Interesting Pogue auction article on Coinweek - compares each result to estimates, also what it was

WinLoseWin · October 5, 2015 10:58AM

A good account of being there along with all of the results.

http://www.coinweek.com/auctions-news/pogue-ii-rare-coin-market-roars-a-look-at-the-numbers/

lowcountrycoinut · October 5, 2015 11:37AM

Thanks for the link. Very interesting!

Ablinky · October 5, 2015 11:46AM

A great read.

TopographicOceans · October 5, 2015 11:50AM

Laura Sperber Would Not Be Denied

I watched and put some bids in onlne, but they didn't last long.
This was just pocket change I guess

TahoeDale · October 5, 2015 12:06PM

Greg,

I think this may be your best review ever! And David did a super job as well.

messydesk · October 5, 2015 12:14PM

Great report!

EastonCollection · October 5, 2015 12:47PM

I attended the auction and the article was dead on.

keyman64 · October 5, 2015 1:43PM

As with just about any article, it can be picked apart.
Like where it is said that "Only 25 lots failed to exceed their high estimate, while only three missed their low estimate price."

Only 25? They do realize that is close to 25% of the entire auction, right? Not sure where the word "ONLY" has any
fit in that sentence except for where it applies to the three that missed the low estimates. So this means ONLY 20.9%
fell into those very broad range pre-auction estimates and 2.86% missed everything. In theory that makes the auction
house look good, right?

Through casual observations of my own, I believe these pre-sale estimates are frequently low, especially for big time sales of
quality material. I have casually noticed a good bit of this at other auction houses that provide these estimates. I won't any
here since that would draw attention away from this article and auction. So, why not bring this into the article
if you are going to mention the lower? Approx. 70+% exceed the high estimates by a margin that I deem significant. None
of this was said. We also have to remember that the estimate ranges are rather broad as well. I learned a long time ago that
you need to not only have a reading comprehension for what is said but for what is not said.

Back when I had a few piles of cash to rub together and also when I was a bit new to the game of auctions, I would explore
some of these auctions. I would pick out a few coins I liked, look at price guides, read through prior auction results etc. Then I
would bid and take the broad pre-auction estimates into consideration. I thought that these estimate writers knew what they
were talking about with their vast decades of knowledge. Then I would watch the joke of the pre-auction
estimates unfold. At first I was disappointed. Now, I study harder and just laugh at the folks that come up with the pre-auction
estimates. Remember, these estimate ranges are very broad! To miss with broad ranges 70+% of the time, what does that really say
about the folks coming up with the estimates? If we visit into the realm of psychology, it will tell us the folks coming up with the
estimates are being conservative in a CYA type of approach for the auction houses so that they can point to the fact that their
place is a good place to auction coins since almost all coins either meet or exceed estimates. The low estimates also provide
the benefit of drawing in more bidders within the lower ranges to help get something bid up...possibly. The article mentions the
high pre-auction estimates for many lots. Why do that throughout the article when it is so obvious that those numbers are meaningless?

But I digress...It was an interesting read, especially if you pay close attention to what is said and what is not said. I really did enjoy the
writing style and presentation of the material. Thanks for that.

I did find it humorous, the casual Harry Potter comparison of Laura Sperber to Lord Voldemort.

I wonder if she takes offense with this reference considering Lord Voldemort is an evil beast of a wizard in the Harry Potter series.
Harry's archenemy, if you will.
GOOGLE LINKY FOR YOUR READING PLEASURE...or not.

yosclimber · October 5, 2015 1:58PM

Nice article describing the bidding action.

Greg Reynold's article from today with analysis of several of the non-headline coins, and personal observations, is at:
http://www.coinweek.com/expert-columns/greg-reynolds-classic-rarities/the-marvelous-pogue-family-coin-collection-part-9-us-gold-coin-rarities-bring-strong-prices/
I enjoyed this article very much.

keyman64 · October 5, 2015 2:47PM

<< Nice article describing the bidding action.

Greg Reynold's article from today with analysis of several of the non-headline coins, and personal observations, is at:
http://www.coinweek.com/expert-columns/greg-reynolds-classic-rarities/the-marvelous-pogue-family-coin-collection-part-9-us-gold-coin-rarities-bring-strong-prices/
I enjoyed this article very much. >>

Interesting read but again there is a reference to "strong prices" everywhere. Based on my comments above, I wonder if
they were truly strong or really more in line with what SHOULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED. If the "strong price" reference game is
a flawed reference to the much too conservative broad-ranged pre-auction estimates, then what are we really looking at here? It was mentioned that
many coins went to collectors and sold for what might be considered to be retail....it is not said that prices paid were 4x Retail or something
like that. Now that would be crazy. What might strong pricing be, 1.5-2x retail? My view is that sale prices would have been STRONG
had the auction sale hit in the mid $30 million range. Since when is normal retail a strong price for something so rare? I say it is ONLY strong
when you compare it to the much too conservative broad-ranged pre-auction estimates. Reality is much different. More and more collectors have
been participating in auctions themselves for 10+ years, easily! This cuts out the middle-man, aka the dealer. So, prices are strong because of this?
I disagree. They might be strong in the view of dealers if they are just not able to make money off of the lots any longer? Really, is this the true
criteria of strong pricing?

