973 Ford Pinto?"
"That's correct. It is now February. A the end of the year I will have our constantly changing cost figures for the production year and I will be glad to tell you how much each one cost us at that time."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>The production cost also MAY serve to illuminate a potential ceiling for the price of a commodity..
The WSJ recently had an article about the decline in commodity prices (copper, corn, cotton, etc) because, upon an increase in commodity prices:
A. Producers sell futures contracts, to lock in the new higher price for future delivery, and
B. Producers plant more corn, cotton, whatever, or reopen marginal producing mines, or otherwise ramp up production
the other thing that happens when the price of a good rises, consumers demand less of it
The mwasn't it amazing how much physical silver became 'available' once the price neared $50/oz? >>
Plenty of paper silver became available as price fell from $50. I have no idea how much real physical silver became available. If you were a large buyer and
wanted 10 MILL ounces, I doubt that was available to you even though on paper it should have been. Probably, still isn't. More and more buyers of metals are
leaving the Comex and LBMA and going directly to the silver producers to buy metal. This way they avoid the rigged games and end up with actual silver.
This takes more physical silver out of the Comex and LBMA loop. No doubt for J6P he could buy as many 1-100 oz silver bars that he could afford. It's far different
on the high end. The amount of true silver producers on the Comex is miniscule compared to the short positions held by "hedger" commercial banks. True silver
producers are a bit player these days. The banks rule the roost with their short positions. It's not a price discovery mechanism but rather price obfuscation. As the
months go on the Comex will play a smaller and smaller role in physical silver price discovery. I suspect within 3-5 yrs Comex may be a non-player in silver pricing.
As far as silver and gold mined supply increasing to match demand, that's a fairy tale. It will happen, but only years after the price has peaked. Production highs
from 2000-2002 have yet to be matched. And that's following 10 yrs in a bull market where PM prices are up 6X. Same thing happened following the 1970's bull run
where it wasn't until the mid-1980's where production peaked. In fact in gold and silver the producution peaks tend to occur when prices are near lows so that the loss
in price and can be minimized by increased volume. It takes 5-10 yrs to bring silver and gold mines on line, assuming you navigate the treacherous waters of getting
permits and financing. The Pebble mine in Alaska is one of the richest gold/copper strikes in the world...but it's been known for over 20 yrs. Meanwhile, they are still
hoping to someday get permits and hopefully construct a mine by 2017-2021....probably long after gold prices have peaked. Sorry, but gold and silver producers just
can't plant more "seeds" like the crop growers. And if the mining stocks continue to have years like 2011, there won't be any additional production showing up in the next
3-5 yrs. One cannot have junior mining companies losing money with constantly dropping share prices and expect a glut of production in the future. Naked shorting by the
banks may backfire on them as gold production stalls. Right now, the only mechanism of size to "reseed" is recycled gold and silver. But even recycled gold and silver
supplies have been dropping each year. There's only so much junk silver/gold coinage, jewelry, and silverware that can be called in to form new 0.999 coins and bars.
If one thinks $50 silver is a "hard" top then look at the 31 yr silver chart for guidance. All $50 did was "square" things to 1980 (non-inflation adjusted prices). There's still a CPI factor
of 2.6X to account for (ie $130/oz). And then after that, the actual inflation seen over the past 31 yrs....not what the BLS has reported. But it's correct that a lot of latel-comers
to silver who paid $40-$49/oz will be exiting the next time it hits that area. And that will complete the handle formation of the 30 yr cup. No doubt a lot of those people exited
silver after the bounce from $32-$33 back to $44. I don't think there's a ton of people left sitting in the $44-$49 range but there are some. But just as it took time to get rid of
the old hands in silver as it climbed from $8 to $20 (2009-2010), it will take time again at the $40-$49 area. But just as $20-$21 silver finally gave way following the exit of all the
weak hands, so will $49.
