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*!*!*!* 2012 "S" ASE Set Final Day Sales Predictions *!*!*!*
Kudbegud
Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've seen predictions all over the map. From no big last minute sales to big enough to crash the Mints servers Seems everybody has their own idea.
Will there be a big rush to order if it looks like this set will be a low mintage rarity? Have all the TV Shopping Channels, flippers and normal dealers already bought all the set they need? Or will they bolster their stocks in anticipation of demand for a rare issue? Will the general public become aware of this set through the just arriving Mints summer catalog and not want to miss out on this opportunity? Will the July 4th holiday effect last minute sales?
What's the magic number below which there is a low mintage rarity and above just another unremarkable mintage? 180,000? 200,000? 250,000?
Who knows? Do you think you have it figured out? Maybe yes, maybe no. Make your own prediction right here.
Sales end Thursday July 5th at 5 PM EDT. The Mints odometer will be incremented with those final days sales on Friday July 6th approximately 3PM EDT. This is the number you are guessing.
This thread will accept guesses for one week. Starting today and running through Wednesday June 27th at 7PM EDT
One guess per forum member
Closest to the final number, over or under, will be the winner
In case of a tie, the earliest posted number would be the winner
Please guess a specific number
The winner will receive a limited mintage, uncirculated 2005 Maui Trade Dollar, CuNi, 39.2mm Crown size.
Good Luck and Good Guessing !
.................................................................................................................................
My guess is 20,000
Will there be a big rush to order if it looks like this set will be a low mintage rarity? Have all the TV Shopping Channels, flippers and normal dealers already bought all the set they need? Or will they bolster their stocks in anticipation of demand for a rare issue? Will the general public become aware of this set through the just arriving Mints summer catalog and not want to miss out on this opportunity? Will the July 4th holiday effect last minute sales?
What's the magic number below which there is a low mintage rarity and above just another unremarkable mintage? 180,000? 200,000? 250,000?
Who knows? Do you think you have it figured out? Maybe yes, maybe no. Make your own prediction right here.
Sales end Thursday July 5th at 5 PM EDT. The Mints odometer will be incremented with those final days sales on Friday July 6th approximately 3PM EDT. This is the number you are guessing.
This thread will accept guesses for one week. Starting today and running through Wednesday June 27th at 7PM EDT
One guess per forum member
Closest to the final number, over or under, will be the winner
In case of a tie, the earliest posted number would be the winner
Please guess a specific number
The winner will receive a limited mintage, uncirculated 2005 Maui Trade Dollar, CuNi, 39.2mm Crown size.
Good Luck and Good Guessing !
.................................................................................................................................
My guess is 20,000
0
Comments
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The uptick in daily sales for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday shows there is still interest in
this set. It could be a result of the mailed out Mint's summer catalog reaching customers
starting Wednesday. A whole new group of collectors has been made aware of the sets, and they
are ordering. The weekend should see a similar increase in sales. We shall see on Monday.
If more collectors, from serious to casual to impulse buyers, are buying these sets now, how
will this effect the possible last minute buys to get in on a low mintage issue? Does the low
mintage possibility even figure in for a lot of these recent buyers? Or did they get the
catalog, like the set and placed an order? Or did they remember hearing something about the
25th Anniversary set controversy and wanted in right away while ordering was still open? Will
these people who are ordering since the catalog arrived in their mail make a second buy in the
closing moments of the ordering period? Probably not for 99% of them.
You had a theory before the catalogs got delivered. Did you even think about a Mint catalog
coming in the mail to a hugh group of consumers? I didn't. Does this effect your theory?
How will this effect the low mintage possibility? Or does it matter? At what ordering level
would you consider it a low mintage set? Under 200,000? Under 250,000? Under 300,000?
Has your prediction of the final days sales changed? Think about it. Ponder some more. Then
post a guess in the Final Day Sales Prediction thread. Guesses eligibility will remain open
till Wednesday evening.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
My guess is 8,475.I dont know if the tv coin shops will be a factor.These guys dont want to buy them july 5th and then wait for 3 weeks before they get delivered.They are more of a have it in stock and sell type of business.I'm sure that they might order some but not more than 1000,which they will sell for $899 a set pf 70 from anacs.
These things were struck two months ago! Why the slow shipping performance?
Who is in charge of JIT at the mint? They are JIT, if anything, they are WOOT (Way Out Of Time).
The Mint may ship earlier than is presently shown. I think they minted a bunch before these even went on sale. But how many? Maybe they haven't made any yet because they didnt know what the order numbers will be. The presses will spin up after sales close to fill all the orders plus some for quality issue replacements. It's got to be more efficient to do a large single run rather than two smaller ones.
<< <i>I think the TV shopping networks jumped in on the first day. They will be watching the counter and may buy more if they think they can sell more sets over what they already ordered.
The Mint may ship earlier than is presently shown. I think they minted a bunch before these even went on sale. But how many? Maybe they haven't made any yet because they didnt know what the order numbers will be. The presses will spin up after sales close to fill all the orders plus some for quality issue replacements. It's got to be more efficient to do a large single run rather than two smaller ones. >>
I called the Mint and the lady said they are not shipping before the end of sales. Of course, you never know.
What about cancellations? I predict people who ordered a lot of coins will get cold feet and cancel on the last day.
$$$ signs in the eyes have been known to make people do unwise things. Especially with US Mint Products.
<< <i>Check out the expected delivery date on new orders. Looks like all coins ordered now will not be first strike eligible. Does this change anything? >>
YES, maybe 30-50% less resale $$$ on the set.
Has the buying spate from Mint catalogs reaching the public had any effect on the rush to buy before it's too late?
The winner will receive a limited mintage, uncirculated 2005 Maui Trade Dollar, CuNi, 39.2mm Crown size.
Good Luck and Good Guessing !
Ray
MGySgt USMC(ret)
1979-2003
Aviation Radar Technician
Communications & Electronics Chief
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
its the day after a major US holiday/holiday week in the US....you have to wait 2 months+ now....we all know the final total is ranging 195-225ish so it isn't super rare....all the major players have their orders in, so it is going to be retail only....
bottom line...if you wanted one...you prob already ordered....
jmho
gyros
edited to give specific number
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Thanks,
Ray
PS. If I am the lucky winner you can give the prize to a young Numismatist as this coin does not fit in my collection and I am trying drastically to shrink my collection as I will be moving soon.
24 predictions, averaging 19,247 (not including the mistaken guesses of the final total sales. Of course, they are still in the running with their guesses, just not figured into the average.)
We will see next Friday who is the Master Predictor.
So this begs the question: Will the mint accept mail orders post marked at or before the deadline of 5 PM Thursday July 5th? Or, do mail orders need to be in mint hands by the 5 PM close of sales to be accepted, regardless of post mark?
Either way, it won't effect this thread. The winner will be the closest to the final day sales as determined by the Thursday July 6th counter posting minus the July 5th counter number.
Just asking the clueless out there who still mail in orders to the Mint>>>>>>>
One of those things that get a deserved "Duh"