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My Thoughts on First Pogue Sale
homerunhall
Posts: 2,498 ✭✭✭
This week we saw the first auction sale (128 coins) of the fabulous Pogue collection. There were some monster prices for some of the monster coins. And there were some prices that seemed a little soft. The softness is understandable, as the market has softened a bit in the last 12 months. And the monster prices are also understandable as the Pogue are off-the-charts for the combination of rarity, quality, and eye appeal...perhaps the greatest collection ever assembled in that regard. The gold prices seemed to be very strong, and the half dimes seemed a little soft. But who am I to say? Not the point of this post.
The point is how are we handling this on the PCGS Price Guide. First, we stayed up the night of the auction and incorporated the Pogue sale price action into the Price Guide that night. Our approach was to weigh the Pogue prices heavily, and in the case of the coins that are unique, and semi-unique for the grade, and therefore trade very infrequently, the Pogue price is the price. The second thing we did was leave the price increase percentages as they appear, with no adjustments or "smoothing" as we call it. Usually, if a coin trades for, let's say, $100,000 in 1995. And then it doesn't trade again until 2015 and then brings $300,000, what we usually do is "smooth" the historical record to reflect what is the most probable reality. So in this example, the obvious reality was that this coin was worth more than $100,000 in 2014, 2013, 2012, etc....but who was to know until it did trade and establish the new value. But for the Pogue results, we just left the increase or decrease percentages in price as is. We figured it would be fun for you to check out some of the big jumps. Just go to the PCGS Price Guide home page menu and click on the "Price Changes" link on the left. Then look at "One week top gainers" and "One week top losers" list. It's fun to check out the Pogue price action...and yes, as a die hard collector of too many things, I often wish I had Bill Gates' money, especially at this sale!!!!!!!!!!!
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It went for $4,500 + BP.
The price guide shows it at $3,450 now. I guess that's the Pogue Premium.
The bad news is I don't own any of the Top 10 coins that have a 100%+ increase in the last week.
But the good news is also don't own any of the Top 10 losers that had a 30% decrease in the last week either.
It is a pretty coin.
So, the 1832 half dime sold for $13K without the juice and the PCGS price guide didn't go up. What gives? Maybe because it was a rarity 4 or its provenance or both?
<< <i>So, is the PCGS price guide wholesale, retail or auction prices realized?? >>
IMPORTANT: The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins. The PCGS Price Guide is a guide to assist the coin buying public in determining values for all important United States rare coins. Before you use the Price Guide, you should read the following information very carefully.
WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN? The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>
<< <i>So, is the PCGS price guide wholesale, retail or auction prices realized?? >>
IMPORTANT: The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins. The PCGS Price Guide is a guide to assist the coin buying public in determining values for all important United States rare coins. Before you use the Price Guide, you should read the following information very carefully.
WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN? The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed. >>
If the PCGS Price Guide numbers are, in fact, "average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins", then one would think that they should be higher than auction prices realized on coins (at least those that are bought by dealers for stock). If Dealer A buys a coin from auction with the idea of selling it at a profit (which is what seems to happen to a reasonable number of coins that sell at auction), I should think his asking price would have to be in excess of the auction sale price for that coin - at least if Dealer A hopes to stay in business.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
<< <i>If the PCGS Price Guide numbers are, in fact, "average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins", then one would think that they should be higher than auction prices realized on coins (at least those that are bought by dealers for stock). If Dealer A buys a coin from auction with the idea of selling it at a profit (which is what seems to happen to a reasonable number of coins that sell at auction), I should think his asking price would have to be in excess of the auction sale price for that coin - at least if Dealer A hopes to stay in business. >>
Based on what I read on this board and elsewhere, most of the high profile coins in this auction
ended up with collectors, not dealers. FWIW.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
On paper, I benefitted nicely from some of the price increases but remain cautious
about being able to realize the theoretical gains in the early QE series.