Novice Numismatist needs help

Newmismatist · September 24, 2003 3:31PM

As some of you know, Novice Numismatist (NN for short) has put together a killer set of Proof Lincoln Memorial Cents (1959-2003) 36 of his 46 coins are Top Pop coins with none higher. He now has an opportunity to purchase another Top Pop coin from a reputable nationally recognized coin dealer (a PCGS 2003-S Pr70DCam for $995).

NN's problem is this; In the past he purchased all of his Top Pop coins at auction - there was a real underbidder and NN feels comfortable knowing that he has little downside in his Top Pop LM proof set. The set, including each coin, when he "purchased" it and his cost is shown below (plus the Pop for the coin he purchased, and how many are graded higher). As you can see, buying this 2003-S Pr70 DCam will add another "Top Pop/none higher" coin to his set.

His dilemma: Should he change tactics and buy this coin from a dealer instead of waiting for one to come up at auction?

He'll no longer have the comfort of an under-bidder. Whenever possible, NN has kept track of those underbidders, so he knows he can always offer the coins to them if he wants to sell - he feels he has little downside using this purchasing strategy. (I personally think he's maybe a bit optimistic on this point, but you never know.)

If the answer is YES, NN will use some more of his large (but getting smaller) inheritence to buy this coin and add it to his set.

Also, if any of our helpful forum members know where the following top pop coins are and how much they would cost, NN would be Verrry interested:
1959, 1964 (a POP 1 coin!) , 1987-S, 1988-S, 1990-S, 1998-S (a POP 1 coin!), 1999-S (a POP 1 coin!), 2000-S (a POP 1 coin!) & 2002-S.

Once he completes all the top pops in this set he's going to start another set, with the same goals (Top Pop coins, PCGS only & collected by a lot of people - he's debating between MS Lincoln Memorials or State Quarters. (NN would welcome any advice our forum members can give him for his future collecting adventures.)

Here's his current set: (Apologies to those who've already seen this stunning set in a previous forum post)

Grading Purchase Top Pop/
Date Grade Service Cost Date # Available # Better

1959 Pr68DCam PCGS $920 4/30/03 Pr69DCam/3 3
1960 LD Pr69DCam PCGS $3,910 7/30/02 Pr69DCam/9 0
1960 SD Pr68DCam PCGS $2,530 7/30/02 Pr68DCam/10 0
1961 Pr69DCam PCGS $1,782 9/17/02 Pr69DCam/ 8 0
1962 Pr69DCam PCGS $1,207 1/11/03 Pr69DCam/ 29 0
1963 Pr70DCam PCGS $39,100 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 0
1964 Pr69DCam PCGS $201 1/13/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
1968-S Pr69DCam PCGS $3,795 11/23/02 Pr69DCam/ 22 0
1969-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,150 5/3/03 Pr69DCam/ 35 0
1970-SLD Pr69DCam PCGS $3,220 11/23/02 Pr69DCam/ 33 0
1970-SSD Pr68DCam PCGS $4,600 1/11/03 Pr68DCam/ 11 0
1971-S Pr69DCam PCGS $14,950 7/29/03 Pr69DCam/ 4 0
1972-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,006 9/20/03 Pr69DCam/ 50 0
1973-S Pr70DCam PCGS $6,325 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 4 0
1974-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,265 1/11/03 Pr69DCam/ 145 0
1975-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,150 7/29/02 Pr69DCam/ 84 0
1976-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,207 7/29/02 Pr69DCam/ 65 0
1977-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,565 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 11 0
1978-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,680 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 10 0
1979-STy1Pr70DCam PCGS $10,925 3/23/03 Pr70DCam/ 9 0
1979-STy2Pr70DCam PCGS $2,760 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 23 0
1980-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,680 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 16 0
1981-STy1Pr70DCam PCGS $8,050 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 8 0
1981-STy2Pr69DCam PCGS $718 3/3/03 Pr69DCam/ 65 0
1982-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,220 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 12 0
1983-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,725 11/23/02 Pr70DCam/ 25 0
1984-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,380 9/17/02 Pr70DCam/ 32 0
1985-S Pr70DCam PCGS $575 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 34 0
1986-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,955 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 26 0
1987-S P69DCam PCGS $87 1/13/03 Pr70DCam/ 5 5
1988-S P69DCam PCGS $37 11/25/02 Pr70DCam/ 19 19
1989-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,380 9/17/02 Pr70DCam/ 33 0
1990-S P69DCam PCGS $80 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 7 7
1991-S Pr70DCam PCGS $603 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 28 0
1992-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,380 3/23/03 Pr70DCam/ 28 0
1993-S Pr70DCam PCGS $632 3/1/03 Pr70DCam/ 49 0
1994-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,955 11/23/02 Pr70DCam/ 23 0
1995-S Pr70DCam PCGS $2,530 11/23/02 Pr70DCam/ 12 0
1996-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,610 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 32 0
1997-S Pr70DCam PCGS $356 8/6/03 Pr70DCam/ 14 0
1998-S Pr69DCam PCGS $36 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
1999-S Pr69DCam PCGS $36 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
2000-S Pr69DCam PCGS $31 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
2001-S Pr69DCam PCGS $57 2/23/02 Pr69DCam/894 0
2002-S Pr69DCam PCGS $42 10/15/02 Pr70DCam/ 6 6
2003-S Pr69DCam PCGS $26 7/22/03 Pr70DCam/ 10 10
Total Cost (thus far) $141,429