roadrunner
There's only so much junk silver/gold coinage, jewelry, and silverware that can be called in to form new 0.999 coins and bars
if refiner's reports are to be believed, there's lots of relatively new gold and silver coins and rounds going into the melting pot, to become new newer coins, victims including 1960's bu and proof coins, modern commems, and tons of privately issued bullion, Franklin mint stuff, and art bars
some of this is coined into "premium" dragon and eagle stuff with shiny finishes?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
then annual worlwide production goes from 800,000,000 punces per year ( source silverinstitute.org) tp 1.6 Billion. You get an additional 800,000,000 ounces per year so in 5 years you got an extra 4 billion ounces which if silver price stays at $30 would be an extra $120 Billion dollars in silver. During those same 5 years, the US govt is going to add 6 trillion dollars to the deficit ( CBO estaimates 1.2 Trillion deficit for years 2012-2016 ) so just with US debt alone its a 50X factor. That doesnt even include the outragous debts of other nations.
Someone is this thread said 99.99% chance silver falls to $20. I say he is hoping. Either way $20 silver is a gift, it will go way up long term.
This is very true. Just a simple calculation using the average closing price of the 5 days prior and after to get a REALISTIC high price of silver. For gold, I believe the average price was close to or under 700. Adjusted for inflation the price was in the 1800 area. So one could easily argue that gold and silver have matched it inflation adjusted highs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There's only so much junk silver/gold coinage, jewelry, and silverware that can be called in to form new 0.999 coins and bars
if refiner's reports are to be believed, there's lots of relatively new gold and silver coins and rounds going into the melting pot, to become new newer coins, victims including 1960's bu and proof coins, modern commems, and tons of privately issued bullion, Franklin mint stuff, and art bars
some of this is coined into "premium" dragon and eagle stuff with shiny finishes?
Silver at $50 and gold at $875 in 1980 were not sustainable....just future targets. How did $875 for gold work out as an unbreakable ceiling over the past 3-4 yrs?
How much time did gold spend above $850 in Jan '80 (hint - probably minutes or hours). We all forget that silver underperformed gold in the 1970's until spring 1979.
It was only in that last 9-12 months or so of the bull market where silver did a 10x increase compared to gold's 4X increase. But gold was the better performer from
1971-1978. Silver's brief stint at $49-$50 twice in the past 31 yrs is not an unbreakable barrier, just a new target. 31 yr cups don't really care how the tops of that
formation was created (min, hours, days, or weeks). Gold has already lead the way and broken out of its 30 yr cup while performing a doubling in price ($875 to $1922).
Silver has yet to get that far. And maybe gold goes back to the $1000 range to retest that 28-29 yr cup breakout before moving on....but I don't think so. Does it make
sense that gold double's it's 1980 high and silver doesn't even break it....and that's the end of the silver run? Seems improbable to me in light of all the continuing QE out there.
Anything minted before 1980 is the old stuff and much of that was already melted in the 1970's. Refiner's today have a fairly limited supply of post 1980 objects to recyle as
a silver price of $3-$6 during 1982 - 2004 didn't exactly create a huge demand for silver coins and art forms. Whatever the available supply of junk silver, it is limited. Most silver
coins made since about 1980 have been at least .995 pure....no reason to remelt those ever again. And while pre-1965 90% silver coin can be turned into .999+ today, it also has
a divisible value that the 1 oz coins just don't have. And for that reason a significant quantity of it will not be melted in this longer term cycel. When it comes to Franklin Mint and
other privately issued stuff, it probably pales in size to sovereign issues. As long as people are gullible enough to pay multiples of bullion for new "limited edition" mint products,
then even newer .999 silver coin and bars will be melted to feed that frenzy. But still, that demand is a drop in the bucket compared to the demand for just bullion silver.
roadrunner
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
ps, The price of a Ford has little to do directly with cost of the materials. No one knows what one car costs..
At least for Gold production costs, the 'all-in costs' (which is adding in the Derivatives/Swaps carried off-Books which are costs beyond Road Runners Cash Costs component) total Costs works out to be around $1250 to $1300 for the Majors.
Found It! GOLD
Great Visual of Current Gold "All-in Costs"
Silver All-In Costs July 2011
I'm sure the production cost per ounce varies regionally as well as time.
This is from the company's most recent annual report, $584 per oz.
