Would this 4 point 1815/2 BH upgrade piss you off or what?

Crazy4Coins · March 29, 2005 1:40AM

It does me...Since I looked at This 1815/2 Bust Half in a PCGS 58 holder before the auction at FUN and contemplated bidding on it. Now I wish I would have bumped the bid a little.

Now you'll find it HERE in a NGC MS63 holder. Sorry couldn't link right to the coin.

Now thats an upgrade. I looked at this coin very closely and felt it was a strong 58 but a 4 point upgrade blows my mind.

Maybe I should resubmit all my Bust Halves if my grading is that far off.

I need to go rip something apart right now....I'll be back

Randy

Longacre · March 29, 2005 1:43AM

Are you sure it is the same coin? If so, what do you think accounts for the large increase in grade?

OKbustchaser · March 29, 2005 1:47AM

Yes, it's the same coin...welcome to the wonderful world of TCP grading where wear does not preclude an MS designation.

Jim

Dennis88 · March 29, 2005 1:48AM

Yep, same coin

I hate things like this.... (sometimes

)

coynclecter · March 29, 2005 1:49AM

MS63??, don't know. but that was no AU58, not from the looks of that picture.

Don't get PO'd, either the old seller or the new buyer (to be)got screwed, at least you weren't one of them.

gemini12398 · March 29, 2005 1:50AM

so now how much would it be worth at that grade?

coynclecter · March 29, 2005 1:52AM

HLRC is asking 25,000

Coinhusker1 · March 29, 2005 1:52AM

<< MS63??, don't know. but that was no AU58, not from the looks of that picture.

Don't get PO'd, either the old seller or the new buyer (to be)got screwed, at least you weren't one of them. >>

That's what I was thinking --- that's a damn fine coin for an AU-58. Did anyone see it in person, and if so, was there any obvious rub?

tradedollarnut · March 29, 2005 1:58AM

either the old seller or the new buyer (to be)got screwed,

I don't necessarily agree. The price realized was $11,500 - over 90% of the PCGS price guide value of $12,500 for an MS62. If the buyer bought it as an AU58 and sold it at the value of an MS62, how did he get screwed? If the new buyer likes it as an MS63, what does the grading history matter?

Not that I like the upgrade game, but the pictures certainly appear to show a coin that's significantly better than AU58 by today's standards.

coynclecter · March 29, 2005 2:02AM

Cmon!!!

The middleman ripped 14000 out of a 25000 coin. Someone is getting screwed here.

Forget the grade.

Is it a 11,500 coin or is it a 25,000 coin??? or somewhere in between. If its a 25K coin then the seller got screwed, If it's a 11K coin then the buyer got had, but no way the middleman "earned" his 14000 cut.

Crazy4Coins · March 29, 2005 2:09AM

I had the coin in my hand for at least 30 minutes. My opinion... coin has signs of rub on bust,clasp ends and cheek(slight).The coin doesn't look as good as these pics would suggest.

tradedollarnut · March 29, 2005 2:09AM

Actually, it's most likely a $20,000 coin and in the first instance the holder was worth -$8,500 and in the second it's worth +$5,000.

But if the original seller bought it in the holder, then he can't have been screwed by the negative value of the holder - he got the benefit when he bought it and the detriment when he sold it. It's a wash. And if the new buyer buys it in the current holder, he can't have been screwed because he enjoys all the grade guarantees and benefits of that holder from the get go.

That's not to say that the original seller wouldn't have been better off trying to max out the coin, nor the next buyer have been better off trying to find an undergraded coin to buy direct ...

Nysoto · March 29, 2005 5:31AM

Grade inflation was a topic of discussion at the last annual JRCS meeting, there was no dissension from the group that grade inflation is a reality with the top TPG's. With this specific example, the MS63 grade gets a large bump in price from the AU58-MS62 range, raising the cost of aquiring the coin. The bottom line is, for bust collectors who spend a lifetime forming die variety collections, grade inflation is increasing the cost of building their collections.

tradedollarnut · March 29, 2005 5:34AM

The bottom line is, for bust collectors who spend a lifetime forming die variety collections, grade inflation is increasing the cost of building their collections.

