2002-D Jefferson Nickel PCGS MS67FS POP 1

asdfy · January 6, 2003 11:27AM

Last night I listed a 2002-D Jefferson in MS67FS. This coin has a pop of 1 after staying all zero for all of 2002. This is a tough one, only 5 in MS66FS.

Ends Sunday Jan 12, around 8 Eastern.

2002-D Jefferson PCGS MS67FS

pontiacinf · January 7, 2003 4:19AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

thanks...needed that

Datentype · January 7, 2003 5:03AM

That's a nice $1,500 coin, possibly $2,000 if it were to stay pop 1 or even 2. My bet is there is going to be an even better looking one eventually

Myddleton · January 7, 2003 5:45AM

Let me get this straight.

You're saying that you think someone will pay you $2,400 for a nickel minted last week?

What if they pay you in $2,400 worth of nickels? You could then sell those 48,000 nickels for just over $110,000,000 - and if that were to be paid in nickels, well, then, the skys the limit.

Yes. I would definately ask to be paid in nickels.

ClausUrch · January 7, 2003 6:00AM

Problem is, out of those 48,000 nickels not a one will grade

Datentype · January 7, 2003 6:13AM

Myddleton

This is the same old arguement that goes on here at the boards several times a week. First of all, if you have not tried for that grade then your comments are not pertinent. Secondly, while it is true that if you were to make a whole bunch as you suggested you could make a lot of $, there sure are not going to be that many buyers at that level. Pops are not everything but after about 10 for that date pries would drop below $1,000 if not earlier.

Myddleton · January 7, 2003 6:30AM

You might be hearing this same argument at the boards "several times a week" because a lot of people agree with me that paying $2400 for a 2002 nickel because it is the "finest known" is misguided.

I guess I could try to take advantage of the few misguided buyers you mention by making my own MS67 Full Steps 2002 nickels, but I think I'd be more comfortable beating up old woman and stealing their pocket books.

cosmicdebris · January 7, 2003 6:30AM

Good luck on the auction Mike.

gmarguli · January 7, 2003 6:43AM

I guess I could try to take advantage of the few misguided buyers you mention by making my own MS67 Full Steps 2002 nickels, but I think I'd be more comfortable beating up old woman and stealing their pocket books.

I think paying this type of money is insane. However, you can't argue with the pop of this coin. These were minted ugly. Only 6 coins have graded MS66FS or higher. Go search for them. You won't find them nice.

That's not to say that there won't be 100 of these graded in the next few years....

supercoin · January 7, 2003 6:50AM

Beating up old ladies to get to their nickels seems a little extreme, and is not likely to yield many MS67 candidates. Maybe try a few mint sets first.

Datentype · January 7, 2003 7:19AM

like I said, It's a $1,500 coin and at the far end of the spectrum $2,000 unless the pop holds up at one. There are several informed buyers at this $1,500 level - trust me.

itsnotjustme · January 7, 2003 9:38AM

I wouldn't jump the guy for a high opening price. If someone decides to pay that much, he has done good business. If no one bids, I suspect it will relist with a lower open.

May you get a fair price as the market sets.

braddick · January 7, 2003 10:44AM

It's difficult to price a POP 1 coin especially when the undergrade is less than ten.
Look at the comments so far. Some place it at $1,500.00- $2,000.00. Someone else places it at .05 cents.

asdry is simply pricing it where he deems fit and considering it is his coin and his auction, he's justified to do so.
It's up to the market to determine if he's correct or not.

Datentype · January 7, 2003 10:47AM

Not to mention it's his coin. He does stand the risk of someone making 5 and selling them to the people who pay big $. By him keeping from making a deal he is taking on the risk of it dropping down to under $1,000 coin. Not too likely but anything is possible.

clackamas · January 7, 2003 3:15PM

I like to make the coins in my set, and would not pay that much for a recent coin, but that's what I like to do and the searching is the fun for me. However you need to consider the amount of work it takes plus just dumb luck to make that coin. I honestly don't think his price is too unreasonable. When you make $100K or more a year $2500 is the take home for about a week an a half after taxes. I guarantee you in that week and half that unless divine providence falls upon you or lotto type luck you can't make that coin regardless if 550 trillion of them were struck. Do you want the coin or not is the question. If you want it and don't want to pay then have at it. You can get $2500 in rolls from your bank and spend the next month going through them or you can fork out the coin and buy it. What is your time worth?

Schmitz7 · January 7, 2003 9:59PM

I will stick with the MS66FS of this date, with many to come, as I made 2 of these in MS66FS as reflected in the current populations from 2 rolls I purchased on-line on Ebay. I sold both for around $30 each.

Datentype · January 7, 2003 10:12PM

Schmitz7

you're kidding right? I have never heard of a decent coin coming from a late date d roll. $30?? I'll buy some at that price.