My take, the sale finished within the expected reality. It went well because of that, sure. Strong though, not so sure about that. I think we needed
to get into the mid-30 realm for that to happen.

Hydrant · October 5, 2015 3:18PM

I sense a somewhat subdued tone surrounding all the post auction chatter. The problem is that a lot of people believed their own hype. I'm happy for Laura the Legend Lady snagging that primo silver dollar. It gives her another thing to brag about. Gotta give credit where credit is due. She earns it!

cameonut2011 · October 6, 2015 12:58AM

I wish Laura would post here. It would be interesting to see her in-depth commentary (above and beyond the stuff that makes the Legend site).

ColonelJessup · October 6, 2015 2:40AM

<< Greg,

I think this may be your best review ever! And David did a super job as well. >>

Having been there, Greg nailed it. Rarely, if ever, have I been more impressed by incisive reportage and analysis.

David is not only omnipresent and ubiquitous but also numismatics' most knowledgeable paparazzo. At least when he's around . .

The coins were nice too.

halfhunter · October 6, 2015 2:42AM

It hasn't been that many years ago when coins breaking the $1,000,000 mark were big news in numismatic circles and were often covered by the MSM.
Now 3 & 4 million dollar coins hardly make a ripple . . .

HH

ColonelJessup · October 6, 2015 2:54AM

<< I did find it humorous, the casual Harry Potter comparison of Laura Sperber to Lord Voldemort.

I wonder if she TAKES OFFENSE with this reference considering Lord Voldemort is an evil beast of a wizard in the Harry Potter series.
Harry's archenemy, if you will. . . . >>

COMPLIMENT . . .

Zoins · October 6, 2015 2:55AM

<< Greg,

I think this may be your best review ever! And David did a super job as well. >>

I'm a big fan of Greg's articles and enjoy reading them, but to give credit where credit is due, the article in the OP is written by Charles Morgan and Hubert Walke. It mentions that Greg was at the auction and provide his own article later in this line: "CoinWeek’s Greg Reynolds, who was also at the sale, will report on the coins he was tracking in a special supplement to his weekly column."

The link to Greg's article came further down in the thread and is excellent as well.

drddm · October 6, 2015 3:00AM

Great article Greg, and yes, it was spot on.

I've been fortunate enough to have attended both Pogue auctions so far, and as described, the bidding was quite spirited last week and the room filled with lots of excitement for so many incredible coins.

Zoins · October 6, 2015 3:05AM

As a follow on to keyman64's comments, Greg quoted John Albanese saying “the sale went better than I expected. Most prices for gold coins were retail. I could not buy one coin for inventory. The early half eagles did especially well.”

How often are prices at auctions retail these days in general?

keyman64 · October 6, 2015 3:11AM

<< As a follow on to keyman64's comments, Greg quoted John Albanese saying “the sale went better than I expected. Most prices for gold coins were retail. I could not buy one coin for inventory. The early half eagles did especially well.”

How often are prices at auctions retail these days in general? >>

I find it to be the norm these days rather than the exception. So with things within the "normal" range, I don't understand how these prices are considered to be strong by some. Don't we have enough hype when it comes to these auctions? I did not think "reporters" would be contributors to the hype.

ColonelJessup · October 6, 2015 3:25AM

<< 

<< .... the article in the OP is written by Charles Morgan and Hubert Walke. It mentions that Greg was at the auction and provide his own article later in this line: "CoinWeek’s Greg Reynolds, who was also at the sale, will report on the coins he was tracking in a special supplement to his weekly column."

The link to Greg's article came further down in the thread and is excellent as well. >>

>>

Not familiar with the names, but now I will be. They are to be congratulated

cc99999 · October 6, 2015 6:08AM

Thanks for the thread about the article that Hubert Walker and I wrote for CoinWeek. Greg also does great work and we appreciate his effort.

sparky64 · October 6, 2015 7:12AM

I also enjoyed the article. Nice work and thanks.

Interesting Pogue auction article on Coinweek - compares each result to estimates, also what it was

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