SarasotaFrank · September 24, 2003 3:38PM

according to many, the key to the hobby is collecting what you enjoy. For that amount of money, you might have done some mighty things in other areas of collecting, but if it's what you enjoy, enjoy it.

fountainheadgold · September 24, 2003 3:38PM

Wow Nice set, I advise bartering with Coin dealer for a better price and let him know your adjective

lordmarcovan · September 24, 2003 4:03PM

What SarasotaFrank said.

I personally will not pay more than $100 for a coin made in my own lifetime, which pretty much puts me out of the market for PCGS PR70 DCAM's, although I did pick some up off Teletrade in 1998 before Registry madness caught on. (And don't get me wrong- I have played in the Registry and found it fun, but there is certainly an element of madness to it.)

Just my humble opinion, but if you buy 70's, you're buying the holder, period. The difference between 69 DCAM and 70 DCAM is so infinitesimal (and often invisible, at least to me), that it just isn't worth the exponential premiums.

However, if one simply MUST have Top Pop coins, well, then...you gotta do what you gotta do.

stman · September 24, 2003 4:31PM

Can't hold back this reply and I usually don't give input on these type of threads..... you said it was a large inheritance that is getting smaller? Well all the money spent on these other "pop tops" or top pops..... what the heck difference is another $995.00?

puff · September 24, 2003 4:33PM

You got to be kidding me?

relayer · September 24, 2003 6:02PM

Come back in 20 years and see if FOM is correct and these have skyrocketed in value, or if they have become pop 539/0's

RYK · September 24, 2003 6:38PM

I think this is a hypothetical question, inspired by some classic vs. modern debating from two other threads earlier this week.

Of course, not!

Conder101 · September 24, 2003 7:50PM

Very nice set. To me worth about $300 or so.

snake · September 24, 2003 10:21PM

I have a PF70 2000 S if interested shot me a price PM.Snake

toothpuller · September 24, 2003 10:29PM

I find this to be a fascinating thesis and hope that you continue to develop this outstanding collection.

Even though the majority is voting no, NN must buy the 2003-S at any reasonable cost. Isn't that how top registry sets are put together?

tjkillian · September 24, 2003 10:47PM

No, I would cut your losses and just be happy with a PR-69DCam as the difference between them is only the whim of the grader at the time.

Tom

CarlWohlforth · September 24, 2003 11:03PM

As to what to collect next once you have all the highest grade proof Memorial Lincolns... Why not move back in time with proof Lincolns?

tradedollarnut · September 24, 2003 11:24PM

The title of the thread says it all.

Louis · September 24, 2003 11:32PM

I can't fathom spending that kind of money on that collection. Especially considering the Early Commemorative set that could be put together with those funds. To each his own I guess.

