Current economic circumstances have caused me to pass on a coin that I may otherwise have purchased
RYK
Posts: 35,800 ✭✭✭✭✭
Here's the scenario. A lovely type coin is offered for a sale by a well-known dealer, from the collection of a well-known and respected active collector. There is no question that it is high-end, but the price is extremely strong, as well. Six months ago, I would have been all over it. Today, I feel a whole lot less comfortable and, as a result, considerably more price-conscious. Consequently, I pass. At a price about 15-20% lower, I would have bought it.
If other folks are thinking the same way, the price of coins will go down. If I am an outlier, the rest of you will be ending up with coins that I might have otherwise purchased. Either way, everyone is a winner.
If other folks are thinking the same way, the price of coins will go down. If I am an outlier, the rest of you will be ending up with coins that I might have otherwise purchased. Either way, everyone is a winner.
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There are some a group of collectors still buying strong. There's a group that's just afraid to buy any coin. And there's a group like you willing to buy, but more price conscious.
BTW- This thread is worthless w/out pictures, expecially if you already passed on it
<< <i>RYK, you are about average in my book.
There are some a group of collectors still buying strong. There's a group that's just afraid to buy any coin. And there's a group like you willing to buy, but more price conscious.
BTW- This thread is worthless w/out pictures, expecially if you already passed on it
I passed on it for now. If I am feeling more comfortable about coins after Friday night's Scotsman auction and the Silver Dollar Show, I might unpass on Monday morning.
Edit: I also do not want to label a friendly seller's coin as too expensive. It's bad coin karma to do so.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Always tell yourself "there are lots more where those came from".
Don't try to convince yourself otherwise.
Just let it go. Price conscious is a good place for a consumer. Being unconscious of prices is unconscionable.
The problem seems to be that owners of these coins want to keep them.
Examples: the scarcer bust halves, in top pop, or within the condition census, sold well above market levels at the ANA in August, but none have been offered since then.
No pq early dollars in AU 58 or better have hit the market.
Only one high end bust quarter is presently for sale, at a dealers web site. It is priced way above market levels.
I have previously noted that I am a buyer of almost any scarcer CBH in PCGS 65 or better.
I agree with most posters, that prices will remain at the present level, or lower, in the near future. But I am not seeing any( or just a few) nice coins for sale.
The question is: At some point will there be a glut of nice material when the economy recovers, people are spending more freely again and potential sellers will decide it's a good time to start selling again? Maybe only then would we consistently see lower prices across the board.
I wonder how many of those "strong hands" aren't so strong anymore after the financial disruptions of the past few weeks. Look for more nice material to hit the market in a few months. They will try to clear out the second rate stuff first. This is not the time to be the "greater fool."
<< <i>I still wonder how the prices went so high given the media has reported the economy as being horrible for the last 8 years. >>
The media reports and the stock market, price of gold, incomes, price of homes, etc. were disconnected for much of that time period.
I got a kick out of this AP headline today:
Retail sales plunge 1.2 percent in September
To me, a decline of 1.2 percent is a modest one, not a "plunge". Fear mongering by the media is exacerbating the financial turmoil, IMO.
First line in the article:
Retail sales fell off a cliff in September, plunging by the largest amount in three years as worried consumers shunned the malls and auto showrooms in the midst of the country's financial meltdown.
More of the same crap...
<< <i>To me, a decline of 1.2 percent is a modest one, not a "plunge". Fear mongering by the media is exacerbating the financial turmoil, IMO. >>
If you thought the Great Depression was bad, think about how bad it would have been if they had CNBC and 24-hour cable news...
Why run when a great coin comes up?
What's the coin, Mr. Steeler?
Just my two cents.
Seth
<< <i>
Just my two cents.
Seth >>
Catalogued according to price.
If you think the coin will drop in price then it may have been a good decision to not purchase but of course someone else may very well purchase it before it drops in price. Me thinks you must not have wanted it badly enough.
<< <i>[I got a kick out of this AP headline today:
Retail sales plunge 1.2 percent in September
To me, a decline of 1.2 percent is a modest one, not a "plunge". Fear mongering by the media is exacerbating the financial turmoil, IMO.
>>
Quite true. Similarly, holiday shopping seasons are never average. If they are even a tiny fraction less than last year, it is always reported as being some kind of national disaster.
Is there a soda pop and beer bottle and can deposit law in Missouri?
If there is, you can hit the roadsides and median strips and pick up a little extra cash when you redeem them.
You wouldn't have to worry about paying a lot for a coin and have it drop in value, because you'd be buying it with free money anyway. See?
If you don't want your friends and neighbors seeing you walk along the road with a plastic trash bag half full of cans, wear a halloween mask of Obama or McCain.
Ray
<< <i>I've switched my current focus from my core collection of quality AU bust half dimes to my secondary collection of inexpensive circulated half dimes in an LOC album. I still get the fix of coin collecting and am not dumping loads of money into coins. I'm very comfortable buying a $50 coin here and there even in a less than stable economy. At the same time I am padding my savings with money that would normally have been spent on the core collection. >>
I am actually doing the opposite. I am not buying squat. I am saving up
for the right coin that i like. It has to have all the right qualities. I recently posted
a 1865-S lib half eagle i thought about buying but when i came back to
it later in the week i realized it was not crusty enough. It lacked a patina.
In others words cleaned up and i realized it was not right for me.
(maybe it was not "cleaned".. but you know what I mean. I want that
dirty gold look that says I am 150 years old and circulated".)
patience. patience.
All cash right now-----------------NEVER.
<< <i>Here's the scenario. A lovely type coin is offered for a sale by a well-known dealer, from the collection of a well-known and respected active collector. There is no question that it is high-end, but the price is extremely strong, as well. Six months ago, I would have been all over it. Today, I feel a whole lot less comfortable and, as a result, considerably more price-conscious. Consequently, I pass. At a price about 15-20% lower, I would have bought it.
If other folks are thinking the same way, the price of coins will go down. If I am an outlier, the rest of you will be ending up with coins that I might have otherwise purchased. Either way, everyone is a winner.
(Like a lot of people) I think that you are letting emotion get the better of you. You're young enough that things like a dip in prices shouldn't worry you that much. That's not to question your decision, but rather understand what I suspect is driving it. Respectfully...Mike
<< <i>Apparently, your decision to pass revealed more about the coin than about the economy. >>
No, I think I will order it on Monday. The activity at the Scotsman auction made me feel a little more confident about the state of economy vis-a-vis the coin market.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5