While simultaneously increasing the grade [and thus value] of the coins they already own.

dorkkarl · March 29, 2005 5:36AM

yep. in order for anyone w/ half a brain who can learn how to grade, too bad for you. you, like everyone else, have to subsidize the lazy so-called "collectors" who are too damned lazy to learn how to grade for themselves, & are zombies that only know how to read a couple of digits off a stupid piece o' plastic.

THAT is the overhyping of plastic that i can't stand.

K S

Baley · March 29, 2005 6:49AM

I can accept that it's market graded to 63 money because that's what it's worth; I understand the concept

The problem comes when it's later represented as "really pretty for a 63" and sold as a "crackout candidate"

Comes back AU58

csw · March 29, 2005 7:14AM

I'm with coynclector: someone got screwed.

UncleWiggly · March 29, 2005 7:19AM

I think I'll start collecting problem coins in NCS holders and call it good.

Jerry

OKbustchaser · March 29, 2005 7:21AM

<< I'm with coynclector: someone got screwed.
>>

Not until the pendulum swings back the other way and the new owner suddenly finds out he only has a 58 again. I don't expect this to happen soon, (IMO, regrettably) dealers, investors, and TPC's all have too much vested interest in the status quo.

Jim

coinlieutenant · March 29, 2005 7:33AM

You really cant let that stuff get you down. Buy what you can, learn to play the game if you wish, and educate new collectors when you can.

J

MajorDuty · March 29, 2005 7:47AM

This is exactly what blows me away about the whole grading game. Increase the number at the end of the grade, and the zer0's in regard to the value of the coin increase exponentially for the exact same coin graded earlier, lower. Whether it has a 58 at the end or a 63, it's still the same coin! It is what it is and it looks like it looks regardless of what rating it has received; yet increase the grade and watch the value and profits skyrocket. Blows me away.

Place some coin with no grade on it in front of a crowd of collectors, and lets say it sells for a thousand bucks. Now place that same coin in front of the same bunch of collectors, but this time with some high grade attached to it, and the coin now sells for ten times the cost. WHY!? It's the same coin! I understand having coins slabbed for certification purposes, but I don't really understand the whole number thing, or rather, why some people pay a premium for numbers that are really just opinions. It seems like one should desire the coin or not completely regardless of what grade company A has designated it.

There was a comment in another thread talking about some neat wooden coin holders, and the author remarked about Americans apparent preoccupation with slabbing coins, and that where ever that author was from, they appreciated the coin itself and not some holder that it is in. I tend to agree with that.

I realize many like to build really top rated sets, and that's cool, what ever floats your boat. I think I'm different than most here - I really could not care less about some grade; I'm drawn to the coins themselves and not the plastic holders they are in, or the numbers attached to them. Pop schmop.

MrEureka · March 29, 2005 9:11AM

It doesn't piss me off in the least.

You either buy a coin as a collector, an investor or a dealer. If you're a collector, plastic shouldn't matter and you would have bought the coin at the lower price. (And if you didn't like it at the lower price, you're certainly not going to like it at the higher price.) If you're an investor, opportunities past are irrelevant. All you should care about is what you'll be able to get for the "63" when you sell it. And if you're a dealer, be glad we have a system that allows so many upgrades and double-ups.

roadrunner · March 29, 2005 11:15AM

The topic of AU58 or MS62 has been discussed a lot as of late.
Here's another example that might add to the discussion.

Here's an 1803 half dime that recently went from NGC AU58 to NGC
MS62. It sold in the HNAI Palm Beach sale for over $14,000. How do I know? I owned the coin for over 18 months as an AU58.

