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How common is cracking really? (How inaccurate are the Pop Reports?)
BryceM
Posts: 11,851 ✭✭✭✭✭
It's fun to ask a question that nobody knows the answer to.
I'm just looking for a ballpark idea. I'm most familiar with Peace Dollars. I assume that the most commonly cracked-out coins would be those sitting on the value fence between a few hundred dollars and a few thousand dollars. For example, there is a HUGE jump between a MS64 ($1,150) and an MS65 ($24,500) in the 1928-S issue. Trying to correlate value with pop reports isn't straighforward at all. The 1934-S is regarded as the key to the series in MS grades, but the pop reports would indicate that they really aren't all that rare, at least when compared to other condition rarities in the series. People do have a fasciniation with keys though.
My gut feeling is that the pop reports for the keys and "upper atmosphere" coins are pretty inflated. I don't suppose most crackout artists return their labels, but I'm sure some do. Does the information in the pop reports become less valuable over the decades as the same coins get put through the mill again and again? I'm sure there's lots of back-and-forth between the major TPGs too.
If you consider the case of a 1928-S in a MS64+ label (with bean if you'd like), there is ENORMOUS incentive to play the game. Say you had ten such coins. If you submitted them each 5 times you'd almost certainly get one or two bumped up. That would pretty easily cover the cost of the 50 submissions, even if a few came back as 63, 64, or even bagged.
I'm sure this is old hat to most of you, but it's interesting to think about. Personally, I'm content to enjoy the coins without too many games. My day job is interesting enough. I do like to understand the larger picture though. I also like to feel like I'm getting a fair shake at purchase and sale time.
I'm just looking for a ballpark idea. I'm most familiar with Peace Dollars. I assume that the most commonly cracked-out coins would be those sitting on the value fence between a few hundred dollars and a few thousand dollars. For example, there is a HUGE jump between a MS64 ($1,150) and an MS65 ($24,500) in the 1928-S issue. Trying to correlate value with pop reports isn't straighforward at all. The 1934-S is regarded as the key to the series in MS grades, but the pop reports would indicate that they really aren't all that rare, at least when compared to other condition rarities in the series. People do have a fasciniation with keys though.
My gut feeling is that the pop reports for the keys and "upper atmosphere" coins are pretty inflated. I don't suppose most crackout artists return their labels, but I'm sure some do. Does the information in the pop reports become less valuable over the decades as the same coins get put through the mill again and again? I'm sure there's lots of back-and-forth between the major TPGs too.
If you consider the case of a 1928-S in a MS64+ label (with bean if you'd like), there is ENORMOUS incentive to play the game. Say you had ten such coins. If you submitted them each 5 times you'd almost certainly get one or two bumped up. That would pretty easily cover the cost of the 50 submissions, even if a few came back as 63, 64, or even bagged.
I'm sure this is old hat to most of you, but it's interesting to think about. Personally, I'm content to enjoy the coins without too many games. My day job is interesting enough. I do like to understand the larger picture though. I also like to feel like I'm getting a fair shake at purchase and sale time.
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Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
But are quite valuable for rare coins, that have small pops.
All the 1796 and 97 halves are locatable and mostly in strong collector hands.
Same for the 1801, 1802, 1803 sm 3( in AU or better), 1806/9, and all MS 1815/2's.
Also, MS 66 and better CBH's.
Caveat: applies to PCGS garded coins
Eric
Or Steve Contursi ...
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
When a 28-s peace dollar is stickered in 64 there is a 98% chance it would not sticker as a 65.
The likelyhood of there being as many cac'd coins of a particular date/grade as listed in the pop report needs to be lowered as many coins are cracked and get upgraded (though will not sticker)
<< <i>Even CAC pop reports are innacurate- actually- its not as bad
When a 28-s peace dollar is stickered in 64 there is a 98% chance it would not sticker as a 65.
The likelyhood of there being as many cac'd coins of a particular date/grade as listed in the pop report needs to be lowered as many coins are cracked and get upgraded (though will not sticker) >>
98%...where did that statistic come from?
The controversy surrounding the issue is a generator of interest. A good illustration of what is perceived as bad, can actually be a positive for the hobby.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Lafayette Grading Set
<< <i>98% chance it won't grade up to 65??? That means there's a 1 in 50 chance it will. Like I said above, pay for 50 subs and pocket the thousands you have left over. I fail to see how you argue this is a reason to not play the crackout game. Even assuming your statistics are based on something it still works. >>
My number has no backing to it only the belief in the system known as CAC.
The nature of the green sticker is to separate higher quality coins from lower quality.
In practice:
According to the CAC pop reports, there are 3,681 CAC'ed with motto ST's in ms65.
My "98%" claim is that if all 3,681 were regraded as ms66 and sent to CAC for stickering, LESS THAN 2% AT BEST (my opinion) would sticker as an ms66.