Datentype · January 7, 2003 10:14PM

clackamas

you are absolutely right on with that line of thought "what's the opportunity cost of your leisure time to put it in economic terms"

DRG · January 7, 2003 10:44PM

So may be I am crazy too![$1000 Penny

Datentype · January 7, 2003 10:58PM

DRG, you Dog! I made the other 2 92 in 9 but pcgs has not given me a 9 in over a year and they barely cut me any slack on a 7 or 8 these days. nice coin and priced fairly. let me know if it does not sell and i might buy it from you myself.

DRG · January 7, 2003 11:04PM

Thank you Datentype. I have already had email inquiries about the coin so I suspect it will sell, but thanks for the offer and I will keep you in mind.

I have several TOP POP coins up on Ebay right now so we will see how it goes.

My Ebay auctions

Schmitz7 · January 8, 2003 12:02AM

I sold one of the 2002-D in PCGS MS66FS for $37 on Ebay (Item # 1360428053) back on June 20th of this year. Believe it or not, YES, it was pulled from a bank-wrapped roll I bought on Ebay....so they are out there.

The ones I have seen in Mint sets look BAD, but the rolls seemed to range from MS62-66 as follows:

From 2 rolls searched: MS62 20, MS63 20, MS64 25, MS65 13, MS66 2 and no MS67 candidates.

Thanks,

Tim Schmitz

Datentype · January 8, 2003 2:40AM

Let me know if you make more 6's

NIckelCollector · January 8, 2003 2:41AM

If I remember correctly, I made two of the 2002D MS66FS. Both were from mint sets. Kept one sold one on Teletrade. Overall, the Jeffersons in mint sets were horrible.

I have since purchased numerous rolls probably 20+ and have found maybe 12 coins that would grade MS65FS or higher. Maybe two of these would grade MS66FS and no possibility for MS67FS. Only the MS66FS candidates will be sent in for grading.

Frank

Datentype · January 8, 2003 2:48AM

The one up for auction looks like it's from a mint set. The mint sets run hot and cold according to the BIN theory. maybe we'll see a bunch of nice D mint Jeff's coming up like the way it worked last year?

Myddleton · January 8, 2003 3:48AM

Tim offered the following for our consumption:

<< <i>I sold one of the 2002-D in PCGS MS66FS for $37 on Ebay (Item # 1360428053) back on June 20th of this year. Believe it or not, YES, it was pulled from a bank-wrapped roll I bought on Ebay....so they are out there.

The ones I have seen in Mint sets look BAD, but the rolls seemed to range from MS62-66 as follows:

From 2 rolls searched: MS62 20, MS63 20, MS64 25, MS65 13, MS66 2 and no MS67 candidates.

>>

Lets do some math:

Current pop is 1 in 67, 5 in 66. This to me suggests a ratio of 5 66s for every 1 67. But lets say its not 5 to 1. Lets say its 50 to 1. Heck, lets say its 500 to 1.

Tim looked through 2 rolls = 40 nickels. He found 2 66s (unscientific I guess to rely on Tim's grading, but my revised ratio takes care of that). So 1 out of every 20 in a roll is a 66.

I have no idea how many of these things were minted, or are sitting around in rolls so lets just say its 1,000,000 nickels. I believe the real number is probably hugely higher, but thats OK. So that gives us 50,000 66s. Using my 500 66s to 1 67 ratio that would suggest there might be 100 MS67s out there.

So why the fuss?

TheNumish · January 8, 2003 4:04AM

There is a 1956 Nickel PCGS MS-67 FS pop 1 in the Heritage auction. Right now it's at $2,700. I wonder what the final price will be on that one--$5,000??????? Maybe the price for the 2002-D isn't out of line.

gmarguli · January 8, 2003 4:15AM

Lets do some math:

Current pop is 1 in 67, 5 in 66. This to me suggests a ratio of 5 66s for every 1 67. But lets say its not 5 to 1. Lets say its 50 to 1. Heck, lets say its 500 to 1.

Tim looked through 2 rolls = 40 nickels. He found 2 66s (unscientific I guess to rely on Tim's grading, but my revised ratio takes care of that). So 1 out of every 20 in a roll is a 66.

I have no idea how many of these things were minted, or are sitting around in rolls so lets just say its 1,000,000 nickels. I believe the real number is probably hugely higher, but thats OK. So that gives us 50,000 66s. Using my 500 66s to 1 67 ratio that would suggest there might be 100 MS67s out there.

Let's do some correct math:

A roll is 40 coins, so Tim looked thru 80 coins.

The theory that if he found 2 coins in 2 rolls, that 1 MS66 can be found per roll is badly flawed. He found 1 per roll. He might have been lucky. Nice coins are not distributed evenly.

I have 10,000 of these rolls at home. I look thru 1 roll and find 1 MS66. You assume the odds of finding another MS66 is 1 per roll. What if I look thru 4 more rolls and find none? Now the odds are 1 in 5? I look thru all 10,000 rolls and find no more. So, I guess the odds are now 1 in 10,000 rolls?

The fact is that MANY people have looked for these coins and have not found them. Maybe they will turn up in massive numbers? Maybe it will be a real rarity? I don't know, but you cannot assume that the odds of an MS66 are 1 per roll and you cannot assume that there will be 5 MS66s made for every MS67. The sample size is too small to make those assumptions.

