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Educational study: Rarity Analysis 1901 VS 1904 Double Eagles
Dennis88
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The 1904 Double Eagle, which is a Type III Liberty $20, has long been regarded, and surely is the most common Liberty Double eagle. With an immense mintage of 6,256,699 coins (circulation issue strikes), it is the most heavily produced Double Eagle ever minted. The 1904-S also has a very high mintage of 5,134,175 coins, but there are many, many more Philadelphia Double Eagles known dated 1904, then their San Francisco counterpart.
A 1904 Double Eagle is the coin most used in type sets to represent the Type III Liberty Double Eagle, or in “design” sets, just the whole Liberty Double Eagle Design. It’s the most common coin, thus also the one with the lowest price (Up to MS62, as with more common Double Eagles, there hardly is any premium above the gold value of these big coins).
The thing with the 1904 $20 is that it is, like I said the most common Liberty Double Eagle, and there will nobody who will argue that. According to Bowers Red Book on Double Eagles there are, PCGS and NGC graded, more than 200,000 Mint State example graded, and Dave Bowers states that there are 300,000-500,000+ estimated mint state examples known. I think this is even more, probably close to 900,000 Mint State examples known. Even in MS65, there are more than 5,500 1904's graded, with another 225+ examples in MS66 and 3 in MS67, with that being the highest grade certified.
Let's take another early 20th century double eagle, the 1901. There were 111,430 minted, as opposite to the 6,256,699 1904 double eagles minted. In mint state, there are about 6,000 examples graded, with an estimated 10,000-15,000+ examples known in Mint State. Of these graded Mint State examples, roughly 465 have been graded MS65, and another 3 have been graded MS66, with that being the highest grade certified. A fairly large difference in both the Mint State examples graded and known, but still both numbers show a large difference. This might be important to note, as there sure are new pop tops who are currently ungraded, but will eventually get graded by either PCGS and NGC (and this counts for every series, from Draped Bust Half Cents to clad Washington Quarters).
Now let's look at the prices of both these coins. The latest MS65 1901 and 1904 examples graded by PCGS brought the following prices at Heritage sales (as I said, I can't compare with prices on the bourse):
1901: $5,175.00, February 26, 2005 PCGS pop 235/3
1904: $3,450.00. July 28, 2005 PCGS pop 2121/94
And NGC graded examples brought the following prices:
1901: $5,290.00, November 6, 2004 NGC pop 259/0
1904: $3,737.50, July 30, 2005 NGC pop 4498/147
(All these coins are graded in the newer holders)
There are the following differences between 1901 and 1904 in the pops of both grading services (in ms65):
PCGS:
Roughly 1900 coins
NGC:
Roughly 4300 coins
Now let’s do some math:
Total coins minted of the 1901 Philadelphia issue: 111,430
Total coins minted of the 1904 Philadelphia: 6,256,699
Percentage 1901 Twenties minted compared to 1904 Twenties: 111,430/6,256,699 X 100 = 1.78%
Percentage Mint State coins compared to it’s original mintage supposed to be known of the 1901 issue (own estimate): 11,000/111,430 X 100 =9.87%
Percentage Mint State coins compared to it’s original mintage supposed to be known of the
1904 issue (own estimate): 950,000/6,256,699 X 100 = 15.18%
(I’ve chosen these numbers because 85% of the Double Eagles I see for sale in Europe are 1904’s, so there are supposedly many examples hiding in other countries then the US).
Total coins graded MS65 of the 1901 Philadelphia issue compared to it’s mintage: 465/111,430
X 100 = 0.417%
Total coins graded MS65 of the 1904 Philadelphia issue compared to it’s mintage: 5,500/6,256,699 X 100 = 0.088%
Now, this means the following:
-The mintage of the 1901 Philadelphia $20 was about 55 times less than the 1904 issue of the same mint.
-The are more examples of the 1901 $20 graded MS65 than you would expect from it’s mintage, but it still is considerably scarcer in MS65 than the 1904 $20 in MS65, due to the big mintage of the MS65.
-People will probably submit a 1901 faster than a 1904 because of it’s low mintage and Mint State examples graded.
-There are probably many, many Gem MS65 examples of the 1904 currently not graded by either PCGS or NGC.
This leads me to the following conclusions of this little study:
-While the 1901 is less rare in MS65, when looking at percentages, it’s much less available due to it’s low mintage.
-The 1904 is a very overrated coin, even when there are less examples certified in MS65 then you would expect, it doesn’t mean there are many more examples known in or near MS65 grade currently ungraded.
-The 1901 is priced too low for it’s relative rarity in Gem MS.
-People will have a far more scarcer coin in their type sets when they use a different date then the 1904, which is as common as dirt.
