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A Collector's Greed: Post your answer...

mcarney1173mcarney1173 Posts: 909 ✭✭✭✭✭
in U.S. Coin Forum
There are three items on a table:

PCGS G4 1916 D Mercury Dime
Two Cardboard Boxes

You are told that the three items are:

PCGS G4 1916 D Mercury Dime
PCGS MS67 FB 1916 D Mercury Dime
Empty Cardboard Box

You are told to take 1 of them (boxes are sealed and you cannot lift them up)

Would you take the G4 or risk a 50/50 chance of picking the MS67.


Please vote and respond with a more elaborate answer. Thanks

My PCGS Set Registry Profile

«1

Comments

  • commoncents05commoncents05 Posts: 10,084 ✭✭✭
    No guts, no glory.

    -Paul
    Many Quality coins for sale at http://www.CommonCentsRareCoins.com
  • renomedphysrenomedphys Posts: 3,599 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'd take a 50/50 shot on THAT coin ANY day! image

    Empty Nest Collection
    Matt’s Mattes

  • dohdoh Posts: 6,457 ✭✭✭
    I'm not sure it's greed, but it's risk/reward. Who cares about a good 16-D? It's totally worth the chance at a 67FB. If the choices were a PCGS XF45 1916-D, the 67FB and an empty box I might have to think twice because an XF45 is still an awfully nice coin...
    Positive BST transactions with: too many names to list! 36 at last count.
  • lkeigwinlkeigwin Posts: 16,892 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree with Ben.
    Lance.
    Coin Photography Services / Everyman Registry set / BHNC #213
  • AhrensdadAhrensdad Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭
    I figure my downside risk is $900 lost if I end up with nothing. But the upside, well....I'd take my chances at the 67.
    Successful BST Transactions with: WTCG, Ikenefic, Twincam, InternetJunky, bestday, 1twobits, Geoman x4, Blackhawk, Robb, nederveit, mesquite, sinin1, CommemDude, Gerard, sebrown, Guitarwes, Commoncents05, tychojoe, adriana, SeaEagleCoins, ndgoflo, stone, vikingdude, golfer72, kameo, Scotty1418, Tdec1000, Sportsmoderator1 and many others.


    Please visit my website Millcitynumismatics.com
  • DentuckDentuck Posts: 3,819 ✭✭✭
    I'm guaranteed the Good-4. So in effect, I already own it. Let's call it a $1,000 coin. The question boils down to: Am I willing to pony up $1,000 to enter a lottery whose prize is a $75,000 coin? 50/50 odds seem pretty good.


  • sbeverlysbeverly Posts: 962 ✭✭✭
    50% Odds are pretty good.
    Positive transactions with Cladiator, Meltdown, ajbauman, LeeG, route66,DennisH,Hmann,FilamCoins,mgoodm3,terburn88,MrOrganic, weg,dcarr,guitarwes,Zubie,Barndog,wondercoin,braddick,etc...
  • GeomanGeoman Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭
    With those odds - I'd take the chance for the MS67FB coin!
  • notwilightnotwilight Posts: 12,864 ✭✭✭
    you have a 50% chance of a many fold increase in value. Anyone with basic math skills should choose a box. --Jerry
  • originalisbestoriginalisbest Posts: 5,918 ✭✭✭✭
    Gotta go for the box. As doh said, you make it an nice, original XF-45 and then the decision becomes much tougher.
  • guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,257 ✭✭✭

    gotta take the chance. Put it all on black and let it roll.

    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
  • crypto79crypto79 Posts: 8,623 ✭
    I would let you go first and i would pick secondimage
  • braddickbraddick Posts: 23,758 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Better put: Would you risk* 1K for a 50/50 shot at 125K?

    Many gamblers love odds that give them a 50/50 chance at doubling their money. Imagine the opportunity you provided?

    And, as Norm on "Cheers" once stated, "gambling is always fun when there is no risk involved."
    *When it is someone else's coin- the GD04 along with the MS67, there is no risk really involved.

    peacockcoins

  • messydeskmessydesk Posts: 19,879 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Not even a year's supply of Turtle Wax in the undesirable box?
    John
    Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
  • tmcsr69tmcsr69 Posts: 1,307 ✭
    I'm a gambler-go for the box.
    Crazy old man from Missouri
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231 ✭
  • YogiBerraFanYogiBerraFan Posts: 2,390 ✭✭
    I would go for the G4. That spot is still open in the Whitman folder I started as a kid and I would love to fill that hole. Most of the early dimes are well circulated so it would fit in perfectly and the little boy in me would be very happy because it would complete the folder.
  • divecchiadivecchia Posts: 6,607 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I would go for the G4. That spot is still open in the Whitman folder I started as a kid and I would love to fill that hole. Most of the early dimes are well circulated so it would fit in perfectly and the little boy in me would be very happy because it would complete the folder. >>



    If this were my situation, I would do the same, but for me it would just be the value of the coin. I would risk the $1K and go for the $125K and pick a box.