1803 half dime NGC AU58 to MS62

roadrunner

Crazy4Coins · March 29, 2005 11:34AM

It's not so much the fact that I missed out on a opportunity to score a nice upgrade as the fact that there was such a big grade swing,especially on a coin that commands such big increases in value between points.I am a collector and buy coins that I plan on keeping for the long term.Fortunately I was able to view this coin in person and felt there was enough rub that kept it at AU58. The problem I have is that a lot of the better Bust Halves coming to market right now are being sold in auctions and all I have to go by is the images cataloged by the auction company. Of course most of the images tend to look better than the coin in hand does. I am not in a position to travel to every show and inspect the coin in person. I have to bid by mail or the internet. I don't want to pay 64 money for a coin that someone else just upgraded from 58 and not be able to return it because of the auction house policy if I'm not happy with it. So do you take your chances like this and hope when the coin arrives its a true 64 or not just buy at all unless you can put your hands on the coin, but then I wouldn't get to far with my set.

How does the grading guarantee work on something like this?

Randy

roadrunner · March 29, 2005 11:43AM

I think the grading guarantee usually works like this on coins described above:

"yup, that's a MS64 (or MS62) alright. Return the coin back to the owner. It's graded correctly. We must have been too conservative last time we saw it.....(chorus of chuckles in the background)."

roadrunner

CalGold · March 30, 2005 2:33AM

We've seen a buch of threads like these lately. Not sure what it proves other than when grading coins experts may not always agree. Just too hard to tell if a coin with weak or uneven strike, friction, and toning is MS or AU. Same thing happens in trying to determine whether some 19th century coins are proofs or pl business strikes. Coins have moved from PR holders to MS holders and vice versa. Been happening for years. Not gonna change any time soon. The problem is that with the advent of TPG its easy for us to expect or demand perfection in grading, but it just cannot be that way.

So what happened here is that some bidders looked at the half in the 58 holder and said, wait a minute this sure looks MS to me and they bid accordingly. As TDN points out the coin in the 58 holder sold for neear the PCGS price guide retail 62 price. So the winning bidder took a risk and was rewardedwith a big upgrade score. Goody for him. At least one underbidder also saw it as MS. Could it just be that they were smarter than everyone else?

No one is forcing anyone to buy it for his asking price. One would think that the market for this variety in 63 at $25K is populated by specialists in the series who have seen their share of 58s, 62s and 63s. Either they like it as a 63 at that price or they don't.

As for poor RR and his half-dime, he is not a novice. Either he was OK with it as a strong 58 perhaps worth an MS price or he was just worn out trying to get it upgraded and threw in towel. Doesn't really matter if he bought it as an AU coin and sold it at a profit. Now its up to others to decide if they agree with the new grade.

CG

Crazy4Coins · March 30, 2005 3:18AM

A lot of good views on this topic. Thanks.

The whole issue on grade variations likes this just make it tough to buy a coin without personally inspecting it first. How many great coins and opportunities do you have to pass up because thats not an option? Wasn't that the one of the purposes of certification, so you could buy sight unseen?

Randy

rhedden · March 30, 2005 3:26AM

Here's a good question: If one of you won this coin in the auction, and you submitted it to the PCGS Collector's Club or to NGC directly, do you think YOU would have gotten the upgrade to MS-63, or do you think it would come back AU-58?

Crazy4Coins · March 30, 2005 4:07AM

That is a very good question. I wonder

dorkkarl · March 30, 2005 4:19AM

<< It doesn't piss me off in the least. You either buy a coin as a collector, an investor or a dealer. If you're a collector, plastic shouldn't matter and you would have bought the coin at the lower price. >>

you totally missed the point! the point is, there are enough brain-dead idiots out there who THINK they are collectors & stupidly buy OVERGRADED SLABS, driving up the coin market (which is * HOT * HOT * HOT * ), putting coins out of reach of collectors who actually have half a brain & want to buy coins at the proper grades!

THAT is what I hate - not the slab itself, but the way a slab allow stupid people to invade the market & drive up prices for everyone.

K S

MacCrimmon · March 30, 2005 4:49AM

<< Not sure what it proves other than when grading coins experts may not always agree. Just too hard to tell if a coin with weak or uneven strike, friction, and toning is MS or AU. >>

Calgold, it is not difficult to ascertain the slightest friction on a coin (you do need experience, and a good mentor). Any grader at the top TPGs who can't separate true AU58s from MS should be fired.