-The price difference between a very common Liberty Double eagle (1904) and a scarcer coin (1901) is much smaller then in some other series.
As always, comments are welcome, either in this thread or trough PM.
Dennis
Sources:
-R.S. Yeoman, edited by Kenneth Bresset Official guide book of United States coins, 58th edition 2005
-Q. David Bowers A guide book of Double Eagle gold coins
-Heritage Numismatic auctions Fun Signature sale #336 January 7, 2004
-Thanks to Boiler78 for reviewing the first version
A 1904 Double Eagle is the coin most used in type sets to represent the Type III Liberty Double Eagle, or in “design” sets, just the whole Liberty Double Eagle Design. It’s the most common coin, thus also the one with the lowest price (Up to MS62, as with more common Double Eagles, there hardly is any premium above the gold value of these big coins).
The thing with the 1904 $20 is that it is, like I said the most common Liberty Double Eagle, and there will nobody who will argue that. According to Bowers Red Book on Double Eagles there are, PCGS and NGC graded, more than 200,000 Mint State example graded, and Dave Bowers states that there are 300,000-500,000+ estimated mint state examples known. I think this is even more, probably close to 900,000 Mint State examples known. Even in MS65, there are more than 5,500 1904's graded, with another 225+ examples in MS66 and 3 in MS67, with that being the highest grade certified.
Let's take another early 20th century double eagle, the 1901. There were 111,430 minted, as opposite to the 6,256,699 1904 double eagles minted. In mint state, there are about 6,000 examples graded, with an estimated 10,000-15,000+ examples known in Mint State. Of these graded Mint State examples, roughly 465 have been graded MS65, and another 3 have been graded MS66, with that being the highest grade certified. A fairly large difference in both the Mint State examples graded and known, but still both numbers show a large difference. This might be important to note, as there sure are new pop tops who are currently ungraded, but will eventually get graded by either PCGS and NGC (and this counts for every series, from Draped Bust Half Cents to clad Washington Quarters).
Now let's look at the prices of both these coins. The latest MS65 1901 and 1904 examples graded by PCGS brought the following prices at Heritage sales (as I said, I can't compare with prices on the bourse):
1901: $5,175.00, February 26, 2005 PCGS pop 235/3
1904: $3,450.00. July 28, 2005 PCGS pop 2121/94
And NGC graded examples brought the following prices:
1901: $5,290.00, November 6, 2004 NGC pop 259/0
1904: $3,737.50, July 30, 2005 NGC pop 4498/147
(All these coins are graded in the newer holders)
There are the following differences between 1901 and 1904 in the pops of both grading services (in ms65):
PCGS:
Roughly 1900 coins
NGC:
Roughly 4300 coins
Now let’s do some math:
Total coins minted of the 1901 Philadelphia issue: 111,430
Total coins minted of the 1904 Philadelphia: 6,256,699
Percentage 1901 Twenties minted compared to 1904 Twenties: 111,430/6,256,699 X 100 = 1.78%
Percentage Mint State coins compared to it’s original mintage supposed to be known of the 1901 issue (own estimate): 11,000/111,430 X 100 =9.87%
Percentage Mint State coins compared to it’s original mintage supposed to be known of the
1904 issue (own estimate): 950,000/6,256,699 X 100 = 15.18%
(I’ve chosen these numbers because 85% of the Double Eagles I see for sale in Europe are 1904’s, so there are supposedly many examples hiding in other countries then the US).
Total coins graded MS65 of the 1901 Philadelphia issue compared to it’s mintage: 465/111,430
X 100 = 0.417%
Total coins graded MS65 of the 1904 Philadelphia issue compared to it’s mintage: 5,500/6,256,699 X 100 = 0.088%
Now, this means the following:
-The mintage of the 1901 Philadelphia $20 was about 55 times less than the 1904 issue of the same mint.
-The are more examples of the 1901 $20 graded MS65 than you would expect from it’s mintage, but it still is considerably scarcer in MS65 than the 1904 $20 in MS65, due to the big mintage of the MS65.
-People will probably submit a 1901 faster than a 1904 because of it’s low mintage and Mint State examples graded.
-There are probably many, many Gem MS65 examples of the 1904 currently not graded by either PCGS or NGC.
This leads me to the following conclusions of this little study:
-While the 1901 is less rare in MS65, when looking at percentages, it’s much less available due to it’s low mintage.
-The 1904 is a very overrated coin, even when there are less examples certified in MS65 then you would expect, it doesn’t mean there are many more examples known in or near MS65 grade currently ungraded.
-The 1901 is priced too low for it’s relative rarity in Gem MS.
-People will have a far more scarcer coin in their type sets when they use a different date then the 1904, which is as common as dirt.
