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You have 100 Million and ten years: Could you corner the 1909-S VDB Market?
braddick
Posts: 23,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
Let's say to win a bet you have to own 90% or greater of all the known 1909-S VDB cents out there. You have a single decade to complete this mission along with $100,000,000.00 to do so with (better budget carefully...).
Could this be accomplished? What would be the strongest impediments?
I'd think you would want to conduct this experiment in secret, yet could you do so?
How would you go about getting this wager won?
Could this be accomplished? What would be the strongest impediments?
I'd think you would want to conduct this experiment in secret, yet could you do so?
How would you go about getting this wager won?
peacockcoins
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That took about 2 minutes for me to come up with......sorry, stupid.??
Yes you could.
1st, how would you know if you achieved the goal? Not 435K as many are gone. Based on how many are G4 and below, somehow, someway, they circulated long and hard, and got lost, etc.
If you troll the lower end, you will soak up the cheaper ones, driving out the "common people" til it is just MS64 and up, who are owned by those who are more motivated by possession than money. Buy a group, especially of the top pops for control.
BUT, here is how you will make it:
Announce you have 200,000 of them, show pictures of piles of coins, piles of slabs, have reliable people go look at your stash, roll around in it, etc. Later, insider information gets to places like Heritage, PCGS, CAC that the eccentric owner of 1/2 the rarest Lincoln Cent ever made, has (insert incurable disease) and they will be auctioned off over a 1 year period, no reserve after his death. Many of those who were holding, see the steady run up, will dump their coins, knowing in 12 months, a BOATLOAD will be hitting the market, prices will drop like a Led Zeppelin, and they KNOW that they can sell theirs NOW before the word gets out, and buy back a better one for 1/2 that amount, including a shot at one of 17 of the top 23.
Execute buying frenzy using facades of fake companies, and Top Out Mount Everest.
I do know a person that send 1/4 of the total mintage (IIRC, might have been more) of a particular date proof coin of a SA country, where, how, do not know, the person had gotten them, I do not know.
The dealer wrestled with wiping out so many at once, but when silver went north of, maybe $45 a few years ago, they were melted,
Related, I read a book around 1982, about Morgan Dollars, after the big melt of 79 - 80, where a dealer empirically began deriving surviving populations for various dates / mm. This was started because he was finding that certain date / mm that were not rare, but were not common, were a lot harder to find than should have been. He would put offers out on (whatever the wire service was back then) cruise shows, etc. trying to see if the current SELL price really was valid or if it was such a thin marker for particular ones, that the REAL price should be much higher, due to a higher proportion of coins hitting the smelter. It was not the 1921 type coins, since scads of them went, it was the coins that MAYBE were worth 25X face in BU when a 1921 was worth $5, until they all were worth $38 in melt. So those coins, saved from previous melts, suddenly dislodged from years of holdings, albums, etc. and became melt fodder.
IIRC, he made a lot of money with his empirically derived "real" values for oddball dates / mm
I think you could.
1st, how would you know if you achieved the goal? Not 435K as many are gone. Based on how many are G4 and below, somehow, someway, they circulated long and hard, and got lost, etc.
If you troll the lower end, you will soak up the cheaper ones, driving out the "common people" til it is just MS64 and up, who are owned by those who are more motivated by possession than money. Buy a group, especially of the top pops for control.
BUT, here is how you will make it:
Announce you have 200,000 of them, show pictures of piles of coins, piles of slabs, have reliable people go look at your stash, roll around in it, etc. Later, insider information gets to places like Heritage, PCGS, CAC that the eccentric owner of 1/2 the rarest Lincoln Cent ever made, has (insert incurable disease) and they will be auctioned off over a 1 year period, no reserve after his death. Many of those who were holding, see the steady run up, will dump their coins, knowing in 12 months, a BOATLOAD will be hitting the market, prices will drop like a Led Zeppelin, and they KNOW that they can sell theirs NOW before the word gets out, and buy back a better one for 1/2 that amount, including a shot at one of 17 of the top 23.
Execute buying frenzy using facades of fake companies, and Top Out Mount Everest.
I do know a person that send 1/4 of the total mintage (IIRC, might have been more) of a particular date proof coin of a SA country, where, how, do not know, the person had gotten them, I do not know.
The dealer wrestled with wiping out so many at once, but when silver went north of, maybe $45 a few years ago, they were melted,
Related, I read a book around 1982, about Morgan Dollars, after the big melt of 79 - 80, where a dealer empirically began deriving surviving populations for various dates / mm. This was started because he was finding that certain date / mm that were not rare, but were not common, were a lot harder to find than should have been. He would put offers out on (whatever the wire service was back then) cruise shows, etc. trying to see if the current SELL price really was valid or if it was such a thin marker for particular ones, that the REAL price should be much higher, due to a higher proportion of coins hitting the smelter. It was not the 1921 type coins, since scads of them went, it was the coins that MAYBE were worth 25X face in BU when a 1921 was worth $5, until they all were worth $38 in melt. So those coins, saved from previous melts, suddenly dislodged from years of holdings, albums, etc. and became melt fodder.
IIRC, he made a lot of money with his empirically derived "real" values for oddball dates / mm
This is completely a fantasy, nobody is going to believe you have 200,000 without someone verifying it and looking at it. Think of the Binion collection, he had very deep pockets and acquired 100k silver dollars. Even if only half of them were not lost you would still need 240k so it would be hard to convince people you had 200 of the 240 remaing 09 S VDB.
I'm busy buying Pogue coins.
Then, if you go by the minted number, that is not correct as it is doubtful 100% survived.
That said, if one went after them, one should quietly go after the low hanging fruit of availability, then put out some feelers to draw some others out.
Then put out ads.
Then, follow up with ads that state the this is the chance to sell for xxx% of what the coin WAS valued at and that soon, a massive sale will crash the prices, so best to sell now at the top of the market.
That all said, I don't think 90% is doable but I do think a lot of the "I won't sell" WILL sell if the price is 3x, 4x, 5x "value"
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Another problem is that there may be additional hundreds of thousands of "survivors" if you count the plentiful number of fakes making the rounds of the marketplace and residing in old-time collections.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
That's what I thought of too!
Whatever you are, be a good one. ---- Abraham Lincoln
$100,000,000/3650 days =$27,397 day spent for 100 pieces or two rolls.
Impossible task since one would not have nearly enough money to garner the required number to corner the market.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
$100M spent in an attempt to acquire ten coins over 10 years might work if one is discrete about it. Help from dealers who are connected to '94-S dime owners would be necessary.
I'm thinking an offer of $10M for an authentic 1894-S dime would be hard for an owner to walk away from.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
And here I thought I had 100,000,010 years.
Same...
8 Reales Madness Collection
Then lets say you're successful at owning all 5. Now selling them you will lose money because you won't be able to benefit from the same scarcity you created when you bought your 5th one.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870