However, what we are discussing here are experienced dealers who understand the "odds" of a "market grade" going their way, and so they roll the dice on the upgrade shot. PCGS has been quite clear that Classics grading will have the eye-appealing 58s given the upgrade NOD; SOMETIMES! And, there are more than enough sheep waiting to be sheared because of blind faith and laziness......so be it.

CalGold · March 30, 2005 5:37AM

I do not necessarily disagree with MacCrimmon that someone with their hand on pulse of how PCGS is currently grading 58/MS liners in a certain series can play the crack out game, and in fact that may be what happened with this coin or with RR's half dime. And maybe those coins are now "overgraded." On the other hand, maybe not.

Does PCGS make mistakes? Yeah. Do you think they flippantly put capped bust coins in $25,000 MS63 holders?

I just see too many knee jerk reactions on this board whenever an upgrade is unveiled--whether it be from 58 to 62 or from one MS grade to a higher grade. That is the grading game. Who is to say that the first grade was correct and the second grade incorrect?

And of course, we constantly see the stream of moaning and groaning from forum members about how PCGS woefully undergraded their coins. Those people have no problem sending them back in for a shot at a higher grade--which if finally obtained is of course the "correct" grade and not an overgrade, right?

CG

mercurydimeguy · March 30, 2005 6:09AM

Angry with the graders lately myself

mozin · March 30, 2005 9:24AM

Most of us agree that AU58 is a MS63 coin that has barely detectable rub, that is the only difference. It is understandable that PCGS found the rub and NGC missed it; happens often enough. Besides, NGC has graded almost five times as many 1815s as MS compared to PCGS. This coin in discussion did sell for MS62 money so I expect the consignor is very pleased. Whether or not Harry L can get his asking price of $25,000 remains to be seen. He only lists the coin as 2A, not 1A. I think $19,000 is more in line for such a MS63 holdered 1815 and Harry will certainly make a huge profit.

This thread reinforces my long ago decision to never buy MS Bust material. I examine many MS Busties whenever I get the chance but usually put them down thinking I saw something that led me to say AU. The AU58 grade Busties are great looking coins and I would much rather have 3 or 4 of them instead of one MS63 for the dollar output. I know many serious Bust Half collectors that share my feelings.

roadrunner · March 30, 2005 10:21AM

Cal gold, you don't have to feel sorry for "poor RR." I sold the coin for what it was to me and 95% of the dealers out there. I was quite happy to make $3500 on the coin. While the next owner made a lot more than that, they took a far greater risk than I did. My only point is that the coin is now in an MS62 holder and has not changed any. It is still cleaned, rubbed, and has some serious marks. The new owner has decided what it all means to him or her. 15 years ago, coins like this may have been 'bagged." The standards on cleaning were far tougher. There are so few real MS draped bust coins out there, that the owners of MS62 and MS63 coins with essentially full luster and no rub must be quite happy with their coins.

roadrunner

astrorat · March 30, 2005 10:31AM

What's to be mad about? It is a great example of market grading, pure and simple. The coin has wear but has the market value of a 63. The coin has found its final (slab) resting place. That's what happens when you value the plastic more than the coin.

There are a lot of 58s out there in 62-63 holders . . . never to be cracked out.

Lane

MrEureka · March 30, 2005 10:47AM

It is a great example of market grading, pure and simple. The coin has wear but has the market value of a 63.

Lane - You make it sound like PCGS graders consider the market value of 63's before grading the coin. They don't.

In fact, I doubt that many PCGS graders even bother to follow the market.

Edited to add an obviously missing word.

MrEureka · March 30, 2005 10:53AM

Most of us agree that AU58 is a MS63 coin that has barely detectable rub, that is the only difference.

With respect to Capped Bust halves? Not true. Most TPG-graded 60-63's have rub easily visible to the naked eye. Call the standard right or wrong, but it is the prevailing standard. Period.