    Donato
    Hobbyist & Collector (not an investor).
    Donato's Complete US Type Set ---- Donato's Dansco 7070 Modified Type Set ---- Donato's Basic U.S. Coin Design Set

    Successful transactions: Shrub68 (Jim), MWallace (Mike)
  • pakasmompakasmom Posts: 1,920 ✭
    Ever see that TV show, "Deal or No Deal?" Where some contestant, in the beginning, will say that all they've ever wanted in the whole world is their own (blank) and they need 40K to get it?
    Then they get to a guaranteed 125K and keep going, instead. Often ending up with nothing? I can see this as a question of greed...





    Oh yeah, forgot to add, - I'd go for the box! image
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would take the box if there were ten and nine were empty.

    It has more to do with probability than "collector's greed", whatever that is.
    My Box of 20: https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/box-20/ryks-gold-box-20/17132
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 24,275 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The expected value of the box is much higher than the sure thing value of the G4 dime. Take the chance and go for the box.
    All glory is fleeting.
  • ponderitponderit Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'd go for the box; I like mine shiney image
    Successful BST transactions with Rob41281, crazyhounddog, Commoncents, CarlWohlford, blu62vette, Manofcoins, Monstarcoins, coinlietenant, iconbuster, RWW,Nolawyer, NewParadigm, Flatwoods, papabear, Yellowkid, Ankur, Pccoins, tlake22, drddm, Connecticoin, Cladiator, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty
  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It all depends upon if the MS67 coin is actually in one of the boxes or if both remaining boxes are empty and one is being scammed. If the boxes could be opened for inspection after the choice is made then that is one thing, but if they cannot then that is another.
    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The more I think about it, I would be very concerned about the financial well-being of someone who would not sacrifice $1000 for a 50-50 chance at $100,000 (or thereabouts), and, again, this has nothing to do with coins.
    My Box of 20: https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/box-20/ryks-gold-box-20/17132
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,954 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are we allowed to shake the boxes first?image

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • airplanenutairplanenut Posts: 22,105 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's basic statistics. The expected value of taking the G4 is, say $1000. The expected value from the choice of the other two (50% odds for either the $0 or $100k coin) is $50k. Therefore, the value of the choice of two boxes is 50 times that of taking the G4 coin, and is the statistically sound decision.
    JK Coin Photography - eBay Consignments | High Quality Photos | LOW Prices | 20% of Consignment Proceeds Go to Pancreatic Cancer Research
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,954 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It's basic statistics. The expected value of taking the G4 is, say $1000. The expected value from the choice of the other two (50% odds for either the $0 or $100k coin) is $50k. Therefore, the value of the choice of two boxes is 50 times that of taking the G4 coin, and is the statistically sound decision. >>



    Yup. Basic probability calcultion.image

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • FairlanemanFairlaneman Posts: 10,419 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A box because I really do not care for Mercs in that low of a grade. Basically nothing is better than a Merc in that grade. No greed just preference.

    Ken
  • DIMEMANDIMEMAN Posts: 22,403 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'll take the box because I really don't want to end up with a G4 16-D.
  • IrishMikeyIrishMikey Posts: 1,561 ✭✭✭
    It's not greed, it is basic math. Go for the box!image
  • IrishMikeyIrishMikey Posts: 1,561 ✭✭✭


    << <i>It all depends upon if the MS67 coin is actually in one of the boxes or if both remaining boxes are empty and one is being scammed. If the boxes could be opened for inspection after the choice is made then that is one thing, but if they cannot then that is another. >>



    TomB is a bit of a cynic....
  • deviousdevious Posts: 1,690 ✭
    Simple, thanks for the giveaway. I will volunteer to take the G4. You can keep your MS67. Check your PMs for my mailing address. imageimageimage
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,796 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Harder question...

    There are 3 boxes... one known to have the 67fb, one known to have the G4, and one known to have nothing. You get to choose a box. Before seeing what you chose, the host chooses one of the other two boxes, opens it, and shows it contains either nothing or the G4. Then he/she asks you... Would you like to switch your choice?