-The price difference between a very common Liberty Double eagle (1904) and a scarcer coin (1901) is much smaller then in some other series.
As always, comments are welcome, either in this thread or trough PM.
Dennis
Sources:
-R.S. Yeoman, edited by Kenneth Bresset Official guide book of United States coins, 58th edition 2005
-Q. David Bowers A guide book of Double Eagle gold coins
-Heritage Numismatic auctions Fun Signature sale #336 January 7, 2004
-Thanks to Boiler78 for reviewing the first version
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Comments
A very good report. The 1904 is well known as a super common gold date but yet is relatively scarce compared to the Saints.
What has kept the price down of the other gem dates/mm in the type III $20 Libs is that so few collectors collect these by date and mint marks. Will that change? Who knows.
What would be more interesting is to compare the issues of the 1900's to each other excluding the 1904 and 1904-S. Even the 1900 is another near really common one.
Keep up the good work!
Dennis, how many of the coins you've seen in Europe are slabbed? Are you certain they're real? The reason I ask is because I bought a mint state 1904 in Europe and it was body bagged by NGC as a struck counterfeit. It looked perfect, and weighed perfectly to the hundredth of a gram. So I suspect that possibly because it is one of the most common dates, it is also one of the most commonly counterfeited dates.
Keep up the good work!
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>Interesting post and analysis.
Dennis, how many of the coins you've seen in Europe are slabbed? Are you certain they're real? The reason I ask is because I bought a mint state 1904 in Europe and it was body bagged by NGC as a struck counterfeit. It looked perfect, and weighed perfectly to the hundredth of a gram. So I suspect that possibly because it is one of the most common dates, it is also one of the most commonly counterfeited dates.
Keep up the good work!
Unless you're an authentication expert or you are buying from someone who you trust and is an expert, don't buy raw US gold coins. Even common date Liberty and Saint Gaudens double eagles are being counterfeited.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
but another part of me realized that there are too many unknown factors
to go much further when analyzing relative "value" "rareness" etc...
for example, when coins are melted, hordes are found, known amounts undersea...
all it takes is a bit of chaos to throw all the calculations off.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars
Mintage figures for gold coins don't tell you much about the current surviving populations because so many coins have been melted; especially double eagles. According to Coin World's "Comprehensive Catalog and Encyclopedia of US Coins", mint reports say that by 1954, 39% of all double eagles ever minted had been melted by the Mint (compared to 1% for $3 gold pieces and 1.5% for gold dollars).
The price difference between common and less-common gold coins (especially with-motto Coronet $20s, $10s and $5s) is surprisingly small, but, since so few people collect these coins, it's probably never going to increase.
Check out the Southern Gold Society
i tend to disagree with this statement.
i see other people buying morgans for 10-200 dollars all the time in various grades.
there is not much of a money problem to take it a bit further to buy gold.
also, people can justify it with the difference in melt value if they go that route.
nice morgan 60 bucks. (7 bucks in melt value)
nice half eagle 160 bucks (100 in melt value)
pretty easy choice in my mind if the coins you collect are not super rare high end MS examples.
Please let me know when you start seeing people collect with-motto half eagles by date and mintmark - I'll load up!
I've talked to a lot of gold coin dealers over the past half-dozen years or so, and I've only ever heard of one person who collects with-motto half eagles by date and mintmark - he's putting together an XF/AU set in a Dansco nickel album.
Check out the Southern Gold Society
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If we assume that the 3000+ 1901 $20's in the PCGS pop report are the only ones in existence and that the 235 MS-65 are similarly the only ones in existence, it would take at least 200 collectors of the the series in gem to put any pricing pressure on the generic. Even if it becomes popular to collect the 20th century issues (1900-1907), it will take quite a few players to step up the demand in the issue. Add to that the fact that 1902 and 1905 will limit the number of collector in 65 (currently 1 and 0), and it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the supply of 1901's is pinched by demand at any point in time.
The price difference between common and less-common gold coins (especially with-motto Coronet $20s, $10s and $5s) is surprisingly small, but, since so few people collect these coins, it's probably never going to increase.
I would agree with this.
<< <i>Dennis, how many of the coins you've seen in Europe are slabbed? Are you certain they're real? >>
I don't see many slabbed coins if any, and I'm also sure that there will be fake coins in the bunch too. But I just don't think, when 85% of the Twenties I see is dated 1904, they won't be all fake, especially not with such a common date.
I think you just got unlucky
Dennis
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"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>I did indeed get unlucky. I realize not all of the ones in Europe are fakes, but I'd love to know what percentage of them are.
Well I don't see them that often, but when I see them, I will give all of them a closer look.
Dennis
PS especially the early 20th century ones
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All I ever see in 1904 $20.....
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