Gold production for 2012 was 7.4 million ounces,
down slightly from the prior year, due to lower
production in South America, Australia Pacific and
ABG, partially offset by increased production in North
America. Total cash costs for 2012 were $584 per
ounce, up 27% over the prior year. The increase
reflects higher direct mining costs, particularly higher
labor, energy, maintenance and consumable costs, as
well as the impact of lower production levels in South
America, our lowest cost producer, which resulted
in higher consolidated unit production costs.
Edited to add that even if the companies mining gold and silver lose money, they keep mining
because they would lose even more money if they halted operations.
One of Barrick's biggest issues is the delay in their Pascua-Lama project in Chile. The govt basically gave them a halt order on the mine. They've already sunk $4.5 BILL into it and
figure on another $4 BILL to complete it. SLW is already counting on that silver stream. The mine was supposed to come on line in 2014 and now that's in question. This type of stuff
isn't in the cash costs.
gold around $1100 Gold all in mining cost
not my numbers, just some articles I have read
Any new thoughts regarding the relationship between production costs and market value?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The lowest cost silver producers are:
1) Silvercorp Metals Inc. (USA) (NYSE: SVM) $2.16
2) Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (NYSE: SLW) $4.12
3) Mandalay Resources Corp. (TSE:MND) $6.84
4) Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (TSE:FVI) $7.03
5) Endeavour Silver Corp (TSE:EDR) $7.92
These price include credits from other metals, so not just based on silver.
<< <i>With gold spot is currently about $1165 and silver is about $15.60, we seem to be approaching (or crossing) some of the numbers discussed in the thread.
Any new thoughts regarding the relationship between production costs and market value? >>
I saw something earlier this year or in later 2014 from SRS Rocco (alias Steve St Angelo) which put "self-sustaining/all-in" costs in the $18-$22 range for most silver miners. Cash costs, by-product costs, and other stupid variations only hide the real problems. Even the all-in costs leave out a few things. Most silver miners are losing money at current rates. The best one I recall seeing was SLW (royalty play vs. a miner) where their real costs were around $8-$12 averaged in. Their very best mine deal was down around $4/oz. I saw a recent article that listed the diesel fuel the senior gold miners used each year. It ranged from 150 MILL - $700 MILL gallons. That's a tidy sum.
Maybe the silver miners have lowered their costs a bit from that $18-$22 level. But based on quarterly reports, the majority of silver and gold miners are at best making a small profit, breaking even, or showing losses. The tide has not turned for them. The article linked by Bluelobster is based on cash costs, which leaves out about 40-50% of the actual costs. Cash costs only looking at net operating costs. Those don't include taxes, royalties, depreciation, depletion & amortization, replenishing diminishing reserves, figuring the value of reserves on current silver prices (ie not $20-$25/oz), etc.
This was a comment from SRSrocco at end of 2014.
As I stated in my recent article, 2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS: Top Primary Silver Miners Lost $1.9 Billion the average estimated breakeven for the group was $19 in 2014. I would imagine with the cost of oil down significantly, the breakeven should fall a little further in 2015.
Coeur (CDE) is one of the larger silver miners and reported Total costs, which add silver export duties, depreciation, depletion and amortization to cash costs, were $16.00 per payable ounce of silver sold in the first quarter of 2015, lower than the $17.40 per payable ounce of silver sold in the fourth quarter of 2014. They aren't the most efficient or inefficient silver miner out there. And their $16/oz "total" costs, still don't include ALL costs.
Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported 1st Qtr 2015 at $14.24 "all in sustaining - net of by products" for silver. It was $16.29 but they claimed a $2 NRV reduction. Cash costs were $11.71/oz averaged over 7 mines. Add in the 40% thumb rule and that 11.71 jumps up to $16.39 for "all in sustaining"....which still misses a few of the significant costs. If these guys were truly mining at "costs" of $2-$8/oz they'd be posting strong profits, not losses.
the silver ore.
Most mines are not just silver, and other metals can add significantly to the bottom line and therefore
reduce the cost to mine the silver. Some silver mines have gold as an bonus and some have rare earth
metals as a bonus, etc.
bob
IF YOU WANT AN AVERAGE FOR A BIG MINE THEN I'D GUESS IT'S CLOSE TO $8/OZ