    Do you switch!? >>


    This is starting to get into basic games theory, but for this discussion, there are two 0's (the G4 and the "nothing") and one large score. In your scenario, the odds of you getting the $100,000 score if you go for it are unchanged, but now, the downside for not trying is zero, not the G4. Again, if there were eight boxes left, I would still take the chance (instead of the G4 or nothing).
    My Box of 20: https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/box-20/ryks-gold-box-20/17132
  • RampageRampage Posts: 9,436 ✭✭✭✭
    I would take the sure thing and take the G4. image I am not greedy, nor do I have the guts. image
  • UncleJoeUncleJoe Posts: 2,531 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Harder question...

    There are 3 boxes... one known to have the 67fb, one known to have the G4, and one known to have nothing. You get to choose a box. Before seeing what you chose, the host chooses one of the other two boxes, opens it, and shows it contains either nothing or the G4. Then he/she asks you... Would you like to switch your choice?

    Do you switch!? >>



    Yes!

    Joe.
  • okracerokracer Posts: 436 ✭



    .....Dang!.....my box was empty!......

    ......I collect old stuff......
  • ocon4008ocon4008 Posts: 1,703
    I will take what's behind door number 2 monty.image
  • mgoodm3mgoodm3 Posts: 17,497 ✭✭✭
    Remember to pay your taxes on your new coin... That 100k coin will come with a large tax bill.
    coinimaging.com/my photography articles Check out the new macro lens testing section
  • ponderitponderit Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I will take what's behind door number 2 monty.image >>



    Don't forget about the lovely Carol Maroll...
    Successful BST transactions with Rob41281, crazyhounddog, Commoncents, CarlWohlford, blu62vette, Manofcoins, Monstarcoins, coinlietenant, iconbuster, RWW,Nolawyer, NewParadigm, Flatwoods, papabear, Yellowkid, Ankur, Pccoins, tlake22, drddm, Connecticoin, Cladiator, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.... Cheers, RickO
  • CEOGBOSECEOGBOSE Posts: 377
    I'll take my chances and go for the big prize.
    Greg Bose
    CoinSpace.com Founder
    www.coinspace.com
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    if it's a free shot, I take the chance. If I paid any significant money for the chance, I take the sure thing. the way you phrased it, it's a gift, and so voted "Choose"

    PS: either way, I'm selling the dime and buying a Rare coin

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • renomedphysrenomedphys Posts: 3,599 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The show was called "Let's Make a Deal"

    I used to watch it, back when there were only three channels, and the other two didn't count.

    Empty Nest Collection
    Matt’s Mattes

  • lordmarcovanlordmarcovan Posts: 43,501 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The odds are pretty damn good. And yet this would be a difficult decision for me.

    Great hypothetical, there.

    Edit to add: after mulling it over and considering my current financial situation, I took the sure thing (the bird in hand) and went with the G4.

    I am not surprised to find myself in the minority. Like I said, that would be a difficult choice for me if it were presented in actuality.

    But oh, it would be a nice dilemma to face.

    Explore collections of lordmarcovan on CollecOnline, management, safe-keeping, sharing and valuation solution for art piece and collectibles.
  • lkeneficlkenefic Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ... this is a no brainer... take the 50/50 shot at teh MS67 coin
    Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;

    Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,796 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>if it's a free shot, I take the chance. If I paid any significant money for the chance, I take the sure thing. the way you phrased it, it's a gift, and so voted "Choose"

    PS: either way, I'm selling the dime and buying a Rare coin >>


    I would pay $1000 for a 50-50 shot at $100,000. How many times can I do it? image
    My Box of 20: https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/box-20/ryks-gold-box-20/17132
  • lkeneficlkenefic Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That's just the thing... you're technically not "paying" anything. You started out with nothing and have a 33% chance of $1000; a 33% chance at $100k; or a 33% chance at 0...
    Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;

    Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
  • QuarterCollectorQuarterCollector Posts: 1,384 ✭


    << <i>I'm not sure it's greed, but it's risk/reward. Who cares about a good 16-D? It's totally worth the chance at a 67FB. If the choices were a PCGS XF45 1916-D, the 67FB and an empty box I might have to think twice because an XF45 is still an awfully nice coin... >>



    I also agree with Ben
  • machoponchomachoponcho Posts: 355 ✭✭✭
    Tell you what. Since I'd have nothing invested in this other than some time, I'd have to go for the 16-D in 67FB. If I get the empty box, I have no regrets. The difference between zero and $1,000 is not as great as the difference between $1,000 and

    *does a quick check of the bluesheet*

    $85,000+
    I have existed since the creation of this world and will exist until its end. Only my form will change. For these 80 human life years, I have the benefit of having a functioning body and consciousness. I will not waste this opportunity.
  • ambro51ambro51 Posts: 13,771 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No matter what you got in whatever box Perry Hall would tell you it was a counterfeit image

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