CalGold · March 30, 2005 10:53AM

<< The coin has wear but has the market value of a 63. >>

Has it been conclusively established that the coin has wear? Does NGC think it is OK to slab circulated coins as MS?

Is the wear a product of circulation or is it friction from an other source, or is that a distinction without a difference? On that note, lots of MS large coins coming from mint sealed bags have "rub"--Morgans, Saints eg. Didn't many capped bust halves live in bags and get moved around in inter-bank commerce, as they were the largest silver coins being minted at the time?

CG

astrorat · March 30, 2005 10:59AM

<< It is a great example of market grading, pure and simple. The coin has wear but has the market value of a 63.

Lane - You make it sound like PCGS graders consider the market value of 63's before grading the coin. They don't.

In fact, I doubt that many PCGS even bother to follow the market. >>

Andy-

What I am referring to is the basis of market grading. If I gave the impression that graders are browsing the CDN when they grade, then that is not what I meant to do. What I am saying is that the market for certain series, like bust material, allows for coins with slight wear to be priced as 63s. Otherwise, the coins would not be in 63 holders. That is market grading.

Lane

roadrunner · March 30, 2005 10:59AM

Most MS63 bust halves have significant high point rubbing on both sides. But they also often have full luster fields which is not what one usually finds on coins that circulated for long periods. However you slice it, they sort of look mint state...but have lots of rubbing.
One usually has to go to MS66 or MS67 bust halves to avoid obvious rub. But even at this lofty level, most coins lingering on the market have rub too. Say it ain't so Joe!

It just so happens I'd love to buy a MS65 bust half (NGC or PCGS) that is really mint state. I'd be happy to pay a minimum of 20% over bid for such a coin. Fully struck, zero rub, nice original toning, bold cartwheel.

roadrunner

astrorat · March 30, 2005 11:02AM

<< 

<< The coin has wear but has the market value of a 63. >>

Has it been conclusively established that the coin has wear? Does NGC think it is OK to slab circulated coins as MS?

Is the wear a product of circulation or is it friction from an other source, or is that a distinction without a difference? On that note, lots of MS large coins coming from mint sealed bags have "rub"--Morgans, Saints eg. Didn't many capped bust halves live in bags and get moved around in inter-bank commerce, as they were the largest silver coins being minted at the time?

CG >>

NGC believes the coin has the current market value of a 63. Whether or not somebody chooses to use the euphemism of "cabinet friction", "rub", or something else is really irrelevant. NGC has priced the coin.

Lane

MrEureka · March 30, 2005 11:08AM

What I am saying is that the market for certain series, like bust material, allows for coins with slight wear to be priced as 63s. Otherwise, the coins would not be in 63 holders. That is market grading.

Closer, but no cigar. The market does not decide to price very slightly worn coins as 63's. Instead, TPG's decide to CALL those coins 63's. Only AFTER the standard is defined can the market set an appropriate price.

astrorat · March 30, 2005 11:12AM

Don't be so stingy with the cigar yet. You are correct that the market does not price 58s as 63s, rather the TPGs do. The TPGs price coins, they do not grade them. That is the essence of market grading.

Lane

P.S. Your turn

MrEureka · March 30, 2005 11:13AM

The TPGs price coins, they do not grade them.

Lane - That's just plain not the way it works. Obviously, if you think about it.

astrorat · March 30, 2005 11:20AM

Actually, that is the way market grading works. I guess we will just have to disagree as to their approach, but I think we agree on the end result.

Lane

mozin · March 30, 2005 2:17PM

<< Most of us agree that AU58 is a MS63 coin that has barely detectable rub, that is the only difference.

With respect to Capped Bust halves? Not true. Most TPG-graded 60-63's have rub easily visible to the naked eye. Call the standard right or wrong, but it is the prevailing standard. Period. >>

OK, so we are arguing about "barely detectable rub" versus "easily visible to the naked eye" on Bust Halves. Some of us have better eyes than others and I was trying to accomodate more people. My point was simply that I believe most slabbed MS Bust coins have some rub. Now, do you agree or disagree?

Would this 4 point 1815/2 BH upgrade piss you off or what?

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