MrEureka · September 24, 2003 11:46PM

Newmismatist - Given that you posted your message at 1:31 AM, I'm reasonably confident that I know what inspired this thread.

tradedollarnut · September 24, 2003 11:47PM

heh heh heh. got me!

BillF · September 24, 2003 11:53PM

Hmmmm... What's the cost to get a 2003 Lincoln Memorial graded (or actually regraded)? $30.00 ?

If that's correct, then why not instead crack-out the -69 and keep resubmitting it until it grades higher? He'll get what, roughly 30 chances for a higher grade and still save money.

Stuart · September 24, 2003 11:57PM

NN will use some more of his large (but getting smaller) inheritence to buy this coin and add it to his set.

Newmismatist: I am troubled by your above quote. I hope that NN is not squandering a significant inheritance (~$150K !!) that could be used to form a core investment towards future financial security, and perhaps independence by purchasing (investing?) in high end Lincoln Cents.

I hope that NN is in love with them and will enjoy them for many years, however that is neither a diversified collection, nor a diversified numismatic investment portfolio.

In my opinion it is an extremely high risk move.

puff · September 25, 2003 12:05AM

<< <i>NN will use some more of his large (but getting smaller) inheritence to buy this coin and add it to his set.

Newmismatist: I am troubled by your above quote. I hope that NN is not squandering a significant inheritance (~$150K !!) that could be used to form a core investment towards future financial security, and perhaps independence by purchasing (investing?) in high end Lincoln Cents.

I hope that NN is in love with them and will enjoy them for many years, however that is neither a diversified collection, nor a diversified numismatic investment portfolio.

In my opinion it is an extremely high risk move. >>

"STUART"....... THAT IS AN ABSOLUTELY "GREAT" POINT!!!!!

snake · September 25, 2003 1:13AM

Just what if he is correct and makes a killing of his investment.Oh how I enjoy spending the other man money.You all are a good group of people and I am sure you are correct in your on right.Have a great DAY!Snake

Newmismatist · September 25, 2003 9:59AM

NN has decided to follow the advice of the majority of the forum members and pass on the 2003-S for now - (Of course there's always that future auction).

He would apprecuiated pricing info on those other 9 coins in top pop LM proofs if anyone has that info available.
Coins are: 1959, 1964, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1998, 1999, 2000 & 2002

lathmach · September 25, 2003 10:05AM

<< <i>Very nice set. To me worth about $300 or so. >>

You'd really pay that much? Man I wouldn't.

Ray

Coinosaurus · September 25, 2003 10:39AM

Coinosaurus looked at that 141K figure and got very nervous. Coinosaurus recommends the following exercise:

* Find a like minded LM collector and put all the coins in a pile
* Turn all the coins over
* Without looking at the tags, divide up the 69s, 70s, CAMs & DCAMs
* Flip 'em back over and see how you stacked up against the professionals

OK, if you pass that test, Coinosaurus now recommends the following:

* Pick 5 coins at random out of the set and sell them.

If you can get your dough out of them, Coinosaurus will shut up and admit that you might actually know what you are doing. Until then, Coinosaurus is very nervous about you putting that kind of dough into LM cents, even though he thinks that the idea of having all the highest graded LMs is kewl at some level.

Conder101 · September 25, 2003 6:27PM

<< <i><< Very nice set. To me worth about $300 or so. >>

You'd really pay that much? Man I wouldn't. >>

Ray, I'm talking $300 for the SET not the 2003-S. There are 50 or so pieces listed including the 70-S small date. $300 would about $6 each.

tradedollarnut · September 25, 2003 11:23PM

If the balance of the set has the same divergence in quality between the insert and the coin as the 1963, $6 a coin should be about right!

LAWMAN · September 26, 2003 8:46AM

Wish I could be a fly on the wall in 20 years and see how this one turns out. Anybody know somebody who bought Impressionist paintings for garage sale money in Europe back when? Those guys couldn't give their paintings away for many years. Of course, they weren't turning out 50 billion of them per year.

Novice Numismatist needs help

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