Myddleton · January 8, 2003 4:55AM

Greg -

You are correct, there are 40 nickels in a roll.

On the other hand, I checked the mint figures in the meantime. They made 667,000,000 of these nickels in 2002 in Denver. Do you know how large a number 667,000,000 is? It is very, very big.

My analysis assumed there were just 1,000,000 nickels sitting in rolls somewhere, and it turns out you've got 400,000 of them in your house.

Lets say the real number sitting in rolls somewhere is 5% of the total mintage. That'd be 33 million and change.

No re-run my figures with 40 per roll, and a total population of 33 million to look through AND say that the ratio of 66 to 67 isn't 5 to 1, or 50 to 1, or 500 to 1. Say its 50,000 to 1. Try that.

Still seem rare to you?

BNE · January 8, 2003 5:04AM

tjkillian · January 8, 2003 5:12AM

To me, it is not a question on whether he has the only MS-67FS nickel that will EVER be made, I would not ever spend that much money for a coin made last year. For that much money, I could be a nice MS-65 Seated Liberty Half Dollar or a MS-63BN Classic Large Cent. I know this is modern bashing, but...

Tom

nwcs · January 8, 2003 5:26AM

Remember, too, that in 1995 the low relief, single-hubbing dies were released and so it is my belief that FS is much easier to get (as it seems that many I find are FS). So a pre-1995 coin in 67FS is always going to be at a higher premium than post.

cladking · January 8, 2003 6:17AM

<< <i>

Lets say the real number sitting in rolls somewhere is 5% of the total mintage. That'd be 33 million and change.

Still seem rare to you? >>

Actually it takes about three years for the entire mintage of a modern to get into circulation.
It will then take another three years before every single example of the issue has at least
some wear. In other words, close to 50% of these coins are still sitting in rolls and bags.
Historically very few people have done anything to impede these moderns from going into
circulation. Many moderns have very tiny populations in BU rolls. This is often just as well
since quality of some of these rolls is abysmal and finding an MS-61 in them can be difficult,
and gems are usually easier to find in mint sets anyway.

More than 99% of these coins will go into circulation without even being checked for gems or
varieties. Very few coins will be actually set aside for future collectors since very few believe
these have much potential for appreciation. Generally a few people will set aside a large num-
ber and that will be it. If they didn't happen to find a batch containing gems then there will be
no gems from BU rolls.

Doing the math is a great idea, but you need to understand the numbers and the situation
to get a meaningful answer.

Myddleton: You might consider turning on your PM and adding your info to the membersip ros-
ter at the bottom of the pages.

braddick · January 8, 2003 8:04AM

That's the funny deal looking for these high grade FS Jeffersons. You might find two in the first 80 nickels you look through, or not find those same two coins until you've searched 800.
When these are bought and sold it is not just the coin that is being offered and purchased, but the time it took to locate it.

wondercoin · January 8, 2003 8:36AM

Coin series often "shift" and become excessively "hot" or "soft", or somewhere in between. Obviously, Buffalo nickels are on fire right now, and Jeffersons are also fairly hot, especially for low pop pieces. So, ASDFY will see if there is interest at $2400 (I'm not suggesting that is "wrong") on this pop 1/0 and if he does not get his price, I suspect (just a guess) he may try a different offering level. And, while the pop 9 1926(s) Buffalo fetched $103k+ in PCGS-MS65, in the same auction the 1893 Liberty Nickel in NGC-MS67 (pop 2/0 with only 2/0 in PCGS-MS66) fetched under $5k. So, what makes the most sense to you? A pop 1/0 2002(d) nickel in PCGS-MS67FS at $2500, an 1893 Liberty Nickel in NGC-MS67 (with a pop 2/0 in the undergrade PCGS-MS66) at under $5,000 or a pop 9/0 1926(s) Buffalo Nickel in PCGS-MS65 at under $105,000?

Hey, forget all those nickels (although I personally bought that 1893 nickel) - yesterday, I also bought the only coin in the 19th Century featuring Lincoln on it - the "1866 Lincoln nickel" in finest known PCGS grade (estimated total mintage around 14-15 coins). The coin was prepared by the Mint for sentimental reasons in 1866 and I was lucky to win it last night. And it only cost me around the price of (4) 2002(d) nickels in PCGS-MS67FS!

Wondercoin

Schmitz7 · January 8, 2003 11:14AM

Mitch...how about a scan of that 1866 nickel on your web site once you get a chance

Tim Schmitz

solid · January 8, 2003 2:02PM

BNE, even when you don't say a thing, it's a pleasure looking at your nickel icon!

wondercoin · January 8, 2003 2:42PM

Tim: I'll try to get a scan of it on this board. I figured since I can't compete with Stuart on his low pop Lincolns, I ought to buy the lowest mintage "Lincoln" copper coin on the planet

Wondercoin

2002-D Jefferson Nickel PCGS MS67FS POP 1

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