When dealing with Numismatic Truths, should a dealer take credit when the market acts like it is des
Longacre
Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
I was reading a blog by a well-known dealer. In the blog, he offered to title it, "It's my blog, and I will brag if I want to". The blog outlined how this dealer predicted correctly that early quarter eagles would be on fire, and how he suggested to make buys years ago. I like this dealer, and he is obviously an expert in the market.
Then I read a response from a very prominent board member here, related to the thread about the blog. This board member stated,
"The smaller sized coins seem to lag their more popular bigger siblings. Same thing could be said for seated half dimes and dimes compared to seated quarters and halves. They eventually catch up but the bigger coin, even if not quite as rare, commands more attention all things being equal. Hence no surprise that $10 early bust gold has paved the path for the smaller denominations."
Like some things in life, there are things called Numismatic Truths, which are basic facts that cannot be disputed, and which are almost certain to occur. In real life, we know that two objects of different weights will fall from a tree at the same rate of speed. Similarly, like the board member says, the Numismatic Truth that smaller coins are less popular than bigger coins, and they lag the market of their big brothers, only to eventually catch up in the marketplace.
Should a dealer take credit in a prediction of what amounts to a Numismatic Truth, when the market is simply acting like it is destined to?
Then I read a response from a very prominent board member here, related to the thread about the blog. This board member stated,
"The smaller sized coins seem to lag their more popular bigger siblings. Same thing could be said for seated half dimes and dimes compared to seated quarters and halves. They eventually catch up but the bigger coin, even if not quite as rare, commands more attention all things being equal. Hence no surprise that $10 early bust gold has paved the path for the smaller denominations."
Like some things in life, there are things called Numismatic Truths, which are basic facts that cannot be disputed, and which are almost certain to occur. In real life, we know that two objects of different weights will fall from a tree at the same rate of speed. Similarly, like the board member says, the Numismatic Truth that smaller coins are less popular than bigger coins, and they lag the market of their big brothers, only to eventually catch up in the marketplace.
Should a dealer take credit in a prediction of what amounts to a Numismatic Truth, when the market is simply acting like it is destined to?
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
0
Comments
WOW!!! Somma you brothers are some deep thinkers. I have a hard time keepin' up.
PS: Who is “Numismatic Truth” and why is his hand on my wallet?
everybody wants the credit
nobody wants the blame
As far as items lagging the market, I was waving the flag on gem 19th century type coins from 2002-2006 and finally got tired of waving the flag against the constant pounding of REGISTRY set mania. Well, cooler heads prevailed in 2007-2008 and nice type is now a leader instead of a laggard. Took long enough.
roadrunner
<< <i>I do not believe that the small coins ever really catch up with the larger ones (for the design), so I dispute the Numismatic Truth, as stated. >>
Me too.
Of course the big coin and small coin have about the same acceleration when dropped from a tree. Their speed varies over time. If the big one hits you on the head it will feel like it got to terminal velocity and if it had then its speed wouldn't vary much over time and would be a great deal different than the little coin, probably. Even on a coin board physical laws must be obeyed.
<< <i>I do not believe that the small coins ever really catch up with the larger ones (for the design), so I dispute the Numismatic Truth, as stated. >>
There tends to be more demand for larger coins but frequently the
supply is smaller. Smaller coins tend to be smaller denominations
and people can (and do) afford to set more aside.
<< <i>There tends to be more demand for larger coins but frequently the
supply is smaller. Smaller coins tend to be smaller denominations
and people can (and do) afford to set more aside. >>
In colonials it tends to be just about exactly the opposite of that, with the smaller denominations in almost every series rarer than the larger ones.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I paid $300 for it at Goldberg's auction recently. Still can't believe it.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
and
what is he predicting now
It's great to be able to predict the future
that he doesn't know where the market is going
that seems more truthful to me